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Page added on January 17, 2013
Experts Fear Collapse of Global Civilisation
Experts on the health of our planet are terrified of the future. They can clearly see the coming collapse of global civilisation from an array of interconnected environmental problems.
Poor communities are hit hardest by extreme weather events. Credit: Amantha Perera/IPS
“We’re all scared,” said Paul Ehrlich, president of the Center for Conservation Biology at Stanford University.
“But we must tell the truth about what’s happening and challenge people to do something to prevent it,” Ehrlich told IPS.
Global collapse of human civilisation seems likely, write Ehrlich and his partner Anne Ehrlich in the prestigious science journal, Proceedings of the Royal Society.
This collapse will take the form of a “…gradual breakdown because famines, epidemics and resource shortages cause a disintegration of central control within nations, in concert with disruptions of trade and conflicts over increasingly scarce necessities”, they write.
Already two billion people are hungry today. Food production is humanity’s biggest industry and is already being affected by climate and other environmental problems. “No civilisation can avoid collapse if it fails to feed its population,” the authors say.
Escalating climate disruption, ocean acidification, oceanic dead zones, depletion of groundwater and extinctions of plants and animals are the main drivers of the coming collapse, they write in their peer-reviewed article “Can a collapse of global civilisation be avoided?” published this week.
Dozens of earth systems experts were consulted in writing the 10-page paper that contains over 160 references.
“We talked to many of the world’s leading experts to reflect what is really happening,” said Ehrlich, who is an eminent biologist and winner of many scientific awards.
Our reality is that current overconsumption of natural resources and the resulting damage to life-sustaining services nature provides means we need another half of a planet to keeping going. And that’s if all seven billion remain at their current living standards, the Ehrlichs write.
If everyone lived like a U.S. citizen, another four or five planets would be needed.
Global population is projected to increase by 2.5 billion by 2050. It doesn’t take an expert to conclude that collapse of civilisation will be unavoidable without major changes.
We’re facing a future where billions will likely die, and yet little is being done to avoid certain disaster, he said.
“Policy makers and the public aren’t terrified about this because they don’t have the information or the knowledge about how our planet functions,” he said.
Last March, the world’s scientific community provided the first-ever “state of the planet” assessment at the “Planet Under Pressure” conference in London. More than 3,000 experts concluded humanity is facing a “planetary emergency” and there was no time to lose in making large-scale changes.
In 2010, a coalition of the national scientific bodies and international scientific unions from 141 countries warned that “the continued functioning of the Earth system as we know it is at risk”.
“The situation is absolutely desperate and yet there’s nothing on the front pages or on the agenda of world leaders,” said Pat Mooney, head of the international environmental organisation ETC Group.
“The lack of attention is a tragedy,” Mooney previously told IPS.
Solutions exist and are briefly outlined in the Ehrlich paper. However, these require sweeping changes. All nations need to do everything they can to reduce their emissions of fossil fuels regardless of actions or lack of them by any other country, he said.
Protection of the Earth’s biodiversity must take centre stage in all policy and economic decisions. Water and energy systems must be re-engineered. Agriculture must shift from fossil-fuel intensive industrial monocultures to ecologically-based systems of food production. Resilience and flexibility will be essential for civilisation to survive.
A key element in meeting this unprecedented challenge is “…to see ourselves as utterly embedded in Nature and not somehow separate from those precious systems that sustain all life”, writes England’s Prince Charles commenting on the Ehrlich’s paper.
“To continue with ‘business as usual’ is an act of suicide on a gargantuan scale,” Prince Charles concluded.
IPS
Experts on the health of our planet are terrified of the future. They can clearly see the coming collapse of global civilisation from an array of interconnected environmental problems.
Poor communities are hit hardest by extreme weather events. Credit: Amantha Perera/IPS
“We’re all scared,” said Paul Ehrlich, president of the Center for Conservation Biology at Stanford University.
“But we must tell the truth about what’s happening and challenge people to do something to prevent it,” Ehrlich told IPS.
