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Page added on February 16, 2014
Michael Klare, In the Carbon Wars, Big Oil Is Winning
We now have an answer to why global temperatures have risen less quickly in recent years than predicted in climate change models. (It’s necessary to add immediately that the issue is only the rate of that rise, since the 10 hottest years on record have all occurred since 1998.) Thanks to years of especially strong Pacific trade winds, according to a new study in the journal Nature Climate Change, much of the extra heat generated by global warming is being buried deep in ocean waters. Though no one knows for sure, the increase in the power of those winds may itself have been set off by the warming of the Indian Ocean. In other words, the full effects of the heating of the planet have been postponed, but are still building (and may also be affecting ocean ecology in unpredictable ways). As Matthew England, the lead scientist in the study, points out, “Even if the [Pacific trade] winds accelerate… sooner or later the impact of greenhouse gases will overwhelm the effect. And if the winds relax, the heat will come out quickly. As we go through the twenty-first century, we are less and less likely to have a cooler decade. Greenhouse gases will certainly win out in the end.”
Despite the slower rate of temperature rise, the effects of the global heating process are quite noticeable. Yes, if you’re living somewhere in much of the lower forty-eight, you now know the phrase “polar vortex” the same way you do “Mom” and “apple pie,” and like me, you’re shivering every morning the moment you step outside, or sometimes even in your own house. That southern shift in the vortex may itself be an artifact of changing global weather patterns caused at least in part by climate change.
In the meantime, in the far north, temperatures have been abnormally high in both Alaska and Greenland; Oslo had a Christmas to remember, and forest fires raged in the Norwegian Arctic this winter. Then, of course, there is the devastating, worsening drought in California (and elsewhere in the West) now in its third year, and by some accounts the worst in half a millennium, which is bound to drive up global food prices. There are the above-the-norm temperatures in Sochi that are creating problems keeping carefully stored snow on the ground for Olympic skiers and snowboarders. And for good measure, toss in storm-battered Great Britain’s wettest December and January in more than a century. Meanwhile, in the southern hemisphere, there’s heat to spare. There was the devastating January heat wave in Australia, while in parts of Brazil experiencing the worst drought in half-a-century there has never been a hotter month on record than that same month. If the rains don’t come relatively soon, the city of São Paulo is in danger of running out of water.
It’s clear enough that, with the effects of climate change only beginning to take hold, the planet is already in a state of weather disarray. Yet, as TomDispatch regular Michael Klare points out today, the forces arrayed against dealing with climate change couldn’t be more powerful. Given that we’ve built our global civilization on the continuing hit of energy that fossil fuels provide and given the interests arrayed around exploiting that hit, the gravitational pull of what Klare calls “Planet Carbon” is staggering.
Recently, I came across the following passage in Time of Illusion, Jonathan Schell’s 1976 classic about Nixon administration malfeasance. Schell wrote it with the nuclear issue in mind, but today it has an eerie resonance when it comes to climate change: “In the United States, unprecedented wealth and ease came to coexist with unprecedented danger, and a sumptuous feast of consumable goods was spread out in the shadow of universal death. Americans began to live as though on a luxuriously appointed death row, where one was free to enjoy every comfort but was uncertain from moment to moment when or if the death sentence might be carried out. The abundance was very much in the forefront of people’s attention, however, and the uncertainty very much in the background; and in the government as well as in the country at large the measureless questions posed by the new weapons were evaded.”
14 Comments on "Michael Klare, In the Carbon Wars, Big Oil Is Winning"
Davy, Hermann, MO on Sun, 16th Feb 2014 2:33 pm
BAU is addictive and a great drug for manipulating the masses. The consequences of AGW are weighing on people’s minds. The overwhelming problem is short term value is chosen most of the time over long term value. Ask an older person that worked hard all their life about changing in the name of mitigating AGW and the usual response is “I will be dead by then”. Well in some cases this may be true but ask older Sandy victims or farmers in California what they think now.
J-Gav on Sun, 16th Feb 2014 3:12 pm
“Time of illusion” sums it up pretty well. But then I suppose every time period secretes its own illusions, based on how society’s aspirations are modified through manipulation of its wish-list du jour.
Davy, Hermann, MO on Sun, 16th Feb 2014 3:41 pm
@Gav – “Time of illusion” sums it up pretty well. But then I suppose every time period secretes its own illusions, based on how society’s aspirations are modified through manipulation of its wish-list du jour.
short, sweet, and to the point!
rockman on Sun, 16th Feb 2014 3:45 pm
Davy – “but ask older Sandy victims or farmers in California what they think now.”. Might be difficult to get them to answer while they’re consuming as much fossil fuel as they can afford. LOL. IMHO despite all those “moral” proclamations very few people, including the not so older folks, are concerned enough about folks several generations down the road to make any significant changes in their lifestyle. So much easier to blame Big Oil, lobbyists, politicians, China, the guy driving the pickup truck, etc (and my personal favorite: (“I’m addicted to oil”) then acknowledging they are making choices based primarily on the personal benefits.
Don’t know what it’s like in your world but in Texas I think we have more than our share of “Cadillac liberals”. You know that term?
rollin on Sun, 16th Feb 2014 3:54 pm
The last paragraph reminds me of the 1001 day turkey analogy in “The Black Swan”.
Big Oil will not win the carbon war, nature will take down Big Oil and us. Sort of like a slow nuclear war.
As to the arctic vortex, it just brings me back to the temperatures of my youth with a weird periodicity added. The one we really need to be concerned about is slowing of the Gulf Stream and other ocean current changes. Devastating changes from those shifts in global heat transfer systems.
