Economic Development and Long-Term Consequences of Growth

A population’s growth is strongly influenced by the proportions of individuals of particular ages, which in turn is influenced by economic development.

1. 

   Population bar graphs for stages of demographic change from expansion to contraction

   The leftmost diagram representing the age structure of a rapidly-growing population indicates that the number of individuals decreases rapidly with age. The slow-growth model shows that the proportion of individuals decreases steadily with age. The stable population diagram is rounded on top; the older part of the population is a larger proportion of the population than in the other age diagrams. The rightmost diagram represents a population that may be stable or even declining. The relatively few young people may not be making up for the mortality among the older age groups.

   Key Points

   • Population dynamics are influenced by age structure, which is characteristic for populations growing at different rates.
   • Age structure varies according to the age distribution of individuals within a population.
   • Fast-growing populations with a high proportion of young people have a triangle-shaped age structure, representing younger ages at the bottom and older ages at the top.
   • Slow-growing populations with a smaller proportion of young people have a column-shaped age structure, representing a relatively even distribution of ages.
   • Improvements in health care have led to the population explosion in underdeveloped countries, causing a “youth bulge” which is associated with social unrest.

   Terms

   • population dynamics
     the variation of populations due to birth and death rates, by immigration and emigration, and concerning topics such as aging populations or population decline
   • age structure
     the composition of a population in terms of the proportions of individuals of different ages; represented as a bar graph with younger ages at the bottom and males and females on either side
   • youth bulge
     age structure typical of fast-growing populations in which a majority of the population are relatively young

   Figures

   1. 

      Global percent growth rate of population

      The percent growth rate of population in different countries shows that the highest growth rates are in underdeveloped regions of Africa and Asia.

      Age structure, population growth, and economic development

      The variation of populations over time, also known as their population dynamics, depends on biological and environmental processes that determine population changes. A population’s growth rate is strongly influenced by the proportions of individuals of particular ages. With knowledge of this age structure, population growth can be more-accurately predicted. Age structure data allow the rate of growth (or decline) to be associated with a population’s level of economic development. For example, the population of a country with rapid growth has a triangle-shaped age structure with a greater proportion of younger individuals who are at or close to reproductive age (Figure 1). This pattern typically occurs where fewer people live to old age because of sub-optimal living standards, such as occurs in underdeveloped countries.

      Some developed countries, including the United States, have a slowly-growing population. This results in a column-shaped age structure diagram with steeper sides. In these cases, the population has fewer young and reproductive-aged individuals, with a greater proportion of older individuals. Some developed countries, such as Italy, have zero population growth. Countries with declining populations, such as Japan, have a bulge in the middle of their age structure diagram. The bulge indicates relatively-few young individuals, and a higher proportion of middle-aged and older individuals.

      Globally, less-economically developed countries in Africa and Asia have the highest growth rates, leading to populations consisting mostly of younger people (Figure 2). Improved health care, beginning in the 1960s, is one of the leading causes of the increased growth rates that created the population explosion. For example, in the Middle East and North Africa, around 65 percent of the population is under the age of 30. These high growth rates lead to the so-called “youth bulge,” which some experts believe is a cause of social unrest and economic problems such as high unemployment.

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3 Comments on "Economic Development and Long-Term Consequences of Growth"

Makati1 on Thu, 19th Dec 2013 2:34 pm 



The youth bulge is perfect if you want to go to war.

Age 18-35 males…

China: ~ 180,000,000
Russia: ~ 18,000,000
vs
Japan: ~ 15,000,000
The EU: ~ 55,000,000
The US: ~ 35,000,000

And a huge surplus of unemployed males in all of these countries looking for something to do.

Jimmy on Thu, 19th Dec 2013 4:01 pm 



Re: “The youth bulge is perfect if you want to go to war”

you’re also assuming that their all stupid enough to want to sign up for the military and die for big business, er I mean die for their country. Personally I think most of the people in my country are greedy lazy and ignorant. I care not to die for them. They can go to hell. The real hero is the first one out the back door when the gov comes knocking on the front door looking for cannon fodder.

You don’t just need a youth bulge. You need an ignorant and uneducated youth bulge. Religious and Nationalistic fanaticism helps too.

GregT on Thu, 19th Dec 2013 9:54 pm 



“You don’t just need a youth bulge. You need an ignorant and uneducated youth bulge. Religious and Nationalistic fanaticism helps too.”

Check, check, check, check and check. Add to the above, high young male unemployment rates, racial discrimination, and government propaganda ( The war on terror ), and the stage is set for war.