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Page added on September 6, 2014
The West Without Water
Dr. B. Lynn Ingram is a professor in the Department of Earth and Planetary Science at UC Berkeley, California. The primary goal of her research is to assess how climates and environments have changed over the past several thousand years based on the geochemical and sedimentologic analysis of aquatic sediments and archaeological deposits, with a particular focus on the US West.
She is the co-author of “The West without Water: What Past Floods, Droughts, and Other Climatic Clues Tell Us about Tomorrow” together with Dr. Frances Malamud-Roam, which received great reviews.
In this interview, Dr. Ingram shares her thoughts on the current drought in the US Southwest within the larger climate record and potential implications for the future.
E. Tavares: Thank you for sharing your thoughts with us today. Your research focuses on long-range geoclimatic trends using a broad sample of historical records. In this sense, “The West without Water”, which we vividly recommend reading, provides a very grounded perspective on the weather outlook for the US Southwest going forward. So let’s start there. What prompted you to write this book?
L. Ingram: My co-author and I decided to write this book because our findings, and those of our colleagues, were all showing that over the past several thousand years, California and the West have experienced extremes in climate that we have not seen in modern history – the past 150 years or so. Floods and droughts far more catastrophic than we can even imagine. We felt it was important to bring these findings to the attention of the broader public, as these events tend to repeat themselves. So we need to prepare, just as we prepare for large earthquakes in California.
ET: When you say “West”, which regions are you referring to?
LI: In the book we focus on the climate history of California and the Southwest, but also bring in examples and comparisons with other western states as appropriate (such as Oregon and Washington, Nevada, Utah, etc.), as the entire region experiences similar storms and is controlled by similar climate that originates in the Pacific Ocean.
ET: What type of evidence have you used in reaching your conclusions? How accurate are these records?
LI: In the book we bring together many lines of evidence, ranging from tree-ring records to sediment cored from beneath lakes, estuaries, and the ocean. Paleoclimatologists – those that study past climate change using geologic evidence – study various aspects of these cores, including the fossils in them, the chemistry of the fossils and the sediments, and pollen and charcoal remains. The charcoal provides evidence about past wildfires. The archaeological record also contains important clues about past climate and environments and how they impacted human populations.
ET: Can you walk us through some of the major climatic events of the past thousand years in that part of the US? How unusual was the 20 century in that context?
LI: We had a relatively dry period during the Medieval Warm Period, 900-1400AD. There were several prolonged periods of drought that lasted decades to over a century during that time. That period was followed by a cooler, wetter period (the Little Ice Age) that continued until the 19 century. However, the tree-ring records suggest that the 20 century was unusually wet, meaning we had fewer droughts on average than the previous 1000 years.
ET: Based on what you just described, what the current drought may be telling us is that we could be seeing the start of a decadal “mean reversion” to much drier conditions going forward. Is this correct?
LI: Yes – actually the past decade in California and the West has been pretty dry, and the concern is that these climate conditions could continue for several more decades. We’ve seen these broader cycles of wet-dry in the past.
ET: And what drives the long-term climate variability in the West?
LI: Over the long-term, natural climate variations are driven by a number of factors, including the ocean temperatures in the north Pacific (the so-called “Pacific Decadal Oscillation”), the El Nino Southern Oscillation, sunspots and even slight changes in the earth’s orbit over thousands of years. Volcanic eruptions can also impact climate. The human-caused increase in greenhouse gases is also impacting our climate, on top of those natural causes, and warming will have a number of affects, including reduced snowpack, drier soils and vegetations and increased wildfires.
ET: Presumably there were Native American populations who went through those protracted periods of dryness. How did they manage to survive? Is there anything we can learn from that?
LI: Actually during the medieval droughts, the Ancestral Pueblo or Anasazi civilization that inhabited the four corners region, whose populations had grown during the wetter periods leading up to the droughts, suffered greatly. There is evidence for conflict, disease and finally mass migration out of their region. The native populations in California also had increased violence, malnutrition and abandoned sites in search of water and other resources. We can learn that even during the wetter times we need to prepare for the eventual dry climate that always follows, as that is the nature of our variable climate here.
ET: These findings are quite concerning. Of course we have the benefit of advanced technologies now. Can human intervention help counter the adverse effects of a prolonged drought?
LI: We will surely have to begin some serious adoption of water conservation technologies (like water efficient appliances, recycling of treated wastewater, desalination, etc.) as part of a comprehensive strategy to adapt to water scarcity.
ET: Such measures can be quite unpopular. While your climate research suggests much drier days ahead, people may still think that at some point the rains will come back like they always have. So why ration water now? If you were a political decision-maker, how do you get past that perception and help focus people’s attention on the long-term risks? What should everyone be thinking about right now?
