Peak Oil is You
Donate Bitcoins ;-) or Paypal :-)
Page added on November 16, 2016
Trump: on the way to “Scenario 3
Scenarios are a quite common tool used by the United Nations and other international agencies to look at the future of humanity, they are used to group their reflections around coherent visions. We call Scenario 3 one of these archetypal visions that create the international agencies1 and we used in our studies that compare the available fossil fuels subject to peak oil with the expected demand of energy2.
Scenario 3 describes a future of regional competition and return to national sovereignty. It assumes that regions will focus more on their self-reliance, national sovereignty, and regional identity, leading to tensions between regions and/or cultures. Countries will be concerned with security and protection, emphasizing primarily regional markets (protectionism, deglobalization) and paying little attention to common goods, international environmental agreements, and cooperation for development. Scenario 3 describes a future of deglobalization and conflict, it and is, to a large extent, Trump’s conservative discourse.
Other scenarios, such as Scenario 1, talk about economic optimism and high growth. The humanity is focused on achieving competitive markets and free trade that would, eventually, benefit everyone by correcting social inequalities and environmental problems. Scenario 1 is the scenario of globalization. There is also a Scenario 2, the one of green capitalism, a friendly version of Scenario 1, which gives priority to protecting the environment and reducing inequality, using technological advances, dematerialization, and the economy of services and information.
There is a fourth scenario at stake,Scenario 4, which consists of a friendly version of Scenario 3. In Scenario 4 there is a major change in values: society reacts against nonsense consumerism and disrespect for life. Citizens and countries decide to assume their responsibilities by being a green example for the rest. Although barriers to trade of goods are rebuilt, barriers to information tend to be eliminated. The emphasis is on finding regional solutions to social and environmental problems, usually by combining drastic changes in lifestyles with decentralized governance styles. Scenario 4 is the ecologist scenario, the one of local autonomy, cooperation and open-source, the closest to the utopias of the Degrowth movement.
The problem is that Scenarios 1 and 2 require a lot of energy, while Scenario is the one that needs less energy because it has less trade and less economic growth. Scenario 4 is also a low energy one. The bad news is that Scenario 3 is blind to environmental problems and leads to the war for resources because there is no lifestyle change towards an austere society based on renewable energy. Only Scenario 4 could be a minimally sustainable one because is the only one that invests in the energy of the future and does not grow a lot.
Trump’s victory, like so many other things, shows us that the business as usual options are no longer what we used to call business as usual. We can no longer choose between neoliberal globalization or a slightly more social globalization of sustainable development. In a world where the energy is getting more and more difficult to obtain those scenarios that minimize energy consumption are the ones that have more probabilities of becoming true. Now the only possible options are Scenario 3 (neocons, right-wing) or those that could arise from Scenario 4 (anti-consumerist movements and ecosocialism).
The traditional political left parties should wake up and stop pursuing futures that resemble Scenario 2 and seek a slightly more friendly or greener globalization. Only the political options that are well aware of the planet’s ecological limits can be a solid discourse against neoconservatives. In this moment we need to develop a political alternative based on anti-consumerist values, on the defense of the land and on the values of cooperation. Only this alternative can compensate self-destructive neoconservative tendencies that lead us to a dangerous competition for the resources in a planet that is going on a trend of constant ecological degradation.
Margarita Mediavilla teaches at the School of Industrial Engineering of the University of Valladolid and belongs to the research group of Energy, Economy and System Dynamics (GEEDS) She is also engaged in the EU research project MEDEAS dedicated to modeling the energy transition in Europe.
28 Comments on "Trump: on the way to “Scenario 3"
Go Speed Racer on Wed, 16th Nov 2016 7:10 pm
What about Scenario 5. ?
That’s where I win the lottery,
I get a big house with a concrete wall
around it. Also I get an 85″ flat screen
to watch everybody else fight and die
in food riots, while I live forever from a
big freezer full of frozen dinners.
makati1 on Wed, 16th Nov 2016 7:42 pm
And then there is the ‘scenario’ of this organization that seems more realistic:
http://www.deagel.com/country/United-States-of-America_c0001.aspx
Population of the U$ 2015 = 320,000,000.
Population of the U$ 2025 = 61,000,000.
PPP U$ 2015 = $55,800.
PPP U$ 2025 = $10,345.
