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Page added on August 4, 2018
We’re Going to Die in Record Numbers as Heatwaves Bake The World
Mounting science is painting a very bleak picture of a future of soaring temperatures, and the accompanying death toll those soaring temperatures will demand.
New research has given us the first solid prediction of how more heatwaves like the one that’s struck Europe this year will affect future death rates, finding tropical heatwaves in some areas could one day send the mortality rate skyrocketing by as much as 2,000 percent.
As temperatures climb, bodies overheat, and the chances of harsh environmental conditions (such as smog) go up. Neither is good for our health, and frequent summer heatwaves can often be too much for some people to bear.
Last month in Montreal, the deaths of 70 people were blamed on a rise in temperatures. As global warming makes these kinds of weather events more common, it’s important to consider the toll it will take on our health.
“Worryingly, research shows that it is highly likely that there will be an increase in their frequency and severity under a changing climate, however, evidence about the impacts on mortality at a global scale is limited,” says co-author Antonio Gasparrini from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.
With an international team of researchers, Gasparrrini created a database of daily measurements of temperatures and mortalities from the start of 1984 to the end of 2015 for 412 communities around the globe.
They used these numbers to predict mortality rates extending back to 1977 and all the way forward to the end of this century, varying the outcomes based on several scenarios.
For the ‘business-as-usual’ scenario, the news is grim.
“This research, the largest epidemiological study on the projected impacts of heatwaves under global warming, suggests it could dramatically increase heatwave-related mortality, especially in highly-populated tropical and sub-tropical countries,” says Gasparrini.
By 2080, there’s an outside chance that Colombia could see an increase in heatwave deaths of more than 30 times today’s numbers. For Brazil and the Philippines, the numbers are only slightly less concerning, at around 10 to 20 times the current mortality rate.
Major cities in the US and Australia could see at least four times the number of deaths.
If a silver lining can be found on this research, it’s that the same models also suggest these hypothetical numbers needn’t be so high.
“The good news is that if we mitigate greenhouse gas emissions under scenarios that comply with the Paris Agreement, then the projected impact will be much reduced,” says Gasparrini.
Populations will almost certainly continue to adapt to rising temperatures as well.
Urban planning might provide infrastructure for cooler living and working conditions. Healthcare could adjust to intervene earlier in conditions where heat stress carries risks. Individuals could grow more aware of the dangers and modify behaviours.
Measures like these would have a significant impact on that bottom line, limiting casualties.
But even with a best-case scenario, where countries stick to the Paris agreement and take heatwaves seriously enough to implement programs to mediate their impact, we can expect to see a doubling in deaths in some tropical countries.
That’s not as bad as it could be, but it still means we can expect more deadly summers like 2018’s to be hitting our planet.
Realistically, healthcare programs and urban infrastructure changes won’t be universal, and governments aren’t exactly united in their stance on climate change. Developing countries or nations with unequal distributions of wealth might be less likely to implement government policies devoting resources to reducing the impact of heatwaves.
Countries like China face more than just the ravages of heat stress. A separate study carried out by researchers at MIT suggests the North China Plain could face heatwaves that make it all but uninhabitable.
Farming in the area adds a vast amount of water to the atmosphere, creating a blanket of vapour that exacerbates the local greenhouse effect, adding half a degree to the temperature.
High humidity coupled with high temperature makes cooling down almost impossible, since in those conditions sweat can no longer evaporate. For the 400 million people who call the plains home, this could be a catastrophe.
“This spot is going to be the hottest spot for deadly heatwaves in the future, especially under climate change,” says the study’s lead author, Elfatih Eltahir.
No matter how we look at it, our warming planet is going to be a deadly one, especially for the poor and the sick.
This research was published in PLOS Medicine.
45 Comments on "We’re Going to Die in Record Numbers as Heatwaves Bake The World"
Permavillage on Sat, 4th Aug 2018 8:35 pm
yes, by 2080
The last drop on Sat, 4th Aug 2018 9:53 pm
No worry..Rex Tillerson publicly announced humans will adapt….as they always have and technology will provide the solutions.
