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Page added on June 10, 2016
Never Cry Wolf! The Worst Climate Prediction Ever Made
If you cry wolf, and the wolf doesn’t come, you’ll make a fool of yourself. But it will be much worse if you don’t cry wolf, and the wolf comes.
Professor Nicola Scafetta, showing his 2010 predictions for global temperatures (from Meteo Live News). These predictions turned out to be spectacularly wrong.
The debate on anything that has to do with the future often becomes a peculiar version of the story of “Crying Wolf”. Assume that somebody cries wolf and that the wolf doesn’t come. Then, someone else will often conclude that wolves don’t exist (or are something nobody should be worried about). Something similar occurs in areas such as climate science when past uncertainties are taken as indicating that climate change does not exist (or is something nobody should be worried about.)
Truly, it is a perversion of logic, but it has its reasons. Suppose that the appearance of wolves is relatively rare; then, even though you may know nearly nothing about wolves, it is a safe bet that you will be much more popular with shepherds if you tell them that the wolf won’t come. And, normally, you will be able to claim that you were right; except when the wolf comes, of course, But, in that case it is likely that shepherds will be much more worried about saving their sheep than about chastising you for your incompetence in wolf matters.
Something similar seems to be happening with climate change where plenty of people, usually knowing very little about climate science, tend to reassure people that climate change doesn’t exist or that it is nothing to be worried about. Inasmuch as waterfront houses are not normally washed away every week by hurricanes and sea level rising, these reassuring predictors can claim to have been right,
But sometimes even doomslayers may have a bad time when they try to make quantitative predictions. One remarkable case is that of Nicola Scafetta, who attempted to use a sophisticated statistical treatment (aka: let’s torture the data until they confess) to prove that global warming is mainly caused by long-term planetary cycles. On the basis of his models, in 2010, he predicted that global temperatures should have remained constant or should have been going down; while in 2012 that temperatures should have been growing at a much slower rate than predicted by the standard climate models.
Well, if there existed a prize for the worst climate predictions, I think these ones by Scafetta could legitimately concur for it. Global temperatures refused to follow his prediction and are actually exceeding the result of the IPCC models that Scafetta had criticized.
Judge by yourself; below, you can see the results presented by Scafetta in 2010 (N. Scafetta. I cicli climatici e le loro implicazioni. Periodico semestrale dell’Associazione Normalisti. n.2 dicembre 2010) (see also this link). Recent temperature data added in red.
Some more recent predictions by Scafetta are a little better, but still widely off the mark (recent temperature data added in red)
So, here is the conclusion: since we have solid physical evidence that wolves exist (unlike dragons and unicorns), you’d better pay attention to those who tell you that your sheep could be in danger. In the same way, since we have solid physical evidence that greenhouse gases cause warming and that their concentration is increasing, you’d better pay attention to those who tell you that your waterfront property is in danger (and not just that!)
Acknowlegement: Stefano Caserini prepared the figures shown in this article.
Cassandra’s legacy by Ugo Bardi
41 Comments on "Never Cry Wolf! The Worst Climate Prediction Ever Made"
onlooker on Fri, 10th Jun 2016 7:05 pm
And what about those who are not only not crying wolf but actively saying do not worry no wolves exist or they are not anywhere nearby. Anticassandras or more like liars.
makati1 on Fri, 10th Jun 2016 7:14 pm
Predicting dates or times of events is not possible today because so many lies and red herrings are used to fool the fools that it is impossible. but trends do point to the fact that these events WILL occur eventually and the closer to that time, the more obvious it becomes, if only to the open minded.
The time to prepare for these negative events is yesterday, but if you start now, you will be better prepared than if you procrastinate another day or week or …
shortonoil on Fri, 10th Jun 2016 7:42 pm
If that Jan-April trend continues there isn’t anything to worry about. Most of us will likely be dead in about 5 years! I am either going to assume that it is some kind of anomaly, or start working on my head stone. 3.5 °C in five years would likely finish off the planet! If you have a lot of Floridians start moving in next store, start investing in ice cubes.
Plantagenet on Fri, 10th Jun 2016 7:47 pm
Prof. Scafetta may’ve been spectacularly wrong in his prediction that the climate would start cooling in 2010, but the IPCC may also be underestimating the rate of warming. The 2016 temp data so far almost exceeds the the range of warming predicted by the IPCC.
Cheers!
Dustin Hoffman on Fri, 10th Jun 2016 8:03 pm
Suppose if not us all writing on our tombstones, the little tots we see romping on the rugs will hopefully be up to the task….the life span placement lottery can be so unfair….