Seems more realistic to me than the above article.]
https://www.theburningplatform.com/2016/11/16/the-good-the-guilty-and-the-guillotine/#more-136561
“The American military contractor, Deagel, with ties to the U.S. Navy, the NSA and the CIA, recently made headlines when they forecasted U.S. population shrinking from 321 million in 2015 to only 61 million by the year 2025. In addition, they are also predicting massive reductions to America’s Gross Domestic Product and Military Budgets.”
Hmmmm…
DMyers on Wed, 16th Nov 2016 9:52 pm
Just because someone is able to articulate certain speculative scenarios does not make those scenarios more than conceptual constructs. Then, to take current events and speculate on those as signs of the speculations already speculated does not seem much more productive than any other circular activity.
“Scenario 3 describes a future of deglobalization and conflict, it and is, to a large extent, Trump’s conservative discourse.” That summarizes Bardi’s point. This is far too broad an aspersion to be justified, on its face. I haven’t had this impression of Trump. In comparison to Hilary’s proven bellicose tendencies, I don’t see how any one can see Trump as the one portending conflict. If anything, his significance is to the contrary, at the moment (i.e. WWIII deferred).
Neocons, be gone!
dave thompson on Thu, 17th Nov 2016 2:18 am
A parody of Trump’s first day in White House; Trump is taken to a darkened room where he is shown six angles of the Kennedy assassination (murder?)in real time on a massive theater screen. A man in a black suit and sunglasses Asks; “Mr President do you have any questions?”
Davy on Thu, 17th Nov 2016 7:09 am
What is going on is much more than any one man or nation. Trump can hasten change and chart a new direction for one of the major powers thereby sparking change in all the rest. This is significant but not in the way people think. Its significance is with confidence and vision. People’s attitudes and lifestyles are going to adapt to a new perceived change.
Internationally the political and economic status quo is being upended. Here we will see polarization increase and decease. Some of the most dangerous polarization between the US and Russia may subside. We will see new relationships from the destruction of old ones. We are going to see a hastening of deglobalization. The world was deglobalizing anyway. This deglobalization was not conscious or active. It was not even quantifiable. This deglobalization was a building of tensions and incongruities that were not being addressed politically and economically. The status quo was doubling down on globalism strengthening it and making the tensions worse. Putin, Brexit, and Trexit effect is the end of that status quo.
Within globalism all major powers are absorbed by debt and unable to break away from an international system that is ruled by global markets. No nation can chart its own course when other nations are going to be adversely impacted and then this impact returns to the nation attempting change. That was the status quo but this new overt deglobalization is now a new normal of an adapted status quo where deglobalization that was already building is going to be embraced thereby lowering tensions and hastening destructive change. This new normal will not increase global GDP and growth. What it will do is begin the process of destructive change to the structures of globalism that have allowed the huge multi-decadal growth in global economic activity. This must end because we are at limits of growth. This “must” is defined as a force of natural law not a “must” as in with options. It will end because it must.
This is not at all bad if one sees the destructive forces building with the previous negative trends of globalization. Deglobalization is a necessary and vital process because globalism had reached its limits and any increase was just making the potential for destructive change greater. The bubble that is globalism must be dealt with because all our lives depend on it. Let us hope it deflates slowly rather than quickly because all our security rest on this arrangement. It is possible Putin, Brexit, and Trexit will be that force of a positive that is a negative change. Trump will likely be a hastening this destructive process. It does not matter if his policies succeed or fail what is important is their effect on the status quo. So paradoxically these new forces will be positive forces by doing negative change.
The fact we have a new plan and a vison is actually good because destructive change in a pre-Trump world was building explosively. A system failing as the current one is and without direction is dangerous. People lose confidence and deflation of economic activity occurs explosively and dangerously. The key with the effects of Putin, Brexit, and Trexit is a new narrative of change people can embrace and believe in. Not all have to agree with it or follow it for it to become a new reality and direction. All will be forced to embrace it. These changes will succeed because they are part of a great change at work within the system itself. Globalism is going to unravel and along with it prosperity. These forces of change will make us less affluent but that is what is needed for survival of the destructive change ahead.
