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The Seneca Rebound: why Growth is Faster after Collapse. Explaining the European World Dominance
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The Middle Ages are sometimes referred to as the “Dark Ages” — this is mostly untrue, but it is not wrong to apply this term to the early Middle Ages. According to some estimates, in 650 AD the European population had shrunk to a historical minimum of some 18 million people, about half of what it had been during the high times of the Roman Empire. If you think that today the European population is estimated to be as more than 700 million people, it is almost impossible for us to imagine the Europe of the early Middle Ages: it was a minor appendage of the Eurasian continent, a poverty-stricken place, nearly empty of people, where nothing happened except for the squabbles of local warlords fighting each other.
Yet, a few centuries later, the descendants of the inhabitants of this backward peninsula of Eurasia embarked in the attempt of conquering the world and were successful at that. By the 19th century, practically all the world was under the direct or indirect control of European countries or of their American offspring, the United States. How could it happen?
The conventional explanation for the European ruling of the world has to do with factors in various ways related to the “white man’s burden“, a term invented by Rudyard Kipling in 1899. According to this interpretation, the European domination was a sort of manifest destiny generated by the superior qualities — genetic or cultural — of the European people in terms of being smarter, more laborious, better organized, driven by their Christian faith, and the like, in comparison with the populations of the rest of world, described as being lazy, disorganized, uncultured, and in the grip of superstitions.
Maybe, but the idea that the Europeans conquered the world because they are smarter than the others is not supported by any data. Europeans may find it flattering, but it is an ad hoc interpretation that doesn’t help us understand the real reasons for the European explosion. I have been scratching my head for quite a while, until I stumbled into this graph, showing two drastic “Seneca Collapses” of the European population — I think it is the key to explain the European expansion.
Note first of all that the data are uncertain and not all authors see the population drop in the European population to have been as drastic as Langer does. In any case, there is a general agreement that a drastic collapse of the European population took place starting in mid 14th century AD. The collapse is often attributed to the spread of the “black death,” a continent-wide epidemics of plague. In reality, there may have been several factors that led the European population to crash down so badly, including famines and a widespread economic crisis. Less drastic was the population crash plague that hit Europe in mid 17th century, but there is no doubt that it took place together with a new outburst of the plague. These two Seneca Collapses followed the first one in European history, which took place with the fall of the Roman Empire during the 6th-10th centuries AD. For this collapse, we have very scant data, but it may have halved the European population. Let’s now go a little more in detail in examining these collapses.
The first collapse (from the 5th to the 8th century). As soon as the European economy started recovering, the Europeans engaged in the “crusades”, an attempt to expand in the region that we call today the “Middle East.” For some three centuries, a series of successive waves of European armies attacked the region creating a number of European kingdoms in the area. The result was, ultimately, a failure, and the European crusades withered with the mid-14th century.
The Second collapse (mid-14th century). As soon as Europe started recovering from the effects of the great plague, a new phase of expansion started: it was the age of exploration that we may consider starting with the discovery of the island of Madeira in 1430 and then proceeding with a remarkable burst of explorations that lasted for about a century from mid 15th century to mid 6th. This burst included Columbus’ travel of 1492 and the start of the gradual expansion of Europeans in Africa and in the Americas.
The Third Collapse (mid-17th century). In this case, we don’t see such drastic changes as for the 1st and the 2nd collapse: the Europeans had not stopped expanding before the collapse. But, with the restart of population growth, we see a new phase of economic growth which ushered the age of coal and, with it, the “age of divergence” when Europe truly conquered the rest of the world and started thinking of themselves as carrying the “white man’s burden.”
So, there is clearly a pattern here: the expansion of the European social system didn’t go on smoothly but in bursts. Over some two millennia and a half, the European population grew from a few tens of millions up to the current 700 million people. In the process, it underwent at least three bad crashes but, every time, it restarted growing. Note the “Seneca shape” of the crashes: decline is faster than growth, that’s the characteristics of the “Seneca Effect“ – note also how growth rapidly restarts after the crash: this is what I call the Seneca Rebound.