Davy on Fri, 10th Jun 2016 8:30 pm
“Guess What Else Climate Change Hurts? Globalization”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-10/guess-what-else-climate-change-hurts-globalization
“Manufacturing these days involves facilities in multiple countries, each of which has a sequential role in taking raw materials a step closer to being finished products. Imported materials may remain unfinished, even after they’re exported to the next station on the international assembly line. This “vertical specialization,” it turns out, may have a blind spot when it comes to climate change, according to new research from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. Manufacturing is only as strong as the weakest, or in this case hottest, link in the supply chain.”
“We usually think that trade will allow us to adapt to climate change,” said Solomon Hsiang, a public-policy professor at the University of California-Berkeley who has studied the effects of climate change on economic performance, “but this analysis highlights ways in which vulnerability to climatic events might actually increase our exposure to climatic risks.”
GregT on Fri, 10th Jun 2016 10:20 pm
“The 2016 temp data so far almost exceeds the the range of warming predicted by the IPCC.”
Almost???
Maybe Trump can make a deal with Putin. Let Russia annex Alaska back in exchange for a few more years worth of affordable oil, before Alaska becomes the new death valley.
At least there won’t be such a horrendous mosquito problem. Every cloud always has it’s silver lining.
Cheers! 🙂
Jim Pappas on Fri, 10th Jun 2016 10:42 pm
And the point of this article, is . . . ?
I’m sorry, but if you actually use logic, and research, you realize the truth. Of course it is an “inconvenient” truth for those of you who think climate change is something we can actually do something about, and that it is going to amount to some actual catastrophe. The smart thing to do is to PREPARE for any eventuality. This pointless self-flagellation and overt fear-mongering is about as counterproductive as can be possible.
steve on Fri, 10th Jun 2016 10:50 pm
Are you serious?
Climate change activists continuously concoct all of these absurd doomsday predictions (since at least 1993!) which are no where near happening. (for example: Miami beach is not being flooded; it is sinking. (t is 90 year old fill over a mangrove swamp – FACT).
& you claim that someone questioning this nonsense is “crying wolf”.
GROW UP !
dave thompson on Fri, 10th Jun 2016 11:01 pm
Lets all non-work together and SHUT IT DOWN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Now listen up and dig this,stay home, talk to your neighbor, meditate on mindful loving kindness. Spend no money on anything other then necessities. Enjoy the butterfly, knowing full well the flap of the wing brings certain death to all…… eventually. together we can SHUT IT DOWN!!!!!!!!!!!!!
makati1 on Fri, 10th Jun 2016 11:07 pm
Steve and Jim live in Lala Land. The f–king oceans are rising all over the world and they single out Miami. Be patient guys all of the predictions posted by the preppers are going to come true in the next few years to decade. Just add another Degree to the world temps this year and a degree next and….
GregT on Sat, 11th Jun 2016 12:36 am
“for example: Miami beach is not being flooded; it is sinking.”
Correct Steve, and the Arctic is not warming up, in actuality, it was really too cold to begin with.
Stop paying attention to the world’s leading scientific research people. GROW UP, and listen to Steve.
Steve be da man! All hail Steve!!
GregT on Sat, 11th Jun 2016 12:55 am
“Lets all non-work together and SHUT IT DOWN!!”
Still not quite relating to your sense of humour dave?
Northwest Resident on Sat, 11th Jun 2016 1:20 am
“eventually, together we can shut it down!!”
No need. The global economic system along with the political and financial cogs that support it are shutting down of their own accord, over-burdened with debt, deprived of resources, and unable to continue hiding the ugly truth from an increasingly restless and disconnected populace.
“Things turn notoriously Crazy near the end. We have witnessed Historic Crazy.”
From http://creditbubblebulletin.blogspot.com/.
We ARE witnessing Historic Crazy. And it is only going to get crazier day by day.
The dominoes are falling. Each day. BAU has become a punching bag with reality landing blow after blow after blow. BAU is staggering on the ropes but the blows just keep on falling. BAU and the lifestyles it supports will all be going down for the count soon enough.
The Ponzi Scheme that modern technologically-driven capitalism has become is and has been on its last leg. Central Bank wizardry has extended the day of reckoning for a while. The ONLY thing preventing collapse — mountains of newly created debt combined with ZIRP/NIRP — has already breached peak effectiveness and is quickly waning. Geopolitical realities are crushing the illusion of all is well. The burden of debt is becoming unbearable. The greatest Ponzi Scheme in human history is ready to implode.
