A tiny blip in the news media registered the fact that atmospheric carbon dioxide has exceeded four hundred parts per million for the first time in the history of the human species, with no sign of slowing down. Among other things, it means that ocean levels will be going up by at least 30 feet, putting most of the world’s major cities underwater. Almost the entire Eastern Seaboard of the United States—the most densely settled strip of land in the country, with the most infrastructure and physical assets—will become uninhabitable. Other countries—Bangladesh, Netherlands, a long list of low-lying island nations—will disappear under the waves entirely.

There are as yet no solid predictions as to how fast the waters will rise, but if the history of such predictions is any guide, they have a tendency to double with each revision. What’s more, the predictions are not even keeping up with reality: not so long ago the talk was of a few inches per century, but then an entire extra foot of water showed up along much of the east coast, and it is now typical to have electrical transformers explode during storm surges, which were supposed to be high and dry but now aren’t.

Rather than being isolated events, such incidents are an indication of what will become a constant drumbeat in people’s lives—most people’s lives, since most people live along coasts. Suburban neighborhoods will wink out of existence one after another as they flood, losing electricity, water and sewage, and are recognized as a total loss, not worth rebuilding given that the next storm will no doubt cause even greater damage. Some of the environmental refugees will be resettled a bit further inland, in areas not destroyed yet, but washed out roads, collapsed bridges and submerged highway tunnels will derail many such evacuation plans. Desperate people will no doubt attempt to flee to some supposedly better place in another part of the world—to farm the banana belts of Siberia, perhaps, or to raise camels in the Canadian Arctic—but by then cheap airline travel will be a thing of the past, while seaports will be underwater and unusable.

Nature’s prescription for those who ruin their habitat is extinction, and it will be your fate too, unless you adapt to life in the new environment. In the new, permanently disrupted habitat, conventional housing is clearly maladaptive. On the other hand, the Dutch, who are accustomed to life in a flood zone and resigned to what’s coming, have been building houses on barges for a long time now, tethering them to pilings so that they float up during storm surges. Some further adaptations are obvious: a house in a flood zone is a terrible idea, unless it floats, generates a bit of its own electricity, captures rainwater for drinking and washing, and has a means of propulsion for when it’s time to take advantage of high water and move to very slightly higher ground. And if it does all these things, then a flood zone is where you’d want to live, because land that is in the process of becoming water is generally free, and there will be more ad more of it with each passing hurricane season.

15 Comments on "Orlov: Look for loopholes to avoid extinction"

J-Gav on Tue, 14th May 2013 6:00 pm 



Right on, Dmitry, counting on planning boards to solve peoples’ problems is a losing proposition. ‘Part from that, don’t pretend to know when the 30-foot sea-level rise will be effective but I tend to think there will be many other highly urban-disruptive situations appearing before that one takes its devastating toll. Inland low-ground is still not necessarily a bad bet, however, if it’s along a small river capable of generating micro-hydro power and includes arable land … with some solar of course. Well beyond the reach of the vast majority of people even in the ‘most-developed’ countries so all I can say is plan carefully and good luck folks! Extinction is hardly impossible but neither is putting it off for a while yet …

dsula on Tue, 14th May 2013 6:15 pm 



A zoning Nazi? What the hell is that? Better a zoning Nazi than a central banker Jew, I say.

IanC on Tue, 14th May 2013 6:45 pm 



Prime river bottom farming land will also be a casualty of rising sea levels, I’d guess. Best to try to increase the fertility of hilly land with better drainage. Water catchment and drip irrigation would also be helpful there. If productive farmland is underwater, our food production will be adversely affected. There will be little or no room for big agribusiness, monoculture fields anymore. Diversified, low fossil fuel using, family farm using permaculture principles should become the norm.

Arthur on Tue, 14th May 2013 7:11 pm 



http://flood.firetree.net/

Interactive map to see what part of Europe is going to be flooded as a function of see level rise. Holland can handle 3 feet. More will be fatal for at least half the country. I am living in the east of the country at +22 meter.