At this point, I would propose that the European conquest of the world was the result of the Seneca Rebound, that is of the phase of strong economic growth that followed the three historical crashes (in particular the second one). In turn, this phase of strong economic growth was the result of the population collapse freeing resources that had been overexploited before the crash. Note how
In ancient times, before the fossil fuel age, society had two main natural resources to exploit: fertile soil and forests. Both tend to be depleted by population growth, but a population collapse frees some previously cultivated land for forests to regrow. At this point, when the population starts re-growing, people find the new forests as a near-pristine source of wood and — once cut — of fertile soil. Trees provide the wood for ships and the charcoal made from wood provides the material needed to make steel for weapons. Not for nothing, it was said that England had conquered an empire with ships of wood and men of iron. Forests are the basic resource needed to conquer the world and the Europeans exploited them effectively.
But how was it that the Europeans were better than others at exploiting their forests? As always, there is a question of timing, opportunities, and luck. On the opposite side of the Mediterranean, the Arab civilization was technologically as sophisticated as the European one, but their climate didn’t allow forests to grow. The American civilizations we call “pre-Columbian” had forests, but they hadn’t yet developed the technologies of steel and of oceanic ships. The Chinese had the technologies and also the forests and, indeed, they embarked in a parallel phase of explorations. During the 12th-13th centuries an outbreak of the same plague that had affected Europe caused a decline in the Chinese population, that was followed – possibly as a consequence – by the Mongol invasion which led to the fall of the Song dynasty. When the Chinese economy experienced its own Seneca Rebound, the age treasure voyages started in the early 1400s, during the Ming dynasty, in a period when the population had restarted growing.
But the Chinese stopped their exploration phase and retreated within their borders. So, the Europeans found no competition in their worldwide expansion and that’s the history we know.
These considerations are still qualitative, but I think there is something in the idea of the “Seneca Rebound” as an engine that propels civilizations forward in bursts. If this is the case, if the world’s civilization goes through a new Seneca Collapse, as it is likely to happen, will it restart expanding afterward? It might be and note in the curves by Langer how growth in Europe was faster after the crash than before. This is because, I think, the Europeans had kept the social and technological structures they had developed before the crash — there was no need, for instance, to re-develop their ship-making technology. So, they could exploit more effectively the resources that the collapse had freed.
So, it might be that if the crash we are facing as we deplete our fossil resources will not be so bad that it will erase everything that our civilization created, we might restart expanding using renewable energy — this time into space. Why not?
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Another reconstruction of the Chinese population from an article dealing with the same question as this one — they arrive to completely different conclusions, but it is normal.
39 Comments on "The Seneca Rebound: why Growth is Faster after Collapse. Explaining the European World Dominance"
Cloggie on Sun, 28th Oct 2018 7:52 am
The conventional explanation for the European ruling of the world has to do with factors in various ways related to the “white man’s burden“, a term invented by Rudyard Kipling in 1899.
No, the key to understand the European success and dominance is ENERGY.
My favority graph to understand geopolitics of the modern era:
https://goo.gl/images/n6dyok
6 winners in a row. Why were they on top?
Portugal, Spain: sea-worthy sailing ships giving them global reach
Holland: Dutch icon wind mills, which enabled new land reclamation (pumping water), enhanced food production (grain milling), automatic wood sawing with which the Dutch commercial fleet at some point was three times as large as the rest of the world combined.
Britain: steam + coal. Result: factories, trains, steamships. Massive increase productivity.
USA: oil. Superior to coal and steam. With oil you can additionally power cars, trucks, planes.
Energy is the single most necessary factor to explain European (“white”) success.
Maybe, but the idea that the Europeans conquered the world because they are smarter than the others is not supported by any data.
No, Jews are smarter, right mr. Bardi? LOL
But it is true, Europeans are not necessarily smarter than Asians. So why did they dominate? Because Asians are hindered by their enormous attachment to conformity and harmony. That keeps them from thinking outside the box.
This in contrast is the essence of the European:
https://goo.gl/images/PBxkVm
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Geographer
An inventor, operating alone, unhindered by group conformity.
https://goo.gl/images/PBxkVm
So, it might be that if the crash we are facing as we deplete our fossil resources will not be so bad that it will erase everything that our civilization created, we might restart expanding using renewable energy — this time into space. Why not?
