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Page added on February 16, 2015
William Catton’s warning
William Catton Jr., author of the seminal volume about our human destiny, Overshoot: The Ecological Basis of Revolutionary Change, died last month at age 88.
Catton believed that industrial civilization had sown the seeds of its own demise and that humanity’s seeming dominance of the biosphere is only a prelude to decline. His work foreshadowed later works such as Joseph Tainter’s The Collapse of Complex Societies, Richard Heinberg’s The Party’s Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies, and Jared Diamond’s Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Survive.
In Overshoot Catton wrote: “We must learn to relate personally to what may be called ‘the ecological facts of life.’ We must see that those facts are affecting our lives far more importantly and permanently than the events that make the headlines.”
He published those words in 1980, and now, it seems, at least some of those facts have made their way into the headlines in the form of climate change, soil erosion, fisheries collapse, species extinction, constrained supplies of energy and other critical resources, and myriad other problems that are now all too obvious.
But, even today, few people see the world as Catton did. Few realize how serious these problems are and how their consequences are unfolding right before us. Few understand what he called “the tragic story of human success,” tragic because that success as it is currently defined cannot be maintained and must necessarily unwind into decline owing to the laws of physics and the realities of biology. We can adjust to these realities or they will adjust us to them.
Perhaps the single keenest insight Catton had is that humans have become detritovores, organisms that live off the dead remains of other organisms. By this he meant the human dependence on fossil fuels which are the ancient dead remains of organisms transformed into oil, natural gas and coal.
It is the fate of detritovore populations to expand and contract with their supply of detritus. He likened modern humans to algae feeding on the rich surplus of nutrients from dead organic matter swept into a pond by spring rains and often multiplying so as to cover the entire pond with a green carpet. By summer, with the rush of spring nutrients depleted–nutrients which are like the one-time infusion of fossil fuels into human society–the algae population crashes, leaving mostly open water and sometimes just an uneven ribbon along the edge of the pond. It is a boom-bust population cycle well-known to biologists.
In 1980 it seemed as if this cycle might be mitigated by wise policy and serious, but achievable adjustments in the human way of life. By 2009 when Catton published his other book, Bottleneck: Humanity’s Impending Impasse, he felt that the time for major mitigation of the inevitable bust portion of the population cycle had passed.
So, why even write another book? Catton explained in the last paragraph of Bottleneck:
I hope by the time [my great-grandsons] become great-grandfathers themselves, their generation will be so conspicuously more enlightened than mine was and our forebears were that the world population of bottleneck survivors will have evolved social systems better able to be circumspect in the use of their planet and its vulnerable biosphere. If readers of this book come to share similar hopes, and contribute to instilling them in their descendants, my reasons for writing will have been justified.
This is a humble ambition compared to the cautious hope that flowed from Overshoot in 1980. And, it is important to note Catton’s emphasis on social systems for he was trained as a sociologist. He believed that despite our considerable technical prowess, our social system simply cannot contemplate making the drastic changes necessary to mitigate the downslope.
Perhaps the most important thing to note about Catton is that he did not blame anyone for the human predicament. To him that predicament is the natural outcome of evolutionary processes and the powers given to humans through those processes. That predicament is no more a product of conscious thought and intention than is the beating of our own hearts.
When I met and chatted with him for the one and only time in 2006, he was mildly jocular in the same way that his writing is, and he was upbeat in his attitude toward daily life, however disturbing the future may seem.
That was probably the product of a life spent in deep and patient study of the world around him, a world that yielded some its most hidden and important secrets to him. And, he had the satisfaction of having published those secrets so that they would not be secrets any more.
Overshoot may stand as the central text of the 20th century about the ecological fate of humankind. The book represents a missed opportunity in that so few people were able to hear what Catton had to say in 1980, and so few want to hear it now–even as the headlines are filled with the very precursors of the bottleneck he laments in his last major piece of writing.