Globalism is on its own gradient of change related to macro systematic forces of decay caused by multidimensional forces of decline. Every metric of modern man and the Ecos is in destructive decline. There is no way any one person or nation will matter in this regard. It is only a matter of degree and duration of the decline. A species survivability rest on its ability to adapt to the degree and duration of change and modern man is no different. Trump will hasten this decline but this hastening may be with a shallower descent. This is because the previous economic and political narrative which Hillary represented was a tool of the status quo and would have resisted any change. This would have caused a building of destructive pressures instead of a relieving of them.
Simon on Thu, 17th Nov 2016 7:20 am
Trump is going to push all the little foreign piggys away from the trough.
Hilary would have allowed Foreign and Domestic piggys at the trough.
Trouble is, the trough is shrinking.
Not enough for any piggys
hey ho
Davy on Thu, 17th Nov 2016 7:51 am
“Dollar Illiquidity Getting Critical: A $10 Trillion Short Which The Fed Does Not Understand”
http://tinyurl.com/zq9nuhx
“In the latest report from ADM ISI’s strategy team, “Dollar Liquidity Threat is Getting Critical and Fed is M.I.A.”, Paul Mylchreest argues that mainstream economic luminaries (like Carmen Reinhart) are finally acknowledging the evolving crisis due to the dollar shortage outside the US, a topic which even the head researcher at the BIS shone a spotlight on yesterday suggesting that the strength of the dollar, not the VIX is the new “fear indicator”…. We know the narrative…Trump equals higher inflation, a tailwind for commodities and a headwind for bonds. We are “Endgame Inflationistas”, but declining US dollar liquidity threatens this narrative near-term. Dollar illiquidity is something that even central banks struggle to control, e.g. Swiss Franc peg, BoJ losing control of the Yen and now the PBoC/RMB. The price of the dollar acts like a “Global Fed Funds Rate”. A rising dollar tightens economic conditions globally, adding considerable deflationary pressure.”
Revi on Thu, 17th Nov 2016 8:17 am
I really don’t understand these scenarios. How can we have rising GDP at all? Good luck with that.
Apneaman on Thu, 17th Nov 2016 10:50 am
Ugo & Co are missing one scenario – the one where the poles are in serious meltdown at a speed not one scientist or model predicted. Hey! that’s happen as we speak. Ugo is a hopium pusher at heart.
For the First Time in Human Existence, CO2 Rates Break Records Two Years in a Row
“For perspective, the 1980s and 1990s witnessed annual CO2 increases in the atmosphere of roughly 1.5ppm each year, a rate which had increased roughly 30 percent to 2ppm annually by the 2000s. In other words, thus far, the 2010s are seeing an average rate that will mark another huge increase, to around 2.5ppm annually.”
“In 1998, global CO2 emissions clocked in at approximately 26 billion tons annually, but by 2015 that amount had escalated to approximately 36 billion tons annually.”
http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/38387-for-the-first-time-in-human-existence-co2-rates-break-records-two-years-in-a-row
Apneaman on Thu, 17th Nov 2016 10:52 am
There is No ‘Easy’ Way to Avert the Collapse of Civilization
https://collapseofindustrialcivilization.com/2016/11/16/there-is-no-easy-way-to-avert-the-collapse-of-civilization/
Apneaman on Thu, 17th Nov 2016 11:00 am
Don’t worry little merican buddies, the Canadian Cancer will be with you to the bitter end………..which is much sooner than your brain will allow you to admit. It’s a human thang.
Canada gives $3.3bn subsidies to fossil fuel producers despite climate pledge
Government subsidy to gas and oil companies undermine Trudeau’s plan to put national price on carbon dioxide by 2018, environmental report warned
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/15/climate-change-canada-fossil-fuel-subsidies-carbon-trudeau
Roll out the barrels will have a barrel of fun……..
Apneaman on Thu, 17th Nov 2016 11:03 am
By 2020, automation will have taken over all those blue-collar jobs Trump promised his supporters.
https://www.inverse.com/article/23470-trump-jobs-automation
It’s dem liberal what created them evil godless robots.
Apneaman on Thu, 17th Nov 2016 11:17 am
“Surreal” U.S. Wildfires Should Not be Burning in Mid-November
“It’s a script that reads like something from the pages of a dystopian sci-fi novel:
In Dallas, on November 16, the thermometer hit 88 degrees Fahrenheit, breaking a 95 year old record. In Ada, Oklahoma the mercury struck 85 degrees F. Further north in high-elevation Denver, temperatures soared to 78 F — punching through a 75 year old record.
