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Exiting The Anthropocene
The beginning of the Anthropocene, the period when humanity became the predominant driver of changes in the Earth Systems, has been open to debate. Some argue for the period of the post-WW2 Great Acceleration, others for the beginning of industrialization, and some would perhaps go back as far as the European conquest and colonization of the rest of the world. What few seem to grasp is that the Anthropocene may last but a few decades, until the Earth responds like a boulder rolling down a hill. Humanity provided the push that overcame its inertia, but once in motion it accelerates away all by itself.
To exit the Anthropocene is to enter a period where humanity will be incapable of doing anything meaningful to stop climatic changes. Paleoclimatological research has shown that the Earth can jump up and sprint like a Gazelle at tipping points, with such things as one degree per year temperature increases, and feet of sea level rise per decade. Once started, these will be far too fast for society to reverse, it will simply have to adapt or even just struggle to survive. This is what scientists refer to as Abrupt Climate Change.
While the evidence that the door to the end of the Anthropocene is opening wide mounts, our society seems unable to grasp the scale and urgency of the danger. At the level of the United Nations, we have “soft” denial; an acceptance that climate change is real, but an assumption that the rate of change will be relatively slow and linear. It can be dealt with by some tweaks to the way our societies are currently run, nothing too unsettling required. And anyway, any overshooting of carbon dioxide levels can always be dealt with by new technology to suck it out of the air and safely store it. “We have the technology”. Then there are the “hard” deniers, personified by President Trump, who seem intent on the destruction of any public institutions that deliver inconvenient facts such as those that confirm the reality of climate change. It is as if the crew of the Titanic was split between those that thought that it would take days to sink, and those that believed that it would never sink. No need to panic, better to relax with a nice cup of tea.
The Arctic: The Canary In The Earth System
Miners used to take a canary down into the earth with them. As the canary was more susceptible to the effects of carbon monoxide and methane than humans, it would die well before the humans were overcome; allowing them to escape in time. Climatologists talk about Arctic Amplification, the greater response of the Arctic region to climate change than other parts of the planet[1]. With temperatures now regularly 20 degrees centigrade above normal in parts of the Arctic it is apparent that it has already entered a period of abrupt climate change. It has been estimated that the effect of the reduction in sea ice and snow in the region, experienced by 2010, was already equal to 25% of human-driven climate change. The reflective white snow and ice had been replaced by dark water and ground that take in much more of the Sun’s energy, rather than reflect it back out to space. Since 2010, the sea ice has continued its decline. No theoretical models are required to understand the pace of change, just the ability to fit a curve to the monthly observations, as Wipneus provides each month[2].
As sea ice is a three dimensional entity, it’s important to track volume rather than surface area. The volume has been showing a much worse picture than area, as the ice has thinned considerably. Soon that reduction in volume will be matched by a rapid decline in area that will provide much larger expanses of dark water to suck in the Sun’s energy. Researchers have estimated that if the Arctic became ice-free for the month of September only in 2040, the extra energy that would be taken in would equal half of the current carbon budget[3]. They should perhaps get away from the climate models and look at Wipneus’ graphs, the early 2020’s may be a much more reasonable time for an ice-free September. By itself, that would more than negate the currently assumed carbon budget.
With a feedback loop of more open water = more heat = more ice melt = more open water, an ice free September would be followed by August, July and then June. The Sun’s energy hitting the Arctic is many times greater at the height of the summer, so things will only get worse as more and more ice is gone in June. It had been assumed that extra reflective clouds would appear over the open water, making up for the lack of sea ice, but recent observations seem to contradict that. The extra cloudiness has mainly been seen in the fall, not the summer, when it acts as a blanket to keep the heat in by reflecting much of it back to Earth[4]. The extra heat that would be taken in by an ice-free Arctic from June onwards is quite possibly greater than that captured by all man-made carbon emissions. Stop and think about that statement. “Abrupt” really doesn’t do it justice.
With that heating concentrated in the Arctic, rather than spread across the world, it will play havoc with structure of the climate and our weather systems. The slow march northward of the northern Hadley Cell assumed by the United Nations may turn into a chaotic interaction between the Hadley, Ferrel and Polar Cells, removing the predictability required by our farmers to grow our food. The increasing weakening and meandering of the Jet Stream, that separates the Polar Cell from the rest of the Northern Hemisphere, has already been observed for the past few years. As the Arctic warms more than the rest of the Northern Hemisphere, the temperature differential that drives the Polar Jet Stream is reduced. The effect will also be felt in the Southern Hemisphere, as a warmer Northern Hemisphere will force more of the heat taken in at the Equator southwards[5].