EXACTLY MY THOUGHTS!
diemos on Sun, 28th Oct 2018 8:00 am
Europe conquered the world because they realized the world was a sphere and invented celestial navigation to allow them to determine where they were on it.
Cloggie on Sun, 28th Oct 2018 8:06 am
“Europe conquered the world because they realized the world was a sphere and invented celestial navigation to allow them to determine where they were on it.”
Not true. Portugese and Spanish discoverers were constantly afraid they would sail off a flat earth. Copernicus came after 1492:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicolaus_Copernicus
Spanish arrival in America:
https://youtu.be/LT9YKjn67Og
joe on Sun, 28th Oct 2018 9:28 am
Why Europe and not China? The answer is so obvious that people just never get it. It was trade of course, not seneca anything bullshit. Was Europe poor? No of course not. Everyone was using donkeys and carts populations had no rights the concept of a ‘citizen’ with ‘human rights’ did not exist anywhere. Europe was just about as average a place as you can get. The population was low because the collapse of Rome had destroyed trade and so the countryside villages were not highly taxed to support large cities with public health etc. There was far more days off and holidays for the working classes than there is now and wealth was much more evenly dispersed.
The problem Europe faced was that between Europe and the silk road stood Islam which was bent on keeping Europe down and beaten. Repeated Islamic attacks on Europe had led to the creation of a centralised religious structure with rigid systems of doctrine and defence networks. We know these now as Catholicism and the Feudal system. When the Reconquest of Spain was finally completed Constantinople had fallen but the backdoor to Europe was closed. National policies then turned to finding access to the spice markets of Asia without paying the extortionate tolls exacted by Islamic states. Thus the voyages began think of them as NASA Apolo missions for the sea with wooden boats (they knew somthing was out there, just had no idea where or what exactly it was). Was it European superbrains that made explorers and later settlers into tough as nails violent killers? No, it was European response to Islam. When you fight isis for a few hundred years you learn a trick or two.
Pity we forgot the lesson.
Cloggie on Sun, 28th Oct 2018 12:22 pm
Hessen election results. No significant difference with the polls of the past few days:
http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/hessen-wahl-cdu-und-spd-verlieren-stark-gruene-legen-zu-a-1235559.html
Massive loss system parties CDU and SPD.
After Bavaria a new serious blow for Merkel.
AfD new in parliament with 12%.
Donald J Chump on Sun, 28th Oct 2018 2:18 pm
Europe is a stupid concept. It is NOT A CONTINENT!
So-called “smart” people using the term Europe as if it is a geographical region shows hyper-violent whites fell ass backward into free Labor (African slaves) and free Energy (oil).
It is as simple as that. Take away African slaves and oil and whites ain’t shit.
Cloggie on Sun, 28th Oct 2018 2:40 pm
So-called “smart” people using the term Europe as if it is a geographical region shows hyper-violent whites fell ass backward into free Labor (African slaves) and free Energy (oil).
There were never black slaves in Europe, you must be confusing Europe with America. And during the colonial era hardly any oil went from Africa to Europe.
Donald J. Chimp is a real hater and one is well-advised to keep him at a safe distance. He will for ever demand “reparations” for the fact that we catapulted him from the stone age into the modern era. We have paid trillions of development aid, now wipe your own ass.
Anonymouse1 on Sun, 28th Oct 2018 2:53 pm
Bardi has forgotten more than you will ever know fraudmeister. Even in instances where he is ‘wrong’, he still leaves you in the dirt, with you starring blankly into space, scratching your head and muttering to yourself.
Cloggie on Sun, 28th Oct 2018 3:08 pm
When it comes to knowledge mouse1, I would exercise great restraint if I were you. Not your cup of tea.
Cloggie on Sun, 28th Oct 2018 3:37 pm
Straight from the horses mouth. Forward: Yes, Ranting Against ‘Globalism’ Is Anti-Semitic
https://forward.com/scribe/412627/yes-ranting-against-globalism-is-anti-semitic/
Questions?
Siss is going to need his gun. Give us a call when you have decided to be European after all. In any case, I wish you much strength. You are going to need it.