MSN fanboy on Sun, 16th Feb 2014 4:16 pm
“In the United States, unprecedented wealth and ease came to coexist with unprecedented danger, and a sumptuous feast of consumable goods was spread out in the shadow of universal death. Americans began to live as though on a luxuriously appointed death row, where one was free to enjoy every comfort but was uncertain from moment to moment when or if the death sentence might be carried out. The abundance was very much in the forefront of people’s attention, however, and the uncertainty very much in the background; and in the government as well as in the country at large the measureless questions posed by the new weapons were evaded.”
……….. were going to be FINE. GLOBAL WARMING WILL GROW THE ECONOMY. THINK ABOUT IT, HUMANITY ONLY “CHANGES” WHEN OUR BACKS AGAINST THE WALL.
J-Gav on Sun, 16th Feb 2014 4:31 pm
Rollin – Exactly! Those heat transfer systems, air and ocean currents, are telling us a rather unpleasant story these days. With all our wonderful technology (give me credit, that’s only partially sarcastic, I find some technologies fascinating – just no silver bullets), I don’t see how we could reverse that kind of planetary-level shift if it’s really underway.
Northwest Resident on Sun, 16th Feb 2014 5:25 pm
rockman — I did a Google search on “Cadillac liberal” and didn’t find much. Nonetheless, that phrase does conjure up quite an amusing image in my imagination. But wait — if you look under the hoods of all those Cadillacs, you’ll probably find that the big V8 has been removed and they are putting around with fuel efficient 4-bangers — making those Cadillac liberals pure in heart and soul.
Northwest Resident on Sun, 16th Feb 2014 5:48 pm
Davy — Speaking of farmers in California. You no doubt have already read this article – a tantalizing taste of things to come, but just in case:
California’s New ‘Dust Bowl’: “It’s Gonna Be a Slow, Painful, Agonizing Death” For Farmers
“The truth of the matter is that this is going to be a very challenging situation this year, and frankly, the trend lines are such where it’s going to be a challenging situation for some time to come,” Obama said Friday during a meeting with local leaders in Firebaugh, Calif., a rural enclave not far from Fresno.
Obama promised to make $100 million in livestock-disaster aid available within 60 days to help the state rebound from what the White House’s top science and technology adviser has called the worst dry spell in 500 years.
…
“A lot of people don’t realize the amount of money that’s been lost, the amount of jobs lost. And we can’t recapture that,” Joel Allen, the owner of the Joel Allen Ranch in Firebaugh, told NBC News.
“It’s horrible,” Allen added. “People are standing in food lines and people are coming by my office every day looking for work.”
Allen — whose family has been in farming for three generations — and his 20-man crew are out of work.
He said: “We’re to the point where we’re scratching our head. What are we gonna do next?”
At the local grocery store, fruit prices are up — but sales are down. The market was forced to lay off three employees — and many more throughout the town are packing their bags and leaving town.
McDonald said farming communities like Firebaugh run the risk of becoming desolate ghost towns as local governments and businesses collapse.
“It’s going to be a slow, painful process — but it could happen,” McDonald said. “It’s not going to be one big tsunami where you’re gonna having something get wiped out in one big wave. It’s gonna be a slow, painful, agonizing death.”
…
The problem is not just in California. Federal agriculture officials in January designated parts of 11 states as disaster areas, citing the economic strain that the lack of rain is putting on farmers. Those states are Arkansas, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Kansas, New Mexico, Nevada, Oklahoma, Texas and Utah.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-15/californias-new-dust-bowl-its-gonna-be-slow-painful-agonizing-death-farmers
mike on Sun, 16th Feb 2014 6:27 pm
Cadillac liberals – Rockman
Like it. In UK they called “Champagne Socialists”
DC on Sun, 16th Feb 2014 8:23 pm
I am sure you have a couple of people in that ‘texas’ place that would fit that description, but they are vastly outnumbered by ‘Cadillac Conservatives’. Who of course, if one the english languages many absurdities, are not in the least interested in ‘conserving’ anything at all. So I wouldn’t worry too much about some a few token texan ‘liberals’ grandstanding, and worry a lot more about the Cadillac Cons and there War and Oil and infinite consumption agenda. They are the ones doing all the damage-not a few quasi-sincere grandstanders.
Bandits on Sun, 16th Feb 2014 8:45 pm
Hey Rockman, when oil was first discovered and marketed there was about a billion people on Earth and no one was addicted. So I guess it’s okay for you to be glib when you are part of the industry that legally pushes the substance we are all addicted to, including the pushers themselves.
Everyone is BORN into the “addiction” now, we don’t even know we are addicted. There is no way or even maybe a hard way to get off the stuff. We are simply left with a need to be held against our will in order to be cured. So we require legislation, we need to legislate against ourselves and legislation will hurt the pushers as well as the addicts.
But it’s all we have left and of course it’s not going to happen, especially with so many apologists for the oil industry (all of the FF industry really) clamouring for their say.
Davy, Hermann, MO on Sun, 16th Feb 2014 9:53 pm
@Rockman – Cadillac liberals
@Mike – “Champagne Socialists”
@Davey – Subaru environmentalist
rollin on Sun, 16th Feb 2014 10:35 pm
J-Gav said Rollin – Exactly! Those heat transfer systems, air and ocean currents, are telling us a rather unpleasant story these days. With all our wonderful technology (give me credit, that’s only partially sarcastic, I find some technologies fascinating – just no silver bullets), I don’t see how we could reverse that kind of planetary-level shift if it’s really underway.
There may be no way to restart the Gulf Stream or other failed thermal transfer ocean currents. However, I am designing some nice warm winter clothing for the British Isles. Felt lined wellies will go over big and the insulated kilt should be a big seller up north. I would like to corner the snow shovel market there also. Insulated tea pots and cups may at least keep the tradition alive.
Be prepared for another invasion of the US by the British. Not war mind you, migration to the southern US. Should make an interesting dialect shift.