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Page added on May 13, 2013
Why are birthrates falling around the world? Blame television
“I find it extraordinary that the massive global drop in human fertility has been so little noticed by the media,” writes Stanford geographer Martin Lewis, “escaping the attention of even highly educated Americans.”
Lewis has a fascinating, chart-heavy essay over at the Breakthrough Institute pointing out that birthrates are dropping rapidly almost everywhere around the world — with the exception of sub-Saharan Africa, mostly. Here’s a map of the current state of affairs:
One notable bit here is how many developing countries now have lower birthrates than even some European nations. “Chile (1.85 children per woman), Brazil (1.81), and Thailand (1.56) have lower birthrates than France (2.0), Norway (1.95), and Sweden (1.98),” Lewis writes.
The same goes for India. Back in 1968, biologist Paul Ehrlich famously warned about a coming population explosion in India that would lead to mass famine and catastrophe. Yet today, India’s fertility rate (2.5) is only slightly higher than the United States’ (2.1). In India’s southern states, the birthrate is actually below replacement level, meaning that the next generation will be smaller than the current one.
So what happened? Lewis examines a number of hypotheses, from rising incomes to growing female literacy. Those are all moderately correlated with the decline in birthrates and could help explain the shift. But, curiously enough, nothing seems to match up with the trends as neatly as the growth in TV ownership and media exposure:
This isn’t as bizarre as it seems. A 2009 paper (pdf) by Robert Jensen and Emily Oster found that the introduction of cable television “is associated with significant decreases in the reported acceptability of domestic violence towards women and son preference, as well as increases in women’s autonomy and decreases in fertility.” It’s far from certain that television alone is driving these changes, but the evidence is suggestive.
A separate 2008 study (pdf) by Eliana La Ferrara found that the popularity of soap operas seems to have had a similar effect in Brazil, where birthrates have dropped from from 6.25 to 1.81 in the past 50 years. The idea here is that television helps alter certain cultural norms that, in turn, lead to women choosing to have fewer kids. (Again, though, it’s possible that soap-opera exposure is simply an outgrowth of some other factor, like rising incomes.)
In any case, this is a story with big implications. Environmentalists have long warned that if the global population keeps soaring — we’re at about 7 billion right now — that’ll put a huge strain on the Earth’s natural resources. But in much of the world, the population is no longer soaring. And, if the soap-opera hypothesis is correct, birthrates in places like Africa might end up dropping far more rapidly and easily than anyone expects.
Further reading:
— How to fit 7 billion people on the planet. Note that a 2010 paper found that slowing population growth could provide “16-29% of the emissions reductions suggested to be necessary by 2050 to avoid dangerous climate change.”
— Also note that falling birthrates aren’t inevitable. In Egypt, birthrates appear to be rising again as the new government gets rid of various family-planning services.
9 Comments on "Why are birthrates falling around the world? Blame television"
GregT on Mon, 13th May 2013 5:15 pm
“Environmentalists have long warned that if the global population keeps soaring …….that’ll put a huge strain on the Earth’s natural resources.”
Yes, they did warn us that we would put a huge strain on the Earth’s natural ECOSYSTEMS, and they were correct.
To imply that the Earth’s biological and ecological systems are merely human ‘resources’ is a flawed way of thinking. We cannot consume the Earth and expect it to continue to support human life. We can’t have our cake and eat it too.
dsula on Mon, 13th May 2013 6:06 pm
Quick, send loads and loads of TVs to africa and all muslims.
DC on Mon, 13th May 2013 6:29 pm
RoFL! Only in amerika would such a stupid article make it past the editor.
moli on Mon, 13th May 2013 6:30 pm
the truth is that the g8 have had their fill of oil.. its users belong to a most selfish group of greedy self centerd self serving villens who refused to share with the poorer nations. . the media whilst belonging to the greedy rich . . has infused even the poorer nations with aspirations to the same self serving lifestyles . . so they both dont want kids .either out of poverty of wealth. . or poverty of ideology or both. the earth wont allow more than the 85mil b/d so now the sqabble for it is here. having childeren and wishing thier progress requires an energy and strength
of character. so that the bs on tv doesnt take over ones life.. . and for that. . the bs on tv must be avoided to give one time to find ones self and happily give that freedom from tv to ones offspring in a world of addicted zombies. .if anything its good that the zombies dont reproduce. . they dont deserve to. . give them the remote control.
George on Mon, 13th May 2013 11:31 pm
This is a typical case of how to take two different stats and mash them together. I’m not so sure there is such a correlation but there is a movement that is moving away from the traditional family where more and more people are opting to become childfree. This is not the 50’s where it was automatic that the woman shall bear children those days are quickly diminishing.
c8 on Tue, 14th May 2013 1:11 am
Birthrates can only fall in this manner if contraceptives are available. To attribute this to TV alone is ridiculous.
econ101 on Tue, 14th May 2013 1:25 am
Birth rates are falling because nature takes care of itself. No government, no climate change, no peak oil.
banjo on Tue, 14th May 2013 12:02 pm
I think birthrates are falling due to mobile phones.
Or it could be due to the introduction of the flat screen tv.
Alternatively it might be internet bandwidth usage increasing.
Actually no the author is right probably just TV.
Kenz300 on Tue, 14th May 2013 1:14 pm
Maybe people are beginning to realize that if you can not provide for yourself you can not provide for a child.
Unemployment rates are up around the world.
Youth unemployment rates are sky rocketing.
Access to family planning services needs to be available to all that want it.
Every country needs to develop a plan to balance its population with its resources; food, water, energy and JOBS. Those that do not will be trying to export their people and their problems.