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Page added on September 8, 2013
Future offers no guarantee that population will stabilize
Is it true that human overpopulation isn’t such a big issue anymore as numbers are expected to start declining in a few decades?
— Melinda Mason, Boone, Iowa
Ever since Thomas Malthus published “An Essay on the Principle of Population” in 1798, positing incorrectly that humans’ proclivity for procreation would exhaust the global food supply within a matter of decades, population growth has been a hot-button issue among those contemplating humankind’s future. Our very success going forth and multiplying, paired with our ability to extend our life expectancy, has meant that we are perpetually pushing the limits of the resource base that supports us.
When Malthus was worrying about the planet’s “carrying capacity,” there were only about 1 billion of us on the planet. Today our population tops 7 billion. Though better health care and medicine along with advances in food production and access to freshwater and sanitation have allowed us to feed ourselves and stave off many health ills, some so-called Neo-Malthusians think we still may be heading for some kind of population crash, perhaps triggered or exacerbated by environmental factors related to climate change.
But others are less concerned given projections that world population likely will start to decline once the world’s less-developed nations urbanize and start lowering their birth rates, as has happened in Europe, the U.S., Australia and parts of Asia. For example, Europe’s “fertility rate” between 2005 and 2010 was just 1.53 live births per woman (the standard replacement rate to maintain a stable population is 2.1). Without immigration, Europe’s population already would be shrinking.
Of course, the immigration that continues to fuel population numbers in developed countries is coming from somewhere. Population numbers are still growing in many of the world’s developing countries, including the world’s most populous nation, China, and its close rival, India. Fertility rates in Africa continue to be among the highest in the world, as many countries there are growing fast, too. Poverty and health problems due to poor sanitation, lack of access to food and water, the low social status of women and other ills continue to cripple these regions. Overpopulation could plague us indefinitely if fertility rates don’t drop in these areas, especially as they ramp up their Western-style development.
The United Nations estimates the number of humans populating the planet in 2100 will range from as few as 6.2 billion — almost 1 billion fewer than today — to as many as 15.8 billion. Other researchers confirm the likelihood of world population levels flattening out and starting to decline by 2100. The Austria-based International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis recently unveiled research showing that if the world stabilizes at a fertility rate comparable to that of many European nations today (roughly 1.5), the global human population will be only half of what it is today by the year 2200, and only one-seventh by 2300.
It is difficult to say which way the global population pendulum will swing, given ever-changing cultural, economic and political attitudes and the development demographics they affect. As such, the jury is still out as to whether human overpopulation will become a footnote in history or a dominant ill.
13 Comments on "Future offers no guarantee that population will stabilize"
rollin on Sun, 8th Sep 2013 12:55 pm
Yes, there are a lot of people in the world. Too many for me, but it is not up to me or any of us to determine who comes aboard or who does not.
Decarbonize and de-consumerize civilization and the rest will fall in place. We all know that continued fossil fuel use and continued high resource use will lead to a very bad end. So put aside the suicidal tendencies and see where things go when humans actually try to care.
J-Gav on Sun, 8th Sep 2013 12:58 pm
A lot of “ifs” in there and a lot of rather distant dates too. Either human block-headedness or Nature, or some combination of the two, is likely to make the 15.8 billion by 2100 scenario look rather silly.
TIKIMAN on Sun, 8th Sep 2013 2:24 pm
SO all the other articles on this site saying population will peak, go flat, than fall are false?
lol What is this Yahoo.com?
Come on…
actioncjackson on Sun, 8th Sep 2013 7:12 pm
We know for sure that the world’s population started exponentially increasing when the industrial revolution and then the age of oil began, the graphs are the same. Following this reasoning, peak population should correspond with peak oil, and as supply declines so does the number of people it can support. It’s simple, take away oil and watch billions die.
GregT on Sun, 8th Sep 2013 9:22 pm
“It’s simple, take away oil and watch billions die.”
Or……keep burning the remaining oil reserves, and quite likely cause the next global mass extinction event.
dashster on Sun, 8th Sep 2013 11:17 pm
It used to be that the Population Pollyannas would cite 2055 as the beginning of the decline. Then it went to 2065. And now they aren’t talking about a peak in population until 2100.
But for the developed world – like the United States – population control is much easier than the developing world. They have to worry about family planning, the west just needs to stop immigration. Although, you could make a good case that it will be harder to convince Americans to stop immigration than to convince an Indian to only have two kids.
DC on Sun, 8th Sep 2013 11:40 pm
The worlds population will only stop growing when it is physically no longer able to do so.
How or precisely when that moment will occur, no one can say. The one thing we can say for certain is, population growth will not stop on its own just because mush-headed liberals want it to. There is no such thing as a ‘demographic transition’. The population is going to keep on going until it simply can’t anymore.
It wont be a good time for anyone.
BillT on Mon, 9th Sep 2013 12:54 am
dashter, your obsession with those Mexicans will not make a difference. They are being welcomed, not denied. Token efforts are made, but the Mexicans know that. Soon conditions in the US will be worse than in Mexico and then they will go home and Americans will be flooding into Mexico. Be patient.
Your greedy American way of life is coming to an end. The 3rd world is coming to your neighborhood soon. You cannot keep consuming 25% of the world’s resources any longer. You are only allowed the 4% that is your share. Adjust…
kervennic on Mon, 9th Sep 2013 1:09 am
@rollin.
You say you cannot do much about the level of reproduction…
this is not true !
If you consume less, you theoritically help “decarbonizing” the earth. In practice you do nothing because you basically spare or create room for other to consume more or/and more procreation.
BUT ! If you work a lot, than you are really harming the planet. This is not consumption that harms the planet, it is PRODUCTION. Thus industrial full time work.
Besides if you work you helpto create a surplus that makes more baby possible. Without the active collaboration of workers in industrial world, such a a surplus would be impossible and thus the actual level of population growth.
The system needs us.
If you want to save the earth, be lazy. Do not work for the others and fight for free time (meaning time for yourself and not for your boss).
dashster on Mon, 9th Sep 2013 11:35 am
BillT – Nice of you to tell me what should happen in my country. You will forgive me if I disregard it as illogical in light of your otherwise doomer attitude. “Take in more people because all hope is lost”. Yeah, that works.
dashster on Mon, 9th Sep 2013 11:36 am
@DC Let’s hope that liberals and independts can stop population growth even though empty concrete headed conservatives are against it.
BillT on Mon, 9th Sep 2013 1:13 pm
dasher, what country? Mexico? I am a 14th generation American. My family settled in PA in 1734.
Does that make me blind to reality? Nope? Am I afraid to tell it like I see it? Nope. So, what is your problem? Denial?
The Mexicans and other immigrants, legal and illegal are being welcomed by your Masters to lover your wages and life style. If you have not seen that by now, you are just drinking too much of the political cool aid.
dashster on Mon, 9th Sep 2013 2:06 pm
@BillT So which is it now, more people because the rich want it, or more people because you want it?
Do you live in the US and if so why do you talk like you don’t?