The breakdown of the Jet Stream also acts as a positive feedback for the Arctic, as storms from the south find it easier to enter the polar region[6]. They bring both extra heat and extra moisture into the region, both of which reduce the thickness of sea ice. An example is that of Storm Frank in 2015 that thinned and shrank the sea ice cover in the middle of the Arctic winter[7]. With open waters, and even thinner stretches of ice, such storms also churn the sea up. This both mechanically attacks the ice, and allows warmer water from below to be brought to the surface.
Increased Natural Carbon Emissions
Within the Earth Systems, there is ongoing cycling of carbon between the land, oceans and atmosphere. Prior to humanity adding extra carbon emissions, this process had been balanced – with the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere varying little from year to year, for at least 10,000 years. This was the period of the Holocene that encompasses all of modern human history; from the first small settlements to the mega-cities of today. As temperatures rise, due to human emissions, the rate of natural emissions can increase and the rate of uptake from the sinks reduce. Permafrost melts releasing its stored carbon, forests decline, and peat bogs increase their output of carbon dioxide, etc. Recent research and observations point to these processes starting to have a significant effect[8] [9], which will tend to offset reductions in human emissions.
Assumptions that the increased levels of carbon dioxide will increase the level of plant growth, driving up the storage of carbon and increasingly offsetting human emissions, have come under challenge. Recent research points to a relatively small temperature range in which a given plant flourishes, that will limit such extra growth. In addition, other variables such as the availability of water, will serve to limit the beneficial effect of extra carbon dioxide[10]. There is also the possibility that deforestation is moving towards a critical point in some areas, where the forest may collapse[11].
The Boulder Is Starting To Tip Over – Exiting The Anthropocene
We are close to the point where the Earth will tip over and start rolling by itself, ending the short Anthropocene. After which humanity will be turned back into an observer of changes in Earth Systems, rather than a remaker of those systems. The need for rapid changes in the way that we run our societies, and the acceptance that the old geographical and climatic certainties may rapidly change, is needed. The thought that we can simply geo-engineer our way out of trouble may be proven to be the naiveté of a still young civilization.
37 Comments on "Exiting The Anthropocene"
DerHundistlos on Wed, 12th Apr 2017 4:12 pm
Prayer for all Beings
May I be a protector to those without protection.
A leader for those who journey.
And a boat, a bridge, a passage
For those desiring the further shore.
May the pain of every living creature
Be completely cleaned away.
May I be the doctor and the medicine
And may I be the nurse
For all sick beings in the world
Until everyone is healed.
Just like space
And the great elements such as earth,
May I always support the life
Of all the boundless creatures.
And until they pass away from pain
May I also be the source of life
For all the realms of varied beings
That reach unto the ends of space.
~~~~Shantideva~~~~
You Don't Want to Know Me on Wed, 12th Apr 2017 4:25 pm
“May the pain of every living creature
Be completely cleaned away.”
That’s nice but I tend to agree with the Bhudda – life is suffering. Pain can never be completely cleaned away because it is integral to the condition of being alive.
So after getting my leg virtually blown off and suffering from a painful auto-immune disease for much of my life I’m just of the opinion that we should get used to pain.
Hubert on Wed, 12th Apr 2017 4:34 pm
VENEZUELA is LOSING it
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-SJq3CE-40k
Apneaman on Wed, 12th Apr 2017 4:37 pm
Well past the tipping point when the inertia is factored in. And the humans are not stopping either, nor will they.
I find it rather poetic that the Florida denier fucks get to burn Before they get to hell.
Florida governor declares state of emergency as destructive wildfires rage across the state
““Much of Central and South Florida are approaching drought-like conditions and the chances for wildfires are continuing to increase with hotter temperatures and low rainfall,” Scott said in a release on April 11.
The latest report from the U.S. Drought Monitor shows that over 42 percent of Florida is dealing with moderate drought conditions, while 13 percent of the state is experiencing severe drought.”
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/florida-governor-declares-state-of-emergency-as-destructive-wildfires-rage-across-the-state/70001377
They gonna drown too.
