Just a few days ago, a friend of mine showed me three bright red stripes she had on her arm. It was the result of an unfortunate encounter with a jellyfish while swimming in the Mediterranean Sea. Today, it has become a normal occurrence; it seems to be normal that, when you swim in the sea, you have to maintain a nearly paranoid attitude and keep looking in all directions to avoid a painful brush with one of these creatures. It makes you envy the Australians who, after all, have only sharks to worry about when they swim.

And yet, this invasion of alien jellyfish it was not normal just a few decades ago. And, surely, it was not normal a century ago when the sea coast of the Mediterranean sea was the home of many local fishermen who would make a living with their catch. But, today, what would they be bringing back home? Only a boatload of jellyfish, but their nutritive properties are not the top. So, there has been a change, a big change in the fish population in the sea. And this change has a cause: it is overexploitation which has depleted the fisheries. The sea has been nearly emptied of fish, and that has generated a booming jellyfish population and of other invertebrates, such as crabs and lobsters whose numbers, once were kept in check by the fish.

So, I could have told to my friend that the painful red stripes on her arm were the result of the human tendency of overexploiting natural resources: oil, fish, or whatever, our tendency to maximize our immediate profit leads to destroying the resources that make us live. However, wherever people still manage to make a living out of something, mentioning the depletion of that something is normally a no-no. You just don’t say that. It is a long story that started when whalers swore that the fact that the couldn’t catch so many whales anymore was because the whales “had become shy” (as you can read in Starbuck’s “History of the American whale fishery,” 1876). In modern times, mentioning depletion and overexploitation is often met with scorn especially from economists who remain convinced that the market mechanisms can optimize all economic activities. For instance, Daniel Pauly and others published already in 1998 a paper titled “Fishing down Marine Food Webs” describing exactly the phenomenon that leads the sea to become depleted in fish and rich in invertebrates. But, as you may expect, this was defined as a myth. You feel like telling these people to take a good swim in the Mediterranean sea and experience by themselves the abundance of invertebrates, there.

Eventually, anything and everything can be debated, discussed, supported, or denied. But I think that myself and my coworkers gave a non-negligible contribution to understanding the overexploitation of marine fisheries when we applied to the available data the same system dynamic models that are used for peak oil. And we found that the models work. The cycle of growth and decline of many fisheries can be described by a simple model that assumes that the main factor that affects productivity is the abundance of the fish stock. And the model shows that the fish stock declines; fish is removed from the sea faster than the stock can be replenished by reproduction. Here are the data for the Japanese fishery that we presented in Delft.

So, depletion is real, depletion is now, and if a jellyfish stings you, you know why.

51 Comments on "Depletion is real, depletion is now, and if a jellyfish stings you, you know why"

ohanian on Mon, 1st Aug 2016 7:11 am 



This smelly fishy to me.

eugene on Mon, 1st Aug 2016 8:16 am 



Evidence of depletion of everything is everywhere. At 74, I can tell my personal tales of depletion in northern Minnesota. I lived in Alaska and would, routinely, go talk to old folks about “how did it used to be”. In fact, I have my own depletion stories of Alaska as well.

Don Stewart on Mon, 1st Aug 2016 8:58 am 



Ugo
I am still making my way through Nick Lane’s The Vital Question: Energy, Evolution, and the Origins of Complex Life.

Page 231 and following: ‘What does all this mean? It means, astonishing, that mitochondria ALONE can explain the evolution of multicellular organisms that have anisogamy (sperm and eggs), uniparental inheritance, and a germline, in which female germ cells are sequestered early in development–which together form the basis for all sexual differences between males and females.’

On page 233: ‘But my arguments that mitochondria really are the hub of physiology are prone to make some medical researchers cross; the charge is that I lack a properly balanced perspective. Look at any human cell down a microscope, and you will see a wonderful assembly of working parts, of which the mitochondria are just one cog. The view from evolution sees mitochondria as equal partners in the origin of complex life. All eukaryotic traits -all cell physiology- evolved in the ensuing tug of war between these two partners.’ To be continued

Don Stewart on Mon, 1st Aug 2016 9:06 am 



Ugo
Second part of comment.

My first comment is that people who insist on looking at all the piece parts down the microscope (the children of the medical doctors) and rejecting overarching explanations such as the recent explanation offered by Arnoux (based on the work of Hill) will likely point out a lot of interesting facts, but will not deliver a convincing explanation for the whole pattern we can see.

The second comment is that, just as there has been an evolutionary struggle involving the mitochondria and the host cell, there is a continuous struggle between Adrian Bejan’s Constructal Law and the Law of Depletion. In the case of fish, the process of fishing gets more and more efficient from the point of view of the humans (more deadly from the point of view of the fish), winning lots of battles, while depletion finally wins the war.

