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Robert Zubrin makes the case against Population Control
Around the world, the population control movement has resulted in billions of lost or ruined lives. We cannot stop at merely rebutting the pseudoscience and recounting the crimes of the population controllers. We must also expose and confront the underlying antihumanist ideology. If the idea is accepted that the world’s resources are fixed with only so much to go around, then each new life is unwelcome, each unregulated act or thought is a menace, every person is fundamentally the enemy of every other person, and each race or nation is the enemy of every other race or nation. The ultimate outcome of such a worldview can only be enforced stagnation, tyranny, war, and genocide. The horrific crimes advocated or perpetrated by antihumanism’s devotees over the past two centuries prove this conclusively. Only in a world of unlimited resources can all men be brothers.
That is why we must reject antihumanism and embrace instead an ethic based on faith in the human capacity for creativity and invention.
In 1991, UNFPA head Nafis Sadik went to China to congratulate the oligarchs of the People’s Republic for their excellent program, which by that time had already sterilized, implanted IUDs in, or performed abortions on some 300 million people. “China has every reason to feel proud of and pleased with its remarkable achievements made in its family planning policy and control of its population growth over the past ten years,” she said. “Now the country could offer its experiences and special experts to help other countries…. UNFPA is going to employ some of [China’s family planning experts] to work in other countries and popularize China’s experience in population growth control and family planning.”
Sadik made good on her promise. With the help of the UNFPA, the Chinese model of population control was implemented virtually in its entirety in Vietnam, and used to enhance the brutal effectiveness of the antihuman efforts in many other countries, from Bangladesh and Sri Lanka to Mexico and Peru.
There are several key aspects about the population control debate.
Did population control need to be implemented historically on a country by country basis? What were the other options ?
By eating less meat a larger population could have been supported.
There were famines but they were the result of mismanagement and not because there were too many people.
What is the carrying capacity of the world ? Is it far higher than what the current population is ?
What are the numbers that be supported at every point in time going forward ?
New super-rice in China has a yield of 13.5 tons per hectare. When it is scaled up past experience indicates about 80% of the smaller scale yield should result in 10.5 tons per hectare. The highest rice yield in the world is in Australia, on average about 9.9 tons per hectare (660 kg/mu), followed by 6.7 tons per hectare (445 kg/mu) in Japan. The yields of China’s super-rice have now reached 550 and 600 kg/ mu, respectively, at large scale, as the result of the first two phases of development.
The developer of the superrice believes yield could eventually increase to 15 tons a hectare (without using bioengineering, and just the hybriding methods they are using so far). Rice is the staple food for more than half of the world population. Rice production per hectare is now available to feed 27 people, and it needs to feed 43 people by 2050. Yuan told reporters that many countries in the world are suitable for planting China’s hybrid rice. If the area of its cultivation is increased by 75 million hectares globally, an increased yield of 2 000 kg per hectare will provide 150 million tonnes extra for feeding 400-500 million more people, and effectively guarantee food security. China is ready to help people bid farewell to famine.
161 million hectares are currently used for growing rice with an average yield of 4.2 tons per hectare. So the deploying the existing superrice increasing yields to 10.5 tons per hectare would increase yields by 250%. It would increase China’s yield by 60%. They be
* 11.5% of the total arable land is used for biotech crops.
* 3.3% of all agricultural land.
So total arable land is about 1440 million hectares.
Total agricultural land is 5280 million hectares.
World Crop production statistics
Country Rice area, ha Rice production, Mt Yield, Mt/ha WORLD 161,420,743 678,688,289 4.20 India 44,100,000 131,274,000 2.98 China 29,932,292 197,257,175 6.59 Indonesia 12,883,576 64,398,890 5.00 Bangladesh 11,500,000 45,075,000 3.92 Thailand 10,963,126 31,462,886 2.87 Viet Nam 7,440,100 38,895,500 5.23
225 million hectares is used to grow wheat.
There is super wheat that can increase yield by 15%
Salt water resistant wheat boost yields by 25% in salty soil
160 million hectares is used to grow corn.
Foreign Agricultural Service has a report on world agricultural production.
Population Control did not have to be as brutal as it was
It is worth attempting to convey to readers some sense of the evil that is being done with their money. Before describing some case studies, let us consider the primary characteristics manifested by nearly all the campaigns.
