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Page added on August 16, 2015
Population and climate instability will lead to severe food shortages by 2050
The food industry has become much more efficient in the last few decades as a result of globalization, but also a lot more vulnerable to shocks. Climate change will lead not only to increased temperatures, but the extreme weather it causes in North, South America and Asia are likely to also lead to global food shortages.
Severe production shocks, with the food shortages, price spikes and market volatility that come with are likely to become three times as usual than today, according to a joint report by a US-British task force. These are likely to occur every 30 years by 2040.
The Task force on Extreme Weather and Global Food System Resilience estimated that due to a rise in the world population from 7.3 billion to 9 billion in 2050, food production will need to increase by more than 60 percent and climate-linked market disruptions could lead to civil unrest.
Global food production is likely to be most impacted by extreme weather events in North and South America and Asia, which produce most of the world’s four major crops – maize, soybean, wheat and rice.
“The climate is changing and weather records are being broken all the time. The risks of an event are growing, and it could be unprecedented in scale and extent,” said David King, the UK foreign minister’s Special Representative for Climate Change in the report.
King added that the world’s food system has become more efficient with globalization and new technologies but it has also become less resilient to risks.
Some of the major risks include a rapid rise in oil prices fueling food costs, reduced export capacity in Brazil, the United States or the Black Sea region due to infrastructure weakness, and the possible depreciation of the US dollar causing prices for dollar-listed commodities to spike.
But such shocks in production or price hikes are likely to hit some of the world’s poorest nations hardest such as import dependent countries in sub-Saharan Africa, the report said.
To ease the pain of increasingly likely shocks, the report urged countries not to impose export restrictions in the event of wild weather, as Russia did following a poor harvest in 2010.
The report stated that in order to meet the growing demand, agriculture itself needs to change. There is a rise in international demand and it is way more than agricultural yields and climate change will put further pressure on production.
This calls for timely response from the international community concerning price shocks in order to prevent civil unrest.
52 Comments on "Population and climate instability will lead to severe food shortages by 2050"
BobInget on Sun, 16th Aug 2015 9:14 am
NYT 2015
Drawing one of the strongest links yet between global warming and human conflict, researchers said Monday that an extreme drought in Syria between 2006 and 2009 was most likely due to climate change, and that the drought was a factor in the violent uprising that began there in 2011.
The drought was the worst in the country in modern times, and in a study published Monday in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the scientists laid the blame for it on a century-long trend toward warmer and drier conditions in the Eastern Mediterranean, rather than on natural climate variability.
The researchers said this trend matched computer simulations of how the region responds to increases in greenhouse-gas emissions, and appeared to be due to two factors: a weakening of winds that bring moisture-laden air from the Mediterranean and hotter temperatures that cause more evaporation.
Colin P. Kelley, the lead author of the study, said he and his colleagues found that while Syria and the rest of the region known as the Fertile Crescent were normally subject to periodic dry periods, “a drought this severe was two to three times more likely” because of the increasing aridity in the region.
Much more;
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/03/science/earth/study-links-syria-conflict-to-drought-caused-by-climate-change.html?_r=0
BobInget on Sun, 16th Aug 2015 9:21 am
(free) documentary on climate change refugees.
We needn’t wait 35 years, it’s happening rat now.
http://www.snagfilms.com/films/title/climate_refugees
Or,
Hulu http://www.hulu.com/watch/392828
Pennsyguy on Sun, 16th Aug 2015 10:40 am
I doubt if any of the major threats to civilization or humanity will be addressed in the 2016 U.S. election. Nobody likes pessimists, and that’s one reason why we are doomed.
Angli on Sun, 16th Aug 2015 11:22 am
The United States is fine. We
1. have nuclear weapons that prevents mass genocidal attacks
2. have a medium sized population relative to the area that we cover.
3. Are isolated geographically from existential threats.
All that’s going to happen will be a progressive shift of most of the population back to farm labor with “small towns” growing very large and cities shrinking. Desert and marginal regions will depopulate, and fertile regions will be populated.
Interstate Wars breaking out are not likely in a peak oil scenario because logistics will break down due to oil being scarce, making offensive behavior difficult to do with organized groups. of people. We’re more likely to encounter massive spikes in crime and potential for civil war in poorer countries than any large scale wars.
peakyeast on Sun, 16th Aug 2015 11:57 am
“Population and climate instability”…
This is just what is wrong…
What happened to the willfull destruction of EVERYTHING by the greedy and the human-rats?