‘We’re scared’: Sea-level rise issue prompts Senate hearing in West Palm
http://www.palmbeachpost.com/weather/scared-sea-level-rise-issue-prompts-senate-hearing-west-palm/pLjIv5luRoyFPcPm9N39KK/
The Perfect Tide: Sea Level and the Future of South Florida
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qRGuQKv4gPU
DerHundistlos on Wed, 12th Apr 2017 5:09 pm
@ i Most Likely Would Like to Know You
Yes, I agree with your observation, although we are guilty of inflicting a level of pain and suffering on our non-human brethren that would otherwise not exist. For this I feel guilty for my part and I am compelled to do everything I can to atone for these sins via action.
DerHundistlos on Wed, 12th Apr 2017 5:13 pm
“‘We’re scared’: Sea-level rise issue prompts Senate hearing in West Palm”
I offer a prayer that the Dear Leader’s south Florida properties suffer first and worst along with his climate denying, natural world killing Republican kin in congress.
You Don't Want to Know Me on Wed, 12th Apr 2017 5:21 pm
“I find it rather poetic that the Florida denier fucks get to burn Before they get to hell”
Schadenfreude – a sin yet so enjoyable.
@DerHundislos
Guilt? What’s that? Animals behave according to their genetic dispositions and behavioral conditioning. Nature + Nuture as they say. Humans do what they do – might as well blame rats for being dirty, diseased, vermin infested creatures – which they are but that’s just what they do – no guilt or blame.
Humans ain’t no different.
Ghung on Wed, 12th Apr 2017 5:32 pm
Humans have the capacity to know better. We pride ourselves on our other accomplishments. Why not our behavior? We even have books and lists of rules that we proceed to ignore. Sort of like the party of the “Moral Majority” voting overwhelmingly for a man that clearly violates most of the tenets of their so-called morality, yet they want to post their Ten Commandments everywhere. Go figure.
We were much wiser and more accountable on the tribal level. At least, that’s what I was told.
You Don't Want to Know Me on Wed, 12th Apr 2017 5:37 pm
“Humans have the capacity to know better.”
That is assertion without proof.
“We pride ourselves on our other accomplishments.”
Whose “we”? There are many people who feel that the human race is somehow special or something, separate from and above the animals. I don’t believe that.
“We were much wiser and more accountable on the tribal level. At least, that’s what I was told.”
There are a lot of value judgments and assertions in that statement. Tough to parse fully but that was then, this is now humans are what they are. That’s all I’m going on.
Plantagenet on Wed, 12th Apr 2017 5:46 pm
Runway global warming doesn’t end the Anthropocene.
Runaway global warming IS the Anthropocene.
Cheers!
John Kintree on Wed, 12th Apr 2017 7:49 pm
That is my understanding of Anthropogenic, also, Plantagenet.
At 3 mm per year of sea level rise, by 2027 we may see an increase of 3 cm, which is about 1.5 inches. If there is dramatic acceleration of sea level rise in the next ten years, we may be looking at sea levels that are 2 to 3 inches higher by 2027. This is definitely a cause for concern, but does not mean the end of the game.
In terms of paradigm shifting events, it is possible that by 2027 there will be approximately human level conversational artificial general intelligence accessible to almost all of humanity over the Internet. For some specific tasks, it may be vastly superior to human level.
I would instruct my personal digital assistant to represent my in a global online Congress to work for the realization of the principles of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and the Earth Charter.
I would ask my personal digital representative in this global Congress to give special attention to Article 7d of the Earth Charter.
Davy on Wed, 12th Apr 2017 8:12 pm
I hope we see more of these.
“Tornado locomotive steams across Ribblehead Viaduct”
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-york-north-yorkshire-39581712
Sissyfuss on Wed, 12th Apr 2017 9:20 pm
The Anthropocene will be followed by the Endocene where we will not be found. When you lose your balance you fall down. When the Earth loses its balance everything falls apart.
DerHundistlos on Wed, 12th Apr 2017 10:32 pm
@ Don’t
So you are claiming that our brain has no impact on our decisions- it’s all nature plus a bit of nurture. If that were so, then you should have little problem predicting human behavior.
And, yes, I do feel guilt for our destruction of the natural world. Perhaps you are a biological machine deviod of emotion in which case you are correct that I probably do not want to know you.
DerHundistlos on Wed, 12th Apr 2017 10:34 pm
@ Ghung
Thank you for expressing my point more precisely.
You Don't Want to Know Me on Wed, 12th Apr 2017 10:41 pm
“So you are claiming that our brain has no impact on our decisions- it’s all nature plus a bit of nurture. If that were so, then you should have little problem predicting human behavior.”
No, I really didn’t say anything like that at all.
