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Page added on October 18, 2012
Is the world heading towards Doomsday?
There is no secret in the fact that the population of our world is growing. From 3 billion in 1960, it now stands at just over 7 billion and by the middle of the century, if you accept the worst-case scenario, it could be nearly 11 billion.
Putting aside for a minute the problem of feeding all these extra people, there will also be the question of how they will cope in an ever-reducing amount of living space.
Back in the 1960s an American specialist in animal behaviour, John B Calhoun, conducted a series of experiments using mice. He introduced four pairs of mice into what was known as a Utopian universe. This was actually a 9-foot square metal pen with sides 4-foot 6-inches high. There was plenty of food, water, nesting boxes and nesting material and no predators. There was, in fact everything that a mouse could wish for.
From the original eight mice the population doubled every 55 days. By day 315 the number had reached 620, but at this point the rot began to set in. The scientists noted that the normal patterns of social behaviour were gradually beginning to break down.
Young mice were getting wounded and expelled from their nests before weaning was complete; dominant males were no longer able to maintain their territory and their females; females were becoming aggressive; and otherwise passive, non-dominant males increasingly began to attack each other.
The last surviving birth was on day 600 and the social breakdown continued as the colony drifted towards extinction. By now the females had ceased to reproduce and the males had become completely withdrawn, never engaging in courtship or fighting, but simply spending their time eating, drinking, sleeping, or grooming themselves.
In this Doomsday Scenario Calhoun saw the fate of his mouse population as a metaphor for the potential fate of the world’s human population.
Fortunately this gloomy prediction is by no means a foregone conclusion. To begin with, population growth is showing signs of slowing down as the general standard of living throughout the world is slowly rising and this trend is highest in the developing world. Rather than tipping towards a population of 11 billion by 2050, a recent forecast puts the number closer to 9 billion.
However, it is clear that by the middle of this century the world will have a great many more mouths to feed and stomachs to fill. Most of these additional people will probably inhabit existing urban areas. These will simply get bigger and this will impose further stress on the environment in providing power, energy and food. Urbanisation will become the primary driver of deforestation.
Another factor that is not always taken into account is that as people become more prosperous, they eat more. If the body mass index (BMI) of the world’s population were to increase to be on a par with the population of the United States, this would be equivalent to having to feed an additional 500 million people.
Yet another sign of increased prosperity is a rise in meat consumption. Production would need to double if those in the developing world were to eat as much as those of the developed world.
To take China as an example: in 1978 meat consumption in China was 8 million tons; but by 2010 it had increased to 71 million tons, which is around 11 lb per person per year. If personal meat consumption in China were to reach consumption levels of the US, China would need 75% of current world beef production and 80% of broiler chickens.
By 2050, not only will it be necessary to feed a couple of billion additional people, but most of them will expect better food than they are currently getting.
As urban settlements get bigger, the amount of land available for growing food will get smaller, so the only answer is to increase productivity of existing land. Cattle, for instance, take up a great deal of space and additional land is needed for the growing of fodder crops. Cattle are also a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions. A possible answer all round might be to cut the number of cattle and wean people off meat. Of course, this might take some persuading.
Technology has moved into the world agricultural industry. This of course is nothing new since from the very earliest times farmers have selected and developed particular seeds for particular soils.
Crop improvement and crop breeding has continued in recent years with new strains being developed that are resistant to herbicides and pests. These have simplified production, reduced costs and decreased the amount of pesticide. This in turn has reduced the number of times a farmer needs to spray his fields, which then cuts the amount of greenhouse gas emission.
Approximately 10% of world arable area now produces crops that come from what is known as genetically modified seed. Most of this is maize (corn), Soya, cotton and oilseed rape. It has been estimated that between 1996 and 2010, the use of these crops has meant that 400 million kg of pesticide has not been needed. In 2012 this lack of needing to spray is estimated to have reduced global CO2emissions by 6%.
The rise in profitability for farmers has been significant and the benefits seem to have been greatest in the developing countries.
Alone in the world Europe stands out as being opposed to the use of these new technologies in agriculture. There are two very distinct and opposing beliefs with respect to the use of genetically modified seed. Passionate views come from both sides, but the bottom line is that in 38 years time, if estimates are to be believed, an additional 2 billion people will need feeding.
Somehow this must be achieved if we are to avoid a doomsday scenario.
11 Comments on "Is the world heading towards Doomsday?"
Arthur on Thu, 18th Oct 2012 6:22 pm
Europe is the only area where population growth is zero since 1950 and will see negative growth in the coming decades because of individualism, hedonism, feminism, breakdown of family, etc.
China comes close, because of draconian birth control measures.
The rest of the world f**** around like there is no tomorrow. Let them, if they need to, but also let them take responsibility for their own behavior. The West (for as long as it will exist) should abandon it’s patronising ‘development aid’ towards the third world, which only increases it’s population growth, and instead should relate aid (if any) to the measure of success in the reduction of birth rates. And of course halt any mass immigration, as this implies suicide as a society. We are not going to sacrifice the future of our children just because other societies do not know when to keep their pants on, even if the ADL/SPLC have different opinions. The hell with them. The only thing we in the West can do is massively reduce our own ecological footprint and develop renewable technologies and make them available for free to others. But that’s it. Without the West, the world would be a dark place, no pun intended. In the worst case scenarios we could consider voluntary recolonization of failed societies. Colonialism on demand so to speak.
dsula on Thu, 18th Oct 2012 8:52 pm
When does the west learn not to import every 3rd world cave dweller they can find?
