Guy certainly has not pulled back from his story, in fact it seems to have gotten even sooner and worse.
I take his view as being near the extremes of what could happen. Sadly, it is within the bounds of reality as we understand it and a lack of complete understanding could be extremely dangerous in this situation.
The head of NASA a number of years ago, Gold, went out to the computer designers and manufacturers. He gave them hell, told them they were sitting on their laurals when the world needed much better and different computer systems. He was interested in setting up a global network of sensor systems and the amount of computing capacity needed was several magnitudes higher than the then current systems.
That did not happen, so even our data gathering is highly limited let alone our understanding. Of course we understand the basic physics, but we cannot pin down the many variables and thus determine the timing and degree of global warming. So in a way, we are wandering into the darkness. The darkness of lack of commitment and lack of knowledge.
Last week Guy came to Chicago and did a couple appearances, also staying with me at my house. The man knows his stuff, we need to pay heed to his warnings. In the coming years there will be hell to pay. The younger generations are going to be really angry. Global climate change is upon us and the ramifications are being ignored by the powers that be. Having daily conversations one on one with Guy just made it all the more apparent, the human race is done for. Sooner then later. https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=10202574863511276
Kenz300 on Mon, 7th Apr 2014 4:24 am
The Koch brothers need more money……. the billions they already have are not enough……… (for them)
The RepubliCON party and their billionaire funders of deniers are making any contribution to a solution impossible to pass in Congress.
Greedy, selfish, self centered, evil people are blocking any progress ……………
GregT on Mon, 7th Apr 2014 5:39 am
Kenz,
At this point in time, it would appear that the only ‘solution’ is a complete collapse of modern industrial society, and the massive reduction in populations that would follow. Somehow I don’t see congress passing legislation to that effect.
In any event, whether Dr. McPherson et al are correct in their views or not, where we are headed can hardly be described as progress.
Meld on Mon, 7th Apr 2014 3:18 pm
@ Dave Thompson – you said “the younger generations are going to be really angry” you got that right, As part of my peak oil preparations I am involving myself in as many youth based organisations as possible in my community. When they march on the middle aged (french revolution style) I’m going to be right there on the front lines with them.
Davy, Hermann, MO on Mon, 7th Apr 2014 3:45 pm
MELD SAID – @ Dave Thompson – you said “the younger generations are going to be really angry”
Yea Meld, typical Human nature maybe but is it justified? No, in a self-organizing system like what our global system has developed into what can you expect. With a species with the “evolutionary dead end” large brain obsessed with knowledge, technology, and associated complexity what do you expect to develop? Our species is unbalanced with hyper-development without the necessary ethical controls offering checks. The side of human nature to be ethical, fair, and moral is only good for small groups of tribe, family and very small communities. This is human history in a nutshell. Can you call the last 10,000 years as the only human history? Our brains have not had time to evolve from our 1000’s of generations as hunter gathers. The coming bottleneck may bring evolution if we are lucky or extinction if we are not. “Or” it will be a return to our roots as hunter gathers again in the ruins of an ecosystem. This higher human nature works relatively well through democracy and healthy markets when all is well and everyone has plenty. The higher elements of human spirit do not work from the top down when times turn bad. Hence a world like we have today of population overshoot, national self-interest, greed, wealth transfer, degradation of the commons, and ultimately overt or disguised genocide. We see the higher spirit and nature of humans in the bottom up. We see this today with all the lifeboat movements, permaculture, transition towns, and gift economies. Which side will win, well, ultimately the bottom up but with a greatly reduced population. The top will be whisked away eventually like dust on a windy day. So, let these youth get upset. It will last until they destroy their local environment and they feel starvation and deprivation. Those areas of life boats with already enlightened youth will have a better chance at survival. Another reason to relocate out of mega population zones folks…the vengeance of the youth!
J-Gav on Mon, 7th Apr 2014 4:30 pm
McPherson lays it on the line pretty clearly and it ain’t a pretty sight. However, the studies he references are not the only ones out there and some of their conclusions depend on events which are unpredictable (eg, when will a large-scale methane burp occur? When will the next big El Niño come along? Just how fast are ocean and air currents shifting? What if we get multiple or one huge volcanic eruption? …). The future is full of uncertainties and I think pulling out a 2040 date as crunch time for all humanity is a risky proposition at best. Still, by the time the next generation gets old (supposing they’re allowed that privilege), it’s a pretty safe bet they’ll be living in a vastly changed world, one way or another. Too many convergences coming to conclude otherwise.
TemplarMyst on Mon, 7th Apr 2014 4:35 pm
I’ve been following Guy for some time now. It is just so hard for me to wrap my head around what he has been saying. If you follow his Climate Change Summary and Update blog post it just gets worse, and worse, and worse.
For a while I thought if we were to build out nuclear power plants hooked to massive air filters which feed chemical processing plants, we might be able to pull enough CO2, CH4, NOx, SOx and other GHGs down and process them into something either inert (matrix solids) or useful (hydrocarbon fuels) to make a dent. The actinides are extremely energy dense, and Pandora’s Promise and Radioactive Wolves convinced me they are significantly safer than generally believed.
I just don’t know now. The climate impacts are going exponential. Guy thinks mebbe ten or fifteen more years and we’ll be at 3 or 4C above baseline.
Not nearly enough time to do anything at all, really. Still, I think it might be useful to develop the type of technology I indicated on a test basis, just in case we have 40 or 50 years instead of 10 or 15 years.
This stuff is just so mind boggling. I don’t have kids, but damn, I feel for those who do, and for those kids!!!
Makati1 on Mon, 7th Apr 2014 12:41 am
Always good to be reminded of reality.
rollin on Mon, 7th Apr 2014 12:43 am
Guy certainly has not pulled back from his story, in fact it seems to have gotten even sooner and worse.
