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Page added on January 11, 2013
The World Population Will Begin to Shrink by 2070
End of the world catastrophe scenes are as silly as they are fascinating. Acid rain was once a concern, but it proved mostly imaginary. The ranges of forests it was supposed to destroy in Germany were if anything fertilized by such rain. And so it seems all this sci-fi hoopla about the world overpopulating is just as much nonsense. Perhaps there is some sense of global capacity built into our reproductive instincts? Whatever the case, research shows that this year we hit our 7 billionth living person, and that when we hit our 9 billionth, the population will actually start to shrink.
The reason for this is that birthrates are down everywhere. In Germany, the rate is 1.36, whereas 2.1 is what is required to sustain a population. Spain is at 1.48 and Italy 1.4. Even American, who depended on immigrants and their tendencies to have lots of babies have seen lower birth rates in those immigrants. The Pew Research Center found that immigrants fell from 102 per 1,000 women in 2007 to 87.8 per 1,000 in 2012, leaving this overall U.S. birthrate at only 64 per 1,000 women — statistics given by an article in Slate magazine — and that is not enough to sustain us.
Mexico dropped from 7.3 to 2.4, India from 6 to 2.5, Brazil from 6.15 to 1.9. The explanation given is explained under the term “demographic transition.”
“For hundreds of thousands of years,” says Warren Sanderson, professor of economics at Stony Brook University, “in order for humanity to survive things like epidemics and wars and famine, birthrates had to be very high.” When death rates decreased, we see “a shift between two very different long-run states: from high death rates and high birthrates to low death rates and low birthrates.” This predicts what we see now, that most the world — more than half — is producing lower than sustainable population. Along these lines, the world is likely to meet its apogee in 2070, and then start to shrink a little.
The writer of the Slate article follows some linear thinking into some silly conclusions that we might go extinct if we keep this up, as if there wasn’t give and take on these matters, as if we should make a reverse-Malthusian conclusion. “If things continue at the rate they are going….” But they never do. The species and nature itself offers a system of checks and balances which should save us all from reverting to any draconian population control methods like China, and also, hopefully, keep us from creating any fertility factories.
15 Comments on "The World Population Will Begin to Shrink by 2070"
Arthur on Fri, 11th Jan 2013 2:01 am
And then there is peak-oil, a factor not mentioned in the article…
BillT on Fri, 11th Jan 2013 3:25 am
Arthur, there is a lot not mentioned. someone had nothing to do so they wrote a junk article with nothing of substance, got a pay check and went home.
2070 is 58 years away. That is like forever in today’s world. By then, there will be maybe 1 billion or much less of us humans wandering a much different world. If the recent findings and projections by climatologists are even close, we will be living in a 5-6 degree C. hotter world than now. That is past the limit for most life on this earth. It means deserts in the grain baskets of the world. Acid oceans. Low oxygen in the air. By 2070, there may not be any of us left.
Kenz300 on Fri, 11th Jan 2013 5:16 am
High unemployment rate in the US and Europe…….
There are over a billion people around the world living on less than $2 a day………..
If you can not provide for yourself you can not provide for a child.
Endless population growth is not sustainable.
jaki on Fri, 11th Jan 2013 6:37 am
unless otherwise mankind reach you’re imaginary date of 2070, like eating a delicious piece of cake….
graham on Fri, 11th Jan 2013 12:08 pm
I predict it’ll start shrinking a fair bit before 2070.
Arthur on Fri, 11th Jan 2013 4:31 pm
Yeah, like in a couple of years…
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/9737
ken nohe on Sat, 12th Jan 2013 3:56 am
The article is not wrong in criticizing linear thinking but it is incomplete. This said, who can pretend to be capable of taking everything into consideration?
Acid ocean? There are still basic right now. The change measured is below 0.1 towards acidity. The ocean is a big place so it is significant but the move is very small.
Low oxygen in the air? Oxygen level will not change whatever the amount of CO2. We are currently at 398 ppm (part per million) of CO2 in the atmosphere. A doubling to 800 would be huge and still less than 0.1%.(Current is 0.039%,
Oxygen is 20.95%)
Population is already declining in some countries, -210,000 people in Japan last year and lower reproduction rates insure that it will soon start declining in many more countries… but not fast enough! Something nasty is bound to happen.
ken nohe on Sat, 12th Jan 2013 4:14 am
PS: Some of the readers on this site will probably “enjoy” this article for the British Royal Society:
“Can a collapse of global civilization be avoided?”
http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/280/1754/20122845
(It can be accessed and downloaded free of charge.)
GregT on Sat, 12th Jan 2013 4:15 pm
Ken,
While I do not exactly consider this article to be “enjoyable”, I do consider it to be intelligent and well written. I hope that everyone here takes the time to read it.
Kenz300 on Sat, 12th Jan 2013 5:15 pm
Too many people and too few resources……
Access to family planning services needs to be available to all that want it.
It is amazing that the poorest people in the world seem to be having the most children trapping them in a life of hunger, poverty and despair.
Countries that do not develop a plan to balance their populations with their resources, food, water, energy and jobs will be exporting their populations and their problems.
Poordogabone on Sun, 13th Jan 2013 12:50 am
Ken don’t forget that an american kid uses about 15 times more resources than a kid say from Ethiopia or Bangladesh.
His carbon foot print is 200 times higher.
But sleep with a good conscience tonight, it’s of course all those poor third worlders that are the problem. You sound like fox news. Did it ever occurred to you that if we had not raped the under developed world by pillaging their resources,propping up bullshit figure heads and trapping them in debt, they might have come out decently wealthy and able to take care of their own?
ken nohe on Sun, 13th Jan 2013 2:11 am
“Poor”whatever, It is certain that America over consumes. “Pillaging” or “rape” are probably over-statements since natural resources have no value without the intelligence to make them fructify; that is 300 years of industrial revolution.
In 1950, the population of Ethiopia was 18.4 million. Today it is closing on 90 million and should reach 174 million in 2050. In 1950, Korea was about as poor as Ethiopia and poorer than Chad. Today it is a developed country in spite of a much higher level of “exploitation” by the US. There has to be more than just “that” to the story.
PoBoyDoggone on Sun, 13th Jan 2013 4:14 pm
Poor because they’re stupid? Countries that be always poor forever?
Could be feeding and giving medicine to always poor country be doing the wrong thing? Just always taking, know what I mean?
ken nohe on Sun, 13th Jan 2013 11:34 pm
Yes stupid and greedy. Their “elites” instead of developing their countries, as we do in Asia, live in luxury, half in enclosed islands of prosperity, half in London and Paris. This has nothing to do with individual or the color of their skin as Obama proves on a daily basis and everything to do with “cultures” which are inimical to development. Africa is a lost cause of inability and incompetence. After 30 years of complete “autonomy” with exactly “zero” interference from the outside, Somalia is back to the stone age with “technical” roaming the streets of Mogadishu. Great achievement. Without mentioning Congo where women get raped by one “army” in the morning and another one in the afternoon. Or Sierra Leone…
The reality is that Africa is very close to the original state of humanity. It is not as such a disgrace that their are still mired in backwardness, so much as a miracle that the rest of humanity succeeded in getting out of it by the bootstraps!
Poordogabone on Wed, 23rd Jan 2013 5:09 pm
poboydoggone, I hope we are not related. Thinking of changing my name.
Ypur quote:
“Poor because they’re stupid? Countries that be always poor forever?”…”Just always taking”
-1 fyi We take much more from those “stupid” countries than we give them, always have, they have in fact subsidized our way of living.
-2 Good news, Xenophobia has a cure: Education.
_3 Bad news, Lack of imagination has no cure.