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Page added on December 1, 2012
World Population Will Peak At 8.5 Billion In 2030
I write about this every now and then, because human fertility is falling faster then most demographers expect. Using the CIA Factbook for data, the present total fertility rate for the world is 2.47 births per woman that survives childbearing. Last year it was 2.50, and in 2006 it was 2.90. 2.10 is replacement rate. At the current trend, the world will be at replacement rate in 2022. That’s a lot earlier than most expect, and it makes me suggest that global population will top out at 8.5 Billion in 2030, lower and earlier than most expect.
Have a look at the Total Fertility Rate by group:
The largest nations for each cell are listed below the graph. Note Asian nations to the left, and African nations to the right.
Africa is so small, that the high birth rates have little global impact. Also, AIDS consumes their population, as do wars, malnutrition, etc.
The Arab world is also slowing in population growth. When Saudi Arabia is near replacement rate at 2.26, you can tell that the women are gaining the upper hand there, which is notable given the polygamy is permitted.
In the Developed world, who leads in fertility? Israel at 2.67. Next is the US at 2.06, slightly below replacement. We still grow from immigration.
Quoting from my prior piece, why is this happening? There are many reasons why the total fertility rate is declining:
- Educating females makes many of them want to have fewer kids, whether the reason is pain, effort, wanting to work outside the home, etc.
- Contraception is more widely available.
- The marriage rate is declining globally. Willingness to have children is positively correlated with marriage.
- Governments provide an illusion of support, commonly believed, that the government can support people in their old age, so people don’t have kids for old age support.
The rapidly slowing rate of childbearing will have global population peak in the early 2030s at a level in the lower 8 billions, unless there is some further change to attitudes on children that makes people have more or even fewer kids.
Some of those changes may come from:
- governments looking to stem a shrinking population that is causing a future problem with their social welfare programs. (Note: in general, whatever governments offer, people don’t have materially more kids. Once women are convinced that kids are more of a burden than an advantage, they do not easily shift from that view, even if that view is wrong.)
- Various religious leaders realizing that the women are not with the program of growing their ranks, where contraception has become quietly common. I am speaking mostly of Catholics and Muslims here.
- Abortion, especially for sex selection reasons becomes more or less common. Growth in future population depends heavily on the level of fertile women, and if they are being killed or not at birth in places like China, India, the satellite countries of the former Soviet Union, etc… fewer women means a lower growth rate, and unhappier societies 20+ years out.
As I close, I want to list a few nations that are below replacement rate, that would surprise some people:
- Bahrain
- Qatar
- Lebanon
- Azerbaijan
- Georgia
- Tunisia
- North Korea
- Uzbekistan
- Iran
- Brazil
And those the are close to replacement rate:
- Turkey
- Indonesia
- UAE
- Saudi Arabia (Wahabism is less strong than believed)
- India
- Mexico
- Argentina
One last point, because the demographics profession has been slow to pick up on these shifts, if present trends continue, within 10 years, I believe you will see a scad of articles talking about the likely leveling off of global population and even future shrinkage of global population, and the effects thereof. Always something to worry about…
7 Comments on "World Population Will Peak At 8.5 Billion In 2030"
Ken Nohe on Sat, 1st Dec 2012 3:47 am
What is getting more and more important concerning demography and is to some extent completely overlooked by articles like this one is the impact of economic factors on demography.
It is no hazard that the lowest fertility rate in the world, well below 1, is in Hong Kong which also happens to be the most densely populated place on earth. At some point, having kids become overly expensive and uneconomical. This is also true in Japan and in most places where urbanization is very high and let us expect that indeed as density increases, fertility rates will crash.
There also seems to be a clear drop of natality when countries suddenly become poorer due to extreme shocks like what happened after the breakup of the USSR. As during wars, people delay having children during times which are obviously unfavorable, hoping that things will get better later and at the very least return to pre-crisis levels. In this respect, it will be interesting to follow what happens in Greece to see if this bears out.