Cant humanity take any responsibility for its own actions?
PrestonSturges on Sun, 16th Aug 2015 2:21 pm
That photo shows a lot of what’s wrong with Africa, where millions of people work bent over double with a short handled grub hoe, work that is often done by women. Just getting everyone to switch to a 1.5 m long handle for their hoe would give the economy of the whole continent a measurable bump Of course, we have our own set of cultural assumptions were are riding into oblivion, and that guy in the picture may even have a better chance of survival.
penury on Sun, 16th Aug 2015 3:02 pm
Angli I do not remember ever reading such an uniformed opinion, Please come back often.
peterev on Sun, 16th Aug 2015 3:35 pm
With all the parroting about climate change warming or not warming the planet, I thought that this might gives us some pause to think about and search for how solar activity affects earth temperature cycles. After all, there is a fundamental connection between our planet and the Sun.
I heard a scientist talk about her sun activity related abstract on NPR the other day. This scientist was investigating and modeling the Sun’s magnetic activitiy. At
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/07/150709092955.htm There is this summary from that page: “A new model of the Sun’s solar cycle is producing unprecedentedly accurate predictions of irregularities within the Sun’s 11-year heartbeat. The model draws on dynamo effects in two layers of the Sun, one close to the surface and one deep within its convection zone. Predictions from the model suggest that solar activity will fall by 60 per cent during the 2030s to conditions last seen during the ‘mini ice age’ that began in 1645.”
This goes along with other solar modeling summarized at:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle#Models
Some of the current graphing is depicting some of this activity from a decrease in solar activity during this solar cycle:
This shows 400 years of Sunspot Observations with an approximate 180 year cycle. This means we are due for minimum sunspot activity which is thought to be associated with reduced solar energy output.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/28/Sunspot_Numbers.png/400px-Sunspot_Numbers.png
This graph shows the last 2.5 sunspot cycles with a noticeable downward decline in number.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/5e/Solar_Cycle_Prediction.gif/400px-Solar_Cycle_Prediction.gif
What is interesting about this chart of Arctic Ice volume is that since 2010, there has been a noticeable upward trend in ice volume.
http://psc.apl.uw.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/SPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrentV2.1.png
and here:
http://psc.apl.uw.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/SPIOMASIceVolumeAprSepCurrent.png
**If all this is a trend**, we may see cooler temperatures on average in the near future and if the seas are slower to cool down, the added water vapor may cause more storms through cyclogenesis. Also the plastic gyres in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans may also be creating a cap over the water in which the water is heated underneath any translucent plastic sheets. It would be interesting to see if there are any studies related to the gyres forming a cover and heating up the local waters some.
beamofthewave on Sun, 16th Aug 2015 3:59 pm
we are not fine, check out what the models predict for us.
Apneaman on Sun, 16th Aug 2015 5:12 pm
Climate Change: Have We Reached the Point of No Return?
http://therealnews.com/t2/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=31&Itemid=74&jumival=14473
Apneaman on Sun, 16th Aug 2015 5:14 pm
Public perceptions of future threats to humanity and different societal responses:
A cross-national study
http://richardeckersley.com.au/attachments/Futures_future_threats__FINAL.pdf
Truth Has A Liberal Bias on Sun, 16th Aug 2015 6:43 pm
It won’t be long until Mexico is in the same condition as Yemen is today. At that point unregulated mass migration from South & Central America will overwhelm the USA and a Hobbesian scramble for survival will take place. By then the ‘government by ox cart’ will be of little use and the nation will breakdown in to a series of city states all in competition with one another for scarce resources. Due to the fact that most Americans are weak, lazy, in poor physical health and lack tolerance and perseverance it is my guess that the immigrants will outcompete the locals for resources. Any anthropologist will tell you that people steal before they starve and once the raiding party from the south gets going it will become an industry. Boat loads of unregulated immigrants will take to the water and head for USA from across the Gulf of Mexico. Waves of desperate and displaced people will inundate the southern border. A lot of porcelain is going to get broken.
Davy on Sun, 16th Aug 2015 7:17 pm
Biased truth, you are increasingly reminding me of a Hollywood movie.
Apneaman on Sun, 16th Aug 2015 8:11 pm
I’m learning Spanish.
Bienvenido a Canada. Trajiste tus raquetas? Se puede construir un iglú?