No effort required. SHUT DOWN is imminent.
dave thompson on Sat, 11th Jun 2016 1:56 am
OK now lets think for a sec…………………. Tell the one closest and furthest to you that you love them, SHUT IT DOWN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
GregT on Sat, 11th Jun 2016 2:55 am
“No need. The global economic system along with the political and financial cogs that support it are shutting down of their own accord”
As usual, completely agree NWR. I’m still having a problem relating to dave’s sense of humour. Unless he’s being serious?
dave thompson on Sat, 11th Jun 2016 3:07 am
Yes serious in the sense, of it does not take much, consumption as a thing can be brought to a standstill. By the people for the people we the people can stop the machine stop it now. ditch work stay home talk to your next door neighbor. FUCK the corptockripists!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
makati1 on Sat, 11th Jun 2016 5:01 am
dave… you are becoming delusional.
Who can afford to “stay home and talk to your neighbors”? Unless you live in your parent’s basement, you need to hustle for the man or die. The system makes you a slave either way. Government teat or worker bee. So, YOU “shut it down” and come back and share your adventure with us.
onlooker on Sat, 11th Jun 2016 5:02 am
Shut down is better maybe though not for us right now but we have to chose do we want Industrial Civilization or a living planet for future generations of life including our species. We cannot have both.
makati1 on Sat, 11th Jun 2016 5:03 am
Glitch in P.O’s program?
All the comments run off the page on the right. LOL
makati1 on Sat, 11th Jun 2016 5:09 am
onlooker, TPTB make it almost impossible to drop out of the system without going to jail.
Try not reporting to the IRS every April 15th. There is nowhere in the world you can escape their clutches.
Try traveling without ‘papers’ anywhere outside the American Gulag. Not possible.
Less than 100 years ago, you could go anywhere in the world without papers or even a need to ask permission of anyone. The day is soon coming when you will need ‘papers’ to leave your town or county.
makati1 on Sat, 11th Jun 2016 5:10 am
BTW: Those jails in the Us are profit making businesses. Gotta keep them full!
onlooker on Sat, 11th Jun 2016 6:20 am
So true Mak. Try hunting without a license, try living in any wilderness area without approval or setting up a dwelling. If they even allow you to set up a doomstead or homestead I am sure you will be taxed. I know I have also looked into this. I am sure some here like Greg and Ghung can speak about this. But yes the overall point is true. In fact worldwide they’re has been a campaign to make WATER really commercial via water bottles and such. Your point though about the level of monetary control Mak is especially pertinent here in US. Barring some mass revolution the elite govt here in US would NOT permit lone wolfs and other similar types from really taking hold. But I do sense some real push back from Ordinary Americans.
Davy on Sat, 11th Jun 2016 6:30 am
First you need to ask yourself “shut down what”. There are so many places to start. The shut it down needs to start inside yourself first. You need to ask yourself how you yourself within yourself need to “shut it down”. We need to start at square one and that square is you and your attitudes and lifestyles. There are so many blamers and complainers on this board that can’t look in the mirror. They act special and righteous. Their day is spent pointing out other people’s problems saying things like “Do” “not wish” BS. These people represent the worst of man and that is a vicious cycle of narcissistic pathologies.
At society’s level where do you start? Do you start with poor food choices or destructive leisure? Do we want to point to consumerism or decadent capitalism and dysfunctional democracy? We are the problem as humans. We have chosen a de facto religion of progress through technology and prosperity. Most all of us are touched by this. Most of us base our worth on success and prosperity. Not all of this is bad but a significant part of this is part of the problem because when destructive attitudes combine with complexity a destructive self-organizing system develops. This system becomes adaptive and expansive. Modern life is now a cancer of unsustainability and destructive progress.
We are destroying ourselves to advance ourselves. We are in effect getting nowhere so what we consider progress is in reality existential suicide. We are powerless to change because this is all we know. If we were less an immediacy creature and more a spiritual creature we could reflect better on this. Instead we come up with all kinds of insane reasoning to justify it and perpetuate this existential insanity. Our modern way of life is a systematic mechanization of a species drive to survive that has gone haywire. It has gone beyond human to the mechanical and electronic. Our equipment of life are based on it. Our computers promote it. We are now slaves and cogs like no other time in history yet we feel in many ways exceptional because we can fly around the earth or google life’s deepest realities.
Modern life is a paradox that has turned catch 22. This is a trap because what we are programed to think is right is wrong. No, not the basics timeless ethics of life just the way of life. This religions of globalistic consumption is now in its late stages of corruption that all systems enter. This is the basis of lifecycles and succession. It is the frequency of life. Natural systems have complexity that become brittle and impervious to beneficial change and bifurcate in a cycle of growth and decay.