Rick on Tue, 14th May 2013 7:27 pm 



All this crap happening on this planet, is a direct result of too many people.

Again, I never had kids.

Anyway, yes climate change is real, and it’s just starting to wake up some folks. As for the sea level rise, I give it another 30 – 50 years before it wipes out much of the coasts and low islands, around the world.

Arthur on Tue, 14th May 2013 8:10 pm 



http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2323300/UK-Weather-Last-years-wash-summer-predicted-repeat-heavy-showers-cold-weather-forecast-rest-May.html

It is going to be a wet cold windy summer.

Global warming?

Promisses, promisses, promisses.

rollin on Tue, 14th May 2013 8:20 pm 



Orlov is a riot, he acts like sea level rise is like Noah’s flood. It will take 200 to 500 years to flood the coasts 20 to 30 feet. The first major damage to ports and low lying regions will occur this century but 30 feet will take a long time to rise, plenty of time to adjust and move. Lots of money to be made in the moving and rebuilding of port and ocean-side structures.

Transformers are blowing because they are old, the whole electrical system is old. I have had three transformers blow in my neighborhood in the last few years and I don’t live anywhere near a flood zone. A power station near me replaced a main transformer three times in one year because all the replacements were old, not even made in this country anymore as far as I know.
Profits being made but upgrades and replacements are not.

Yes, the legal system will have to change with changing circumstances and a lot of the old ways will have to go.

I don’t see his big leap to extinction.
He gives no real support to that leap of “logic”.

GregT on Tue, 14th May 2013 8:20 pm 



All of this crap happening around the world, including overpopulation, is a result of cheap excess energy.

Some of the most fertile and productive lands on Earth are on river deltas. Many of which will be the first areas to be submerged due to rising sea levels.

Now would be a wise time to move out of the cities and learn how to grow food.

GregT on Tue, 14th May 2013 8:33 pm 



Arthur,

Global warming is so 1980s. Climate change is now. You are a little behind on the subject matter.

mike on Tue, 14th May 2013 9:50 pm 



@Arthur, oh look another idiot who seems to think that global warming = hot weather. Try reading a book sometime, any book will do, even a Dr Zeus book will hopefully jolt your brain into some kind of thinking capacity.

BillT on Wed, 15th May 2013 3:05 am 



rollin, the oceans could possibly rise 20 to 30 feet in a year or less. The West Antarctic ice shelf could do it by itself if it slides into the sea from lubricated soil under it due to ice melt. The poles are warmong up much faster than the reat of the world. You should be concerned, if you live near the coast.

There is enough land ice to raise the oceans over 250 feet. Use Google Earth and look at where THAT elevation is in relationship to your country. The entire coast line of America would disappear for several hundred miles inland. Most of it’s cities would disappear. Nuclear facilities, chemical plants, etc, underwater.

Mother Nature holds ALL of the aces in this game. Humans have the deuces.

GregT on Wed, 15th May 2013 4:09 am 



Mike,

Arthur is no idiot, his understanding of political science is paramount. He just needs to spend a small fraction of his time investigating climate change. When he does I am sure that he will come around.

mike on Wed, 15th May 2013 7:52 am 



And yet he can’t even understand a simple concept like global warming. Just goes to prove political science is a load of old bullshit as I expected.

BillT on Wed, 15th May 2013 3:48 pm 



mike, you are correct, political science and economics are voodoo ‘science’. Nothing real to back them up. People looking in the rear view mirror to see the future.

rollin on Thu, 16th May 2013 1:04 am 



BillT, no one is predicting the time line for the disintegration of the W Antarctic Ice Sheet, which would add 3.3 meters to ocean level. They don’t know enough about the system. check out Richard Alley and James Hansen on the subject.
There are also excellent physical reasons that the W Antarctic Ice Sheet would not toboggan ride into the ocean. It sits on hills and valleys, not a smooth surface. Also much of it is already below sea level.