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Page added on April 5, 2012
World population to reach 9.3bn by 2050
The world population of seven billion will increase to 9.3 billion by 2050, with most of the growth in big cities in Africa and Asia, the UN has projected.
The population division of the UN’s Economic and Social Affairs department said the planet’s urban population, now at 2.6 billion, will increase to 6.3 billion of a global total of 9.3 billion by 2050.
“The urban areas of the world are expected to absorb all the population growth expected over the next four decades while at the same time drawing in some of the rural population,” the UN said.
The demographic projection is meant as a tool to help government decision makers draw up policies dealing with population growth. The UN said big cities face constant challenges in providing jobs, housing, energy and infrastructure.
The largest increases in urban population are expected in India, China, Nigeria, Indonesia and the United States.
From 2010 to 2050, cities in India will grow by 497 million people, Chinese cities by 341 million, US cities by 103 million, Nigerian cities by 200 million and Indonesian cities by 92 million, the report said.
14 Comments on "World population to reach 9.3bn by 2050"
kiwichick on Fri, 6th Apr 2012 1:32 am
bet we won’t make it past 8,5 billion before collapsing
BillT on Fri, 6th Apr 2012 2:45 am
kiwichick, you are correct. I doubt we will even hit the 8 billion number. Why? That is about 10-12 years in the future and I don’t think the system that feeds all of us will survive that long. If the food system collapse’, we will not last long. Think Egypt last year. Think America with 40%+ unemployment, no government aid and salaries shrinking past necessities with food prices growing by double digits. When milk is $10 per gallon, bread $10 per loaf, meat gone from the menu, etc, there will be riots like the US has never seen. Remember that we are the best armed citizens in the world.
Kenz300 on Fri, 6th Apr 2012 4:21 am
Too many people and too few resources.
Birth rates are falling in the US and Europe due to the recession/depression.
These are not the high growth areas.
The middle east and Africa do not seem to reduce their birth rates to deal with the hardships. They are the high population growth areas.
Arthur on Fri, 6th Apr 2012 9:44 am
Here is a more realistic timeline:
August 2008 was Peak West. The subprime crisis was blamed, where in reality the economy could not generate enough wealth at oil prices of $147,- what followed was an economy on steroids with a tremendous increase in debt, first and foremost the US, which is entirely unsustainable with 10% fiscal deficits to begin with.
2015 will see the beginning of the real pain on a planetary scale, with mass starvation, provided there will be no war earlier, which is highly questionable.
There will never be 8 billion people on earth. The most pessimistic models come down to 2 billion in 2050 and finally 1 billion in 2080. Most casualties will occur in India, Africa and NW-Latin-America:
http://www.consumerenergyreport.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/food-security.jpg
Graph from leaked study of German Army peakoil study group.
If people want to prove that the holocaust did not happen, they have to be really fast, since in a couple of years nobody cares anymore.
Arthur on Fri, 6th Apr 2012 10:46 am
The timeline in my previous post is based on this model:
http://www.paulchefurka.ca/Population.html
I hope it is wrong but I am afraid it is not.
dsula on Fri, 6th Apr 2012 11:17 am
>>I hope it is wrong but I am afraid it is not.
I hope he’s right, but probably not. Food will quickly get “national security” status and will enjoy guaranteed resources assigned.
Arthur on Fri, 6th Apr 2012 1:15 pm
dsula, you are missing the point of the entire peak-everything story: there will be no such thing as “guaranteed resources”.
BillT on Fri, 6th Apr 2012 2:13 pm
Guaranteed resources? The US imports: 60% of its oil, 20% of it’s food, 100% of it’s rare earths, etc. We import about $2 trillion dollars worth of minerals, ores, oil, coal, etc. every year. There are no guarantees if a war breaks out. None. We cannot ramp up in time to prevent a disaster in the Us. One the Empire will not survive, nor will many Americans.
BillT on Fri, 6th Apr 2012 2:15 pm
http://www.worldsrichestcountries.com/top_us_imports.html
If you want an idea of how much we depend on the world for our lifestyle…
dsula on Fri, 6th Apr 2012 6:40 pm
>> Guaranteed resources? The US imports: 60% of its oil, 20% of it’s food, 100% of it’s rare earths, etc.
I’m talking about die-off. With 7MB/day of domestic oil the US is sooo far away from starving it’s not even funny anymore. Granted standard of living will be much lower, but starving? No.
Kenz300 on Fri, 6th Apr 2012 7:14 pm
Every country needs to develop a plan to balance population, resources, food, water, energy and jobs. Those countries that do not will be exporting their populations.
Frank Kling on Fri, 6th Apr 2012 8:21 pm
Personally I do not see mass starvation in the immediate future unless there is an ecological collapse, which based on current trends is a distinct reality. I travel frequently to South America and the continent’s forests are being razed just as quickly as it can be burned or bulldozed. At current rates of loss, additional lands for human agricultural potential exist for another 15 to 20 years before it’s all gone.
oilforbreakfast on Fri, 6th Apr 2012 8:28 pm
This populaton forecast is actually extremely good news and shows a huge success in curbing population growth. In 1970 the worlds population was doubling every 35 years. Now we are projecting an increase of only 34% in 38 years. An amazing decrease in the rate of growth! Unfortunately it won’t last – as the world falls into poverty people will actually start having more children again so that we return to 1970 rates. Yes – no matter how bad things get, there will still be subsistence food that everyone can have 8 children again. So this article has everything wrong as do the people commenting here.
BillT on Sat, 7th Apr 2012 2:11 pm
dsula, and why do you ASSUME that there will be 7 million barrels per day of domestically produced oil? That is a huge assumption considering that every fraking well costs about $8 million and they need thousands of new wells every year to just keep production even. If the financial system collapses, many of the existing wells may be shut off and no new ones drilled, if the companies who own them go belly up. It appears that you have little idea of how interconnected everything is today.
Oilfor… maybe you should ask the African or Indian poor how populations survive on subsistence rations. It does so with huge infant and child death rates, and a short hard life for those who survive. Try living on the diet of an African or Indian for a year and then tell me that population will increase.