Sometimes, my colleagues make me think of the old joke, “I wouldn’t want to belong to a club that accepts people like me as members.” That happened to me once more when I read an interview to Smithsonian paleontologist Doug Erwin that was published with the title “We are NOT in the sixth mass extinction”, (“The Atlantic,” June 13, 2017). Here, Erwin states that the idea that we are in the sixth extinction is just “junk science”.To date, the majority of extinction studies have been biased towards terrestrial species and charismatic megafauna and we know relatively little about changes in the abundance and ranges of the shelly marine invertebrates that would provide a direct link to mass extinctions in the fossil record.
From custodians of deep time, we need quantitative assessments of the fossil record of the present and future earth in order to accurately size up current biotic changes with the same filter through which we see the past.
Although extinctions are rare, the ecological ghosts of oceans past already swim in emptied seas.
You see the point? So far, we have focussed on the extinction of “charismatic” species, from the past one of mammoths, giant sloths, and the like to the ongoing ones of Elephants, tigers, cheetahs, and others. However, a true mass extinction sees the disappearance, or at least the the near disappearance of common species such as marine invertebrates. But that doesn’t appear to be happening, yet.
There follows that, if someone in a remote future were to examine the fossil record for our times, he/she/it wouldn’t see, not yet at least, the same kind of disastrous “Seneca Collapse” of the most common species that we see for the “big five” mass extinctions. Once a true “End-Permian-like” extinction were to start, it would be so rapid and destructive that nobody would be alive, discussing it.
That’s it, folks: the title “We are NOT in the sixth mass extinction” simply means “we are not YET in the sixth mass extinction“, but there are plenty of ongoing extinctions that prefigurate a true mass extinction (“emptied seas”) for a non-remote future. That’s because we know that most of the past mass extinctions (and perhaps all of them) were caused by the same phenomenon that’s ongoing nowadays: the release of large amounts of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
Said in other words, imagine you are falling from the 10th floor. You are not yet splattered on the sidewalk and, if you really want to be precise, you shouldn’t say that you are in the same condition of other people who fell from the same window in the past. Who knows? You might fall on something soft, or maybe learn how to fly while en route. Precision is precision, right?
So, the position taken by Dr. Erwin is scientifically correct, although it doesn’t change what we know about the ongoing extinctions (and, as a personal opinion, I normally avoid branding the work of my colleagues as “junk science,” even though I may not agree with them). We didn’t go through a mass extinction, yet, because it is just beginning. The problem is that the meaning of the article in The Atlantic, and in particular its title, will NOT be generally understood. On the contrary, it will give plenty of ammunition to the throngs of those who claim that “CO2 is plant food,” “the Earth is getting greener,” “global warming is good for people”; and the like. It is already happening. As usual, when scientists say something that some people judge unpalatable, they are cheaters and liars. When a scientist says the opposite, he is suddenly defined as reliable.
I don’t think Erwin is to be faulted in particular for this disaster in scientific communication. It happens all the time and especially when you stumble on journalists who tend to sensationalize what you tell them. Unfortunately, as scientists, we haven’t yet learned how to communicate science to the public.
onlooker on Sat, 22nd Jul 2017 2:51 pm
Or about the public has not learned science well enough. As for the article the operative word is YET. As in we haven’t caused a full blown mass extinction yet or become ourselves extinct yet. But unless you live on some other planet how can you not notice the degradation of this planet that we are causing NOW
Apneaman on Sat, 22nd Jul 2017 3:43 pm
“we haven’t yet learned how to communicate science to the public.”
You can’t. Can’t be done to people who think Duck Dynasty is the height of cultural entertainment and spend hours a day arguing over celebrity/Trump Tweets, think Alex Jones is real and who do not understand how statistics work let alone the scientific method.
The comments in the Atlantic article are opinion, not a peer reviewed study with data. If the man wants to disprove something, then he needs to do the labour and compile data and submit it to a referred journal for peer review – that’s how it works and he know it. Calling it ‘junk science’ is just an ad hom. Falsifying it is possible, but takes work. Perhaps he hasn’t done that because he can’t? You can call anything ‘junk science’ all day long. Prove it.