Good Old T Rex….what a guy…hope he enjoys all that money Exxon Mobile gave him.
Of course. Public policy will pay for these adaptations….according to Rex….
makati1 on Sat, 4th Aug 2018 11:21 pm
More China bashing. Yes, the climate will affect China. But it is already burning the Us West Coast, Drying up the wheat belt, cooking the North East, etc. No mention of those facts.
Granted, no one will escape the heat, it will warm the big continents first. From the center out as is happening in China, Austral is, the Us, etc.
If you want a look at today’s heat, check this out. You can spin the globe with your mouse. Click on any spot to get readings.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic
Note the typhoon near Japan and the hurricane near Hawaii.
Kat C on Sun, 5th Aug 2018 4:11 am
Yep we will die in record numbers…can you say extinction?
Cloggie on Sun, 5th Aug 2018 4:43 am
If Summer 2019 will be like 2018 or worse, things could really change fast. Expect cars to be called “planet killers”. Expect antifa types to willingly damage cars, unless it is an e-vehicle. Petrol stations can burn very well.
If you are the speculating type, you might consider investing in solar and wind companies. Safe bet.
100% energy transition by 2030, it can be done:
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2017/01/03/netherlands-sustainable-by-2030/
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2017/03/24/the-netherlands-fossil-free-in-2030/
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2017/09/30/hans-josef-fell-accelerating-the-global-transition-to-100-renewable-energy/
GoSpeedRacer on Sun, 5th Aug 2018 4:53 am
Fortunately I am extremely
wealthy and have my own
skyscraper, with gigantic air
conditioners. So everybody else
can sweat and die of heat stroke.
while I dine on roast duck,
in an air conditioned 3000 sq ft
dining room.
peakyeast on Sun, 5th Aug 2018 5:01 am
Cloggie… Look at CO2 content after last interglacial period.
It takes 1000s of years for nature to scrub the air clean of CO2. This time it will be 10.000s of years. Even if we stopped producing any CO2 and if CO2 actually had a determining effect we would NEVER get rid of it.
peakyeast on Sun, 5th Aug 2018 5:04 am
I find this graph very telling of the CO2 as a regulator of temperature…
http://www.euanmearns.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/vostok_150001.png
peakyeast on Sun, 5th Aug 2018 5:06 am
CO2 content always lags the temperature swings – which means it is by no means a driving force.
Cloggie on Sun, 5th Aug 2018 5:17 am
“It takes 1000s of years for nature to scrub the air clean of CO2. This time it will be 10.000s of years. Even if we stopped producing any CO2 and if CO2 actually had a determining effect we would NEVER get rid of it.”
Secret Dutch weapon, prof Olaf Schuiling.lol
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2017/06/25/prof-olaf-schuiling-has-a-solution-for-the-co2-problem/
The last drop on Sun, 5th Aug 2018 5:27 am
Peakyeast claims
CO2 content always lags the temperature swings – which means it is by no means a driving force
Pretzel logic…
Suppose YOU figured that all by yourself
The last drop on Sun, 5th Aug 2018 5:35 am
Peakyeast only one click away…
https://www.skepticalscience.com/CO2-is-not-the-only-driver-of-climate-intermediate.htm
Greenhouse gases and ozone contribute warming of +2.9 Wm-2. The majority of this is from CO2 (+1.66 Wm-2). This warming is offset by anthropogenic aerosols, reducing the total human caused warming to 1.6 Wm-2. So the warming from CO2 actually exceeds the final total radiative forcing. The other important point to glean from Figure 2 is that we have a relatively high understanding of greenhouse gas radiative forcing. The probability density function (PDF) shows a much higher probability than the aerosols PDF, meaning the uncertainty associated with greenhouse gas forcing is much lower. This is also confirmed by experimental observations from both satellites and surface measurements which confirm the enhanced greenhouse effect from rising greenhouse gases.
So in summary, there are two reasons for the focus on CO2:
CO2 is the most dominant radiative forcing
CO2 radiative forcing is increasing faster than any other forcing
deadly on Sun, 5th Aug 2018 6:33 am
Heat waves are better than freezing to death.
