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Page added on May 2, 2016
We’re More At Risk Of Death From Climate Change, Pandemic, Than A Car Crash
A new report has found that the average person is five times more likely to die in an “act of human extinction” than an act of human error. And while this may be good news for those with a fear of driving, for the rest of us the future looks grim.
The media has hinted at the possibility of a huge catastrophic incident such as a disease pandemic wiping out the majority, if not all, of the Earth’s population. Now, however, scientists have laid the rumors to rest, crunched the numbers, and shown this tragic end to be a real possibility. The annual Global Catastrophic Risk from the U.K.-based Global Challenges Foundation uses factors such as climate change and political relations to compute the risk of a “human extinction event,” or any catastrophic event that kills at least 10 percent of the world’s population. This year’s report found that the average American is five times more likely to die in a human extinction event than a car crash, and identified climate change and international disease outbreaks as some of the most likely end-of-world disasters.
Humanity is a major part of the Earth’s ecosystem and when the planet’s health deteriorates, our health suffers as well. Rising temperatures caused by climate change have led to a notable increase in human health problems. For example, many researchers note that unseasonably warm temperatures have contributed to the spread of mosquito-transmitted diseases, such as Chikungunya and Zika virus, outside of its normal range. In addition, warmer and longer summers have also caused spikes in tick populations and widened their habitat. These rising temperatures may even play a role in the increasing incidence of Lyme disease.
Other extreme human health threats caused by climate change include high levels of air pollution. This problem has been linked to both increased instances of stroke and respiratory diseases.
Luckily, The Stern Review, a U.K. government report on the economics of climate change, estimated that there is a 0.1 percent risk of human extinction every year, but when that is added up over a century, that risk jumps to a 9.5 percent chance of human extinction within the next century, The Atlantic reported.
In addition to climate change, pandemics also pose a major threat to human life, and we have already begun to see just how quickly some diseases can spread. In 2014 the world saw the largest Ebola outbreak in history, The Center for Disease Control and Prevention reported. As of April 13, 2016 there were a total of 15,261 lab-confirmed deaths and 28,652 suspected deaths.
Antibiotic resistance has also made once-treatable diseases now untreatable and the planet has seen a number of “superbug” outbreaks throughout the U.S. alone. One report predicted that by 2050 antibiotic resistance will likely kill more people than cancer. According to The Associated Press, many of the patients sick with life-threatening superbugs caught the bugs through contaminated medical equipment.
Luckily, The Global Catastrophic Risk report urges that these numbers are not exactly set in stone and many of these risk factors, such as climate change and the threat of nuclear warfare, could be mitigated.
Source: Cotton-Barratt O, Farquhar S, Halstead J, Schubert S, Snyder-Beattie A. Global Catastrophic Risks. 2016
22 Comments on "We’re More At Risk Of Death From Climate Change, Pandemic, Than A Car Crash"
Davy on Mon, 2nd May 2016 8:16 pm
“Luckily, The Global Catastrophic Risk report urges that these numbers are not exactly set in stone and many of these risk factors, such as climate change and the threat of nuclear warfare, could be mitigated.”
Sure, we are going to mitigate climate change with parties in Paris. More like climate change is a runaway process that will begin the die off process. It is a matter of the food chain and the economy. A destabilized food chain will not support 7BIL people. Rising sea levels will inundate coastal areas destroying the global economy. This will unfold over time but there is no mitigating the process but we can mitigate the displacement of people lives to some degree. What is tragic about all of this is an unavoidable die off of a significant amount of people is surely in the cards with mitigation or not.
Plantagenet on Mon, 2nd May 2016 8:30 pm
Davy got it 100% right.
Cheers!
makati1 on Mon, 2nd May 2016 9:00 pm
Extinction is definitely a “huge catastrophic incident”. THAT is in all of our futures. The end is already written. It is only a matter of how and how soon. My grand kids will definitely see/experience it as the speed of environmental collapse is increasing as we approach the hockey-stick moment.
I could list a hundred proofs but the deniers would still deny and the rest of us already know.
freak on Mon, 2nd May 2016 10:00 pm
I care more about all other species going extinct more than humans dying off. The human apes did it to themselves having a energy party tell there is no tomorrow. All the rest of the animal populations are collateral damage to no fault of there own.