If we can do anything in this situation it is to emulate nature. Traditional religion cannot help us at this level because it has been corrupted by this reality. Don’t worry about discarding them because their dysfunctions heal when nature is embraced. We must properly place ourselves in relation to nature’s way. Nature must be our guide and we must submit to her. Nature is clearly in an evolutionary process of extinction and environmental complexity reduction currently.
We can say this is our fault but at a deeper level it is a natural expression of life. At this level then we must quit the blame and complain and adapt to collapse as a new religion. This involves acceptance of death and destructive change. It acknowledges decay as the predominant force in the natural ecosystem. If Nature then becomes our mother and garners real and genuine respect you will change and you will shut “it” down. You will know what the “It” is when you attain this spiritual level. If not you will continue to do as you are doing. We are in a spiritual age of material destruction. The momentum of this epochal paradigm of destructive change is beyond our control at all levels but it is not above our acceptance.
What matter is inside you. If you want to get closer to the truth and embracing the truth is the real value in your life then you will shut it down in your own little world. The best humans can do in this end game of modern man is embrace the end game as nature’s way because “it” is. Acceptance of this takes you to a level and then you will go forth on nature’s behalf and become her handmaiden. You cannot lose because the stars are on your side.
If my morning preaching sounds full of BS it is because I am describing a nonlinear multiple ascending level of reality with linear thinking with a handful of words. To find real transcendence you must break the linear bonds and go nonlinear. My point is to be nonlinear and for humans this means embracing and submitting to nature without linear reflection. Just know it is right and go forth on her behalf. It is so simple it is an enigma.
onlooker on Sat, 11th Jun 2016 6:45 am
Darn this glitch in the comments section. Anyway Davy, it is quite true we are in a Catch 22 or Paradox. We have become so inured and reliant on Civilization to provide for us and we completely divorced ourselves from other options and discarded them. Yet, paradoxically it is Civilization which is bringing all the human species closer to total ruin. So, the thought or idea that has crystallized inside my head in this one. We have a simple yet profound choice to make all of us. It is consistent with your idea of the need for Acceptance. We have to chose if we wish to maintain Industrial Civilization or a Living planet. We cannot have both. To chose means for every person on this planet to the least possible support Civilization and be plugged into it. It means most of us having to courage to go into the unknown without the support of structure and order so as to allow natural processes to run their course. It would signify much loss of life, stability and certainty but it would also give life including our species the chance for a future. To prolong with insanity is to forgo ANY FUTURE
onlooker on Sat, 11th Jun 2016 6:47 am
prolong this insanity
Davy on Sat, 11th Jun 2016 7:05 am
Looker, at the risk of pissing some off I will put it in a no infected comment section.
Kenz300 on Sat, 11th Jun 2016 7:07 am
Pope Francis’s edict on climate change will anger deniers and US churches | World news | The Guardian
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/dec/27/pope-francis-edict-climate-change-us-rightwing
Head Of The Episcopal Church Says It’s ‘Sinful’ To Ignore Climate Change
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/03/26/katherine-jefferts-schori-climate-change_n_6949532.html?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green
dissident on Sat, 11th Jun 2016 7:32 am
Ugo Bardi is a liar. His red surface temperature curve after 2000 is a total fraud. In contrast, the two red dots attributed to Scafetta (as if there are no real observations) are real. Bardi is trying to claim that there was a cooling trend after 2000 and that the “Bardi” dots are fake. This is a complete lie.
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3/Fig.A.gif
dave thompson on Sat, 11th Jun 2016 9:11 am
YES I am (sarcastic) going to SHUT IT DOWN!
Dustin Hoffman on Sat, 11th Jun 2016 9:45 am
It’s ALL a LIE…we’ve been lied to …
Fallen down…best NOT to know the truth!
Apneaman on Sat, 11th Jun 2016 10:42 am
No need for any models – just look around (or read my links) at the ever growing number of changes and disasters.
Greenland witnessed its highest June temperature ever recorded on Thursday
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/06/10/greenland-witnessed-its-highest-june-temperature-ever-recorded-on-thursday/
Apneaman on Sat, 11th Jun 2016 10:44 am
File under: no fucking kidding.
Paris floods made almost twice as likely by climate change, say scientists
Manmade global warming greatly increased the risk of extreme rain affecting the French capital, analysis shows
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jun/10/paris-floods-made-almost-twice-as-likely-by-climate-change-say-scientists
Apneaman on Sat, 11th Jun 2016 10:46 am
Alaska Is Having Hottest Year Since Records Began
“Between March and May of this year, the meteorological spring, the entire state has been about 10 degrees hotter than normal, with an average temperature of 32 F.
