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Page added on April 6, 2013
Overpopulation A Concern Of The Past? This Study Thinks So.
Overpopulation may not be such a big threat after all: using global population data from 1900 to 2010, scientists have developed a mathematical model showing that the number of Earth’s inhabitants may level off in the next 40 years.
Conducted by a team of researchers from the Autonomous University of Madrid and CEU-San Pablo University, the numbers correspond with the lower estimates developed by the United Nations, which fall as high as 15.8 billion by 2100 in the case of high fertility and as low as 6.2 billion given low fertility.
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The study, published in the journal Simulation, considered the Earth as a closed and finite system in which migration did not alter the principle of the conservation of mass (in this case people) and energy is fulfilled, according to a press release. Furthermore, it adjusted for the possibility of moving between zones of the two-level system, which is to say researchers took into account the fact that periods of high and low fertility may alternate over the next several decades.
“Within this general principle, the variables that limit the upper and lower zone of the system’s two levels are the birth and mortality rates,” UAM researcher and study co-author Felix F. Muñoz explained.
Describing the past, Muñoz said, “We started with a general situation where both the birth rate and mortality rate were high, with slow growth favoring the former, but the mortality rate fell sharply in the second half of the 20th century as a result of advances in healthcare and increased life expectancy and it seemed that the population would grow a lot. However, the past three decades have also seen a steep drop-off in the number of children being born worldwide.”
As an exmaple, Muñoz pointed to a 1992 prediction that a total of 7.17 billion people would inhabit the Earth by 2010. However, when the year actually rolled around, that number was just 6.8 billion. In all, the study states, fertility rates has fallen by more than 40 percent since 1950.
9 Comments on "Overpopulation A Concern Of The Past? This Study Thinks So."
rollin on Sat, 6th Apr 2013 1:28 pm
This is old news and has been publicly disseminated for quite a while now, the final numbers being somewhere around 9 billion.
Of course that does not change the continued use of 1.5 times the earth’s resources and the continued upward movement of large portions of the population toward higher consumption.
Kenz300 on Sat, 6th Apr 2013 1:38 pm
Too many people and too few resources. Endless population growth is not sustainable.
Every country needs to develop a plan to balance its population with its resources, food, water, energy and JOBS.
Those that do not will be exporting their populations and their problems.
If you can not provide for yourself you can not provide for a child. Access to family planning services needs to be available to all that want it.
Over population of the world will impact everyone no matter where you live. Food, water, energy and jobs are needed by us all.
DC on Sat, 6th Apr 2013 2:03 pm
What a crap article, talk about clutching at straws. In 2012-13 we passed 7 billion. That study they quote estimate was out by a mere 2 years and that projection was made 18 years earlier.
Pretty good estimate actually, only out by a few %.
BillT on Sat, 6th Apr 2013 2:15 pm
At current increase (79,000,000 in the last 12 months) we will have 8 billion by 2025. Assuming that major disasters do not happen before that to skew the numbers. Like: collapse of the world economy/financial system, wars, pestilance, famine, etc. We live in very interesting times.
Frank Kling on Sat, 6th Apr 2013 8:46 pm
Overpopulation MAY not be such a threat because population numbers MAY level off in 40 years.
Global climate change MAY not be a threat because non-fosil fuel generated energy sources MAY be developed in 40 years.
What a a pathetically stupid article,
kervennic on Sat, 6th Apr 2013 9:02 pm
One can simulate what he wants, that does not change real facts.
Such a simulation is groundless because it cannot foresee the continuation of present trends regarding birth rates. No one can.
Why birth rate are low in italy but steady beyond renwal in France ? Why should the stay low in italy, spain or germany on the long run ?
Why should birth rate sink in nigeria, niger and other similar countries ? Because they will live up to the western social standard ? Why is it so ? Isn’t the socio economic world situation very different today then it was 40 years ago when many countries started to shift to lower birth rate ?
What is the effect of migration ? This make the situatin quite asymetrical and comparison with other country historical behavion quite irrelevant.
Arthur on Sun, 7th Apr 2013 12:46 am
“Why birth rate are low in italy but steady beyond renwal in France ? Why should the stay low in italy, spain or germany on the long run ?”
Because France has the highest number of muslim immigrants in Europe, much higher than in Italy, Spain or Germany. Unsurprisingly France also has the largest nationalist party in Europe.
Low birthrates are fine as Europe is overpopulated as it is. Unfortunately France is spoiling the picture with it’s reckless suicidal immigration policies.
“What is the effect of migration ?”
Study Yugoslavia, Iraq and Syria and you will know the answer: genocide.
GregT on Sun, 7th Apr 2013 4:54 pm
I doubt that there will be much of an overpopulation problem by 2053.
http://arctic-news.blogspot.co.nz/2013/04/how-much-will-temperatures-rise.html
Kenz300 on Mon, 8th Apr 2013 1:06 am
Seems like the poorest people are having the most children.
If you can not provide for yourself you can not provide for a child.
Access to family planning services needs to be available to all that want it.
Endless population growth leads to more poverty, suffering and despair.