Your chances are much better than it being forty below and nowhere to go.
Mother Earth is sick to death of humans making the entire planet a vast shithole. She could care less if humans live or die. Mother Nature is the greatest teacher and kills all students.
Especially along the seaboards and land masses located across the expanse of the oceans; that is where there will be the old mega-death experience.
Anybody living along the southern edge of Greenland will be spared of the misery and suffering, everywhere else around the world will be a living hell, thank God.
It ain’t the heat that is going to get us, it is the undeniable fact that there are too many humans running around looking for someplace to go but there is nowhere to turn.
Just be happy, nothing else left to do except die.
That will be a lot sooner than you think.
There will be mass quantities of humans biting the dust.
Ashes to ashes, dust to dust, if the worms don’t get us, the buzzards must.
Beer drinking time.
pointer on Sun, 5th Aug 2018 6:46 am
Makati said: “More China bashing. Yes, the climate will affect China. But it is already burning the Us West Coast, Drying up the wheat belt, cooking the North East, etc. No mention of those facts.”
Makati, Not exactly China bashing, but rather what the numbers say. Some recent modelling of the “misery index” (temp + humidity) identifies that area of China to be one of the first where there are extended periods of time where humans cannot sweat. If you cannot sweat, you die in hours. This change won’t happen overnight, so what will happen is people clear out of there. “To where?” is a good question. As this is a key Chinese agricultural area, another good question is “From where will the Chinese get food to make up for what is lost by this area being abandoned?”
Kat said: “Yep we will die in record numbers…can you say extinction?” I would not be such a cheerleader, as it will be interesting to see your behaviour when you realize it is your turn to go.
Cloggie on Sun, 5th Aug 2018 6:55 am
Gulf of Mexico style cyclone in the North Sea, next week, for the first time in history? Weather models say it is possible, with lots of (welcome) rain:
https://twitter.com/Weerprimeur/status/1025440677902118913?s=20
twocats on Sun, 5th Aug 2018 7:38 am
the heavy rains allow growth which then creates fuel for massive fires.
northern california will be an interesting test case as it burns up pretty much every year, regrows, and then burns again. Santa Rosa (population 175k) and Redding (92k) have already experienced massive fires. when the insurance money runs out for rent (2 year settlements) those people will probably be forced to relocate due to cost of housing in the area.
So right now its just 1,000s of people dislocated per year. But pretty soon it will be 10’s of 1,000s.
and that’s just fires. puerto rico dislocation is at least partly due to the hurricane and therefore climate change – and that number is probably close to 100k.
twocats on Sun, 5th Aug 2018 7:42 am
agreed pointer – china bashing is off the mark
here is the cited article and its simply way to nerdy and science-y to be considered political bashing.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-05252-y
Hawkcreek on Sun, 5th Aug 2018 8:03 am
Most of these deaths are just old people checking out a little early.
That will end up cutting down on FF use, since you won’t have so many thermostats turned to max cool or max heat.
Win for everybody.
Davy on Sun, 5th Aug 2018 8:25 am
China bashing here on this board is not off the mark considering the number of sinophiles and anti-American extremist. All it is rather is a balancing act. Extremism is the nastiness that causes this board to be irrelevant. 5 individuals make up the majority of this and they attract countless others. You know who you are deviants.
twocats on Sun, 5th Aug 2018 8:45 am
ouch HC – truth hurts. a lot of unproductive elderly – that is true. some cultures still use them as child care which is probably their most productive capacity. but most elderly are just wasting away in assisted living or “homes”.
Hawkcreek on Sun, 5th Aug 2018 10:05 am
I am 71 and have been working for weeks ripping off the siding on an old house I bought so I could install insulation (100 year old house with zero insulation in the walls).
If I ever get to the point I consider myself unproductive, I will do the only moral thing, check myself out.