First, they are top-down dictatorial. In selling the effort to Americans, USAID and its beneficiaries claim that they are providing Third World women with “choice” regarding childbirth. There is no truth to this claim. As Betsy Hartmann, a liberal feminist critic of these programs, trenchantly pointed out in her 1995 book Reproductive Rights and Wrongs, “a woman’s right to choose” must necessarily include the option of having children — precisely what the population control campaigns deny her. Rather than providing “choice” to individuals, the purpose of the campaigns is to strip entire populations of their ability to reproduce. This is done by national governments, themselves under USAID or World Bank pressure, setting quotas for sterilizations, IUD insertions, or similar procedures to be imposed by their own civil service upon the subject population. Those government employees who meet or exceed their quotas of “acceptors” are rewarded; those who fail to do so are disciplined.
Second, the programs are dishonest. It is a regular practice for government civil servants employed in population control programs to lie to their prospective targets for quota-meeting about the consequences of the operations that will be performed upon them. For example, Third World peasants are frequently told by government population control personnel that sterilization operations are reversible, when in fact they are not.
Third, the programs are coercive. As a regular practice, population control programs provide “incentives” and/or “disincentives” to compel “acceptors” into accepting their “assistance.” Among the “incentives” frequently employed is the provision or denial of cash or food aid to starving people or their children. Among the “disincentives” employed are personal harassment, dismissal from employment, destruction of homes, and denial of schooling, public housing, or medical assistance to the recalcitrant.
Fourth, the programs are medically irresponsible and negligent. As a regular practice, the programs use defective, unproven, unsafe, experimental, or unapproved gear, including equipment whose use has been banned outright in the United States. They also employ large numbers of inadequately trained personnel to perform potentially life-endangering operations, or to maintain medical equipment in a supposedly sterile or otherwise safe condition. In consequence, millions of people subjected to the ministrations of such irresponsibly run population control operations have been killed. This is particularly true in Africa, where improper reuse of hypodermic needles without sterilization in population control clinics has contributed to the rapid spread of deadly infectious diseases, including AIDS.
Fifth, the programs are cruel, callous, and abusive of human dignity and human rights. A frequent practice is the sterilization of women without their knowledge or consent, typically while they are weakened in the aftermath of childbirth. This is tantamount to government-organized rape. Forced abortions are also typical. These and other human rights abuses of the population control campaign have been widely documented, with subject populations victimized in Australia, Bangladesh, China, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, India, Indonesia, Kenya, Kosovo, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Tibet, the United States, Venezuela, and Vietnam.
Sixth, the programs are racist. Just as the global population control program itself represents an attempt by the (white-led) governments of the United States and the former imperial powers of Europe to cut nonwhite populations in the Third World, so, within each targeted nation, the local ruling group has typically made use of the population control program to attempt to eliminate the people they despise. In India, for example, the ruling upper-caste Hindus have focused the population control effort on getting rid of lower-caste untouchables and Muslims. In Sri Lanka, the ruling Singhalese have targeted the Hindu Tamils for extermination. In Peru, the Spanish-speaking descendants of the conquistadors have directed the country’s population control program toward the goal of stemming the reproduction of the darker non-Hispanic natives. In Kosovo, the Serbs used population control against the Albanians, while in Vietnam the Communist government has targeted the population control effort against the Hmong ethnic minority, America’s former wartime allies. In China, the Tibetan and Uyghur minorities have become special targets of the government’s population control effort, with multitudes of the latter rounded up for forced abortions and sterilizations. In South Africa under apartheid, the purpose of the government-run population control program went without saying. In various black African states, whichever tribe holds the reins of power regularly directs the population campaign towards the elimination of their traditional tribal rivals. There should be nothing surprising in any of this. Malthusianism has always been closely linked to racism, because the desire for population control has as its foundation the hatred of others.
29 Comments on "Robert Zubrin makes the case against Population Control"
Kenz300 on Sun, 15th Apr 2012 3:11 am
The world added a billion people in the last 12 years and continues to grow. Around the world we find a food crisis, a water crisis, a fish stocks crisis, an energy crisis, a financial crisis and a jobs crisis. The ever growing world population is not sustainable on a finite earth. Endless growth will only lead to more poverty, suffering and despair. If you can not provide for yourself, you can not provide for a child.