Makati1 on Sun, 28th Oct 2018 4:10 pm
I got back last night from Manilla with the groceries. I made a haul. It is amazing how far my social security check goes here in this awesome country. I live like a king. People love me because I am an American even though I don’t tell them that I am. Maybe the ball cap is a giveaway. Well, after my first coffee I am back in the saddle.
Anonymouse1 on Sun, 28th Oct 2018 4:33 pm
Mak, what kind of grocery stores do they have there? Are there any Walmarts? Walmart has a great video game section I visit often.
I AM THE MOB on Sun, 28th Oct 2018 4:42 pm
154 mass shootings this year in America and not one committed by a black man or illegal alien.
Let that sink in.
Only the white man could be so evil and twisted..
Cloggie on Sun, 28th Oct 2018 4:56 pm
154 mass shootings this year in America and not one committed by a black man or illegal alien.
Millikike intentionally “forgot” to give us a link to the source. For good reason:
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/mass-shootings-in-2018/
Blacks are ten times as murderous as whites:
https://www.acsh.org/news/2017/08/10/african-american-homicide-rate-nearly-quadruple-national-average-11680
It is incredible how LAME American whites are when it comes to defending themselves against vermin like the mobster. Sheeple, ready to be slaughtered.
I AM THE MOB on Sun, 28th Oct 2018 4:59 pm
Clogg
You’re a politician, don’t become one of Hitler’s children..
I AM THE MOB on Sun, 28th Oct 2018 5:03 pm
Won’t it be pretty convenient if Trump gets to declare Martial Law because of the actions of the very people he indoctrinated and inspired?
Trump is like Charles Manson..He influences his followers to commit crimes on his behalf..
I AM THE MOB on Sun, 28th Oct 2018 5:19 pm
The anti-dollar awakening could be ruder and sooner than most economists predict
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/27/the-anti-dollar-awakening-could-be-ruder-and-sooner-than-most-economists-predict.html
I AM THE MOB on Sun, 28th Oct 2018 5:32 pm
You can’t spell hatred..Without a “Red Hat”..
https://i.redd.it/78fidibn5zu11.jpg
Cloggie on Sun, 28th Oct 2018 5:48 pm
You’re a politician, don’t become one of Hitler’s children..
Just make sure you don’t miss the train to NYC, will you. I might get worried about you. You read so many scary stories in the papers these days.
Duncan Idaho on Sun, 28th Oct 2018 5:49 pm
“Trump is like Charles Manson..”
Manson reportedly had some good points.
Lets not put him down.
I AM THE MOB on Sun, 28th Oct 2018 6:03 pm
#RightWingTerror
https://i.imgur.com/LAarlyJ.jpg
Boney Joe on Sun, 28th Oct 2018 6:40 pm
Duncan, Manson would have made a great antifa leader if we could have done something about that swastika. LOL
Duncan Idaho on Sun, 28th Oct 2018 6:43 pm
swastikas are always a problem, unless you are a repug.
Cloggie on Sun, 28th Oct 2018 7:32 pm
…or a Beethoven fan:
https://youtu.be/Yqff1F0Ijn0
Makati1 on Sun, 28th Oct 2018 7:41 pm
Third world America
https://www.oprah.com/oprahshow/porn-epidemic/all
“Of the 40 million people who regularly visit porn websites, approximately 85 to 90 percent are recreational users. The rest are compulsive users, meaning addicts.*
When you’re an addict, Rob says, you begin to notice the consequences of your actions. Kirk felt like a hypocrite onstage, while Josh dealt with marital problems. These problems were born out of their excessive porn use, but both men chose to ignore them, Rob says.
How can you heal a porn addict? Rob says that like drug or alcohol addicts, people with sexual addictions need strong support systems to break the cycle. Spouses may not be the best people to turn to, however, because they often feel angry and hurt by sexual addictions. Rob recommends therapy and 12-step programs to anyone struggling with a porn addiction.”
Nuff said.