I think the preponderance of the evidence is that the Hill/ Arnoux analysis is correct in terms of Fossil Energy. Focusing on all the parts we can see down the microscope runs the risk of distracting us from the most vitally important points.

Don Stewart

ghung on Mon, 1st Aug 2016 10:20 am 



“It makes you envy the Australians who, after all, have only sharks to worry about when they swim.”

I guess Ugo hasn’t heard of the box jellyfishes. Wikipedia:

“In Australia, fatalities are most often perpetrated by the largest species of this class of jellyfish, Chironex fleckeri. Angel Yanagihara of the University of Hawaii’s Department of Tropical Medicine found the venom causes cells to become porous enough to allow potassium leakage, causing hyperkalemia, which can lead to cardiovascular collapse and death as quickly as within 2 to 5 minutes….”

Stay TF out of the water.

PracticalMaina on Mon, 1st Aug 2016 10:31 am 



Yeah ghung, and saltwater crocks, any huge predator that can follow you from in the surf to on the land is not on my list of critters to swim with.

Kenz300 on Mon, 1st Aug 2016 11:06 am 



Too many people……….create too much pollution and demand too many resources….

China made great progress in moving its people out of poverty…….one reason was slowing population growth…..

If you can not provide for yourself you can not provide for a child.

CLIMATE CHANGE, declining fish stocks, droughts, floods, air water and land pollution, poverty, water and food shortages all stem from the worlds worst environmental problem……. OVER POPULATION.

Yet the world adds 80 million more mouths to feed, clothe, house and provide energy and water for every year… this is unsustainable… and is a big part of the Climate Change problem

Birth Control Permanent Methods: Learn About Effectiveness

http://www.emedicinehealth.com/birth_control_permanent_methods/article_em.htm

Kenz300 on Mon, 1st Aug 2016 11:06 am 



Too many people……….create too much pollution and demand too many resources….

China made great progress in moving its people out of poverty…….one reason was slowing population growth…..

If you can not provide for yourself you can not provide for a child.

CLIMATE CHANGE, declining fish stocks, droughts, floods, air water and land pollution, poverty, water and food shortages all stem from the worlds worst environmental problem……. OVER POPULATION.

Yet the world adds 80 million more mouths to feed, clothe, house and provide energy and water for every year… this is unsustainable… and is a big part of the Climate Change problem

Birth Control Permanent Methods: Learn About Effectiveness

http://www.emedicinehealth.com/birth_control_permanent_methods/article_em.htm

shortonoil on Mon, 1st Aug 2016 11:09 am 



Dr. Charles Hall has graciously invited the The Hill’s Group to summit a paper on the Etp Model to the Journal BioPhysical Economics and Resource Quality. Considering his recent publication of Dr. Louis Arnoux’s analysis on his http://cassandralegacy.blogspot.in/2016/07/some-reflections-on-twilight-of-oil-age.html
we strongly suspect that the invitation was initiated by Dr. Bardi.

If this is true we would like to publicly thank Dr. Bardi.

http://www.thehillsgroup.org/

Dredd on Mon, 1st Aug 2016 11:19 am 



The same jelly fish phenomenon is developing where king COD once swam of the coast of New England, USA.

You can be put in jail for complaining about it (A Paper From Hansen et al. Is Now Open For Discussion – 3).

Once upon a time there was Solient Green, now there is Prevagen (ibid).

Apneaman on Mon, 1st Aug 2016 11:28 am 



short, i hope you submit that paper. I can’t wait to see marmi lose it after that.

Plantagenet on Mon, 1st Aug 2016 11:53 am 



Short

Congrats on the invitation from Dr. Hall to publish your research in a peer-reviewed journal.

I suggest to get more exposure for your model you also write a general interest article on the Etp model for Wikipedia. There is currently no mention of your model and its implications there.

Cheers!

Apneaman on Mon, 1st Aug 2016 12:07 pm 



Life on planet earth is depleting.

Whale sharks, winghead sharks, Bornean orangutans, and addax antelopes slide towards extinction – ‘We are witnessing in real time the extinction of iconic and once-plentiful species’

http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2016/07/whale-sharks-winghead-sharks-bornean.html

Think about your troubles

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0te3QPwbqyc

JuanP on Mon, 1st Aug 2016 12:14 pm 



Jellyfish will inherit the oceans and saltwater seas. They are already taking over. In the two places where I have first hand knowledge, Florida and Uruguay, the jellyfish problem has been worsening for over a decade. Crocs and sharks will not be a problem because they will most likely be hunted to extinction. In Florida crocs only survived because they are a protected species. Once that protection is gone as we collapse they won’t last a year.

Apneaman on Mon, 1st Aug 2016 12:27 pm 



Juan, the jellies are 600 million years old and have survived the other 5 mass extinctions and all the smaller ones to. Bring it on bitches!