BillT on Sun, 15th Apr 2012 4:00 am
Another pile of BS! Mother Nature is opening the gate for the Four Horsemen to gallop around the world and decimate a large percentage of the population. And about time. It is not right for a small percentage of the world, mostly Western, to live high off the hog while children by the millions are starving to death around the world. Time for a leveling, either by famine, pestilence, or war. And it will visit the West this time, including the Empire.
Arthur on Sun, 15th Apr 2012 9:10 am
Bill, it is likely that the third world is going to be the first victim of the coming troubles, not the west. Sure the western economies are going to be ripped apart, but the real devastation will be elsewhere first.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/damian-carrington-blog/2011/aug/31/food-security-prices-conflict
BillT on Sun, 15th Apr 2012 10:27 am
Arthur, perhaps, but not all of the 3rd world. And it would only take one bad year of wheat failures and/or corn failures to bring the Us down to 3rd world levels. There does not have to be a scarcity of food, just very high prices and a huge number of unemployed and poor. The Us seems to be growing it’s poor very fast and taking food from families mouths is why the Revolt happened in Egypt, and Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, etc. What do you think is going to happen when the Middle East cannot import enough food for their citizens? The end of oil may come sooner than you think.
I live in the Philippines where the government is pushing for food sufficiency, not war. If it all holds together for a few more years, they will not need anything from the outside. I suspect that they could manage even now. After all, how many Us cities allow you to have chickens and goats? But here, it is common to hear roosters anywhere in the city. Also, here, most are already growing their own food and know how to live off the land. Not so much in the Us. American’s barely know how to cook anymore and few know how to live off the land.
DC on Sun, 15th Apr 2012 10:28 am
Wow this guy is one raving xtian fundy lunatic isnt he. He managed to fit just about every straw-man, falsehood, inflammatory bit of rhetoric in the book. I actually had to wipe his spittle off my monitor after reading this. Like how he manages to slide in a little endorsement of GMOs while he frothing at the mouth. Someone should tell him christianity has also resulted in the billions of lost and ruined past, present and future lives, not reponsible family planning.
kervennic on Sun, 15th Apr 2012 10:39 am
You read the first paragraph and you see that this guy is a dishonest idiot who mi desire and reality. It does not deserve to be read further.
There are billion of people having and advice on this. Why publishing this piece of crap !
radon on Sun, 15th Apr 2012 12:04 pm
Arthur,
This guardian’s map is a bit strange, – Ukraine and Russia and medium risk, while Japan is low risk. How can this be? And what about “low risk” Emirates… Emirates are mostly a moon-like landscape. Many Central African states, on the contrary, are, on the basis of their natural resources, self-sufficient on food while painted red or orange. Looks like they just arbitrarily painted the map on the basis of their perception of the “developed” and “developing” countries. What is their understanding of “food security”?
Beery on Sun, 15th Apr 2012 1:03 pm
Robert Zubrin is a nutcase and an asshole. How he gets anything published is a mystery to me.
Kenz300 on Sun, 15th Apr 2012 3:38 pm
Good article in the New york Times today about the rise in population in Nigeria. In Africa some families still have 8 or 10 or more children. This is overwhelming schools, hospitals and housing. Every country needs to develop a plan to balance population with food, water, resources and jobs. Those that do not will be exporting their populations when they can not provide for them.
Newfie on Sun, 15th Apr 2012 5:06 pm
The Malthusian Catastrophe approaches…
DMMZ on Sun, 15th Apr 2012 5:06 pm
Is this the guy who thinks we should colonize Mars? We’re going to need another planet at the rate we’re consuming the resources on this one. Maybe he wants to overpopulate this one as soon as possible so he can see his Mars mission take place while he’s still alive.
JeffBC on Sun, 15th Apr 2012 7:34 pm
“Only in a world of unlimited resources can all men be brothers” and only an infinite flat earth can have unlimited resources. Robert Zubrin is the most foolish cornucopian since Julian Simon. Mars can’t solve our problem as 70 million people per year would have to be launched and Zubrin admits in his book it takes 1000 years to terraform the red planet.
