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Page added on June 17, 2013
The “Green” Line
The recent release of the UN World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision contains some sobering reading. The global population projection for 2050 has been revised up from 9.3 to 9.6 billion and for 2100 from 10.1 to 10.9 billion. The reason is that fertility levels in a number of developing countries, particularly those in Sub-Saharan Africa, have not fallen at the rate that was previously projected.
The difference between 9.3 and 9.6 billion may seem small when written on paper but when considering that this is roughly equivalent to the current population of the United States of America it is put into some perspective. An extra 300 million people who deserve to live with dignity, decency and an acceptable quality of life may be 300 million more than our planet can provide in such a way for.
There are a variety of reasons why fertility has not fallen as predicted, however, one of the main reasons is due to an unmet need for access to modern methods of contraception for the purpose of limiting family size or managing the timing of births. The more that is done to address this unmet need, the greater the chances of achieving a lower global population and a higher quality of life for all.
Take Nigeria for example. It has a current population of around 170 million. According to the 2012 revision, at current population growth rates, Nigeria could reach a population of 1 billion in 2100. Clearly this is unlikely to happen as such growth would likely lead to severe internal and external conflict, due to extreme competition for resources, and a resultant rapid increase in mortality. The human suffering would be almost unimaginable.
I could be wrong, but can we not look into the future through the crystal ball of population projections, and make predictions about the future well-being of those populations? Those populations being people not unlike you or me who will be living in that time and place. We must help Nigeria and other nations in similar situations to take the “green” line.
8 Comments on "The “Green” Line"
socrates1fan on Mon, 17th Jun 2013 10:26 pm
The assumption that food supplies will be able to be provided to this growing population (primarily in Africa) between now and 2100 is not only laughable, it’s dangerously naive.
The developed world provided a great deal of the humanitarian aid that allowed such massive population growth to begin with. The West and East Asia are going deeper and deeper into a recession (and in many parts of the Western world, a depression) and with the decline of prosperity, so declines the amount of food we donate.
Africa will likely experience a die off in the near future of epic proportions. A die off that could have easily been prevented. In the West, we will have enough trouble feeding ourselves.
Juan Pueblo on Mon, 17th Jun 2013 11:15 pm
There are 250 million fertile women in the world that have no access to contraceptives or family planning services. Providing these women with these would be all that is needed to stop global population growth. The two main obstacles to achieve this is resistance on the part of the Roman Catholic Church and Islam.
Kenz300 on Tue, 18th Jun 2013 12:22 am
Access to family planning services needs to be available to all that want it.
herby on Tue, 18th Jun 2013 2:35 am
Why cant we just forcibly sterilize these third world people. Or just cut off the aid.
BillT on Tue, 18th Jun 2013 5:28 am
More bullshit ‘statistics’. We have about peaked in population. The only way now is down. Disease, famine, pestilence and war are going to drastically reduce our numbers over the next decade or so. Mother Nature doesn’t care if you suffer or not. You are just one of a million plus species and doomed to extinction like all the others.
And those in the Western world had better look closer to your own situation. If the dollar collapses, the welfare/food stamp/medicare/Medicaid/social security teat will dry up. That takes care of 50% of American families now. The food will not be coming in from all over the world like it does today. Read the labels on the stuff you buy and see where it comes from. You may be surprised.
Feemer on Tue, 18th Jun 2013 12:27 pm
There is no moral solution, hopefully a virus like H7N9 knocks us down to carrying capacity. Earth’s carrying capacity for humans is about 1-1.5 billion without any fossil fuels, so once oil is gone in 35 years, or sooner due to prices, we are going to have 8.5+ billion with no way to grow food for them all
GregT on Tue, 18th Jun 2013 3:32 pm
“Earth’s carrying capacity for humans is about 1-1.5 billion without any fossil fuels”
Should read “Earth’s carrying capacity for humans WAS about 1-1.5 billion without any fossil fuels”
The Earth is in a state of massive decline, so is it’s carrying capacity.
Wheeldog on Tue, 18th Jun 2013 8:44 pm
Like global warming, we have moved beyond the point where it is possible to voluntarily limit/control population growth. Global population is a runaway train heading for a cliff. It is not just gross numbers. The amount of resources (minerals, clean water, food, fuel, etc.) each individual consumes has been on the increase compounding the problem. When the tipping point is reached (soon) the die off will undoubtedly be steep and chaotic.