“That may sound cold,” Climate Central noted, “but warmth is a relative term. That temperature handily beat the previous record hot spring of 1998 by 2 F (1 C), according to NOAA.”
The cities of Anchorage, Fairbanks and Juneau have experienced their hottest springs since records began.”
http://ecowatch.com/2016/06/10/alaska-hottest-year/
Apneaman on Sat, 11th Jun 2016 10:59 am
Disappearing source of the Ganga
The Gangotri glacier has retreated by 3 km in what experts say is an irreversible trend
“Scientists say dwindling snowfall reduces the volume of water fed to the Bhagirathi, the main source of the Ganga.”
“With ten Indian States reeling under drought and the country facing a severe water crisis after two weak monsoons, the disappearing freshwater sources such as the Himalayan glaciers is worrying. And though a three-kilometre retreat over two centuries might seem insignificant at first glance, data shows that the rate of retreat has increased sharply since 1971. The rate of retreat is now 22 metres per year.”
https://www.thethirdpole.net/2016/06/10/disappearing-source-of-the-ganga/
a p garcia on Sat, 11th Jun 2016 11:55 am
Algore predicting that the Artic would be ice free by now must certainly rank #1. It is fitting since he only has taken I college level science course.
Apneaman on Sat, 11th Jun 2016 2:10 pm
a p garcia, Al Gore never submitted any research papers for peer review. Probably because he is not a scientist. Don’t you think it would be a good idea, assuming you wanted to understand the science, to listen to and read what scientists say? Who do you do to for information on heart disease – Mick Jagger?
I never watched Al Gores movie or read or listened to any interviews with him, so I am not aware of what he said, but just for fun, do you have a link to his prediction?
BTW, looking at the ongoing melt rate in the Arctic, the humans have a better than average chance of seeing their first ever ice free arctic by September. That will make for much fun, within just a few years, going forward.
‘We’ve never seen anything like this’: Arctic sea ice hit a stunning new low in May
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/06/07/weve-never-seen-anything-like-this-arctic-sea-ice-hit-a-stunning-new-low-in-may/?postshare=4191465390943341&tid=ss_tw
Then there is Greenland. Unlike the sea ice, every drop of land ice melt contributes to sea level rise.
Greenland sets melt records in 2015 consistent with ‘Arctic Amplification’
http://www.sheffield.ac.uk/news/nr/arctic-sea-global-warming-greenland-amplification-temperature-jetstream-polar-climate-earth-snow-ice-1.581490
Thomas Owens on Sat, 11th Jun 2016 2:56 pm
Do you have an advanced degree in manipulative journalism?
RJ Vasquez on Sat, 11th Jun 2016 3:23 pm
This article has a picture of a man wearing a National Park Ranger uniform shirt and hat. There is no badge on the shirt and the name tag is on the wrong side. I am a 32 year retired NPS Ranger. This photo is a fraud. How does that reflect on the article.
Apneaman on Sat, 11th Jun 2016 6:20 pm
Globalization made economic production more vulnerable to climate change
“The susceptibility of the global economic network to workers’ heat-stress has doubled in the last decade, a new study published in the journal Science Advances finds.”
“”Our study shows that since the beginning of the 21st century the structure of our economic system has changed in a way that production losses in one place can more easily cause further losses elsewhere.” The study examines the example of local heat-stress-related productivity reductions causing global effects. Across the world, production is interlinked. “What is self-evident for us today is really a phenomenon of the last two decades,” Wenz explains.
From typhoons to heat-stress on workers: local events, global effects
Typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines destroyed more than half the world’s production of coconut oil which is one of the two most commonly used vegetable fats in food production worldwide. The 2011 flood in Queensland stopped production in the fourth biggest coal exploration site on Earth for weeks, with economic repercussions well beyond Australia. While single major shocks to economic networks like these illustrate how economic activity is globally linked, the researchers focused on the effects of small daily perturbations due to extreme temperatures leading to heat-stress among workers in construction, agriculture and other economic sectors. Previous research shows that increasing temperatures decrease productivity, because, for instance, workers get exhausted more rapidly.”
http://phys.org/news/2016-06-globalization-economic-production-vulnerable-climate.html
Yet another “cost” to go with the record firefighting bills, smashed to shit infrastructure and the super expensive disaster rescue efforts. Who paying? You paying.
Apneaman on Sat, 11th Jun 2016 8:40 pm
An Ice Free Arctic???… A Reality Soon? (w/ Guest: Prof. Peter Wadhams ScD)
“Thom speaks with Professor Peter Wadhams, ScD about the possibility of an ice free Arctic in the near future, and what that means for all of us!”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JxwHUADv1QE