Gulf spill forecast, With light winds, current could push plume westward

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration officials say ocean models show a west to southwest current flow in the vicinity of the source of the Gulf of Mexico oil spill.

Under those currents, and with light winds expected to be variable over the next few days, the oil plume from the source of the leak at the Deepwater Horizon site may tend westward towards the Delta, with some of the oil moving to the west of the Delta, the NOAA officials said.

Also under the light winds, sheens generally are more evident.

Any oil in the near offshore near Southwest Pass may come ashore during periods of onshore winds, while Breton Sound and the Chandeleur Islands continue to have a potential for shoreline contacts.

There continues to be no prediction of landfall in Mississippi, Alabama or Florida — with the exception of tar balls — within the forecast period, which extends until Thursday evening.

As the winds weaken, forecaster said, ocean models indicate that any tarballs leading the southern edge of the plume could begin moving more to the southwest and potentially into the loop current, the powerful rotating current that has the potential to push oil toward the Florida Keys.

As with past forecasts, this one was based on the latest National Weather Service forecast data, together with various current models, overflight and satellite imagery and analysis, and other factors.

al.com