Arthur on Sun, 15th Apr 2012 7:57 pm
radon, I suspect that the Maplecroft map is a copy and paste from a study by the German Army about the consequences of peak-oil:
http://deepresource.files.wordpress.com/2012/01/food-security.jpg
The difference is that Maplecroft has lowered the rating for Spain.
I would rate Emirates risk as low as well since they have oil for decades to come.
Not sure about Japan. Intelligent and disciplined people with strong work ethic, that is probably why. They won’t produce Mazda’s in the future, but probably will produce rice. They have the great advantage of ethnic homogenity (there was zero looting during the Fukushima desaster, compare that with New Orleans after Kathrina). But they hardly have any resources at all, high debt. Their society is aging, meaning they are already on the way of declining population numbers, which is good.
Rick on Sun, 15th Apr 2012 8:36 pm
The only good posts here, are from those who posted comments.
Robert Zubrin = another corporate tool, dipshit.
Arthur on Sun, 15th Apr 2012 9:34 pm
Robert Zubrin wants to go to Mars. He should take a real deep breath, go and stay there.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Zubrin
Arthur on Sun, 15th Apr 2012 9:37 pm
DC says: “Wow this guy is one raving xtian fundy lunatic isnt he.”
I doubt it.
http://www.thejewisheye.com/zubrin_ev.html
Windmills on Sun, 15th Apr 2012 9:55 pm
Agreed. The Christians don’t have a monopoly on lunacy, obviously.
DC on Sun, 15th Apr 2012 11:05 pm
Im sorry, I didnt see anything to suggest he was jewish? I make little distinction amoung them, to me crazy jewish guy or crazy xtian, hard to tell the difference, sorry. In any event, that review makes you linked makes it pretty clear the guy is, to put it mildly, batguano insane.
If you think thats bad, get a load of this gem.
Merchants of Despair: Radical Environmentalists, Criminal Pseudo-Scientists, and the Fatal Cult of Antihumanism.
All the glowing ‘reviews’ seem to be from Xtian\free enterprise ‘think tanks’ and similar rag publications. Bonus points for the Nazi SS being responisible for family planning initiatives.
SilentRunning on Mon, 16th Apr 2012 12:37 am
The article is just a collection of diatribes against what is ultimately inevitable: That people will necessarily have to manage their numbers. It is weird that a scientist like Zubrin can’t bring himself to understand the exponential function.
In truth, it is the anti-population control crowd that is advocating mass destruction and cruelty. What sort of monsters could advocate policies that will certainly lead to starvation, warfare and ecological suicide?
BillT on Mon, 16th Apr 2012 1:42 am
“… What sort of monsters could advocate policies that will certainly lead to starvation, warfare and ecological suicide? …”
The radical right, and any religious organization that promotes large families: Mormons, Catholics, Muslims, etc. and believes that the end times are coming so we will all be taken to some perfect place for eternity. Yes, we will. It will be perfectly dark and about 6 feet under.
Arthur on Mon, 16th Apr 2012 8:39 am
Zubrin no doubt represents the radical left and is against population control as well. The common denominator between all these groups mentioned is that they fail to understand what is coming.
eureka14 on Mon, 23rd Apr 2012 7:33 am
Please give me the weblink to:
”sterilization of women without their knowledge or consent … Sri Lanka”
Thanks.
David Sims on Tue, 17th Mar 2015 8:42 pm
Like it or not, Earth is a place with finite resources. Resource scarcity is a normal condition of life that has driven biological evolution for millions of years. Violent competition for access to resources, likewise, is a normal condition of life. The human exploitation of fossil fuels during the last hundred years or so has spoiled us: it has made us soft in both body and will, and it has given us unrealistic expectations for the long term future of civilization.
Zubrin is right when he speaks of the wisdom, the rightness, for humans to go to Mars. But he’s wrong to say that resource scarcity must lead to human stagnation. It will do nothing of the kind. It will, rather, winnow the human species somehow or other, and, if things work out as they should, natural selection will promote the survival of the humans who can go to Mars.