More generally, the more or less permanent crisis period we have entered since 2008 is impacting the young especially hard. With a high proportion of young people without jobs, staying with their parents and with very little future prospects, we can expect that fertility rates will fall quite dramatically in the coming years in most developed countries, and more surprisingly in what we consider less developed ones such as Tunisia. (But to my opinion, this is due to the fact that on social levels at least, if not material yet, they have almost completely catched up with the West.)
But then, there is the rest. No Africa is not “marginal” anymore and very close to crisis level in many of the new giant cities, little more than giant slums for some, which have exploded on the continent lately.
The population of India is also exploding as are many countries in Asia which cannot afford it. This is especially true of Indonesia which is wrecking its natural resources, among the richest in the world, at an accelerated pace. I know less well the conditions in South America, but Brazil is probably doing exactly the same, having the same tropical forest to exploit till its gone.
I do believe that global population will indeed stabilize and then crash in short order but this will have very little to do with purely demographic and social factors and everything to do with the economy.
It has been said before especially on this site but the explosion of population of the twentieth century was most probably closely linked to the oil boom. If that is true then it is most likely that peak oil will also mean peak population in short order!
BillT on Sat, 1st Dec 2012 4:15 am
The growth rate is going to be decreased by infant mortality and disease. Yes, falling economies will affect it by lowering the levels of available health care and nutrition, but good old disease is going to surge in the coming decade. I doubt we will ever see even 8 billion total. We have perhaps hit the peak in population also and may bounce for a few years until the negatives kick in.
Kenz300 on Sat, 1st Dec 2012 4:47 am
If only the world population would stabilize.
Around the world we have a food crisis, a water crisis, a fish stocks crisis, a phosphorous crisis, a climate change crisis, a financial crisis, a jobs crisis and an overpopulation crisis. Too many people chasing too few resources.
Every problem is made harder to solve with the worlds ever growing population. We add 80 million more mouths to feed, clothe and house every year putting more stress on the worlds resources and adding to the poverty, suffering and despair of millions.
The birth rate in the US has been dropping since the recession of 2008. If you can not provide for yourself you can not provide for a child. Many people have figured out that without a job you can not start a family.
Every country needs to develop a plan to balance its population with its resources, food, water, energy and jobs. Those that do not will be exporting their people and their problems.
Access to family planning resources needs to be available to all that want it.
poaecdotcom on Sat, 1st Dec 2012 7:34 am
The Second law of Thermodynamics dictates that energy tends to a lesser order.
Current Human population is a function of the one-time gift of ‘free’ high energy order in stored hydrocarbons.
Population is highly correlated to net energy use.
There is substantial evidence we are at or close to peak total NET energy, therefore we are at or close to peak population.
I believe that our complex society is one major sovereign default away from systemic collapse and projecting to 2030 is foolhardy for the best of us…..
rollin on Sat, 1st Dec 2012 4:47 pm
Population is not the problem, it’s how that population uses resources and fits the region that they live in. If the area is resource poor, low fertility and dry, it can’t support a large population. If the area is resource rich, has adequate water and is fertile it can uspport a large population– if the people are careful, conservative of land and other resources and do not try to live like highly developed industrialized countries. Developed and developing countries build clown cities and suburbs that use way more resources than can be supplied locally and then increase their population and resource use by vampiring the world and destroying the supportive eco-system. Then they worry about it after the fact. Are they kidding? Responsibility is apparently somebody else’s gig.
BillT on Sun, 2nd Dec 2012 1:32 am
The 310 million people in the Us use the resources of approximately 2,200,000,000 people. (2.2 billion ) or the combined population of China and India.
Guess who has to cut their use WAY WAY WAY down in coming years. Americans!
Earthprojects.info on Sun, 2nd Dec 2012 2:22 pm
We are looking at a decline in total human population by 75% by 2030. How we figure it:
1. Oil production gives rise to 7 billion.
2. Oil production peaks 2005 and plateaus.
3. Oil production starts declining 2015.
4. Oil production declines 5% year until it run out after (5%x20=100%) 20 yrs in 2035.
5. Unless we get our Ox teams back to work and our unemployed back on the farm behind the plow, where is the food production and distribution going to come from? There are no solar or CNG tractors that I am aware of.