Makati1 on Sun, 16th Aug 2015 9:10 pm
“When the Lamb opened the third seal, I heard the third living creature say, “Come!” I looked, and there before me was a black horse! Its rider was holding a pair of scales in his hand. Then I heard what sounded like a voice among the four living creatures, saying, “Two pounds of wheat for a day’s wages, and six pounds of barley for a day’s wages, and do not damage the oil and the wine!” ”
This is usually believed to be “Famine”.”
Soon to be followed with: ”
“When the Lamb opened the fourth seal, I heard the voice of the fourth living creature say, “Come!” I looked, and there before me was a pale horse! Its rider was named Death, and Hades was following close behind him.”
This is stated outright to be Death. ‘Hades’ is usually taken to mean ‘the realm of the dead’ in this context.”
The first two are already riding: Pestilence (Monsanto) & War (Empire of Chaos). They left the barn in 2000, but Famine and Death are catching up.
We are getting to watch the end of humanity on the internet and in real life outside our doors.
Makati1 on Sun, 16th Aug 2015 9:20 pm
Angli, are those blinders pinching your brain?
1. Russia has more nukes than the US and China would be glad to step in and help with theirs.
2. The US has a lazy, obese, drugged up population that expects someone else to do their work. They will be helpless to even defend themselves in any life or death scenario.
3. Isolated? Really? Not in today’s world. You are a few minutes from submarine nuclear missiles. One EMT over Kansas and the US is history.
Get a REAL education by accessing news from outside the USMSM Iron Curtain, for your own health and future.
http://www.onlinenewspapers.com/
(in english)
You can access thousands of views on the world everyday.
Makati1 on Sun, 16th Aug 2015 9:29 pm
Apneamna, I wish I could learn foreign languages, but have zero aptitude in that area. I took Latin in high school which would have been useful had I fulfilled my dream to be a marine biologist. I tried German and Spanish in college, but gave up after a semester of each as I was barely passing.
That is one reason I love the Philippines. Thanks to the US making it a colony for 50 years, and forcing the schools to teach in English, I am benefiting now. I do not need to learn Tagalog, or any of the other 120+ languages spoken in the 7,000+ islands of the Philippines.
You are preparing for the future when Spanish will be spoken more than English in North America.
“To not prepare for the future is to prepare for failure.
Makati1 on Sun, 16th Aug 2015 10:29 pm
Meanwhile in the quieter part of the ME:
“Dubai theme park developer says project spending tops $1bn”
http://www.arabianbusiness.com/dubai-theme-park-developer-says-project-spending-tops-1bn-602525.html
Will it open a year from now or be rubble from the ME wars? We shall see.
Truth Has A Liberal Bias on Sun, 16th Aug 2015 11:59 pm
The Dark Ages will start in 2023. Unregulated mass migration, peak oil, climate change, pandemic and state failure will bring a hard-crash collapse. We are currently transitioning from a resource abundant industrial economy to a resource scarce industrial economy. By the mid 2020’s we’ll be well into a scavenger economy. Scavenger economy will last a considerable amount of time and as the resources to be scavenged dry up we’ll gradually transition to agricultural/nature-tech preindustrial economy.
Makati1 on Mon, 17th Aug 2015 12:56 am
Truth, those who make it that far, may live a life of hunter’s and gatherer’s but I doubt there will be much to hunt or gather. I really see the human species extinct by 2100. That is only 4 generations away. I doubt there will be even 2 more.
Why? Dead oceans, nuclear waste open to the world in at least 500 locations, (Fukushima times 500+) temps at least 8F to 10F higher than today, on average, with the ecosystem deaths that that means. The first years of hunger around the world will decimate ALL edible wildlife including rats and insects.
Many believe that it cannot happen that fast. I believe it will from all I have seen and read these last years. I believe that all we can do is prepare as best we can to ease the pain coming. The end story is already written.
GregT on Mon, 17th Aug 2015 1:38 am
BillT,
Sadly, I would have to agree with you.
Realist on Mon, 17th Aug 2015 5:40 am
There are no such concepts as peak oil, climate change or overpopulation. They are merely illusions caused by factual evidence. As The Cars sang…let the good times roll.
Kenz300 on Mon, 17th Aug 2015 6:54 am
“Population and climate instability will lead to severe food shortages by 2050”
Yet the world adds 80 million more mouths to feed, clothe, house and provide energy and water for every year……… endless population growth is not sustainable and only leads to more poverty, suffering and despair.