13 Comments on "William Catton’s warning"
Makati1 on Mon, 16th Feb 2015 7:15 am
Cannot expect much more from bacteria in a petri dish can you? If anyone survives into the next century, I am very sure they will not live anywhere near today’s lifestyle. Possibly somewhere between the Iron Age and the Dark Ages levels?
But as they are not even born yet, they will not know what they are missing other than what they can see of the mountains of electronic rubbish that no longer functions and great towers of rotting concrete and steel along the ocean shores and rivers.
Davy on Mon, 16th Feb 2015 7:36 am
It has to be plain to anyone who has read a few basic books on ecology the precarious position man is in. One can rise the ladder of sophistication with these topics by studying PO, dynamic systems, and historic civilizations collapse. When one looks at modern man we see the telltale signs of overshoot in population levels and environmental destruction. We see the unintended consequences of the application of technology in a global complex society.
I keep coming back to that which should concern us the most and that is time frame. We are a time value species. We don’t live only in the here and now. We have a dualistic existential existence that lives in the future and dwells on the past. We put value on almost everything in the context of time. It is obvious a species growing such as humans in a finite world will encounter limits and diminishing returns. We see obvious examples of those limits now in macro predicaments. Yet, we are not yet at the stage of a bottleneck. We are in the vicinity of collapse but that could be years away.
Another ten years would make a mockery of the doomers and preppers here but the reality of that time frame is it is very short in historical and scientific context. We humans seem to be especially in tune to the immediate time value of within 1 year. Life has sped up with the increase in complexity and energy intensity. It once took months to go from Europe to a final home in the US now it takes hours. Our satisfactions of wants take a few days from amazon when in the past it took much longer.
This time distortion is critical to most of our discussions here because selective facts, agendas, and propaganda have the opportunity to coopt the truth. Reality becomes twisted by time value. The reality of the situation should be clear to the herd that we are in dire straits. We are approaching a time of massive upheaval yet the MSM and TPTB continue to preach all is well and all will be well. This can be achieved because normality still dominates. If our food supply gets insecure that will change likewise with fuel shortages. I guess this human condition has actually always been the case because we see prophets in the bible ranting to the cities of their impending doom only to be laughed at and rejected.
We are the prophets of old now. We are preaching change and upheaval. The problem with our message is time value. I feel this changing and the facts will be laid bare in the next year or two. The path will become clear even to the most hardened cornucopian and human exceptionalist that growth and complexity are dated. The greenies will see their shiny AltE world is a farce. AGW people will have to acknowledge an alternative BAU is not possible and there is no repairing the environment.
ghung on Mon, 16th Feb 2015 8:00 am
“He believed that despite our considerable technical prowess, our social system simply cannot contemplate making the drastic changes necessary to mitigate the downslope.”
A species that has spent virtually all of its developmental time on the rise hasn’t evolved for ‘downslope’ (AKA: contraction). In short, our social systems aren’t wired for responding to impending failure. Indeed, industrialism has pushed us to think and plan only in terms of growth, which has rewarded us fantastically, as individuals and as a species. Why, pray tell, think in any other way?
Dredd on Mon, 16th Feb 2015 9:00 am
The predominate conflation is to conflate denial with intelligent progress.
If it was a bumper sticker it would say “Ignore it and it will go away.”
That is the essence of our culture’s eye sight.
Rodster on Mon, 16th Feb 2015 11:05 am
One of the biggest challenges man faces when this experiment goes belly up is the change over to a NEW system. The best we can hope for is the dark ages.
If the new system entails BAU 2.0 then it’s GAME OVER, period.
The biggest problem I see in the switch to a new system is that all the global economies are highly complex and highly interconnected. That’s the problem when BAU goes belly up because pretty much every major economy has domesticated it’s population and introduced the “just in time” delivery system.
Look what’s been going on in Russia since the sanctions, they’ve had to find other food exporters to replace the ones they’ve lost.
I’m not totally convinced we make it out of this one because the supposed leaders are talking a good game but they keep piling on to maintain and support BAU.
Plantagenet on Mon, 16th Feb 2015 12:02 pm
Interesting that Catton himself thought it might take six generations for his idea of an ecological bottleneck to become self-evident.