There are different arguments as to when this current mass extinction started. I’m in the camp that thinks it began shortly after the humans cognitive abilities are thought to have changed, leaped, to what they are today. Roughly about 75,000 – 100,00 years ago. Some think it was mutation and some think it was gradual and did not show up in the archeological record because the human number were to small. Either way that’s when the Cancer started.
Humans responsible for demise of gigantic ancient mammals
Early humans were the dominant cause of the extinction of a variety of species of giant beasts, new research has revealed.
“Known collectively as megafauna, most of the largest mammals ever to roam the earth were wiped out over the last 80,000 years, and were all extinct by 10,000 years ago.”
http://www.exeter.ac.uk/news/featurednews/title_465673_en.html
After they killed off all their main food source the only way for their increased population to survive was to take up agriculture. Date of the end of the mega fauna extinction is a near perfect match with the beginning of agriculture.
The humans who migrated south out of Africa and ended up in Austerlia did the same thing. Of course they did, it’s what we do.
Humans, not climate change, wiped out Australian megafauna
https://phys.org/news/2017-01-humans-climate-australian-megafauna.html
In the Americas there was some help from climate change, but it was still mostly humans. The timing of mega fauna matches up with human migration wherever they go. Same for extincting other smaller species as well – New Zealand, the Do do, passenger pigeon, Tasmanian Tiger, almost the Buffalo too (wasn’t for lack of trying) and on and on and on. Now it’s global and Mass with the wonders of technology and industrialization and mega human population – more of us = less of them. An insatiable mindless Cancer infecting and consuming everything in it’s path.
Apneaman on Sat, 22nd Jul 2017 4:10 pm
New Zealand storm: states of emergency declared as flooding hits South Island
State of emergency declared in three regions, road access to Dunedin city blocked and flood warning signs run out after heavy rain and landslides
“The southern city of 120,000 people was cut off by road after major landslips blocked access. Small coastal communities on the Otago Penninsula are also cut off. ”
“In Christchurch and Dunedin several wastewater pumping stations were unable to keep up with the deluge and contaminated wastewater flowed onto city streets.”
“In the last 24 hours the Metservice recorded more than 220mm of rain on the hills north of Dunedin, 162mm in Oamaru and 104mm in Ashburton.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jul/22/new-zealand-calls-in-the-army-after-ferocious-storm-hits-south-island
Apneaman on Sat, 22nd Jul 2017 4:12 pm
African Wild Dogs Can’t Take The Heat, Face Extinction From Climate Change
http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/science-sushi/2017/07/20/african-wild-dogs-face-extinction-climate-change/
Anonymouse on Sat, 22nd Jul 2017 4:13 pm
‘Science’, such as it is, it should be pointed out, is almost never communicated by scientists directly. In almost all instances, ‘science’ is reported by something we generally refer to as ‘science reporters’. Considering how modern media, or the MSM for shorthand, routinely lies, distorts and misrepresents almost everything they talk cover, neither we, or Prof. Bardi, should be surprised they do anything less when it comes to topics of science.
Since we cannot rely of the so-called ‘new’s to present any of the other topics they choose to cover in an relatively honest and transparent manner, whether its politics, war, economics etc, you just know, or should know, journalists are not going to treat science related stories any differently. Worse, if that were possible, given the complexity involved.
And they dont. Just look at the avalanche of stories and claims made about fusion power, electric cars, or how medicine is perpetually on the brink of some transformational breakthrough of one kind or another, that never seems to quite materialize. OR if you to go back further yet, we can talk about the old canards; flying cars, vacations on the moon, robot-maids, jet-packs , too-cheap-to-meter etc. ‘Science’, or more accurately ‘science writers’, were pretty sure those were a slam dunk as well, those were all just around the corner as well.
The larger lesson we should have learned by now is, there is something basically wrong with the entire edifice we call ‘news’ or ‘reporting’.
Prof. Bardi himself ends with the thought;
“Unfortunately, as scientists, we haven’t yet learned how to communicate science to the public.”
