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Page added on December 16, 2014
Panicked by population hysteria?
A steady stream of headlines are hyping a new journal article that claims that the world population is a terrifying goliath resolutely stomping towards human destruction. Written by two environmental scientists in Australia, Corey Bradshaw and Barry Brook, and edited by Paul Ehrlich, (a Stanford zoologist famous for his sensationalist claims about population growth in the 1970s) the article is the academic equivalent of a sensational tabloid article.
We here at the Population Research Institute have read both the journalistic commentary and the original article. We created the following primer to walk you through the smoke and mirrors to the actual facts.
Quote 1: “Roughly 14% of all the human beings that have ever existed are still alive today.”
Facts: Bradshaw commented on this statistic in his article saying, “Global population has risen so fast over the past century that roughly 14 per cent of all the human beings that have ever existed are still alive today – that’s a sobering statistic.” The statistic is not sobering, but elating; humans are “still alive” who would not have been a hundred years ago. In other words, there are so many people because we are living so much longer. Over the last 50 years, the average world life expectancy has increased by over 20 years.
Quote 2: “One of the problems is that there is still a large unmet need for more expansive and effective family-planning which has been previously hindered by . . . premature claims that rapid population growth has ended.”
Facts: The claims that rapid population growth has ended are not premature, but timely and factual. The world fertility rate halved over the past 50 years, from a world average of about 5 children to today’s world fertility rate of 2.4. Half of the world population lives in a country with total fertility rate below replacement level (2.1). Unless trends reverse, half of the world’s population lives in countries that will experience negative natural growth rates in the next 50 years. The full-effects of current low-fertility are only starting to become visible; most countries with below-replacement fertility haven’t started shrinking yet only because previous generations haven’t died from old age yet.
Quote 3: “The most striking aspect of the ‘hypothetical catastrophe’ scenarios was just how little effect even these severe mass mortality events had on the final population size projected for 2100. . . [The] projections all produced between 9.9 and 10.4 billion people by 2100.”
Facts: This part of the paper is receiving the most media attention, because doomsday predictions always sell. The authors of the article created population projections to estimate population numbers after a catastrophe, and concluded that even a war with 2 billion casualties wouldn’t dent population numbers.
However, when Bradshaw and Brook created their projections of a post-apocalyptic population, they made some sketchy assumptions. When describing their methodology for creating apocalyptic population projections, they write: “Although potentially exaggerated . . . we (arbitrarily) assumed that fertility would double.” Their presumed apocalyptic disaster didn’t shrink the population by 2100 because the authors arbitrarily (their words, not mine) presumed that world fertility would double.
Quote 4: “Enforcing a one child per female policy worldwide by 2045 resulted . . . in a rapid reduction to 3.45 billion by 2100.”
Facts: Population numbers respond slowly to changes in fertility, but—after a lag—even slight changes in fertility rates drastically shape population sizes. If world fertility fell by another 1.4 children (from its current 2.4), the next generation would grow old in a world that has half as many people as it does today.
It’s unlikely that the average world fertility rate will fall all the way to a world average of only one child by 2045. But world fertility rates are indeed plummeting. Demographers have coined a new term to describe current phenomenon: “lowest-low fertility” to describe the multitude of countries where women are having an average of 1.3 children or fewer. Approximately 10 countries currently fit this description. Another 100 countries have fertility rates below 2.1 children.
Population policies need to be based on facts, not hysteria and bad science. Demographers know that world population growth is plummeting, and human rights advocates know that population control programs are responsible for more systematic human rights abuses than any other policy this past century. Yet Brook and Bradshaw are fanning the fact-free fire of population hysteria. Let’s put out the fire and end the myths that pave the way for human rights abuses.
18 Comments on "Panicked by population hysteria?"
Apneaman on Tue, 16th Dec 2014 1:49 pm
I went to the link, but got a warning from my bad site monitor. These people are right wing pro lifers, Canadian style. The Campaign Life Coalition. Their very existence makes the case for abortion.
“The Campaign Life Coalition (often called Campaign Life) is a Canadian conservative Christian pro-life group.[1] It is based in Toronto, Ontario.[2] The organization has existed since the late 1970s, and it has long been active in political campaigns.”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Campaign_Life_Coalition
Dredd on Tue, 16th Dec 2014 1:52 pm
“We here at the Population Research Institute …”
How many thousand folks can you magicians fit into your conference room?
Some of us live on a finite planet you know.
noobtube on Tue, 16th Dec 2014 1:54 pm
An honest article about population.
And, it is not mass murdering, genocidal nonsense, hysteria, and fanaticism that is usually found on PeakOil about too many Chinese or Indians or Africans but not enough Europeans or Americans.
People are not the problem.
The Waste (I mean “the West”) is the problem.
Earth will solve this problem.
And this planet doesn’t care about how exceptional you are, or developed, or civilized, or 1st world, or advanced, or rich, or Democratic, or free, or entitled the Waste (I mean the West) thinks it is.
The Waste (I mean the West) will be stopped. That is their future on this planet.
ghung on Tue, 16th Dec 2014 2:20 pm
Noob: “An honest article about population.”
An honest assessment from one of our most critical thinkers…. sure. I have a rule of not resorting to ‘shooting the messengers’, but in the cases of Noob and the Population Research Institute, I’ll make an exception. Neither has ever written anything I’ve seen that’s worthy of a minute of my time…..
