Peak Oil is You
Donate Bitcoins ;-) or Paypal :-)
Page added on March 6, 2013
Humanity is not a plague on earth
The world population is not exploding out of control. In fact, it is slowing down.
In January, David Attenborough, an internationally renowned host of nature documentaries, revealed how disconnected he is from nature. Mankind, he recently warned, is a “plague on the earth.” He said, “Either we limit our population growth or the natural world will do it for us.” Nobody told him that world population growth is already slowing in nearly every part of the world. In many countries, demographers worry more about a shrinking population than an exploding one.
Americans haven’t gotten the memo, either. A Center for Biological Diversity poll released last week reports that a majority of Americans worry about population growth sparking global warming, killing off endangered species or causing other environmental mayhem. And, they say, we have a “moral responsibility” to do something about it.
Nevertheless, the notion that humanity is a blight upon the planet is a long discredited idea, long nurtured by a vocal cadre of fearful prophets.
Fearful history
Thomas Malthus predicted more than 200 years ago that world population growth would outpace food production, triggering mass starvations and disease. In 1977, Paul and Anne Ehrlich, along with Obama administration “science czar” John Holdren, authored a textbook that discussed population control, including the unsavory possibility of compulsory abortions. As recently as 2011, Anne Ehrlich compared humans to cancer cells.
Yet, science says otherwise. Indeed, what Attenborough, the Ehrlichs and Holdren all have in common is an ignorance of demographic trends. Anyone who believes that humans will overrun the earth like ants at a picnic is ignoring the data.
Wealth plays role
According to the World Bank, the world’s fertility rate is 2.45, slightly above the replacement rate of 2.1. Some demographers believe that by 2020, global fertility will drop below the replacement rate for the first time in history. Why? Because the world is getting richer.
As people become wealthier, they have fewer kids. When times are good, instead of reproducing exponentially (like rabbits), people prefer to spend resources nurturing fewer children, for instance by investing in education and saving money for the future. This trend toward smaller families has been observed throughout the developed world, from the United States to Europe to Asia.
The poorest parts of the world, most notably sub-Saharan Africa, still have sky-high fertility rates, but they are declining. The solution is just what it has been elsewhere: more education, easier access to contraception and economic growth. Catastrophe avoided.
Consequently, no serious demographer believes that human population growth resembles cancer or the plague. On the contrary, the United Nations projects a global population of 9.3 billion by 2050 and 10.1 billion by 2100. In other words, it will take about 40 years to add 2 billion people, but 50 years to add 1 billion after that. After world population peaks, it is quite possible that it will stop growing altogether and might even decline.
Despite all indications to the contrary, global population cataclysm isn’t at hand and never will be unless the well-established and widely researched trends reverse themselves. That’s not likely.
13 Comments on "Humanity is not a plague on earth"
dsula on Wed, 6th Mar 2013 11:59 am
>>>>> Anyone who believes that humans will overrun the earth like ants at a picnic is ignoring the data
Hahaha. Humans already have overrun the planet like ants. And they sweep it clean in doing so.
I just read that the average muzzi in palestine has 10 babies. Go figure! Go replacement rate!
Satori on Wed, 6th Mar 2013 12:31 pm
personally speaking
I want more and more and more people in my community
the schools aren’t yet crowded enough
the roads not yet clogged enough
and we haven’t quite pumped our aquifer dry yet
there’s stil a couple hundred gallons left to pump or contaminate
whichever comees first
what a brain dead,piece of useless crap article
rollin on Wed, 6th Mar 2013 12:32 pm
Human: An animal that can gimmick it’s way past nature’s normal checks and balances and realizes too late that this has horrible consequences, so enters a stage of denial.
mike on Wed, 6th Mar 2013 1:43 pm
What this article quite hilariously fails to realise is that population growth rate IS dropping off because of nature, and it’s only going to get “worse”. Anyone who calls Attenborough disconnected from nature shouldn’t be anywhere near a pen or a keyboard.
Kenz300 on Wed, 6th Mar 2013 1:52 pm
The world add 80 million more people to feed, clothe, house, and provide energy for every year.
Around the world we have a food crisis, a water crisis, a declining fish stocks crisis, a financial crisis, a climate change crisis, a jobs crisis and an OVER POPULATION crisis.
Every problem is made harder to solve with the worlds ever growing population and only leads to more poverty, suffering and despair.
Access to family planning services needs to be available to all that want it.
If you can not provide for yourself you can not provide for a child.
keith on Wed, 6th Mar 2013 1:53 pm
We are a plague on nature. Just like locust on a field of corn. The difference is we hold our selves in such high esteem. Most of us are chattering monkeys, with an exception for a few whose shoulders we stand on.
GregT on Wed, 6th Mar 2013 2:22 pm
Human beings are a parasite. We will continue to suck the lifeblood from the earth until it can no longer support us.
DC on Wed, 6th Mar 2013 3:19 pm
USA-Today, one step above, or below (YMMV), than the National Enquirer
SOS on Wed, 6th Mar 2013 5:28 pm
LOL. Propaganda is powerful and negative emotions are hard to control. Good, factual news, as we have in this article is bad news for doom and gloomers. What is at the bottom of the mass denial in this group, is personal anger and resentment so high it overpowers the logical thinking process or is it a revenge motive against those that are doing fine, or is it something else. Its clear climate change is a boondoglle politicl ploy as is peak oil. What gives?
SOS on Wed, 6th Mar 2013 5:31 pm
And what about self-loathing? Those that agree humanity is a plague on the earth must hate everyone but themselves. Some Im sure admit to being part of the plague, some think they are ok but the others are the plague and some see it for what its worth: strong language expressed by people motivated by hate.
Charlie Bucket on Wed, 6th Mar 2013 5:56 pm
This article is so absurd that I thought I was reading the Onion! But it sure make “head-in-the-sand” a-holes like SOS feel better. What ever helps you sleep at night, SOS, you f$%king numbskull!
mike on Wed, 6th Mar 2013 8:05 pm
SOS, you need to go back to Troll school and study harder lol.
GregT on Wed, 6th Mar 2013 11:18 pm
SOS,
You are truly delusional.