Please kick the anti-american dog I made of granite forum on Sun, 28th Oct 2018 8:34 pm
mak i think muslims will bring a period of peace and prosperity to phils. i have high hope you guys will succeed. phils could be center of the new al andalusia, congrats bro
I AM THE MOB on Sun, 28th Oct 2018 8:35 pm
Mak
Can you stil get you dick up at your old age? I doubt it..So basically you are not a man anymore..No wonder you are so angry..Misery loves company…
Davy on Sun, 28th Oct 2018 8:43 pm
I ask forgiveness for hijacking my name in an obvious attempt to generate sympathy. At least I’m man enough to admit this truth.
Please kick the anti-american dog I made of granite forum on Sun, 28th Oct 2018 8:46 pm
looks like above is fake supertard
Davy on Sun, 28th Oct 2018 8:53 pm
I’m not your retard. stupid dumbass
Please kick the anti-american dog I made of granite forum on Sun, 28th Oct 2018 10:42 pm
joe on Sun, 28th Oct 2018 9:28 am
big brother joe i’m sorry i missed this post from you. i’m very proud to have a big brother joe who is no longer tarded. in that post you showed knowlege of islam that could rival supertard leo 3’s.
i hearby nominate you for candidate of supertard. beware that only less than 1% of nominees become supertard. after that post saying assad is good for christians it will weigh heavily on you.
in an islamic country, churches are required to have steeples lower than mosques’ minarets.
good day to you big brother joe in your quest to understand the religion of peace.
Sissyfuss on Sun, 28th Oct 2018 11:30 pm
Cloggenspiel, don’t even think about disparaging my beloved Ludwig. Have venerated his music for 5 decades now, a genius like Einstein that somehow had a direct line to the mysteries of the Universe. His mastery over even his deafness is awe inspiring as his music enters deep into ones soulful consciousness. Keep your swastika loyalties with the pompous and pedestrian as your role model Adolph did with his confused lust for Wagner.
Please kick the anti-american dog I made of granite forum on Sun, 28th Oct 2018 11:50 pm
supertard ugo i get a sense that you are not allowed to talk about islamic invasions cuasing the dark ages in europe. there are a couple of other points which i didn’t like as much. overall it’s a good working theory, probably as good as development of the open press. in modern times ((supertards)) developed the intardweb which allows many things among which the proliferation of economic activities. ((supertard)) stallman fought for freedom to develop open source software that amounted to 34 billions of worth that IBM paid for REdhat and the vehicle for the support of the intardweb via the GNU stack, which I’m sure also runs eurotard’s “blog”.
without ((supertards)) RSA we would still be trading physical gold, which could be a hinder to economic activities to say the least. Without security, not much can happen.
Without hiring and maintaining expensive armed mercenaries, ((supertards)) allowed us to make transactions with a few clicks and get our goods shipped via Amazon or alibaba after the payment of shekles.
i submit my ideas for your review
Please kick the anti-american dog I made of granite forum on Mon, 29th Oct 2018 12:01 am
supertard robert spencer said due to islamic conquests, greek philosophers escaped into europe and spread the schools of aristotle and plato which brought about the renaissance and this still benefits europe today, unlike other places
Cloggie on Mon, 29th Oct 2018 12:03 am
Are you trying to lecture me about Ludwig van Beethoven, you little American piece of snot? Still trying to score virtue points, with your Pavlov reactions regarding the ancient Hindu symbol, while pretending your bunch of massmurderers and rapists and city nukers and holo-inventors represented some mixture of the Red Cross and Liberation Army? You better stick to your American “music”, that is jungle rap, straight from the “brains” of the likes of mouse1 and Donald J. Chimp, both owned by that monster millikike, he intends to use as a weapon against you and your lovely granddaughter, you insufferable fool. I have absolutely no compassion with you or dave and now that it is obvious what fate has in store for you both. Finally justice done: the world’s robber barons are now in for some major league suffering themselves, facing the total ruin of society, they have been lisping about here tor years, politically correct connected to “peak oil”, but deep in their “hearts” they knew something else was brewing, witnessing the flightpaths to Italy or Manilla or Columbia, as if you can flee to these places from global peak oil. No, fleeing from the potential killing fields of North-America, THAT was the real motivation. You also have a refuge for yourself, sissy-boy? No? Isn’t about time to have some thoughts about that, now that CW2 is rapidly approaching?