GregT on Mon, 2nd May 2016 11:25 pm
The historical average temperature here for May 2 is 15.5°C, or 59.9°F. Today in my back yard it was 33°C, or 91.4°F.
The weather here is seriously out of whack.
GregT on Mon, 2nd May 2016 11:36 pm
And also, if I might add, it is not out of the norm to be getting snow here overnight at this time of the year. It’s 9:30 pm right now and it’s 21°C.
Dredd on Tue, 3rd May 2016 4:46 am
We are 9,520 times more likely to die from human extinction caused by fossil fuel pollution than by a terrorist (The 1.14% 1% vs. The 100% – 3)
Davy on Tue, 3rd May 2016 6:41 am
Our weather here has been cooler than normal in central Missouri. It has been perfect actually for the farming I do which is grazing management of cattle and goats. I know this will not last. We have unstable climate now and it is going to become worse. The way I am preparing for it is allowing a diversity of grasses to grow for the animals. If we have drought they will still have something to eat. I know dangerous periods of drought are ahead.
peakyeast on Tue, 3rd May 2016 9:56 am
Humans fears has often not been about probability nor logic.
For example: The most common place to sustain injury from falling according to statistics are within the walls of your living arrangement.
Yet it is only when people go out of their door and onto a bike or something that the laws says you should put on a helmet.
If the laws or human fears were based on logic it should by law be decreed that you put on a helmet when you enter your living arrangement – and most certainly while in bed – since you many use most of their “home” time there.
😀 😉
joe on Tue, 3rd May 2016 10:03 am
Yup, when I go out and cross the street, I look both ways in case a drought hits me.
Ok I get it, statisitcs, math, probability, matrices, venn diagrams, etc
I always known it, my destiny. Clowns will kill me in a squirting flower revolution. Gang squirted until there is nothing left except red noses and running face paint. Oh the horror!
onlooker on Tue, 3rd May 2016 10:11 am
We and especially the children are now in the bull’s eye of these global destructive forces. But cheer up you still might die from a heart attack or something.
Apneaman on Tue, 3rd May 2016 2:51 pm
peaky….
Why we fear spiders more than climate change
https://bangordailynews.com/2016/05/01/opinion/contributors/why-we-fear-spiders-more-than-climate-change/
Apneaman on Tue, 3rd May 2016 2:58 pm
And yet another record for the arrogant cancer monkeys.
Within just a few short years from now a record number of humans are going to learn the meaning of “nonlinear” …………..the hard way.
April joins parade of record global temperatures, making it 12 months in a row
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/april-joins-parade-of-record-global-temperatures-making-it-12-months-in-a-row-20160502-gokkg2#ixzz47ahC0BvQ
peakyeast on Tue, 3rd May 2016 5:26 pm
@ape: I can see that in women… 🙂
But I am actually extremely afraid/careful when I work with high voltage – much more than I have ever been of spiders and snakes…
But then I have hit my head hard many times as a child….
Curt on Tue, 3rd May 2016 6:43 pm
A great big exponential thumbs up to Ape for pointing out the critical importance of non-linear progression and the difference between that and linear. To quote Albert Einstein: compound interest is the most powerful force in the Universe.
Makati1 on Tue, 3rd May 2016 6:50 pm
Ap, how do you reason with Americans who are giving up their freedoms because they are afraid of “terrorists”? Answer: you don’t.
The chances of being killed in an accident is 50 times that of being killed by a terrorist.
– You are 35,079 times more likely to die from heart disease than from a terrorist attack
– You are 33,842 times more likely to die from cancer than from a terrorist attack
– You are 5,882 times more likely to die from medical error than terrorism.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-terrorism-statistics-every-american-needs-to-hear/5382818
Most Americans are so f–king brainwashed, they are beyond saving. Save yourself.
Apneaman on Tue, 3rd May 2016 7:17 pm
Mother nature has a great sense of irony if you ask me. Or maybe she has declared war and is following a grand strategy. Like with Houston she is now directly targeting the civilian cancer workers. You go girl.