You would think, if anyone would know to communicate ideas effectively (generally speaking), it would be scientists. Instead, the ones that learned how to communicate effectively, are zionist propagandists, uS for-profit ‘news’ corporations, and uS gov propagandist departments, and ecocidal uS corporate PR experts. And what have those guys used that ability for? Just tune into CNN, faux news, or any free-world order ‘news’, turn off your brain, and be regaled with tales of how Russia invaded Ukraine, Syria is in the throes of a ‘Civil War’, or how red meat is bad for you one week, good the next. When it comes to mass-media mis-characterizing stories, events and people, science shouldn’t feel too bad about it, or as if its unique to science, its not.
Consider it a feature of modern media, not a bug.
Davy on Sat, 22nd Jul 2017 4:22 pm
I agree with this article. Humans sensationalize and have issues with time frames. That said we are clearly in an accelerated extinction process. Considering all those nasty human things that could cripple life if we fall apart as a civilization it seems fair to say mass extinction is little more than saying we live to die another day. It will happen and is happening but for us short lived apes it maybe just intellectual curiosity. It may not happen for a generation or two. Our kids have more to worry about and their kids even more. They way climate is abruptly changing they may be on the move in a crowded world with nowhere to go. Any way you package this situation things don’t look good. There is no reason for optimism. Yet, let’s drop the drama and use real science and keep things in perspective. It sucks that we destroyed a planet but it is still livable and may be for many years.
Apneaman on Sat, 22nd Jul 2017 6:55 pm
Anonymouse, what do they spend all those billions on every year in public education?
If after 13 years of public education someone still needs help spotting bullshit, then why even bother anymore?
Maybe just give up.
The G-8 can have a ceremony, led by Trump, where we officially hand over the keys, pass the baton to the Chinese.
The Chinese and other Asians don’t have the same struggles with science because their schools effectively teach fundamentals.
Their retarded kids would be honor roll students in the US.
Here is a basic science question and how it would be answered in the US vs China.
What is CO2?
China – one atom of carbon and two atoms of oxygen.
US – A libtard hoax.
Stupid is as stupid does and blaming is for the stupid.
energy investor on Sat, 22nd Jul 2017 6:56 pm
Apnea,
I am glad to see you read the Guardian. Perhaps we Kiwis are headed for the next mass extinction? lol
The rain event in the Southern quarter of the South Island of NZ effectively flooded a number of places that had previously been flooded…like the Taieri Plains. In the flat land of Southern Canterbury, Otago and Southland the flooding cut state highways and the declaration of emergency was primarily so the Civil Defence agencies could order evacuations when they thought it necessary.
The reason why every weather event is hyped up by the news media, IMHO has more to do with scientists trying to promote AGW and has probably also more to do with their potential revenue streams than exceptional weather.
Naturally I am saddened by the flooding of houses and by the farmers’ stock losses but these events have been occurring in one part of NZ or another since I was born 70 years ago – and long before.
We have also had extraordinary snowfalls in the central North Island, but I don’t hear the scientists getting their “knickers in a twist” about that, and the reason may possibly be that it doesn’t fit their IPCC world view.
Davy is right. Humans sensationalise, for whatever reason.
Apneaman on Sat, 22nd Jul 2017 7:32 pm
energy investor, snow in the winter? OMG who wodda thunk it? They have ski resorts in NZ don’t they? Big fucking mountains with snow on them everyone saw in LOTR? Winter is the time of year it usually snows. &0 years and you still haven;t figured that one out yet?
Why don’t you explain why there are so many MORE record braking weather events?
How fucking stupid are you that you cannot understand that simple fucking fact?
How did anyone as stupid as you survive this long?
Probably same as clog and the other guilty retards – protected by their technological bubbles.
You’re just another guilty old cunt who can’t own his shit.
Got kids and grand kids? Is that it? Well your denial has only made it worse for them.
In a way it’s too bad it’s so far gone. If the CO2 was where it was at before globalization there might have been a half way decent chance to slow it down and at least get in a few more lifetimes, but sadly globalization had to happen when the boomers were at the peak of their powers. The most greedy generation – murders of their own grandkids. They are dead now. None of them will see your age or even mine.