I take his view as being near the extremes of what could happen. Sadly, it is within the bounds of reality as we understand it and a lack of complete understanding could be extremely dangerous in this situation.
The head of NASA a number of years ago, Gold, went out to the computer designers and manufacturers. He gave them hell, told them they were sitting on their laurals when the world needed much better and different computer systems. He was interested in setting up a global network of sensor systems and the amount of computing capacity needed was several magnitudes higher than the then current systems.
That did not happen, so even our data gathering is highly limited let alone our understanding. Of course we understand the basic physics, but we cannot pin down the many variables and thus determine the timing and degree of global warming. So in a way, we are wandering into the darkness. The darkness of lack of commitment and lack of knowledge.
Dave Thompson on Mon, 7th Apr 2014 2:26 am
Last week Guy came to Chicago and did a couple appearances, also staying with me at my house. The man knows his stuff, we need to pay heed to his warnings. In the coming years there will be hell to pay. The younger generations are going to be really angry. Global climate change is upon us and the ramifications are being ignored by the powers that be. Having daily conversations one on one with Guy just made it all the more apparent, the human race is done for. Sooner then later. https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=10202574863511276
Kenz300 on Mon, 7th Apr 2014 4:24 am
The Koch brothers need more money……. the billions they already have are not enough……… (for them)
The RepubliCON party and their billionaire funders of deniers are making any contribution to a solution impossible to pass in Congress.
Greedy, selfish, self centered, evil people are blocking any progress ……………
GregT on Mon, 7th Apr 2014 5:39 am
Kenz,
At this point in time, it would appear that the only ‘solution’ is a complete collapse of modern industrial society, and the massive reduction in populations that would follow. Somehow I don’t see congress passing legislation to that effect.
In any event, whether Dr. McPherson et al are correct in their views or not, where we are headed can hardly be described as progress.
Meld on Mon, 7th Apr 2014 3:18 pm
@ Dave Thompson – you said “the younger generations are going to be really angry” you got that right, As part of my peak oil preparations I am involving myself in as many youth based organisations as possible in my community. When they march on the middle aged (french revolution style) I’m going to be right there on the front lines with them.
Davy, Hermann, MO on Mon, 7th Apr 2014 3:45 pm
MELD SAID – @ Dave Thompson – you said “the younger generations are going to be really angry”
Yea Meld, typical Human nature maybe but is it justified? No, in a self-organizing system like what our global system has developed into what can you expect. With a species with the “evolutionary dead end” large brain obsessed with knowledge, technology, and associated complexity what do you expect to develop? Our species is unbalanced with hyper-development without the necessary ethical controls offering checks. The side of human nature to be ethical, fair, and moral is only good for small groups of tribe, family and very small communities. This is human history in a nutshell. Can you call the last 10,000 years as the only human history? Our brains have not had time to evolve from our 1000’s of generations as hunter gathers. The coming bottleneck may bring evolution if we are lucky or extinction if we are not. “Or” it will be a return to our roots as hunter gathers again in the ruins of an ecosystem. This higher human nature works relatively well through democracy and healthy markets when all is well and everyone has plenty. The higher elements of human spirit do not work from the top down when times turn bad. Hence a world like we have today of population overshoot, national self-interest, greed, wealth transfer, degradation of the commons, and ultimately overt or disguised genocide. We see the higher spirit and nature of humans in the bottom up. We see this today with all the lifeboat movements, permaculture, transition towns, and gift economies. Which side will win, well, ultimately the bottom up but with a greatly reduced population. The top will be whisked away eventually like dust on a windy day. So, let these youth get upset. It will last until they destroy their local environment and they feel starvation and deprivation. Those areas of life boats with already enlightened youth will have a better chance at survival. Another reason to relocate out of mega population zones folks…the vengeance of the youth!
J-Gav on Mon, 7th Apr 2014 4:30 pm
McPherson lays it on the line pretty clearly and it ain’t a pretty sight. However, the studies he references are not the only ones out there and some of their conclusions depend on events which are unpredictable (eg, when will a large-scale methane burp occur? When will the next big El Niño come along? Just how fast are ocean and air currents shifting? What if we get multiple or one huge volcanic eruption? …). The future is full of uncertainties and I think pulling out a 2040 date as crunch time for all humanity is a risky proposition at best. Still, by the time the next generation gets old (supposing they’re allowed that privilege), it’s a pretty safe bet they’ll be living in a vastly changed world, one way or another. Too many convergences coming to conclude otherwise.
TemplarMyst on Mon, 7th Apr 2014 4:35 pm
I’ve been following Guy for some time now. It is just so hard for me to wrap my head around what he has been saying. If you follow his Climate Change Summary and Update blog post it just gets worse, and worse, and worse.
For a while I thought if we were to build out nuclear power plants hooked to massive air filters which feed chemical processing plants, we might be able to pull enough CO2, CH4, NOx, SOx and other GHGs down and process them into something either inert (matrix solids) or useful (hydrocarbon fuels) to make a dent. The actinides are extremely energy dense, and Pandora’s Promise and Radioactive Wolves convinced me they are significantly safer than generally believed.
I just don’t know now. The climate impacts are going exponential. Guy thinks mebbe ten or fifteen more years and we’ll be at 3 or 4C above baseline.
Not nearly enough time to do anything at all, really. Still, I think it might be useful to develop the type of technology I indicated on a test basis, just in case we have 40 or 50 years instead of 10 or 15 years.
This stuff is just so mind boggling. I don’t have kids, but damn, I feel for those who do, and for those kids!!!
RICHARD RALPH ROEHL on Mon, 7th Apr 2014 9:00 pm
Where there is no insight, the sheeple perish.