LI: We have still been using more water than the supply – in California each year we use about 6 million acre-feet from pumping groundwater, which takes a very long time to replenish. Farmers have been using groundwater with no regulation or monitoring in the Central Valley – drawing down the water table.
As our population grows as it’s expected to, we will need to begin serious water conservation and recycling even in the absence of a prolonged drought. This will clearly take a comprehensive plan that involves everyone. A recent analysis by the Pacific Institute outlines water management strategies that could potentially conserve 14 million acre-feet of water per year, which would be hugely beneficial (1).
ET: If you had to ascribe a probability of severely dry decades in the West occurring over the foreseeable future, what would it be?
LI: A team of researchers have analyzed past and present climate change and shown that there is a 50 to 60 percent chance of a 35-year drought occurring in the West.
ET: That’s a very high probability! And as you look at the historical record, what is the worst case scenario for the region? California in particular is such an important state for the US and indeed the world, so the consequences of a prolonged drought could be far reaching. As a state resident, what keeps you up at night? What other states could also be impacted?
LI: The worst case scenario is a repeat of the medieval droughts, which would primarily impact California and the Southwest. The past decade has been very dry in this region, and if it continues for more decades, that would be very difficult.
I also worry about a mega-flood hitting the region, as we’ve seen every one to two centuries. The last one was in 1861-62, and filled the entire Central Valley (350 miles long and 20 miles wide) with water 20 feet deep. This was caused by 43 days of rain from atmospheric river storms.
ET: And with that, here’s my last question. Are you planning to move out of California at some point? Where would you move to? And if it comes to that, which we hope not, what is the signal for people to start getting out of Dodge (perhaps literally in this case)?
LI: I love California too much to leave! I just hope that if the state begins a serious and comprehensive effort, we will be prepared to make it through the dry periods.
20 Comments on "The West Without Water"
J-Gav on Sat, 6th Sep 2014 4:59 pm
Ooh! That’s a nasty one! 35 years? All 4 of my brothers live in drought-prone areas (California, West Texas, New Mexico). Here in France it seems we’re to expect warmer winter temps (though we haven’t had a really cold one for a while in most parts of the country. 1988 was pretty nippy if I remember correctly), and more precipitation than usual …
Davy on Sat, 6th Sep 2014 7:45 pm
I highly recommend the book. I have always enjoyed climate reads and this was and excellent one.
dashster on Sat, 6th Sep 2014 7:55 pm
California had a bad drought in the early 1980’s. This one is supposed to be worse. In the 80’s drought they were much stricter on water restrictions and implemented them sooner. They must have figured out a way to get more water since the population has continually increased since then.
But one thing that happened back then was that there was a momentary association between population growth an finite resources. They put a temporary halt on construction, at least residential. They may be holding and have held off as long as possible on restrictions such as using water to clean your driveway, in order to hold off cries for construction halts.
DMyers on Sat, 6th Sep 2014 8:18 pm
Certain cycles and random downers are going to occur on this Earth, in spite, and regardless, of human beings.
The sad and horrible thing is, a natural catastrophe could even strike: “right when we were really having a good time!”
Edward J Wood on Sat, 6th Sep 2014 8:40 pm
So which is it going to be? The polar ice caps melt, sea levels rise, and the land is flooded? Or it quits raining and the land is parched? Or will it be both at the same time? With global warming, anything is possible.
Makati1 on Sat, 6th Sep 2014 8:59 pm
We live in exciting times, but I would not want to live in California now. Faults, volcanoes, floods, droughts, and the largest collection of insanity west of the Mississippi.
kenny on Sat, 6th Sep 2014 10:15 pm
The historical record of natural climate change is clear. California politicians and the people who elected them ignored the real science. California should have been prepared for the drought. Climatology, at least the current models, has been proven to be false. Everything Gore promised is wrong. Politics destroyed science and the people of California will pay for it.
JuanP on Sun, 7th Sep 2014 10:29 am
It’s amazing how many things coincided perfectly in the 20th century to provide us with the perfect circumstances for us to destroy the planet as a consequence of our excesses. Even the rainfall in the US Southwest was better than ever in the 20th century. It’s as if there was a higher power trying to make sure we destroy ourselves.
Maybe it is time for me to wonder whether intelligent aliens are behind this. 🙂
If you are reading this now, please kidnap me, I am an intelligent alien, too!
J-Gav on Sun, 7th Sep 2014 10:38 am
Good one, JuanP!
Ye-ez, I sometimes see them in my sleep – little green bastards with huge heads …
JuanP on Sun, 7th Sep 2014 11:22 am
Good article. Nice interview. Nothing new, but can’t be said enough.