That means we’ve got quite a bit of time until we hit the “bottleneck” that Catton was predicting.
Makati1 on Mon, 16th Feb 2015 7:03 pm
Plant, he is wrong on many levels. It will only take 24 hours if the missiles fly. And the Atomic Clock is 3 minutes until midnight once again.
Davy on Mon, 16th Feb 2015 7:12 pm
Nice try Planter. We are in a bottleneck situation now on multiple fronts. A bad move or an unlucky act of God and millions could potentially die. When a population is in overshoot to a sustainable carrying capacity as we clearly are anything can happen at any time.
theedrich on Tue, 17th Feb 2015 4:17 am
Regarding a potential “bad move” on our part causing millions to die: Currently most people think this might involve Russia and Ukraine. In fact, however, it is most unlikely that Putin will go insane. As a master chess player, he is playing the same game that North Korea has long played: threatening to go mad with nukes in order to intimidate the American State Department. The usual response is that the U.S. then typically caves in to the demands, grudgingly gives whatever the pseudo-crazies are asking for, and sweeps everything under the rug. After all, Ø told Vlad that after the 2012 election he would be more “flexible.” So, sure enough, Vlad waited patiently until the election (and his Olympics) was over and his window of opportunity opened, before attacking Ukraine. The European princelings are now terrified that their economic welfare may be impaired by Yankee anti-Putin sanctions. They are therefore hyping the idea of a global war cloud to gin up popular anti-American resistance, so they can sacrifice the Ukraine to the neo-Communist murderers in Russland and continue their own BAU. But it is precisely BAU that is the greatest threat.
Davy on Tue, 17th Feb 2015 6:37 am
Excellent comment Thee. I would say the reality of the situation is the Ukraine is an example of a failed state in the beginnings of that process. The realities of the situation is it will be divided up by the two powers pushing the conflict now. If the world is in descent then weak spots like the Ukraine will eventually be mopped up. The thought on all sides of the massive cost of a long term Ukraine problem will dissuade further conflict at some point.
When we see an economic down turn which have always been baked into the economic system we will see a reluctance to spend money on a problem like Ukraine. Yet, these problems don’t go away they have to be mopped up. Russia is the most likely candidate for a greater part of Ukraine. An economic crisis will either draw the US inward or be the end game of a last ditch global campaign of influence. Will the US choose to push this issue as a neocon end game? The EU will surely have to administer the western half of the Ukraine if the bump descent limps on. Yet, the EU may have failed economic states in its under belly to deal with (PIGS). How much can the EU do?
If one accepts we are in the bumpy descent then we see that these conflicts can’t be sustained or they are the black swan that destroys BAU. I imagine since the global financial concerns are the real force in charge behind the scenes in the West they will avoid something that destroys their wealth. Putin as the master chess champion will win a marginal victory but he will never recover what he lost in treasure. Oil prices will never recover and with that Russia will never recover.
The West should not crow because the beginning of the end is near for the Ponzi scheme of the western digital world in a bumpy descent of the real and physical. The global system is now at the point of stable disequilibrium but at any moment ready to bifurcate. The tensions are building slowly because of instabilities in the foundational elements to BAU of the oil complex in POD & ETP and the financial system in diminishing returns with debt monitorization. Ukraine will either be the trigger for BAU’s collapse or mopped up when the bumpy descent cause financial pain for all parties.
Davy on Tue, 17th Feb 2015 7:24 am
Check out this ZH article on the digital deathstar:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-02-16/moscow-based-security-firm-reveals-what-may-be-biggest-nsa-backdoor-exploit-ever
Mike989 on Tue, 17th Feb 2015 2:55 pm
So, Tillerson dumber then bacteria in a petri dish.
Then why do we also have Elon Musk.
Why is one dumber then a door nail, and the other is leading an Electric Revolution.
Mike989 on Tue, 17th Feb 2015 2:56 pm
Tillerson, supposed CEO of Exxon.
Soon to be fired?