[bratticus]

Will the price of oil hit $200 or will there be a huge wave of defaults? In 2008 the price only got to $147 before businesses using that oil threw the towel in and the resulting demand destruction cause a price collapse followed by a stock market collapse. Why should 2011 be any different?

[AdTheNad]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bratticus', 'W')ill the price of oil hit $200 or will there be a huge wave of defaults? In 2008 the price only got to $147 before businesses using that oil threw the towel in and the resulting demand destruction cause a price collapse followed by a stock market collapse. Why should 2011 be any different?

[dsula]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', 'V')olts and Leafs for everyone!

[bratticus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdTheNad', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bratticus', 'W')ill the price of oil hit $200 or will there be a huge wave of defaults? In 2008 the price only got to $147 before businesses using that oil threw the towel in and the resulting demand destruction cause a price collapse followed by a stock market collapse. Why should 2011 be any different?

[bratticus]

There will be no $200 oil because the economy will collapse again before that price is reached. Mainstream media will blame the collapse on any number of random events again.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]‘Peak Demand,’ Yes, But Not the Nice Kind
By Chris Nelder / Friday, March 5th, 2010

Very simply, when oil got to $120 a barrel it cut into real productivity, and forced the world’s most developed economies to shrink. At $147, it wreaked serious damage. ... the new normal will be cycles of bumping our heads against the supply ceiling, falling dazed to the floor, rising back to our knees, then finally standing, only to bump our heads against the ceiling once more.

[Sys1]

"$200 Oil or Bust?"

We will have both!

[anador]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', '
')Volts and Leafs for everyone!

[mos6507]

My bold prediction is that oil will not hit $200 due to this current spate of above-ground black-swans. We may never hit it if the economy runs off the rails over $150 anyway.

[Timo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bratticus', 'W')ill the price of oil hit $200 or will there be a huge wave of defaults? In 2008 the price only got to $147 before businesses using that oil threw the towel in and the resulting demand destruction cause a price collapse followed by a stock market collapse. Why should 2011 be any different?

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Timo', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bratticus', 'W')ill the price of oil hit $200 or will there be a huge wave of defaults? In 2008 the price only got to $147 before businesses using that oil threw the towel in and the resulting demand destruction cause a price collapse followed by a stock market collapse. Why should 2011 be any different?

[Pops]

I hate to say never – KSA could go *poof* or Israel could get righteous and incinerate the whole region – but I don't think it would reach $200 at a slow grind.

Of course, I'm also of the opinion the 99ers are, for all intents, out of the job market for good and their elimination means the next rung up on the economic scale is somewhat more immune to food/energy inflation (notice I said "somewhat") meaning, perhaps, they might be able to withstand $200/bbl.

So never say never...

[eXpat]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sys1', '&')quot;$200 Oil or Bust?"

We will have both!

[bratticus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'I') hate to say never – KSA could go *poof* or Israel could get righteous and incinerate the whole region – but I don't think it would reach $200 at a slow grind.

[anador]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', 'V')olts and Leafs for everyone!

[Outcast_Searcher]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bratticus', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AdTheNad', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bratticus', 'W')ill the price of oil hit $200 or will there be a huge wave of defaults? In 2008 the price only got to $147 before businesses using that oil threw the towel in and the resulting demand destruction cause a price collapse followed by a stock market collapse. Why should 2011 be any different?

[Daniel_Plainview]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eXpat', ' ')I don´t think that we will reach $200, although I think is highly likely we will see $140 or $150.

[Beery]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('anador', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', '
')Volts and Leafs for everyone!

[Xenophobe]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Beery', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('anador', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', '
')Volts and Leafs for everyone!

[Adelaidewonderer]

From memory, when the oil price hit $147 here in australia, the petrol got to about $1.70 a litre here. If Oil was to get to $200 a barrel, I suspect petrol would hit about $2.20. I think most people were feeling it at least a bit back in 2008, but in theory it will probably only add $20 extra (40 litres @ 50 cents extra) to the weekly fuel bill from 2008, which aint too much.

So it may shrink some demand at the fringes, but generally people can wear it. Add that to the fact that supplies are tighter than 2008, and its going to be hard to see too much demand destruction from $200 oil.

[Geodesic]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dsula', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Xenophobe', 'V')olts and Leafs for everyone!