My perspective on this is that this is what will do us in as a species. The consequences of Global Warming and Climate change I have always feared the most are continuous megadroughts alternating with megafloods. Based on what I’ve read on the subject, the whole world faces this predicament.
Water management will become increasingly important for people’s survival. I have spent around a year and a half of my life in California and the Southwest, and have been following this drought since it started. If the next decade is like the last, we are in trouble.
My wife and I loved the Anazasi dwellings and the Four Corners area. We’ve been there four times. I have always been fascinated by primitive cultures and technologies in general, and cave dwellings in particular, being a Third Worlder and what not. 🙂
I will know people are taking this seriously when lawns are made illegal and rainwater collection legal in the affected areas. California and the Southwest are in for very bad times, IMO.
synapsid on Sun, 7th Sep 2014 2:29 pm
JuanP,
It was during some of the wetter times in the early 20th Century that the baseline studies for the Colorado River Compact were done. Based on the amounts recorded, the flow of the Colorado was parceled out to the states in the watershed, and those portions established in law. The states have legal claim to more water than the river carries on average.
Some time later Mexico pointed out that Mexico was getting no water at all as a result of the way the Compact divided up the flow, and provisions were made to make sure that some water crossed the border, but the volume was nothing like the former flow. The delta of the Colorado, which is in Mexico, had been one of the great, rich wetlands of the world, but it dried up. There was an experimental release of water from dams on the Colorado earlier this year, aiming to help rejuvenate some of the Delta. It’s a beginning, maybe, but the whole drainage of the Colorado is seeing groundwater being used up as well as declining river flow. (Groundwater keeps rivers flowing in the dry season, in semiarid regions, when runoff from precipitation is insufficient to do the job. To find that the groundwater in the watershed of the Colorado is declining in volume–that is terrifying.)
Many farmers in the region have sold their water rights for large sums in hand, and quit farming.
Kenz300 on Sun, 7th Sep 2014 4:41 pm
Yet the world adds 80 million more people to feed, provide water for, house and provide energy for every year.
Endless population growth is not sustainable.
Overpopulation facts – the problem no one will discuss: Alexandra Paul at TEDxTopanga – YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNxctzyNxC0
Mike999 on Sun, 7th Sep 2014 4:42 pm
Right wing nuts:
1) The south-west drought has been going on for 5 years now.
2) It’s not California, it’s not the southwest, it’s the US and the WORLD. This is a Global Drought. A Global Global Warming Drought.
3) This isn’t “natural variability”, NASA has shown the changes in the Jet Stream, caused by the 2 degree warming in the pacific. The East Coast of the US is enjoying cool air from the Arctic, and the West Coast gets drought.
And Al Gore was wrong, because all the climate models UNDERESTIMATE the rate of climate change. And that the change isn’t going to be Linear, it’s going to be Geometric.
You’re going to get Hockey Sticks Up the A**, if you don’t get a GED soon.
Stop voting for Stupid, and if you can’t do that, then Stop Voting, because you’re Killing Yourselves with your stupidity.
Mike999 on Sun, 7th Sep 2014 4:43 pm
US Drought Monitor:
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu
Mike999 on Sun, 7th Sep 2014 4:44 pm
China: The Worst Drought in 50 Years.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/worst-drought-in-half-a-century-hits-chinas-bread-basket-2014-08-13
Mike999 on Sun, 7th Sep 2014 4:44 pm
Pictures for the GED Challenged.
http://content.time.com/time/photogallery/0,29307,1976923,00.html
Mike999 on Sun, 7th Sep 2014 4:48 pm
You Tea Party Nuts:
YOUR Party On Record to Kill Social Security.
http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2010/03/30/89337/teaparty-social-security/
Gee, why isn’t this on Fox Propaganda?
Because, your the sucker at the poker table, and the 1% know it, they have NO Respect for you.
Kenz300 on Sun, 7th Sep 2014 7:05 pm
RepubliCONS want to end Social Security and Medicare but the Faux Noise viewers never hear about it.
Faux noise viewers and the Tea Party are just sheep being led to the slaughter by the top 1% and the RepubliCON party.
What has a RepubliCON ever done for anyone but the top 1%.
Now they have moved on from abortion and want to end contraception availability…………….
GregT on Mon, 8th Sep 2014 12:40 am
Building large mega-cities in historically dry areas, with a need to divert entire river systems, was not exactly an intelligent idea.
Add to that major fault lines, and a history of violent seismic activity, and you have a very good recipe for disaster.
The Pacific Southwest is in for an extremely unpleasant future. Far more so than the rest of North America.
Kenz300 on Mon, 8th Sep 2014 6:59 pm
Oil, coal and nuclear power generating facilities require huge amounts of water to produce electricity.
Wind and solar generating power plants require little or no water to generate electricity.
Seems like a good place to start saving water.