I always wonder why people are willing to hang around when other people have to change their diapers.
pointer on Sun, 5th Aug 2018 10:24 am
Hey HC, focus on airtightness over insulation. Air seepage causes orders of more energy transfer than conduction. Also air tightness at the right place in the wall assembly keeps out moisture and leads to greater longevity of the structure. You’re welcome for the unsolicited advice. BTW, once your walls are airtight, you’ll need some sort of mechanical ventilation.
GregT on Sun, 5th Aug 2018 11:07 am
” Extremism is the nastiness that causes this board to be irrelevant. 5 individuals make up the majority of this and they attract countless others. You know who you are deviants.”
Would you be referring to your delusional little ‘goony gang’ thingy again Davy? You certainly do have quite the active little imagination there buddy.
I wouldn’t bring up the ‘goony gang’ thing with the nice doctors Davy. Your delusional little “documentation project” alone, is likely enough to get you committed.
LOL
Hawkcreek on Sun, 5th Aug 2018 11:19 am
Thanks Pointer.
That is all part of my plan.
I’ve been a subscriber to several homebuilder magazines for years, and a vapor barrier, in the right place, is a necessity here in Arkansas.
Davy on Sun, 5th Aug 2018 11:31 am
“Would you be referring to your delusional little ‘goony gang’”
Yea, and you are the Goebbels of the gang as the enabler and supporter of this bad behavior.
kervennic on Sun, 5th Aug 2018 11:41 am
Unabomber is proven right.
Sabotage or extermination.
GregT on Sun, 5th Aug 2018 12:00 pm
“Yea, and you are the Goebbels of the gang as the enabler and supporter of this bad behavior.”
Have you ever considered stand-up comedy Davy? Because you are absolutely hilarious!!!!
ROTFLMFAO!!!!!!!
Dennis WILLIAMS on Sun, 5th Aug 2018 12:07 pm
In the bible GOD said the earth would end in fire & prim stone humans just don’t care the end of days are upon us too late to stop global warming the end of days are upon us as a old hippie I remember back in June of 1970 that we were killing our planet
Cloggie on Sun, 5th Aug 2018 12:17 pm
Forecasters predict heatwave could last until October:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6028207/Britain-continue-roast-86F-today-rain-creates-North-South-divide.html
David York on Sun, 5th Aug 2018 1:55 pm
Re: China bashing – first off, most of the CO2 in the atmosphere today was NOT put there by China. Even now, per capita the US puts more CO2 into the atmosphere than China does. But China’s industrial base, and the smog it produces, actually reflects a lot of energy back into space, producing a cooling effect. We know that, with the current amount of CO2 in the atmosphere, temps should be higher than they are. “Global Dimming” is why. If you aren’t familiar with this term, you have some research to do. BBC did a documentary about it in 2005.
fmr-paultard on Sun, 5th Aug 2018 2:06 pm
supertrad’s wind turbines in texas extract ginormous amount of energy from the weather system and causing less cloud cover. same ting happen in eurotardland where gigantic wind turbines extract energy from teh system.
the reason there’s wind is short and long term. long term is storms and such, shorter term is day/night and within day. if there’s cloud cover, the cooling is almost immediate and there’s wind.
please kick anti american dog. i dont’ know why chinese are so superior but keep stealing supertards technology. what happen to supercomuter race, supertrads won!
deadly on Sun, 5th Aug 2018 2:24 pm
With any luck, about two or three billion will die all across EurAsia and Africa very soon.
It is the only hope. That is what Obi Wan Kenobi said.
pointer on Sun, 5th Aug 2018 2:54 pm
Hc, Let me know if you’d like some free consulting. I’ve got some training and experience in building homes using Passive House principles.
Cloggie on Sun, 5th Aug 2018 3:16 pm
supertrad’s wind turbines in texas extract ginormous amount of energy from the weather system and causing less cloud cover. same ting happen in eurotardland where gigantic wind turbines extract energy from teh system.
