India population will overtake China by 2025

Asia is set to become the most populous region in the world by 2025 – and not only this, but India is also on track to overtake China to become the most populous country in the world. The United States will remain the third largest nation, followed by Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nigeria. Analysts predict the demographic shift will lead to a more confident India which will want to exert its growing influence.

Presenter: Claudette Werden
Speakers: Professor Dean Forbes, Flinders University, Melbourne; Ravi Ratnayake, director, trade and investment division, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific

WERDEN: The US Census Bureau predicts India’s population in 2025 will be just under 1.4 billion people. It’ll be the first time that India’s population growth will surpass that of China. China faces a shrinking labour force and an ageing population due mainly to Beijing’s one child policy. India on the other hand is experiencing a surge in its workforce with an estimated one million people forecast to enter the labour market every month for the next twenty years. Population analyst Professor Dean Forbes says while there may be a direct relationship between economic success and population growth, that link can also be a double edged sword.

FORBES: A lot of the success of China, for instance, is because it’s had large numbers of people, willing to work in industries at very low wages, however, that situation won’t last for ever. A growing middle class is seeking much more from life than just low wages in industrial enterprises. India has also benefited, though, in a different way from having a large poor rural population, in that it’s allowed the middle class and the wealthy in the cities to generate new businesses which are not so much industrial but more services that have enabled India to start to pick up its growth rate over the last few years.

WERDEN: But he says both countries have serious population related challenges that need to be addressed.

FORBES: In China, its population is ageing and that means it will need to work hard to continue to sustain the economic growth it’s had. India faces a different situation, there are serious problems in India in terms of the unequal distribution of wealth.

WERDEN: Ravi Ratnayake is the director of the trade and investment division of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, which seeks to promote economic and social development in the Asia Pacific region. He says population growth can also hinder a country’s economic progress.

RATNAYAKE: If you take countries like Bangladesh, the population is increasing but at the same time poverty is very high, so there are many other social problems arising form high or rapid population growth but if population is used as a source of growth through human capital formation and other ways, it can be a source of growth.

WERDEN: Some pundits predict the demographic shift will lead to a change in the dynamic between the two Asian giants, with a more confident India, increasingly exerting its influence in the region. But Mr Ratnayake says that does not have to be at the expense of China.

RATNAYAKE: I would like to see two countries working together, not substituting basically two sources of growth basically that will be good for the region.

WERDEN: The latest US Census Bureau forecast also shows five of the top ten populous nations are Asian. It highlights the point that the balance of world power – be it economic, political or even cultural – is shifting more to the Asian region. Dr Forbes says that makes sense.

FORBES: Given that the Asian region does contain such a large proportion of the world’s population, yes, it is good that any increase in wealth across Asia means much of humanity benefits.

WERDEN: The world population rankings for 2025 include 227 countries. The Pacific nations of Tuvalu, Cook Islands and Nauru are among the bottom ten countries which have the smallest population. Australia is ranked 56th. There are no European countries in the top ten, suggesting that growth in the developed world has slowed down. However, two Africa nations, Nigeria and Ethiopia, are ranked 8th and 9th. While there is evidence of significant population growth in Africa, analysts are concerned there is no significant economic development to go with it. They say the ongoing political instability in some African countries is making economic growth very difficult – even with the continent’s rich resources.

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