You keep denying asshole and I’ll keep posting RECORD SMASHING AND HUMAN SMASHING AGW JACKED WEATHER EVENTS. How come you don’t pop up and dispute those every day?
BTW, Margret Thatcher is as responsible for the IPCC as anyone and I have never mentioned them except to relay how much of a useless, corrupt outdated organization they are. Created by government to control the policy recommendations and manage the scientists. The most recent science they have is a minimum of two years old and does not include any feedbacks. You did not know any of that either.
Over privileged white boomers are responsible for more environmental degradation (and more to come) then all generations before them combined. Y’all should shut the fuck up and die. The sooner the better. It would be the best thing y’all could do for your grand kids. Never happen. Too entitled and y’all will hang on denying and draining what’s left of the resources and leave the grand-kids with nothing but well earned hate and disgust for you and pain,suffering and an early death.
Makati1 on Sat, 22nd Jul 2017 7:33 pm
Ap, as you know, the U$ education system is all about money and control, not “education”. It is easy to control uneducated serfs. But, a real Democracy requires the the total voting public are well educated and able to think for themselves. TPTB cannot rule if they cannot control the serf’s thinking and actions.
“Science” is not taught anymore. Not real science. I had biology, chemistry and physics classes in high school. I learned how the world worked and how it is all interconnected. I still have my 55 year old biology book and it is as true today as it was then. You would have been laughed out of class if you mentioned “creationism”.
There I go again, but then the U$ is such a poster child for stupidity and ignorance.
The U$ is about #17 in world education rankings yet: “In 2013, the United States spent $11,800 per full-time-equivalent (FTE) student on elementary and secondary education, which was 28 percent higher than the OECD average of $9,200. At the postsecondary level, the United States spent $27,900 per FTE student, which was 89 percent higher than the OECD average of $14,800.” And most are still stupid. (And, in student debt slavery to TPTB.)
Its ALL about $$$$$$$ and power. Ignorance is good. Education is bad. LMAO
Davy on Sat, 22nd Jul 2017 7:46 pm
Intellectually lazy view of the US educational system above. There are more exceptionally smart people in the US then the entire population of Canada. Yea, and a lot of retards. I see makati circle jerks his way into the conversation. Asian’s have little creativity they are good at the basics but that is where their talents end. See wack jobs I can generalize too. Are you guys jealous and angry? I think so because you are so emotional sometimes. When you dumbasses get frustrated you kick the same dog. Same thing a different day. You can’t keep to the facts because you know there is no drama in that.
Makati1 on Sat, 22nd Jul 2017 8:27 pm
Davy, “intelligence*” is NOT “education**”. It is obvious that you may be “intelligent”, but not “educated”.
How many “creationists” are intelligent?
How many are “educated”.
How many “intelligent” Americans can give you an outline of U$ history from 1776?
How many even know what 1776 means?
How many can take a blank map of the world and locate the countries they are responsible for destroying over the last 15 years?
How many could even identify the U$ or the state they live in?
Answer: Damned few. THAT is why the U$ education system sucks and why it is now big business, not education.
* Intelligence definition, capacity for learning, reasoning, understanding, and similar forms of mental activity; aptitude in grasping truths, relationships, facts …
** Education definition, the act or process of imparting or acquiring general knowledge, developing the powers of reasoning and judgment, and generally of preparing …
Ability to learn is NOT learning. Most have the ability to learn reasoning and judgement but were never educated on how to do it. And thinking outside the box in America is strictly forbidden. The Police State is becoming blatant to those few who can still think in America. The other 99.% are oblivious to the chains … for now.
You can defend the U$, but the facts are against you, as usual.
dave thompson on Sat, 22nd Jul 2017 8:59 pm
This is a great movie that shows just how much damage we humans have wrought upon this planet. https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=4&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwiP3aeTpp7VAhVJ2oMKHQVnCskQtwIINDAD&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3DKTJ1H0Zp6zQ&usg=AFQjCNE0QYn3ZvAKZjKesdXS0iONB1btUQ
Dredd on Sun, 23rd Jul 2017 5:13 am
energy investor = death investor unless investing in the natural energy that avoids anthropogenic induced extinction and mass murder.
