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Page added on March 3, 2016
Iraq’s Mosul Dam Could Burst At Any Time
A tragedy is just waiting to happen in one of the largest cities in the Middle East, engineers warn. The Iraqis who built the dam structure for the Mosul dam warn that the structure is “increasingly precarious” and threatens to kill 1 million people. They also said the government’s answer has been ridiculous.
Photo by Rehman Abubakr.
The Mosul Dam is the largest dam in Iraq, providing electricity for the 1.7 million residents of Mosul. However, it has a long record of instability. Built in an unstable geological setting, the earthen embankment dam is located on top of gypsum, a soft mineral which dissolves in contact with water – a recipe for disaster. Leaks began right after the dam was built in 1986, with 24 machines continuously pumping grout into the dam base. More than than 50,000 tonnes of material have been injected, but did little to stabilize the structure. A September 2006 report by the United States Army Corps of Engineers noted, “In terms of internal erosion potential of the foundation, Mosul Dam is the most dangerous dam in the world.”
Now, the engineers responsible for building the structure in the first place warn that the situation is reaching critical levels, after winter snows melted and more water flowed into the reservoir, raising pressure. After the city was more or less under the control of the Islamic State, the injection machinery wasn’t operated anymore and the maintenance crew was dissolved. The government was slow in reacting, and while negotiations with an Italian construction firm for carrying out urgent repairs is being discussed, no agreement has been reached.
Photo by U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.
Nasrat Adamo, the dam’s former chief engineer who spent most of his professional career patching the fundamental flaws of the dam said that the situation has been disastrous after ISIS.
“We used to have 300 people working 24 hours in three shifts but very few of these workers have come back. There are perhaps 30 people there now,” Adamo said in a telephone interview with the Guardian. “The machines for grouting have been looted. There is no cement supply. They can do nothing. It is going from bad to worse, and it is urgent. All we can do is hold our hearts.”
Nadhir al-Ansari, another Iraqi engineer from when the dam was built, voiced concerns about rising water levels.
“The fact that the bottom outlets are jammed is the thing that really worries us,” said Ansari, now an engineering professor at the Luleå University of Technology in Sweden. “In April and May, there will be a lot more snow melting and it will bring plenty of water into the reservoir. The water level is now 308 metres but it will go up to over 330 metres. And the dam is not as before. The caverns underneath have increased. I don’t think the dam will withstand that pressure.
He also warned that if the dam actually collapses, the consequences will be incalculable. There’s no backup plan, no evacuation plan, and officials don’t seem interested or able to deal with this problem.
“If the dam fails, the water will arrive in Mosul in four hours. It will arrive in Baghdad in 45 hours. Some people say there could be half a million people killed, some say a million. I imagine it will be more in the absence of a good evacuation plan.”
The US embassy in Baghdad has already warned American citizens to leave the city. We don’t know when the dam will collapse, but this scenario is becoming more and more likely.
13 Comments on "Iraq’s Mosul Dam Could Burst At Any Time"
eugene on Thu, 3rd Mar 2016 10:44 am
Sounds like the US.
Davy on Thu, 3rd Mar 2016 11:35 am
This will be a real time view of what happens to the global system as decay accelerates. Expect more of this across the global world. This dam is likely beyond repair because maintenance cannot ever be stopped with such geologic issues. The best that can be done is some kind of decommissioning effort, temporary stop gap maintenance with some kind evacuation process. Start dumping water to lower the catostrophic dangers. IOW controlled failure. The reality is you can’t very easily evacuate so many large city that line the path of this deluge. That is a normal world scenario. In the surreal world of Syria and Iraq slow motion tragedy is the likely scenario. If this dam failure occurs Iraq will likely not recover. More refugees for Europe. Less oil for the world. One step closer to global failure. One step at a time until a really big one. Then who knows
Go Speed Racer on Thu, 3rd Mar 2016 12:15 pm
Well I’ll be dammed. Plug in the popcorn popper. Dam failures are cool.
http://www.usbr.gov/pn/about/Teton.html
penury on Thu, 3rd Mar 2016 12:41 pm
Let me see. The Mosul Dam has been in danger of immediate failure for at least the last 7 years. Billions have been spent creating a war zone in Iraq. But strangely although the U.S. can provide billions for destruction it seems like mainteinance of infra-structure is beyond our capabilities or interest,.
shortonoil on Thu, 3rd Mar 2016 2:09 pm
“Expect more of this across the global world.”
I am afraid you are correct. and the world is in such a state of complete denial, and narcissistic fulfillment of self interest that little will be done to stop the decay. If anyone believes that this is primarily an American problem they have detached themselves from reality. It is occurring in every state, every province and every nation around the world. Like lemmings, humanity appears to have prepared itself for the final plunge. This time a million, then 10, maybe a 100; and no one puts forth the slightest effort to stop the slaughter.
Practicalmaina on Thu, 3rd Mar 2016 2:52 pm
The Iraq government is probably not overly concerned, usually the people only know that their home is going to be obliterated for a few seconds before the ordinance hits. They have an hour and more before a damn break tidal wave.
“When the levee breaks, momma youve got to mooove”
dubya on Thu, 3rd Mar 2016 5:34 pm
I have always been impressed how governments are proud to make big announcements about opening some new infrastructure; but when the time comes for maintenance the cupboard is bare.
Potholes. Minneapolis bridge. Nuclear reactors. Schools. Atomic weapons. Search & rescue aircraft. And on it goes.
Go Speed Racer on Thu, 3rd Mar 2016 6:55 pm
A boat owner told me you should assume up to 20% of the boat purchase cost must be shelled out every year, in the form of repairs, overhauls, moorage, taxes, fuel, etc. So your $500K boat could sing you an extra $100K annually.
Perhaps that thought echoes into national infrastructure. Do they really account for the cost of ongoing maintenance, after its built and bought? Probably not.
theedrich on Thu, 3rd Mar 2016 7:07 pm
Another advance orchestrated by our megalomaniacal establishment determined to make the Allahland into a democratic utopia. Mission nearly accomplished.
joe on Fri, 4th Mar 2016 2:33 am
Looks like isis wants it to fail. Then in the chaos they can expand. A few months left to hang on then nobody will want Mosul as a destroyed community. This will spark a new phase in the war that PNAC and the zionists started to secure Israels future.
GregT on Fri, 4th Mar 2016 3:29 am
“Another advance orchestrated by the white megalomaniacal establishment pretending to be determined to make the Allahland into a democratic utopia.”
There, fixed it for you theedrich.
Dredd on Fri, 4th Mar 2016 11:04 am
What a great metaphor.
joe on Mon, 7th Mar 2016 3:43 am
Greece recently stopped weapons heading for lebanon.
http://www.almanar.com.lb/english/adetails.php?fromval=1&cid=&frid=&eid=258608
Spain stopped uniforms
http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2016/03/04/469158162/thousands-of-isis-bound-uniforms-seized-spanish-police-say
Europeans dont want to see the war spreading. The neocons must think Israel will survive ww3.
The dam failure would provide the perfect cover story and pretext for the destruction of Baghdad and the escalation of the war to a genocide and securing the oil from the shia.