Birth Control Permanent Methods: Learn About Effectiveness
http://www.emedicinehealth.com/birth_control_permanent_methods/article_em.htm
Rodster on Mon, 17th Aug 2015 8:11 am
“I really see the human species extinct by 2100. That is only 4 generations away. I doubt there will be even 2 more.”
^^^This
freak on Mon, 17th Aug 2015 9:03 am
Among many climate scientists, gloom has set in. Things are worse than we think, but they can’t really talk about it.
http://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a36228/ballad-of-the-sad-climatologists-0815/
Lawfish1964 on Mon, 17th Aug 2015 10:25 am
When the SHTF, forget hunting. Hunting seasons will go out the window, and every living creature that can be shot will be shot to extinction in short order. That’s why I would prefer to have a small herd of goats. Pets until you need them, then a source of valuable protein. Chickens too. I’ve got the chickens, but no room for the goats on my urban farm.
Apneaman on Mon, 17th Aug 2015 11:19 am
Egypt, Sudan heat waves kill 108 people in August, authorities blaming climate change
http://mgafrica.com/article/2015-08-16-egypt-sudan-heat-wave-kills-108-people-in-august-authorities-blame-climate-change
bug on Mon, 17th Aug 2015 11:54 am
So lawfish, your goats also won’t get shot? The people starving will shot you then goats then chicks. Not trying to be a smartass, but that may be the reality. Also, you saying that you will shot them first is unrealistic as they may be many and have weapons also. If you see a way around this, please explain, as I am in the same boat on my farm.
Apneaman on Mon, 17th Aug 2015 12:07 pm
1,800 years of global ocean cooling halted by global warming
http://phys.org/news/2015-08-years-global-ocean-cooling-halted.html?utm_source=menu&utm_medium=link&utm_campaign=item-menu
Apneaman on Mon, 17th Aug 2015 12:09 pm
The U.S. is now at wildfire preparedness level 5 — the highest there is
“Back in June, the federal government was very worried that a bad wildfire season might be coming, exacerbated by drought throughout much of the west.
And now it has come to pass: On Thursday, the so-called National Preparedness Level for wildfires was elevated to 5, the highest there is, meaning that “geographic areas are experiencing major incidents which have the potential to exhaust all agency fire resources.” Indeed, large fires are now burning in 11 states, including 12 in Oregon and 14 in California.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/08/14/the-u-s-is-now-at-wildfire-preparedness-level-5-the-highest-there-is/
Davy on Mon, 17th Aug 2015 12:42 pm
Bug said “So lawfish, your goats also won’t get shot?”
Bug how do you know that an economic decline defaults to mad max? Who knows how this is all going to fall apart, how quick, and where. Personally I see the mad max scenario as our habituation to Hollywood action movies. I imagine many places are going to be a good deal more boring with just allot of pain and suffering. People pull together for security. Places without security will be wastelands. Mad max is likely but not certain nor is it certain how widespread. There are too many variables. Many who default to mad max theories have not thought collapse through.
GregT on Mon, 17th Aug 2015 1:34 pm
If you live in an area that has a high violent crime rate now, don’t expect things to get better in a collapse scenario.
bug on Mon, 17th Aug 2015 1:45 pm
I never said anywhere in my post or previous posts that the default is mad maxwell, ever. I actually agree with you. I was just asking another poster a question.
Davy on Mon, 17th Aug 2015 2:16 pm
Alright Bug, sounds like you are rural like me or least have some farm ground. I think about mad max too I think we can start avoiding mad max scenarios by educating people about collapse.
Mad max is a collapse and like collapse is a process. Mad max will occur but it doesn’t have to everywhere. We can also see forest gumps. Forest gump risked his life to help others. If we as a people think collapse means mad max that is what we will be ready to do. We are giving people outlets for their deranged fantasies.
It is important at this point in the collapse process that has just started that we discuss the conditions of collapse. Too much Hollywood and fictional reading. Maybe I am being too optimistic but if you locate yourself right your mad max meter should not go into the red.
bug on Mon, 17th Aug 2015 2:28 pm
My land is in a very rural area. Half woods half farmland. When I bought it people asked why. I never explained why, I just said I like to hear more birds and have more space and see more stars in the sky.
Alot of people want or think mad max is coming because, like you mentioned, they saw it on tv and they think it would be “fun” and they have Walter Mitty fantasies.
Davy on Mon, 17th Aug 2015 5:28 pm
Bug, what part of the world are you in? I am in central Missouri in the Ozarks. My place is mostly pasture with woody draws. Lots of forest around me. This is a cattle and goat farm so woods were not a priority. I have plenty of wood for heating though. I am even thinking about making charcoal by building a kiln.