The sixth mass extinction is the mass-murder extinction brought on by the four horsemen of the apocalypse (Apocalypse: The Domestic Enemies).
They still believe in blood-letting as a cure for their disease.
The only variation from the flat-earth daze is that the new implementation of that dementia is to let-out the “bad blood” of the masses.
We are still waiting for their consciousness to arrive (You Are Here).
peakyeast on Sun, 23rd Jul 2017 4:07 pm
@dave: Good Link. Thank you.
Shortend on Sun, 23rd Jul 2017 8:50 pm
I think people really don’t appreciate how much, over the coming decades, nature will be at war with the way that we live.
Absolutely. Absolutely. Look at the storms that are taking place now. You talk about habitability. I’ve been talking about heat. At what point do hurricanes in the tropics make living there just not worth it? You’re being mowed down by these huge number of tornadoes. Sooner or later people are going to get the hell out of Dodge. But this is the sort of storm ferocity that’s coming
Dr Peter Ward…http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/07/what-mass-extinctions-teach-us-about-climate-change-today.html
boat on Sun, 23rd Jul 2017 9:07 pm
shortend,
The richest countries with the best work forces using the latest in tech will have a much higher survival rate. The poor countries in population overshoot will suffer the most.
Charles Maggio on Sun, 23rd Jul 2017 9:27 pm
Wow just wow! I beg you read https://www.iceagenow.info/keynote-address-forget/.
Do you HONESTLY believe we can effect the ERths earth considering it gets 99.98% from our Star which is heading possibly into its only 2x a Millennium solar minimum. Hope you live in N Europe as the Vikings Spread and raided during a mini Ice Age late 700’s -late 800’s. Odd Roman Boats found on Canadian shores which have been Ice locked for 1500 years+. Documents show those waters near U.K., Greenland and Canada a lot water due to Roman’s burning PLASTICS for fuel. Enjoy freezing, crop failures and AL Gore being publicly Quartered!
Mombasa69 on Sun, 23rd Jul 2017 10:36 pm
This Earth will recover no matter what we throw at it, the real issue is we will just destroy ourselves, over-population, resulting in war over resources, ending in total economic collapse, and mass starvation of 80-90% of humanity, it’s happened before, and unless we stop banging out so many brats, it will happen again, it’s really quite depressing.
But nevermind at least the Planet will always recover.
Makati1 on Sun, 23rd Jul 2017 11:02 pm
Boat, have you tried eating your I phone? I doubt it is very digestible. Food will be your main concern. Wait and see.
Do you think that the internet will be available after the SHTF? I don’t. It will become useless when hundreds of millions cannot afford it and it shuts down. No profit. No internet. The military may keep a form of it for their use only, at taxpayer expense, but it will not be available for domestic use. That means YOU.
Anonymouse on Mon, 24th Jul 2017 3:53 am
boatard is stupid enough to actually try something like gnawing on a phone mak, no need to give him any ideas. He might even think an i-phone tastes better than the bulk, discount ramen noodles he normally subsists on.
And yes, I said discount ramen noodle because boatard is so cheap and pathetic, he wouldnt go for just the ‘regular’ variety…
Cloggie on Mon, 24th Jul 2017 4:06 am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QPXaA9SeVjA
Upbeat assessment of the state of solar technology from Stanford.
Solar efficiencies of 33% at a price of $100/m2 becoming the norm soon. Wonder what Charly Hall will have to say about solar and EROEI? Actually, I don’t. Scientists in the past were preoccupied with increasing efficiency, not in optimizing large scale production processes by minimizing energy inputs.
Solar is doing fine in the “sunshine state” California: from 0 to 5 GW in 15 years, with exponential growth and no end in sight.
https://qz.com/953614/california-produced-so-much-power-from-solar-energy-this-spring-that-wholesale-electricity-prices-turned-negative/