Global collapse of human civilisation seems likely, write Ehrlich and his partner Anne Ehrlich in the prestigious science journal, Proceedings of the Royal Society.
This collapse will take the form of a “…gradual breakdown because famines, epidemics and resource shortages cause a disintegration of central control within nations, in concert with disruptions of trade and conflicts over increasingly scarce necessities”, they write.
Already two billion people are hungry today. Food production is humanity’s biggest industry and is already being affected by climate and other environmental problems. “No civilisation can avoid collapse if it fails to feed its population,” the authors say.
Escalating climate disruption, ocean acidification, oceanic dead zones, depletion of groundwater and extinctions of plants and animals are the main drivers of the coming collapse, they write in their peer-reviewed article “Can a collapse of global civilisation be avoided?” published this week.
Dozens of earth systems experts were consulted in writing the 10-page paper that contains over 160 references.
“We talked to many of the world’s leading experts to reflect what is really happening,” said Ehrlich, who is an eminent biologist and winner of many scientific awards.
Our reality is that current overconsumption of natural resources and the resulting damage to life-sustaining services nature provides means we need another half of a planet to keeping going. And that’s if all seven billion remain at their current living standards, the Ehrlichs write.
If everyone lived like a U.S. citizen, another four or five planets would be needed.
Global population is projected to increase by 2.5 billion by 2050. It doesn’t take an expert to conclude that collapse of civilisation will be unavoidable without major changes.
We’re facing a future where billions will likely die, and yet little is being done to avoid certain disaster, he said.
“Policy makers and the public aren’t terrified about this because they don’t have the information or the knowledge about how our planet functions,” he said.
Last March, the world’s scientific community provided the first-ever “state of the planet” assessment at the “Planet Under Pressure” conference in London. More than 3,000 experts concluded humanity is facing a “planetary emergency” and there was no time to lose in making large-scale changes.
In 2010, a coalition of the national scientific bodies and international scientific unions from 141 countries warned that “the continued functioning of the Earth system as we know it is at risk”.
“The situation is absolutely desperate and yet there’s nothing on the front pages or on the agenda of world leaders,” said Pat Mooney, head of the international environmental organisation ETC Group.
“The lack of attention is a tragedy,” Mooney previously told IPS.
Solutions exist and are briefly outlined in the Ehrlich paper. However, these require sweeping changes. All nations need to do everything they can to reduce their emissions of fossil fuels regardless of actions or lack of them by any other country, he said.
Protection of the Earth’s biodiversity must take centre stage in all policy and economic decisions. Water and energy systems must be re-engineered. Agriculture must shift from fossil-fuel intensive industrial monocultures to ecologically-based systems of food production. Resilience and flexibility will be essential for civilisation to survive.
A key element in meeting this unprecedented challenge is “…to see ourselves as utterly embedded in Nature and not somehow separate from those precious systems that sustain all life”, writes England’s Prince Charles commenting on the Ehrlich’s paper.
“To continue with ‘business as usual’ is an act of suicide on a gargantuan scale,” Prince Charles concluded.
18 Comments on "Experts Fear Collapse of Global Civilisation"
GregT on Thu, 17th Jan 2013 3:43 pm
The scientific community has been warning us for over 40 years of the direction that we are heading. We haven’t been listening. We are still not listening. With every passing year the solutions become more desperate and the future becomes less forgiving.
While we can survive in an environment without an economy, we will not survive in an economy without an environment.
Do we listen to the economists or do we listen to the environmentalists?
One group offers mankind a sustainable future, the other does not.
Rick on Thu, 17th Jan 2013 4:52 pm
Nothing new here.
GregT: You’re correct.
It’s also a catch 22 thing. No one would like to see about 6 billion people removed from the planet, so it can heal. But that is what is needed.