Meanwhile, strange, out-of-season wildfires continued to burn from the U.S. South to North Dakota and New England. In Atlanta, smoke streaming out of nearby wildfires blanketed the city. Red-eyed residents were increasingly forced to don protective masks beneath the choking late-fall pallor. In Chattanooga, over 200 residents were hospitalized from smoke inhalation and shortness of breath.”
https://robertscribbler.com/2016/11/17/surreal-u-s-wildfires-should-not-be-burning-in-mid-november/
Apneaman on Thu, 17th Nov 2016 11:22 am
North, southwest Sask. break more temperature records The records were:
Hudson Bay reached 15.4 C, breaking the 1981 record of 12.7 C.
Leader reached 22.1, breaking the 1999 record of 21.3 C.
Maple Creek reached 22.8 C, breaking the 1934 record of 20.6 C.
Swift Current reached 21.7 C, breaking the 1999 record of 21 C.
Buffalo Narrows reached 7.1 C, breaking the 1991 record of 6 C.
Collins Bay reached 6.4C, breaking the 1977 record of 1.8 C.
Key Lake reached 5.7 C, breaking the 1981 record of 2.5 C.
Pelican Narrows reached 7.5 C, breaking the 2005 record of 1.7 C.
Stony Rapids reached 5.7 C, breaking the 1977 record of 3.9 C.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatoon/november-12-sask-weather-records-1.3849165
Apneaman on Thu, 17th Nov 2016 11:26 am
Calgary sets November temperature record
http://calgaryherald.com/news/local-news/calgary-sets-november-temperature-record
I was born in cow town in the 60’s and we had already been playing hockey on outdoor rinks for over a month by mid November and your spit would freeze before it hit the ground.
Apneaman on Thu, 17th Nov 2016 11:29 am
Winnipeg breaks 93-year-old record high temp
http://winnipeg.ctvnews.ca/winnipeg-breaks-93-year-old-record-high-temp-1.3153431
Apneaman on Thu, 17th Nov 2016 11:30 am
Record Temperatures Recorded At YYT
http://vocm.com/news/record-temperatures-recorded-at-yyt/
Apneaman on Thu, 17th Nov 2016 11:32 am
Strong winds bring record breaking temperatures into Northeast Kansas
http://ksnt.com/2016/11/17/strong-winds-bring-record-breaking-temperatures-into-northeast-kansas/
It’s the wids fault.
Hey any of you denier tards starting to see a pattern? I thought not.
Apneaman on Thu, 17th Nov 2016 11:34 am
Another high temperature record falls in Pueblo
http://www.chieftain.com/news/pueblo/5342136-120/wednesday-pueblo-nov-degrees?
onlooker on Thu, 17th Nov 2016 12:15 pm
https://robertscribbler.com/2016/11/14/for-the-arctic-ocean-above-80-north-its-still-summer-in-november/
For The Arctic Ocean Above 80 North, It’s Still Summer in November
penury on Thu, 17th Nov 2016 2:11 pm
Why is it that all of the people who have access to Trumps plans seem to be convinced that he will fail. Shrewd move on the “Donalds” part, if anything succeeds he will be hailed as a genius.
onlooker on Thu, 17th Nov 2016 2:25 pm
Yes Dave that is the real secret briefing by the real powers or his handlers to be specific. Begs the question of why we or anybody really pays attention to these puppets.
Apneaman on Thu, 17th Nov 2016 2:32 pm
penury, Trump’s plans will work as long as the system is functioning. It’s a tried and true plan. The same one Obama, Bush, Clintons used. Pay for play and enrich your people and yourself at the expense of the stupid sheeple who voted for you and continue to manipulate their primitive tribal emotions. It’s a little early, but the front runners for Trump’s crew look to be well know scum fucks and contrary to the alt right anti Clinton crowd’s big fears there looks to be no shortage of Neo Cons. Y’all lube up now because your new daddy is going to fuck y’all as hard as ever.
HARM on Thu, 17th Nov 2016 4:23 pm
Wow, Apneaman, you are just a little ray of sunshine, aren’t you?
Why are you trying to harsh the Trumpettes’ post-election buzz? C’mon, man, it’s still the “honeymoon”…
Apneaman on Thu, 17th Nov 2016 6:31 pm
The North Pole is an insane 36 degrees warmer than normal as winter descends
“Political people in the United States are watching the chaos in Washington in the moment. But some people in the science community are watching the chaos somewhere else — the Arctic.”
