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Page added on April 5, 2013
World`s population will stop growing in 2050
Using research gained from monitoring world population trends for the last 110 years, investigators at the Autonomous University of Madrid predict that the number of people on Earth will level off around the year 2050. This report mirrors statements from the United Nations, forecasting a leveling off of population growth in the decades to come.
The world currently has over 7 billion people, a number that has been rising drastically since the world reached its first billion in the year 1804. For each additional billion people added to the population it took 123, 33, 14, 13, 12 and 13 years to finally reach 7 billion in 2012, respectively.
The UN estimates that with high fertility the world will reach 15.8 billion people by the year 2100 and if fertility rates drop the population could plunge below current numbers to 6.8 billion.
The current study utilized algorithms and equations based in particle physics to side with the lower UN estimate. They predicted either a standstill of population or even a slight drop in population by the year 2010.
“We started with a general situation where both the birth rate and mortality rate were high, with slow growth favouring the former,” Félix F. Muñoz, UAM researcher and co-author of the project said, “but the mortality rate fell sharply in the second half of the 20th century as a result of advances in healthcare and increased life expectancy and it seemed that the population would grow a lot.”
However, the past three decades have also seen a steep drop-off in the number of children being born worldwide.
“Overpopulation was a spectre in the 1960s and 70s but historically the UN’s low fertility variant forecasts have been fulfilled,” Muñoz highlighted.
Interestingly, in 1992 it was predicted that the earth’s population by 2010 would be 7.17 billion people, but the actual number was 6.8 billion. Globally, the fertility rate had also dropped by 40 percent since 1950.
“This work is another aspect to be taken into consideration in the debate, although we do not deal with the significant economic, demographic and political consequences that the stabilisation and ageing of the world population could entail,” Muñoz concluded.
The research published in the journal Simulation can be found here.
6 Comments on "World`s population will stop growing in 2050"
BillT on Fri, 5th Apr 2013 12:41 pm
Actually the die-off will just be much faster than births. Deaths will be in the hundreds of millions per year instead of the few million of today. More babies will be still-born or miscarried as the pollution and radiation spreads to everything.
GregT on Fri, 5th Apr 2013 4:22 pm
A worldwide food crisis has the potential to wipe out billions of people in a matter of months, as does a pandemic.
DC on Fri, 5th Apr 2013 4:41 pm
None of these studies are very credible. The only way human population will stop growing is when it is no longer physically possible for it to do so. Whether its disease, starvation, lack of room, whathaveyou, well just keep growing the population till we no longer can. I will see the worlds population double in my lifetime easily, and I dont consider myself very old. A study can say anything it wants about the future, but that really means very little unless you look at our past behaviour.
And what have been doing for the last 10,000 years? Increasing the population. Wars, the odd plague slowed us down from time to time, but every single year since we took the to start recording such things, weve been adding to the population. Yes, some local areas, Germany, Japan, a few others, have actually stopped growing, but even most countries that have zero or slightly neg pop. growth, simply import surplus humans from other areas in order to keep growing.
All these studies saying population will ‘level’ out of its own accord in the vaguely near-future are blowing smoke up our backsides. Not unlike the energy shills declaring amerika will be ‘energy independent’ in the vaguely near future. Same group-different topics.
poaecdotcom on Fri, 5th Apr 2013 5:57 pm
Population is a direct function of available energy.
From bacteria in the petri dish to humans on the surface of Earth, reduce the energy and the carrying capacity will reduce in step.
I maintain that the human population curve will follow and lag the energy curves, specifically oil which fuels 95+% of the transport of our goods.
The population will tend towards the carrying capacity of the earth PRIOR to hydrocarbons (1-2 billion) and the pace of decline will follow the total net energy curve available to our species.
BUT, the kicker is that the energy we obtain on the margin today is fully dependent on our complex society to provide capital for the high cost ($$ and energy) ventures into tar sands, fracking, the Arctic etc.
And how is the global economy looking? One domino away from deflationary collapse (ask Japan, Greece uk, cyprus detroit etc.etc.)
No, in my opinion, even the low variant line above is EXTREMELY optimistic and these kind of ‘researched’ population projections pull the wool over the eyes of the poor masses.
Go Local!
dashster on Sat, 6th Apr 2013 3:15 am
Population growth is the one thing everyone can agree one, be it Peak Oilers, Cornucopians, Republicans, Democrats, young, old, men, women – just about everyone feels that it is nothing to worry about. I believe only China has tried to stop it, and looking at their population growth since the 1970’s, they have failed.
Kenz300 on Sat, 6th Apr 2013 1:43 pm
Too many people and too few resources. Endless population growth leads to more poverty, suffering and despair.
Access to family planning services needs to be available to all that want it.
Seems like the people that can least afford to provide food, water and shelter for themselves are having the most children. If you do not have a decent job you can not provide for a family.