Most of the problems on this planet stem from too many people.
econ101 on Thu, 17th Jan 2013 4:56 pm
This article is more tha absurd. It bothers to quote prince Charles. He said 10 yrs ago the earth would be uninhabitable by now if we didnt change. This is alarmist politics at its worst, lining up the base to continue to vote and support eh policies that have put us in these unfavorable positions. Key are of course the fictions of peak oil and climate change. These two arguments can be used to lead the uniformed, but emotionally charged masses, no matter what the facts are. Nice days=proof of global warming. Cold stromy days too. Any downward tick in oil production = absolute proof of peak oil. It goes on and on. How long are people going to let these mongers of fear and dispare rule their minds? Al Gore? LOL
LT on Thu, 17th Jan 2013 4:58 pm
Quote: “Experts Fear Collapse of Global Civilisation”
>> The article’s title is confusing! The author seems to mean “global MATERIALISTIC civilization”, which is an external aspect of human life.
Since industrial revolution, men have advanced far MATERIALISTICALLY, but very little or NONE spiritually.
Look around, it’s easy to find many leaders in many countries often dress in high dollar suits, drive fancy cars, live in big mansions, but still remain very barbaric in thoughts and in actions. Today’s Barbarism is no lesser nor better compared to that of the ancient times.
Ignorance/arrogance are more destructive than peak oil or peak resources.
Think about it. Be aware of it. Reflect upon it. Try to cure it.
J-Gav on Thu, 17th Jan 2013 5:27 pm
I would suggest clicking on and reading the original paper (10 pages isn’t that much after all)rather than this somewhat botched overview.
GregT on Thu, 17th Jan 2013 5:45 pm
Econ101,
Stop spreading disinformation.
What Prince Charles said in 2007:
“It must surely be clear by now that the longer we leave it before taking effective action, the more dire the situation will become and the more desperate the measures that will be needed.”
“Make no mistake about it, we are well on the way to destroying those conditions, and making our planet uninhabitable.”
“This is not about saving the planet. Actually, it’s about saving us. That is where each and every one of us has a responsibility to do what we can.”
Plantagenet on Thu, 17th Jan 2013 6:34 pm
The Ehrlichs predicted mass famines and societal collapse would occur in the 1970s and 1980s in their 1960s book “The Population Bomb”
They were wrong then. Nothing they predicted actually happened.
Now they are predicting the same things all over again. Given their poor record in predicting, chances are the Ehrlichs will be proved wrong again.
rollin on Fri, 18th Jan 2013 12:01 am
A bit late to get on this band wagon, anyone watching has seen the disintegration start years ago. Also, this is not a population problem, it’s a technology problem driven by a very bad legal/government system. Most of the destruction is being driven by about 10 percent of the people. The rest of the people are captives and mostly along for the ride.
Kenz300 on Fri, 18th Jan 2013 6:15 am
Quote — “If everyone lived like a U.S. citizen, another four or five planets would be needed.
Global population is projected to increase by 2.5 billion by 2050. It doesn’t take an expert to conclude that collapse of civilisation will be unavoidable without major changes.
We’re facing a future where billions will likely die, and yet little is being done to avoid certain disaster, he said.”
————————–
Endless population growth is not sustainable and will only lead to more poverty, suffering and despair. Yet the worlds poorest people continue to have the most children trapping them into a life of desperation.
GregT on Fri, 18th Jan 2013 6:29 am
Kenz,
The world’s “poorest” people are the least likely to notice any difference in their way of life as this mess unfolds.
Those of us living in the “first” world are in for a very rude awakening.
BillT on Fri, 18th Jan 2013 7:32 am
rollin, you of all of the above understand that it is mostly the ‘for profit’ Western countries that are to blame. The US 300 million consu7me more than twice China’s 1,300 million. And four times that of India’s 1,000 million. If only the Western countries were dropped to 3rd world levels of consumption, the species could survive.
Of course that famous hot place will freeze over before that happens, or so they believe. I think the time is close when circumstances will take down the 1st world, practically over night. And it needs to happen soon, very soon!