“What’s happening, he explains, is sort of a “double whammy.” On the one hand, there is a “very warm underlying ocean” due to the lack of sea ice forming above it. But, at the same time, kinks in the jet stream have allowed warm air to flow northward and frigid Arctic air to descend over Siberia.
“The sea ice is at a record low right now, for this time of year, that’s one thing,” Serreze said. “And why it’s so low — again, there’s so much heat in the upper ocean in these ice-free areas, the ice just can’t form right now. The ocean’s just got to get rid of this heat somehow, and it’s having a hard time doing so.””
http://wapo.st/2gmOyQu
All that heat chasing that cold – trying to equalize.
makati1 on Thu, 17th Nov 2016 6:41 pm
The only real difference that is possible is the avoidance of WW3 by the Trump Crew. All else will be more of the same in America until it isn’t. By that, I mean, until it all collapse’ into the big pile of shit it really is.
pinkdotR on Fri, 18th Nov 2016 5:00 am
@Davy – thanks for sharing your thoughts. After reading what you wrote I think I am able to see the political changes around the World as a way of stopping BAU in a more or less planned manner instead of letting it blow up violently. I agree it was inevitable anyway and it is better if we start to degrow before reaching the limits of growth – in terms of oil I prefer to see peak oil demand before peak oil supply.
I just did not expect the change to arrive this way but maybe there wasn’t any other way? I am most worried about living in a scenario written by Mr. Putin because it all looks like that and I don’t believe his intention is to save the World by putting it on a controlled collapse course instead of a destructive one. Yet it is still possible we will get this result despite other goals he has in his mind.
Davy on Fri, 18th Nov 2016 6:00 am
Pinkdot, I am trying to find meaning to what is going on from my life long study of collapse. This is an alternative viewpoint that goes against modern life. A sheeple would consider me a freak and I welcome that label because modern life is insane and I see it. To be honest there are times I feel very alone and ashamed because many normal and wholesome things people believe in I am calling into question. People are already worried then I say something like this to my daughter “If I were you I would not bring kids into this world because pain and suffering is all they will know”. I am a very happy and productive person but I am also a doomer.
This incongruous juxtaposition of a “happy doomer” creates a kind of surreal existence because the social narrative is diametrically opposed to what I am preaching. I am preaching paradoxes of catch 22’s. There is no happiness as in happy endings which modern man wants us to believe. I do offer hope and a strange optimism that we may be able to realize less pain and suffering. We may be able to avoid WWIII. Maybe we can find an end game that is like a hospice as opposed to a firing squad. If we can find a less severe path down through being tricked then that is surely better than a hard and sudden end. I am in no way saying the worst can’t happen. Instead of dwelling on the worst which is very possible I am trying to say we may have a less severe outcome.
To have a less severe outcome the pain must start now as in yesterday. I have no interest in suffering and in many ways dread this outcome of a hastened collapse. Like everyone else I am doing things and have loved ones I don’t want to suffer. In a sense I have an academic side and a normal human side. I don’t preach these things to my family but I do try to lead by example. My life is about relative sacrifice and downsizing with dignity. I am living stoically and trying to be Spartan. I am doing this because this is how you prepare for a future of less. I am trying to get as much as I can out of modern health care. I am taking care of my teeth. I am trying to eat well in a crazy world of bizarre food per a healthy life. I work out and fast twice a week to make my body stronger. I am using the status quo to leave it and this means embracing a car culture and consumerism but with the understanding it will soon be over as we know it. I am talking to you all daily as my mental exercise.
I know many of you don’t have time to read my essays but some do and some may think twice about life. It is my hope that a second look at the status quo may help some people by getting them to adapt sooner to a world of less. I hope I am wrong and there are really miracles but if you are honest you see we are all going to die and this modern human civilization will turn to dust. Most who read what I just said disregard it like a bad smell. Geology will swallow modern man’s evidence up in a few thousand years. We may only have 10-20 years of a wild ride. If you want to be in the front of that ride keep living the status quo. If you want to be in the back when the train hits the wall adapt and change. Both places on the runaway train will kill you but one will likely kill sooner and one maybe later. That is my humble view and what I am preaching.