The debate about how much of us is based upon our nature (genes) vs. how much of us is based upon our nurture (culture) is fairly well researched and discussed. I think you should check it out and get a better idea of what I’m speaking about.
Sissyfuss on Wed, 12th Apr 2017 10:56 pm
You’re right, I don’t want know you.
Boat on Wed, 12th Apr 2017 11:19 pm
Switzerland eats dog along with protein needing humans in the artic. Japan, China and SKorea do the dog. I don’t do the dog, culture.
makati1 on Wed, 12th Apr 2017 11:59 pm
Boat, look into the stuff in hot dogs, sausage, bologna, etc. You might be surprised what you are eating. LOL
GregT on Thu, 13th Apr 2017 12:18 am
“Boat, look into the stuff in hot dogs, sausage, bologna, etc. You might be surprised what you are eating. LOL”
Boat told us all already that he grows vegetables in plastic buckets that used to contain pool chemicals. I doubt he’s too worried about far lesser sources of carcinogens.
GregT on Thu, 13th Apr 2017 12:21 am
“Switzerland eats dog along with protein needing humans in the arctic.”
The Boat most nonsensical quote of the hour. You just can’t make this shit up.
You Don't Want to Know Me on Thu, 13th Apr 2017 8:51 am
“You’re right, I don’t want know you.”
Good choice.
Don't Make Me Get Ugly With You on Thu, 13th Apr 2017 11:15 am
I am really efarmer, I just wanted a bitchin’ name similar to You Don’t Want to Know Me. My name is well thought out, and is also a nifty time paradox according to my girlfriend.
Apneaman on Thu, 13th Apr 2017 11:44 am
Antarctica’s sleeping ice giant could wake soon
The massive East Antarctic Ice Sheet looks stable from above — but it’s a dangerously different story below.
“These first direct observations confirmed a fear that researchers had long harboured: that warm waters from the surrounding ocean can sneak underneath the floating glacier tongue and eat the ice away from below1. “This could explain why Totten has been thinning in the past few decades,” says Rintoul.”
http://www.nature.com/news/antarctica-s-sleeping-ice-giant-could-wake-soon-1.21808
DerHundistlos on Thu, 13th Apr 2017 2:06 pm
@ I Don’t Want to Know You
You said, “…might as well blame rats for being dirty, diseased, vermin infested creatures.”
Your comment could not be more wrong, and I thank you for making my point.
As a consequence of us, rats are forced to live in “dirty and diseased” environments. This is not a natural choice. The great Polish author, Andrzej Zaniewski, writes, “Animals as intelligent as rats are guided not only by their instinct but also by their intellect, associations, and memories; they are more human than we humans, in our arrogance, are willing to admit. The self-styled or divinely appointed lords of creation, human beings should be tolerant protectors and friends of the billions of creatures whose languages they don’t understand and whose behavior they judge according to schemes that are convenient for them. Unfortunately the opposite is true….”
For someone who claims to admire the Buddha, your ugly remark regarding rats is in direct contrast to the teachings of Buddhism. For Buddhism places the rat in a high position relative to the hierarchy of living creatures.
Apneaman on Thu, 13th Apr 2017 3:45 pm
As the humans approach a new era when they will need their medicine the more than at any other time in their short existence their most magical drugs of all, antibiotics, are going bye bye and in the name of profit as fast as fast can.
Peer Into the Post-Apocalyptic Future of Antimicrobial Resistance
“ABOUT 4 MILLION years ago, a cave was forming in the Delaware Basin of what is now Carlsbad Caverns National Park in New Mexico. From that time on, Lechuguilla Cave remained untouched by humans or animals until its discovery in 1986—an isolated, pristine primeval ecosystem.
When the bacteria found on the walls of Lechuguilla were analyzed, many of the microbes were determined not only to have resistance to natural antibiotics like penicillin, but also to synthetic antibiotics that did not exist on earth until the second half of the twentieth century. As infectious disease specialist Brad Spellberg put it in the New England Journal of Medicine, “These results underscore a critical reality: antibiotic resistance already exists, widely disseminated in nature, to drugs we have not yet invented.”
https://www.wired.com/2017/03/peer-post-apocalyptic-future-antimicrobial-resistance/
Nonpartisan watchdog finds ‘gaps’ in oversight of antibiotics in agriculture
“According to a recent report from the nonpartisan Government Accountability Office, there are “gaps” in the U.S. Department of Agriculture and Food and Drug Administration’s antibiotic oversight. Those gaps include a lack of data collected from farms and of metrics that help gauge whether government initiatives are actually doing what they’re designed to do.”
http://investigatemidwest.org/2017/04/04/nonpartisan-watchdog-finds-gaps-in-oversight-of-antibiotics-in-agriculture/
Speaking of profit, there ain’t any in developing any new antibiotics. At least no quick return and that’s why there are only two drug companies working on it last I checked. The good old days so many long for are about to return. Get a cut, get infected and die.