Ham on Fri, 18th Jan 2013 8:19 am
Lol econ101 – peak oil and climate change are the result of ’emotionally charged’ reasoning? Most of the World’s Scientists and Geologists are wrong? Politics is all one big conspiracy to delude people? We can put 60 billion tons of CO2 into the biosphere annually and nothing will happen, furthermore, we can drill forever because oil is unlimited. No such thing as EROEI. All of this is due to being ‘uninformed’.
Glad that there are people such as yourself around; we’d have to use our brains for reasoning and hearts for emotions otherwise; we can’t do that, we’d have to come down from an Ivory Tower full of twaddle.
Mike in Calif. on Fri, 18th Jan 2013 9:13 am
Don’t worry. Ehrlich knows the problems and has the solutions. All we need is “unusual levels of international cooperation.”
I’ll take an honest pessimist over an activist/”scientist” any day. He openly calls on natural scientists to become politicians and social “scientists” to propagandize. Is this how science works now? He jabs dogmatic orthodoxies (He means American Christians.) as leading a new ‘endarkenment’ but naturally doesn’t consider that his own views – particularly his naive residual optimism – may be just as irrational and ‘religious.’
It’s not that he doesn’t describe some of the problems with clarity. Rather his thinking is just plain muddled. For example he opens:
“Virtually every past civilization has eventually undergone collapse, a loss of socio-political-economic complexity usually accompanied by a dramatic decline in population size [1].”
In fact and by definition, no, not one, “past” civilization has avoided collapse or absorption. This is what “past” means. Since global civilization cannot absorb itself, collapse is inevitable by his own assertion. Maybe we can avoid starvation. Perhaps we’ll dodge the climate bullet. Makes no great difference.
The at-risk system (modern, global, technical civilization) is maxed and built for “normal” and is far too fragile to endure even the expected shocks much less Black Swan events like an epidemic, an X class solar flare or a Toba eruption.
BillT on Fri, 18th Jan 2013 11:06 am
An X class solar flare would kill globalization in a heartbeat. Think of ONE important thing today NOT connected to a computer/electronic device?
GPS? OUT!
Internet? OUT!
Electrical systems? OUT!
Satellite communication? OUT!
Most new cars? OUT!
Anything with a computer chip? OUT!
Nuclear plants? OUT!
What’s left? Hmm. Antique cars that still run. Phones connected by wire, maybe. Antique coal locomotives. Etc.
Think about that eye blink! ^_^
Frank Kling on Fri, 18th Jan 2013 2:44 pm
Ehrlich’s timing may have been off, but his analysis is spot-on.
Every 24 hours 200 animal and plant species, on average, are driven extinct while during this same time frame the human population bomb grows by another 225,000.
It does not require a genius to understand that this equation is in extreme disequilibrium. It’s just a matter of time. The signs are everywhere for those who care to look-Chytrid, White Nose Syndrome. Colony Collapse Disorder, etc.
Arthur on Fri, 18th Jan 2013 3:21 pm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_R._Ehrlich
If Ehrlich predicts “a disintegration of central control within nations” than it is difficult to see why he would advocate “unusual levels of international cooperation.”
I have a fear that mr Ehrlich is hinting at global government, the NWO via the back door so to speak. Never waste a good crisis, he must have thought.
That does not mean he is not largely right in diagnosing problems, but we already were aware of those problems for 40 years.
Solution nr one: stop breeding. That message should be trumpeted, first and foremost in the third world. The West and China bring that already into practice.
Oh and mr Ehrlich: forget about world government. It will be difficult enough to keep large geographical entities in one piece. It is more likely that these entities will fall apart caused by ‘rampant tribalism’ and war lords, as you admit yourself.
Gale Whitaker on Sat, 19th Jan 2013 1:53 am
Not to worry! God will protect us! Just be sure you don’t use any sinful birth control apparatuses.
jaki on Sat, 19th Jan 2013 2:57 am
collapse is inevitable. History will tell you….then, there’ll be rebirth…of humans? i don’t think so. The era of the dinosaurs was far far better than us.