Wildfire destroys Fort McMurray homes, most of city evacuated
Thousands of people are fleeing Fort McMurray as wildfire leaps highway and into city
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/wildfire-destroys-fort-mcmurray-homes-most-of-city-evacuated-1.3563977
https://soundcloud.com/afrizen/nature-bats-last
Makati1 on Tue, 3rd May 2016 7:21 pm
In a different vein:
“When you see that in order to produce, you need to obtain permission from men who produce nothing; when you see that money is flowing to those who deal not in goods, but in favors; when you see that men get rich more easily by graft than by work; and your laws no longer protect you against them, but protect them against you;…you may know that your society is doomed.”
Atlas Shrugged – Ayn Rand
While I like her novels, but not her total philosophy, I do agree with many of her observations. You have to remember that she wrote that novel prior to 1957, during the US’ golden years, it is an interesting take on today’s America.
Apneaman on Tue, 3rd May 2016 8:47 pm
Fort McMurray evacuated as wildfire destroys homes, threatens downtown
60,000 flee as wildfire leaps highway and into city
“The entire city of 60,000 has been ordered evacuated. Residents fleeing the fire have caused gridlock on Highway 63 leading north and south out of the city.”
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/fort-mcmurray-evacuated-as-wildfire-destroys-homes-threatens-downtown-1.3563977
Apneaman on Wed, 4th May 2016 12:57 pm
How about that plan to migrate to norther Canada to escape the consequences of AGW? Ooops
“Please Get Us Out” — Historic Alberta Wildfire Threatens to Engulf Entire City of Fort McMurray, 80,000 Forced to Evacuate
“Conditions Consistent With Climate Change Fan Massive Fire Invading City Made by Tar Sands Production
Monday, a massive wildfire began to encroach upon the City of Fort McMurray, Alberta — a region of Canada known for its production of the hothouse gas emitting tar sands. The fire jumped the Athabasca River on Monday night and, with a switch in the wind toward the southwest, began to approach and invade the city on Tuesday. By noon Wednesday, the fire still raged out of control — swelling to more than 10,000 hectares as more and more buildings fell victim to the flames.
Fort McMurray Mayor Reid Fiest in a tweet at 12:05 PM Wednesday briefly described what is now a city under existential threat:
The catastrophic wildfire is 10,000 ha and resisted all the suppression efforts. Today’s weather could cause explosive conditions.
The southerly winds and hot airs fanning such explosive conditions ran up behind a high amplitude wave in the Jet Stream pushing temperatures into the upper 80s and lower 90s (F) — readings that are about 30-35 degrees (F) above average for this time of year — over a broad swath of Northwestern Canada on Tuesday. The heat-baked air wrung out moisture and drew humidity readings into the very dry 20 percent range. Similar extreme fire conditions are now continuing into Wednesday — with temperatures in Fort McMurray predicted to hit 87 degrees — as the fire now burns through the city proper.
For this region of Canada, these are highly abnormal conditions consistent with weather pattern alterations forced by human-caused climate change.”
https://robertscribbler.com/2016/05/03/arctic-wildfire-threatens-tar-sands-city-of-fort-mcmurray-thousands-forced-to-evacuate/
Apneaman on Wed, 4th May 2016 1:25 pm
B.C. fire season flares up early forcing province to turn down Alberta request for help
“British Columbia has turned down a request for help from Alberta to send firefighters to help battle the Fort McMurray blaze, as the province struggles with an early start to this year’s wildfire season.”
“But B.C. is currently experiencing high levels of fire activity, especially in the Peace River Region, where 48 fires are burning and four evacuation alerts are in place. “Our personnel are currently fully engaged across the province,” said Turcot, in an email Wednesday morning.
“Given the current level of fire activity in B.C, and the need to maintain necessary resources here, B.C. was unable to lend crews at this time. Future requests will be considered,” he said.”
http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/b-c-fire-season-flares-up-early-thanks-to-unseasonably-warm-dry-weather-expert
Apneaman on Wed, 4th May 2016 1:29 pm
‘Like driving through the apocalypse’: Residents capture unbelievable videos of Fort McMurray fire
http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/fort-mcmurray-fire-video