Cloggie on Mon, 29th Oct 2018 12:20 am
“supertard robert spencer said due to islamic conquests, greek philosophers escaped into europe and spread the schools of aristotle and plato which brought about the renaissance and this still benefits europe today, unlike other places”
Plato and Aristotle and their obession with dialectics represented the decline of Greek civilisation. I doubt that Spencer would have said something brachial stupid as you claim he has said, without link. Plato and Aristotle that was 400-300 B.C, 1000 years before Mohamed was ever heard of.
Italy, the birthplace of the Renaissance, was never occupied by Islam. It were Christian monasteries that kept the Greek heritage until the moment that people began to show interest in it again.
We need Islam like the plague. Or Plato and Aristotle. Or Christianity. What we need are pre-Socratic and Roman values, warrior values, to clean up the mess we have created with our totalitarian humanism, rooted in secular Christianity.
Cloggie on Mon, 29th Oct 2018 12:36 am
Lou Dobbs calls State “Soros-occupied territory” and gets cancelled, because, you see, politically Jews don’t exist, other than as two feet sticking out of an oven:
https://www.infowars.com/fox-business-pulls-lou-dobbs-tonight-episode-with-soros-occupied-state-department-remark/
One is reminded of Pat Buchanan, who called Congress “Israeli-occupied territory”.
Can’t say that, walk on, nothing to be seen.
“Graham said to Nixon – “the Jewish stranglehold has got to be broken or the country’s going down the drain,” he continued.”
Too late, the country HAS gone down the drain. Tail-spin is next.
deadly on Mon, 29th Oct 2018 5:23 am
Not one word about the Little Ice Age, which ushered in crop failure after crop failure.
Little Ice Age
There is substantial historical evidence for the Little Ice Age. The Baltic Sea froze over, as did many of the rivers and lakes in Europe. Pack ice expanded far south into the Atlantic making shipping to Iceland and Greenland impossible for months on end. Winters were bitterly cold and summers were often cool and wet. These conditions led to widespread crop failure, famine, and population decline. The tree line and snowline dropped and glaciers advanced, overrunning towns and farms in the process. There were increased levels of social unrest as large portions of the population were reduced to starvation and poverty.
Let Freedom Ring on Mon, 29th Oct 2018 5:48 am
TRUMP/REPUBLICANS SUFFER LOWEST RATING IN POLLING HISTORY
WASHINGTON (JTA) — American Jews overwhelmingly disapprove of President Donald Trump in just about every area, according to an American Jewish Committee poll. Trump’s favorable/unfavorable numbers are far and away the worst for any president since Committee polling began in 1960
The survey also shows a sharp uptick in concerns about anti-Semitism in the United States, which may be a reflection of the increased influence of the “alt-right” since Trump’s election.
Of respondents in the poll posted Wednesday by the AJC, 77 percent said they viewed Trump’s job performance unfavorably and 21 percent said they viewed him favorably. Those are considerably worse numbers for the president than in the general population at around the same time, mid- to late August, when Gallup consistently showed Trump scoring favorable ratings in the high 30s and unfavorable marks in the high 50s.
Asked for specifics, respondents scored Trump negatively across the board: 73 to 27 unfavorable to favorable on national security; 69-30 on terrorism; 75-23 on U.S.-Russia relations; 71-25 on handling the relationship with NATO and the trans-Atlantic alliance; 77-20 on race relations; 76-23 on immigration; and 68-26 on the Iran nuclear issue. He came out best on U.S.-Israel relations, though still unfavorable: 54-40.
Jews continue to identify more as liberal and as Democrat than not. Among respondents, 54 percent said they were liberal, 22 percent classified themselves as moderate, and 22 percent said they were conservative. Party wise, 64 percent said they were Democrats, 15 percent said they were Republicans and 10 percent Independent. Asked whether they voted in November for Trump or Hillary Clinton, the Democratic candidate, the numbers were statistically commensurate with how respondents in the AJC poll from a year ago — focusing almost exclusively on the election — said they would vote: 64 percent said they voted for Clinton and 18 percent for Trump. Last year the numbers were 61-19.