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Page added on January 13, 2014
The Challenges Presented By Global Population Growth
As we embark on a new year, it’s important to keep the really big elements of our global predicament squarely in mind. To that end, we’re surfacing this excellent discussion on population growth that Chris recorded in 2012 with Bill Ryerson of the Population Institute
At the heart of the resource depletion story that we track here at PeakProsperity.com is the number of people on earth competing for those resources.
The global population is more than 7 billion now and headed to 9 billion by 2050. If world population continues its exponential growth, when we will hit planetary carrying capacity limits with our key resources (or are we already exceeding them)? What are the just, humane, and rights-respecting options that are on the table for balancing the world’s population with the ability of the earth to sustain it?
Population management is an inflammatory issue. It’s nearly impossible to discuss without triggering heated emotions, and rare is the leader who’s willing to raise it. And by going unaddressed globally, the risk of problems created by overpopluation grow unchecked. War, poverty, starvation, disease, inequality…the list goes on.
Which is why we feel we need to have the courage to address this very important topic directly. And to have an adult-sized conversation about these risks and what can done about them.
In this podcast, Chris talks with Bill Ryerson, founder and president of the Population Media Center as well as the president of the Population Institute. They explore the current forecasts for world population growth, the expected future demand on world resources, and the range of options available for bringing them into balance sustainably.
We are adding about 225,000 people to the dinner table every night who were not there last night. So that is net growth of the world’s population on an annual basis of a new Egypt every year. In other words, 83 million additional people net growth annually. And that, from a climate change perspective alone, is a huge increment. Most of this growth is occurring in poor countries, so on a per-capita level, the people being added to the population have much lower impact than, say, if Europe were growing at that rate. But nevertheless, just from a climate perspective, with most of that 83 million additional people in low per capita greenhouse-gas output countries – this is between now and 2050 – at this rate of growth, it is the climate equivalent of adding two United States to the planet.
Clearly resources like oil, coal, and gas are non-renewable and will eventually run out or become more and more expensive and therefore not reliable as a source of energy. But what is the renewable long-term sustainability or the carrying capacity of the environment in each geographic territory, and globally? What is the current and projected future human demand for those resources, and do we have sufficient natural resources to meet our needs?
Doing this kind of accounting is not difficult. There are very good robust scientific designs for measuring resource capacity and human demand, and projecting out what do we need to do in some time in the next few decades in order to get from what is clearly population overshoot to achieving something that is in balance. Because as long as we are in overshoot – and the global footprint network’s calculation is we are now at 50% overshoot – that means we are digging into the savings account of our ecological systems, as you mentioned: the fisheries being one, forests being another. We are eating into the capital to sustain the growing population.
They also explore why population management is such a uniquely controversial topic. Not only are moral, civil, and religious beliefs in play, but the debate is also heavily influenced by large corporate and governmental organizations protecting their interests. So it’s no wonder that a calm, respectful, and reasonable conversation on population remains so elusive.
But we’re going to try to have one here.
Needless to say, our moderators are on high alert and will step in if they are needed. Thanks in advance for your conscientious, levelheaded, and respectful comments. We have the chance to do substantial thinking on some really meaty questions here. Let’s make good use of it.
5 Comments on "The Challenges Presented By Global Population Growth"
Greg on Mon, 13th Jan 2014 4:51 am
Absolutely the best discussion I have ever heard on the most important issue the world faces….population.
mike on Mon, 13th Jan 2014 12:01 pm
No doubt somebody is going to gripe about the population growth in third world countries and the need to keep the immigrants out of our rich world. Hispanics flooding in to USA, North Africans and South Asians into Europe, ditto into Oz. Population control, those somebodies are going to say, involves immigration control. But those somebodies need to think on. To end the movement of poor people fromn the third wortld into rich lands requires a massive investment of aid to the poor world from the rich. Improve the standrd of living in Africa, Asia, S America, and you will see a drop in the birth rate there and a reduction in the desire to migrate to the rich lands. Migrants move from their homelands for two categories of reason: they are attracted by “pull” factors to the countries that are their preferred destination. And they feel they must leave home because of the “push” factors in their own homelands – poverty, unemployment, hunger and famine, inadequate health services, poor educational facilities.
If you want to curb immigration into the developed world – N America, Europe, Australia etc, it is not enough to introduce immigration controls, immigration quotas, criminilasation of employment of illegals etc. The migrants will still keep coming – across the Mediterranean and overland from Asia into Europe, across the Rio Grande into the US. What you will need to do is to aid the countries from which the emigrants come. Foreign aid. Massive development of hospitals, schools, improved agriculture, better water supply, industrialisation, better wages, better housing, and above all JOBS – that means economic development. If life at home improves, the desperate will not leave to seek their fortunes in the rich world. But how many rich countries are prepared to make the massive investment that would so improve the life in the poorer countries that the poor would cease to make the hazardous journey to Europe and N America? None at the moment. And none in the foreseeable future. So the migrants will still come and the West will still want their skills and their cheap labour and the border controls will filter out a fraction and the rest will get through and the illegals will still be eagerly employed by employers desperate for good workers. And the electors will still gripe about immigrants and the “excessive” amounts paid out in foreign aid.
J-Gav on Mon, 13th Jan 2014 1:54 pm
An exceptionally good interview on a very controversial topic.
rollin on Mon, 13th Jan 2014 4:03 pm
There is no one solution to the problems of population, each nation must closely examine it’s own situation and come up with viable solutions.
Due to the political/economic/religious circus around this topic, probably much won’t get done.
Kenz300 on Mon, 13th Jan 2014 7:00 pm
Every country needs to develop a plan to balance its population with its resources.
Food, water, energy and jobs all need to be available to support the population.
Countries that do not will be exporting the populations and their problems.
Too many people have not made the connection between their poverty and their family size. If you can not provide for yourself you can not provide for a child.
Access to family planning services needs to be available to all that want it.