Kenz300 on Thu, 18th Oct 2012 8:59 pm
Every country that does not develop a plan to balance its population with its resources will export their people and their problems.
Newfie on Thu, 18th Oct 2012 9:07 pm
Never ending growth is a fairy tale that everyone believes in.
DC on Thu, 18th Oct 2012 9:40 pm
The only (advanced) country I know of that refuses to play the 3rd world economic migrant game, is ….
Japan.
Japan has a stable population, AND has shown little interest in mass immigration from the 3rd world. Yet economic doomsday has not occurred, and the country is socially and politically stable. Europe yes, had also reached a stable population, but the corporations didn’t like that one bit. So they opened the floodgates and the Europe’s population exploded, with 3rd world migrants, just like the US, Canada, Australia, what have you. The UK and France are by far the worst offenders, but Germany hasn’t exactly been doing a good job either. Better start sending some of those ‘guest workers’ back home eh?
Province I live in has more than doubled its population in my lifeime, and will likely do so again before my time is up. BUT while thats been going on, the resource base has been steadily eroding too. There wont be trees to cut, or gas to extract to keep 8-10 million people employed. In fact, the resource extraction part of economy has been slowing for years. So what are the extra 4-5 million going to do once they all get here? Flip houses I guess, or build more big boxes…who knows…
Arthur on Thu, 18th Oct 2012 9:44 pm
“Every country that does not develop a plan to balance its population with its resources will export their people and their problems.”
Expect the Mediterrainian and Rio Grande to become the new Berlin Wall. The third world surely likes to export their problems but the western population is not interested in importing problems. And Europe is far more mobilized to oppose being overrun than Americans and their fatal “Nation of immigrants” ideology. Most European countries have strong right wing parties, unlike the US, where both parties are in practice pro-immigration, carrying out the dominant zionist NWO agenda of destroying nations and local identities and borders, to start with the US. This agenda is in place since the murder of JFK, giving LBJ the opportunity to introduce the fatal immigration act of 1965, which marked the end of the US as a European nation.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_and_Nationality_Act_of_1965
The murder of JFK was carried out by an Israeli assassination team, lead by Yitzak Rabin.
kervennic on Thu, 18th Oct 2012 10:27 pm
I think you do not, all of you, understand the dynamic of capitalism.
We live in a world of raw competition,even in the west, and even in europe.
The dynamic of capitalism is sustained by immigration, the reserve army as Marx called it then, an army of worker that can put downward pressure on salary and sustain the growth
Just look at the US…
What would happen if immigration would be stopped ? The economy would be stalled because a mass of job that no local would do, like work in polluting factories, assembly chains, chemical recycling, night shift jobs … would recquire a very high cost to attract western people with full rights and a house (even in japan decomissioning of fukushima was performed by second zone citizens, kind of local gipsies). Competitivity would falter (you cannot delocalize all to china).
This is why governement, even when they have an official anti immigration policy, in practice, always open the gate. People can complain about imigration but they complain even more if the price of electricity or garbage recycling shoots up.
The conclusion is very simple: to stop the immigration, there is one and only way: crash western economies that are draining the world for resources and impose a model that does not fit third world countries, no more than it fits us.
If there is no growth here, if we come back to the land, there will be no immigration. Immigrants come to the west because the west is a giant factory draining oil to produce industrial goods.
If this flow stops, most people will stay home.
Arthur on Thu, 18th Oct 2012 10:39 pm
Japan and Korea are examples of societies that do not need immigration to be succesful. The immigration wave was the result of holocaust guilt, christian do-gooder motivations, corporate lobby, and most important, the relentless push for immigration by the zionist lobby. This lobby in the US had pushed for open borders for almost a century.
http://www.kevinmacdonald.net/Immigration.pdf
kervennic on Thu, 18th Oct 2012 11:09 pm
Try to think about feeding yourself without oil and supermarkets before trying to feed others that will do very well without your unexperience.
BillT on Fri, 19th Oct 2012 1:09 am
Kervennic, You are seeing what is happening, but may not understand why.
As far as most countries in the West, immigration is welcomed by the financial powers because they lower wages. THAT is the goal, not YOUR welfare. Leveling the incomes and, therefore, the lifestyles of all 7 billion people so that labor is kept weak and powerless. That way, there is no job security or enough income to be independent of the government.
And there will never be 9-11 billion people. The 1% will make sure of that. They know that the resources they need to live are being gobbled up by the other 99% and they are working to remedy that situation. Ah, the games people play…
Arthur on Fri, 19th Oct 2012 3:16 am
Kervennic, your country France had the most immigration of all Europen nations, but not the strongest resulting economy. Instead you have the strongest national party, which very well may breakthrough in the next election. In France tnere are several islamic no go areas. Integration only exists in the media, not in the streets. For me it is an open question where the real clashes will start, US, UK, France, Holland or Belgium. The events in the UK last year were pretty grim, like the uprisings in France before. It’s one big countdown to Yugoslavia/Syria/Iraq at home.