[Newfie]

My first post. Well, my editing has not improved.

Re: This week we're looking like fools
by Newfie » Fri Nov 30, 2007 9:44 am

Recently - some where - I read a brief article on "denial." It is a unnecessary human trait that, on a daily basis, lets us over look the misdeeds and shortcomings in ourselves and those close to us. It can also go too far and then we get into trouble - as in excessive gambling "I'll just win it back."

My 2 cents. Unfortunately, in our connected "global village" we can also have a sort of collective denial. The DOT.COM bust was one example. The recent sub-prime fiasco is another. Simple common sense would have told you it was too good to be true. Yet about 6 months before the dot.com collapse some "expert" ((financial rocket scientist)) predicted the market would go through 4,000 because the "market paradigm" had changed.

My point? Stand back, look at the big picture, trust your long view, realize that in general we are run by the wisdom of crowds (and that crowds elected GWB.)

Personally I'm convinced that I can not predict the short term future with any accuracy. Yet I am pretty sure that things are winding down, we are not investing sufficiently in the future, and we are breeding ourselves to death. Take the long view. I find that tough to do because I want to rush out and "fix" things. But I can't. Very frustrating and against my upbringing. Ditto my wife. Sigh.

Wasn't Casandra considered a fool?

[SilentRunning]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Sat Mar 28, 2009 12:05 am
I am Silent Running - I live in Upstate NY, on a plot of land that could be turned into a doomstead. We're not yet ready for peak oil, but I have started making plans and putting some of them into action.

I've been super-insulating the house. I've created a small cache of dry-food stuffs. The wife and my grown kids are interested in growing some crops - but we're all newbies at it.

My hope is that - if it comes to it - we'll be able to scratch out a living when we need to.

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Repent', 'I') read, and wrote, and was dissed and called a troll.

[MD]

effectively-breaking-through-po-denial-t8047.html
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '1'). Present irrefutable facts. As much as possible, choose facts that have have no counter argument available.
2. Extract conclusions from the listener. Do not define outcomes for them.

Here is the order I would present the facts:
1. Mega field production, percentage of total, and age of fields. Reference Matthew Simmons (I have the link at home and will paste it in later).
2. Single field production modeling(basic curve, examples of specific field history, texas is best, links anyone?)
3. New projects coming on line (petroleum review mega projects, link later).
4. Growth in demand projections(IEA, etc.)
5. Impact of historical oil shocks.

That's all the time I have at the moment. Please expand on this and comment. We all need help in this area, I think.

I doubt the "tough love" or "confrontational" approach common with addiction denials is helpful here. That's just my very uneducated opinion, I would really like some expertise to weigh in on this issue.

[americandream]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', 'h')ttp://peakoil.com/forums/effectively-breaking-through-po-denial-t8047.html
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '1'). Present irrefutable facts. As much as possible, choose facts that have have no counter argument available.
2. Extract conclusions from the listener. Do not define outcomes for them.

Here is the order I would present the facts:
1. Mega field production, percentage of total, and age of fields. Reference Matthew Simmons (I have the link at home and will paste it in later).
2. Single field production modeling(basic curve, examples of specific field history, texas is best, links anyone?)
3. New projects coming on line (petroleum review mega projects, link later).
4. Growth in demand projections(IEA, etc.)
5. Impact of historical oil shocks.

That's all the time I have at the moment. Please expand on this and comment. We all need help in this area, I think.

I doubt the "tough love" or "confrontational" approach common with addiction denials is helpful here. That's just my very uneducated opinion, I would really like some expertise to weigh in on this issue.

[KingM]

I'm far less doomerish in the short term than I was when I first joined. It's hard to look at what amounted to a decade of BAU, with things better now than they were ten years ago, and not feel like maybe you were too pessimistic.

I still believe that fossil fuels will eventually run out (how could they not?), but think that the day of reckoning will be slower in arriving, allowing for some transition.

Is civilization steady state? No. There has never been a period of history that was stable for more than a few generations, and there's no question that the world of 500 years in the future will be unrecognizable from today's, and quite possibly in nightmarish ways, but I'm not sure that's different from any other given 500 years stretch of history.

[ralfy]

The issue isn't about running out of oil but the effects of production not meeting demand. More points can be seen here:

"7 things everyone knows about energy that just ain't so (2013 Edition)"

http://www.resilience.org/stories/2013- ... 13-edition

[Subjectivist]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ralfy', 'T')he issue isn't about running out of oil but the effects of production not meeting demand. More points can be seen here:

"7 things everyone knows about energy that just ain't so (2013 Edition)"

http://www.resilience.org/stories/2013- ... 13-edition