Boat on Thu, 13th Apr 2017 5:00 pm
greggiet opens mouth before using the Google. Go ahead greggiet, Google countries that eat dogs.
Apneaman on Thu, 13th Apr 2017 5:02 pm
Killing dogs and cats for meat is still legal in 44 U.S. states
http://inhabitat.com/killing-dogs-and-cats-for-meat-is-still-legal-in-44-u-s-states/
onlooker on Thu, 13th Apr 2017 5:07 pm
I hate insects but they say chocolate covered ants is a delightful delicacy
onlooker on Thu, 13th Apr 2017 5:09 pm
http://www.ecoshock.org/2017/04/the-time-of-climate-departure.html
Science has already predicted when we will leave our former climate behind. Somewhere between 2033 and 2070, nothing will be the same in a hotter world
GregT on Thu, 13th Apr 2017 5:15 pm
People all around the world eat dogs Boat. WTF does that have to do with your incoherent babbling below?
“Switzerland eats dog along with protein needing humans in the arctic.”
More of your ridiculous nonsense.
Boat on Thu, 13th Apr 2017 5:16 pm
Ape
Good find. Now I gotta find out who can legally eat the dog. Lol
makati1 on Thu, 13th Apr 2017 6:17 pm
Dog is eaten in most Asian countries. Why not? Most meat species are edible, including the intelligent ape. When the SHTF and you are starving, Rover will look pretty tasty. Better than cannibalism, until …. Never say never.
Apneaman on Fri, 14th Apr 2017 12:40 am
From the dead apes walking files, another “faster than previously thought” major positive feedback. You know, like I been saying y’all would be hearing about.
The Permafrost is Thawing 20 Percent Faster Than Previously Thought
“Even in a world at 1 to 1.2 C warmer than 19th Century averages the permafrost is in trouble.
Already, vast thawed lands are starting to release carbon dioxide and methane. Thermokarst lakes bubble with the stuff. And pingos are now starting to erupt as the ice relinquishes the soils of Siberia. Russians, ironically concerned about the safety of an oil and gas infrastructure that helped to precipitate the warming in the first place, are starting to install seismographs to detect these new warming-induced eruptions from the thawed lands. Meanwhile, each new summer brings with it ridiculously warm temperatures, never before seen Arctic thunderstorms, and epic wildfires that rage over these growing piles of peat-like carbon laid down during the course of millions of years of glaciation — but now unlocked in just years and decades by an unnatural thaw.
Permafrost Thawing at 20 Percent Faster Rate Than We Previously Thought
Back in the late 1800s, permafrost covered about 17 million square kilometers of the Northern Hemisphere. In less than 150 years, that extent has been reduced by 2 million square kilometers due to the warming that has, to date, been produced by fossil fuel burning and related carbon emissions. Even worse, according to the new research, present temperatures alone are enough to, this Century, push permafrost coverage back to 12.5 million square kilometers.”
https://robertscribbler.com/2017/04/13/the-permafrost-is-thawing-20-percent-faster-than-previously-thought/
Apneaman on Fri, 14th Apr 2017 12:51 am
If your a cancer and you know it…..
US lakes soaking up road salt, some heading toward toxic levels
Your local lake is not alone.
“Although no ancient civilization probably ever pulled off the logistical feat of intentionally salting a conquered people’s lands, our modern ones may be doing it unintentionally. Those friendly snowplows (and your sidewalk-shoveling neighbors) are spreading an astounding volume of salt, and it has to go somewhere once it melts.”
https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/04/thousands-of-us-lakes-probably-getting-saltier-thanks-to-road-salt/
clap your hands…….. CLAP! CLAP!
GregT on Fri, 14th Apr 2017 1:13 am
“Now I gotta find out who can legally eat the dog.”
A great subject for a grade 5 social studies report Boat. Good luck with your research little buddy.
DerHundistlos on Fri, 14th Apr 2017 1:26 pm
@ APE
“If you’re a cancer and you know it….” = FUNNY