Time’s up.
Apneaman on Tue, 16th Dec 2014 2:46 pm
Your existence makes the case for abortion too Noob, but at least your entertaining.
JuanP on Tue, 16th Dec 2014 4:06 pm
This article is an unbelievable load of rubbish. Skip and go wash your hands.
shortonoil on Tue, 16th Dec 2014 5:22 pm
Must have skimmed it too fast; I missed the part where these “scientists” discussed the carrying capacity of the planet. “God save us from the righteous”!.
Thanks Apne.
dubya on Tue, 16th Dec 2014 5:24 pm
I guess the answer is “no”.
So, the 7 or whatever billions of us will have no effect on the earth because the rich countries are just staying stable at their unsustainable rates of consumption; and the poor ones are trying to determine the minimum amount of arable land per person.
May I have the last 3 minutes of my life back, please?
Newfie on Tue, 16th Dec 2014 5:45 pm
Population control will result in an age distribution with increasing numbers of “old” people. A steadily increasing population of older people implies skyrocketing health care costs. And the “younger” work force can only support so many older people. At some point the demographics of population control become untenable from an economic point of view. In a controlled population people may have to work until they quite literally die.
Davy on Tue, 16th Dec 2014 6:08 pm
Newff, The health care costs are going to be history soon. Much of the health care industry will implode with descent in energy intensity and complexity. It will be among the first to vanish. This is why I recommend living healthy now and get in and get all the diagnostic test you can get away with NOW.
Old people are going to be in big trouble soon. I am in my fifties and that means me. I am talking about me here as well as others. We will need our families to take care of us. We will need doctors that do house calls and can take care of the basics. The specialization that has prolonged life is nearly over. All that huge expense for the last year of life is done. These are among the first things to go. All of you need to knock 10 years off your idea of how long you are going to live. Quit smoking, heavy drinking, bad eating habits, and exercise because there will not be a pill or a surgeon for those really nasty conditions.
Poordogabone on Tue, 16th Dec 2014 6:26 pm
“At some point the demographics of population control become untenable from an economic point of view. In a controlled population people may have to work until they quite literally die.”
That is just absurd and shortsighted, it would balances out in less than 75 years. 2 children max per women would be a good policy to reduce population in a slow and controlled manner.
Kenz300 on Tue, 16th Dec 2014 6:46 pm
Access to family planning services needs to be available to all that want it…………..
If you can not provide for yourself you can not provide for a child……….. bringing a child into the world that you can not provide for is just cruel……
Makati1 on Tue, 16th Dec 2014 6:53 pm
I’m not worried. Mother Nature will take care of the excess, where ever they may be. She always has and always will. Natural laws cannot be amended or vetoed, only obeyed.
Apneaman on Tue, 16th Dec 2014 7:27 pm
Many retard evolution deniers are about to get a science lesson courtesy of the microscopic world. Money won’t save anyone when this deal goes full blow in a decade or so. Can you imagine a simple cut on your finger killing you?
The post-antibiotic future is here: Chilling report highlights the reality of a global crisis
http://www.salon.com/2014/12/05/the_post_antibiotic_future_is_here_chilling_report_highlights_the_reality_of_a_global_crisis/
Makati1 on Tue, 16th Dec 2014 8:31 pm
Apneaman, you are correct. Abscessed teeth, cuts, punctures, diarrhea, allergies, etc. will ALL soon be on the list of causes of death. Those who suffer from diabetes, or other med controlled diseases, will die off within weeks of the closing of drug stores. Cannot happen? Only in your dreams…
dashster on Wed, 17th Dec 2014 2:46 am
I wish they would run a steady stream of headlines trying to panic people about population growth in the United States. We still see it as part of the solution.
Kenz300 on Wed, 17th Dec 2014 7:28 am
The worlds worst environmental problem is OVER POPULATION.
OVER POPULATION makes every other problem harder to solve……..
Food crisis, water crisis, declining fish stock crisis, pollution crisis, Climate Change crisis, unemployment crisis all made worse by the over population crisis. Endless population growth only leads to more poverty, suffering and despair.
Adding 80 million more mouths to feed, clothe, house and provide energy for every year is not sustainable.
The worlds poorest people are having the most children. They have not figured out the connection between their poverty and family size. It should be easy to understand that if you can not provide for yourself you can not provide for a child.
Bringing a child into the world that you can not provide for it is cruel.
Family planning services needs to be available to all that want it.
Apneaman on Wed, 17th Dec 2014 9:53 am
The worlds worst environmental problem is OVERCONSUMPTION. Overconsumption by the wealthy 20%(us) who use 80% of the resources. Besides, Kenz300 you need the improvised masses of Africa to slave away mining the rare earths for all those wonderful electronic gadgets you love and that “Alternative Energy” you keep drooling over. That shit is so toxic we stopped mining it in N America. If when you get your next smart phone toy there is a sticker on the box that says “conflict free” don’t believe it, it’s only there so you can pretend to feel justified about your unearned privileged life. Same as fair trade and all those green washing lies too. Many young kids in Africa will be going to work today in hip deep toxic mud to hand mine coltan for some obese spoilt westerners next fashionable e-toy. It’s all about you.
http://www.sourceintelligence.com/what-are-conflict-minerals