Apneaman on Mon, 17th Aug 2015 5:30 pm
Mad max. There was only one Mad Max, yet a million soft middle class preppers who have never known real hardship all think they will be the man when the time comes. Most of them have not even been in a fist fight since grade school if ever. Anyone planning the lone wolf prepper scenario may have the hardest time not being around other people. What is the longest most can go without talking to someone? I did the experiment a decade ago in a cabin in the woods in North Carolina – nine days no people, no TV, no internet, no radio and after day six I was talking to myself out loud. I did have music and books. Most apes need high levels of social interaction to feel normal and once there is no more electronic intoxication to hide behind, people will quickly start to congregate just like we did for the majority of our 6 million year history as social monkeys. I’m sure all you middle aged and older guys can easily remember how only a couple of decades ago we spent way more time socializing with other people.
BC on Mon, 17th Aug 2015 5:39 pm
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02ztr2g
Live like a goat? The new post-Oil Age “high”-status lifestyle? 😀
bug on Mon, 17th Aug 2015 5:59 pm
Davy,Virginia Eastern Shore
Apnea, I agree with you, I like people, to a point, social gathering/get togethers and female interaction.
Davy on Mon, 17th Aug 2015 6:52 pm
Nice country Bug. Lots of people on east coast but at least you are far enough south you have some breathing room.
Apneaman on Mon, 17th Aug 2015 7:10 pm
Infectious Diseases Like It Hot: How Climate Change Helps Cholera and Salmonella Outbreaks
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/08/14/3691515/warmer-infectious-diseases/
bug on Mon, 17th Aug 2015 7:48 pm
Davy, and near the Atlantic
Davy on Mon, 17th Aug 2015 8:21 pm
Bug, watch those hurricanes there may be little to rebuild with in a few years.
Apneaman on Mon, 17th Aug 2015 8:25 pm
Dangerous Heat Sets Sights on Southern United States
” Over the next seven days, heat index values are predicted to remain in dangerous ranges across large sections of the Southern United States. Image source: NOAA.)
Regions at greatest risk include Southern California, Arizona, and the Gulf Coast states of Texas, Lousiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and Florida.
Heat index values in excess of 105 F (40 C) are considered dangerous. Those crossing a 127 F (53 C) threshold are considered exceedingly dangerous. The NOAA forecast now includes dangerous heat indexes predicted for the above regions lasting for at least the next seven days. And with sea surface temperatures likely to remain much hotter than average near the area of highest impact through the end of August, these high-risk heat conditions have the potential to continue for some time.”
http://robertscribbler.com/2015/08/17/dangerous-heat-sets-sights-on-southern-united-states/
bug on Mon, 17th Aug 2015 8:53 pm
Davy, true ,but…that’s life. Born near the water ,will die on it I figure. Thanks
Apneaman on Mon, 17th Aug 2015 9:10 pm
Long mind blowing article.
…………………………………
Louisiana Loses Its Boot
The boot-shaped state isn’t shaped like a boot anymore. That’s why we revised its iconic outline to reflect the truth about a sinking, disappearing place.
https://medium.com/matter/louisiana-loses-its-boot-b55b3bd52d1e
Makati1 on Mon, 17th Aug 2015 11:00 pm
LOL. As if anyplace will be safe from the pillaging gangs that will roam the countryside in the future. And they will be armed to the teeth with the best weapons the National Guard armories and gun shops can provide.
As I mentioned earlier, the US alone has some 33,000 gangs today, with over one million members, that are already killing and stealing. What will it be like when there are zero cops or military to protect the sheeple? The wolves will feast.
apneaman on Tue, 18th Aug 2015 1:20 pm
July 2015 was very likely Earth’s hottest month on record
“The warmest year on record so far may have claimed another milestone, and this time it’s a big one.
According to preliminary data from NASA along with information from the Japan Meteorological Administration, July 2015 was the warmest month on record since instrument temperature records began in the late 1800s.
Research using other data, such as tree rings, ice cores and coral formations in the ocean, have shown that the Earth is now the warmest it has been since at least 4,000 years ago.”
http://mashable.com/2015/08/17/july-hottest-month-on-earth/?utm_cid=hp-hh-pri
Kenz300 on Wed, 19th Aug 2015 9:10 am
The worlds worst environmental problem is OVER POPULATION.
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