Yes, here in Eurotardland the problem has been recognized as well:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QAwL0O5nXe0
Rice and Beans on Sun, 5th Aug 2018 5:12 pm
I’ll make my own wind, thanks.
makati1 on Sun, 5th Aug 2018 6:08 pm
David, you and I know that, but there are a number of Sinophobes on here who cannot tolerate anything positive about China, or consider per capita numbers. They are American “exceptionalists” thru and thru. I would like to stop all shipments of goods to The Us for one year and watch it disintegrate. Americans have no idea that it is the stuff from other countries that keeps the Us alive, but I think they are soon going to find out. LOL
jj@snet.net on Mon, 6th Aug 2018 7:48 am
Some don’t consider suicide an option, we can thank religion for that suffering.
twocats on Mon, 6th Aug 2018 8:28 am
deadly – bang for the buck – it’d be better if americans or wealthy MEs died – they use more resources – i’m always looking for a bargain
Sissyfuss on Mon, 6th Aug 2018 9:56 am
“The good news is that if we mitigate ghg emissions under scenarios that comply with the Paris Agreement, then the projected impact will be much reduced.” The irrationality of that sentence makes me want to switch from sun tan lotion to barbecue sauce and get it over quicker.
makati1 on Mon, 6th Aug 2018 6:23 pm
“What Is Causing These Record Heatwaves, Massive “Firenadoes”, Giant Dust Storms And Large Earthquakes?”
“In July, Death Valley experienced “the hottest month ever recorded on the planet”….temperatures in Lisbon, Portugal were expected to top 107 degrees both Saturday and Sunday….the crippling drought in Australia is devastating farms “like a cancer”,…In California, extreme heat and bone dry conditions continue to fuel some of the worst wildfires in the history of the state……Elsewhere in the Southwest, drought continues to intensify, and this is starting to produce absolutely enormous dust storms…. as we saw in the 1930s, a consistent pattern of giant dust storms can absolutely cripple a nation.” (US food security? LMAO)
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/earth-changes-accelerate-what-is-causing-these-record-heatwaves-massive-firenadoes-giant-dust-storms-and-large-earthquakes
“Something truly dramatic appears to be happening to the globe, and it isn’t just because the amount of carbon dioxide in the air suddenly reached some sort of magical “tipping point”….(Really? Why not?)
Keep in mind that this was written by a politician wannabee and contains some ‘politically correct’ bullshit about man not causing climate change. As he lives in Utah, he is likely also a Mormon and believes that only his god can change a planet’s weather. Maybe he should communicate with Mother Nature and/or study physics?
Cloggie on Tue, 7th Aug 2018 11:30 am
“Siemens Gamesa & Van Oord Chosen To Build 380 Megawatt Fryslân Nearshore Wind Farm”
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/08/07/siemens-gamesa-van-oord-chosen-to-build-380-megawatt-fryslan-nearshore-wind-farm/
Take-away point is the turnkey price: 500 million euro for 380 MW, or 1.3 million per MW for offshore wind, meaning no land loss. Operational mid 2021.
Construction cost 600 MW Gemini offshore windpark was 2.8 billion (2017), in other words a massive price reduction.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gemini_Wind_Farm
Cloggie on Tue, 7th Aug 2018 11:36 am
Video artist impression windpark:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aWqakRbentA
fmr-paultard on Tue, 7th Aug 2018 11:45 am
aswange, enjoy this battel of marawi buddy. this is a war in modern time in the phils of the failed state. definitation of failed state is that the state doesnt’ enjoy a monopoly of exericse of force buddy. my supertards don’t have that problem now do they. supertards give me luke 22:36 but i don’t enjoy monopoly of force, supertards do.
monopoly of force doesn’t mean the use of force either buddy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=whi0UE2JefY
after all this losses and then turn around and granting special sharia zone. how stupid.
Cloggie on Wed, 8th Aug 2018 12:58 am
In Europe the heat wave is over.
Yesterday here in South-Holland 37 degrees. Temperature drop of 10 degrees Celsius over night. Coming 2 weeks will see normal nice Summer temperatures of ca. 24 degrees Celsius.
Davy on Wed, 8th Aug 2018 5:57 am
“In Europe the heat wave is over.”
not the drought