And the clock is ticking. Time is not on our side. Fossil fuels haven’t run out yet, but they are in decline. Nuclear energy is the primary alternative energy source, but it can’t be scaled up to the power level at which we’ve been using fossil fuels. (And there are other problems with swapping fossil fuels out and nuclear energy in: e.g., portability.)
One way or another, the human population will sharply decline. It matters who survives. If the right group does, then man will go on, reaching at least cultural heights beyond anything he ever reached before. If the wrong groups survive, mankind will go back to being a motley bunch of tribes spread around the globe, living as animals and fighting low-technology wars, until at last our genus is extinct.
Besides, I don’t look at the struggles that nature requires of men with the proverbial Eye of God. I look at it with the eye of a man who has a stake in the outcome. I am not the referee of the contest; I am a player. The divine perspective is not suitable for me. It matters, to me, who wins.
Davy on Wed, 18th Mar 2015 5:33 am
Obviously Zubrin is an agendist with a distorted understanding of a global system in overshoot because of limits of growth and a dynamic human system at diminishing returns to its complexity. A dynamic system with a foundational commodity its complexity relies upon in depletion. The guy is worshipping the false gods of the pseudoscience economics with all its exceptionalist ideas of substitution of scarce resources, problems solving with technology, innovative efficient growth, and yada, yada, yada.
Increasingly these BAUtopian beliefs and groups are coming under the pressure of reality. All that is left is lies, distortions, and manipulated data. They can still do goal seek analysis with exponential results far into the future to show all is well and will be well. They can use past results to base those exponential results. It all part of a support mechanism of hopium and denial. Alcoholics have many of the same traits that allow them to deny their disease. Denial and hopium are very powerful because the mind is mythic and superstitious from our primitive days. Why would that change?
The food security map is a BAU map without the systematic risk all locals are in because they all depend on BAU AG dynamics of monocultures, JIT distribution, and global finance to get food calories to where they are needed. Yet, we know places like Asia where there is substantial population overshoot the dangers are much worse. Food export regions have a better chance at mitigation. Urban areas across the globe are at risk. It does not matter if they are in a food producing region. The populations and the logistics are too large. Again Asia with a regional overshoot and Mega cities is at extreme risk.
Population control or not talk is useless because it is a non-issue from the point of view that this talk can achieve anything. China made a wonderful effort but they are in a horrible position now. China has overconsumption and overpopulation now making China in a worse position of unsustainability of over population, systematic exposure of overconsumption, and mega urban areas. The only path forward at this point is a natural population attrition from economic descent. This will be a mixture of unknown random results and known high risk areas bifurcating.
When our foundational liquid fuel source oil depletes past a certain point BAU will not function properly and begin its entropic decay. This will involve abandonment, system dysfunctions, and irrational policies. The end result of an entropic decay to a global system all locals survive upon is food insecurity and famines with no relief. This descent is unpredictable because climate and human nature are involved.
Any predications would be to determine those locals most at risk and use some statistics. We can assume per science that as a dynamic system bifurcates economic activity declines along with complexity and energy intensity. Food calories will drop along with this systematic decline and naturally population will follow. The generational drop of 200MIL on average excess deaths over births will be in full swing. Without a complex system driven by energy intensive fossil fuels 1BIL is likely our sustainable number. How long and how we get there is debatable.
We are at the cusp of that inflection from growth to descent. There is still room for idiots to preach false gods and hopium. The most important thing now for you as an individual is location relocation. Regionally and communities it is embracing sustainable local practices. For nations well nations are too large so they will only screw things up more. All nations are BAUtopian and will continue irrational growth policies within a descent paradigm. Nothing good will come out of that. Global suicide through NUK war at the national level is the other option but hasn’t that been the case since the 50’s. It may be more likely now as chaos enters the system from entropic decay. Desperate actions lead to desperate solutions.
Regardless of what path we are on it will be with population attrition from a global system in decay. Global locals of varying sustainability most with exposure to desperate migrations are all at risk to varying degree. Population issues are nature’s issues now. The rest is just BAUtpian talk or doomer talk which is good for forums but not effective. Blame and complain shows there is no consensus and no consensus means few vital mitigation and adaptation polices. There will be some bottom up efforts but many will be swallowed up in the shit storm ahead. I still preach prepping but without allusions of surety of success. This is the end days fasten the seat belts.
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