Plantagenet on Mon, 1st Aug 2016 12:35 pm 



There are so many jellyfish in Australia that in some seasons snorkelers and and even swimmers have to wear a very lightweight nylon wetsuit.

I’ve still got mine back in the gear room somewhere.

yoshua on Mon, 1st Aug 2016 12:44 pm 



The peak oil price from 2008 is falling and falling towards zero. The oil price dipped below $40 today. The dice never lies.

bs on Mon, 1st Aug 2016 1:51 pm 



Invertebrates are a plague on this planet. They have overpopulated, polluted and spread disease for far too long. Gotta catch them all and feed them to the vertebrates. Now thats real permaculture.

Anonymous on Mon, 1st Aug 2016 2:51 pm 



So, are you saying we are in a jellyfish glut now plantafool?

energy investor on Mon, 1st Aug 2016 7:05 pm 



Anon,

In Northern Australian waters there have always been “stingers” that means your children should always wear wet-suits when swimming….whether inside or outside the shark nets.

Unfortunately the land of Oz has plenty of snakes ranging from pythons to deadly venomous varieties(the olive brown sea snake lives in salt water and is hugely venomous), spiders on land, sharks, salt water crocs, and box jellyfish. All can be fatal. There are other jellyfish that can sting and cause pain but the box jellyfish sting can often be fatal.

There are other species such as sting rays, but you need to be unlucky to get spiked by one.

Most fatal of all is an Australian motor vehicle.

Jellyfish in most places are increasing in numbers as their natural predators are being pruned or fished out.

The nastiest trend isn’t the loss of fish species but the attack on Southern Ocean krill as the Chinese and Russian factory ships take aim at them for protein. This ocean stripping is already killing everything from sea birds, penguins, seals etc to whales.

Sissyfuss on Mon, 1st Aug 2016 8:54 pm 



If we replace all fauna with hominids, what shall we eat? Uh Oh.

Apneaman on Mon, 1st Aug 2016 8:58 pm 



energy investor, I always thought the most poisonous creature from Australia was Rupert Murdoch. Y’all retard Ozzy denier club looking doubly fucking stupid now eh? Everything is dying around them and they still denying.

Massive mangrove die-off on Gulf of Carpentaria worst in the world, says expert

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jul/11/massive-mangrove-die-off-on-gulf-of-carpentaria-worst-in-the-world-says-expert

Dying down in merican denier land waters too.

NOAA: Mass die-off at marine sanctuary off Louisiana, Texas

http://www.nola.com/environment/index.ssf/2016/07/noaa_mass_die-off_at_marine_sa.html

One of my favorite day dreams is imagining the look of terror and panic on all the fox news and friends retard deniers faces when it finally sinks in that it’s game over for the humans and they were used like a $10 crack whore by their conservatard overlords. I hope ole Rupert hangs on for awhile so he can see the fruits of his labours wipe out his grandkids. I figure propaganda King Murdoch’s PR machine helped speed up the destruction by at least a couple of decades – maybe more.

Apneaman on Mon, 1st Aug 2016 9:15 pm 



As Clouds Head for the Poles, Time to Prepare for Food and Water Shocks

“Now a new study in the journal Nature provides some of the first evidence that this widely-predicted phenomenon – the movement of clouds and rainfall from the mid-latitudes towards the North and South poles — is already taking place. Just like the retreat of glaciers and polar sea ice, now clouds and rain are retreating poleward.

This will have huge implications for agricultural production, industrial and energy output, and municipal water provisioning. Many irrigated agricultural areas are already facing water stress. The climate-driven shift of clouds and rain – known as Hadley Cell expansion – will put those areas under even greater stress in the future. Rain-fed agriculture, which many poor people depend upon, will also suffer as a result of reduced rainfall in the mid-latitude regions.”

http://www.wri.org/blog/2016/07/clouds-head-poles-time-prepare-food-and-water-shocks

Apneaman on Mon, 1st Aug 2016 9:19 pm 



‘Ecosystem engineers’ responsible for first mass extinction

“There is a powerful analogy between the Earth’s first mass extinction and what is happening today,” Darroch said. “The end-Ediacaran extinction shows that the evolution of new behaviors can fundamentally change the entire planet, and today we humans are the most powerful ‘ecosystems engineers’ ever known.”

http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Ecosystem_engineers_responsible_for_first_mass_extinction_999.html

Go Speed Racer on Mon, 1st Aug 2016 11:12 pm 



can’t we scoop up all the jellyfish, and make gasoline out of them?
:O)

Tagio on Mon, 1st Aug 2016 11:18 pm 



Apneaman
Re rainfall moving pole-ward, Loki’s revenge links to some articles predicting the tropics will be in serious trouble starting as early as 2020

Boat on Mon, 1st Aug 2016 11:30 pm 



This is an example of a talking point loop of the same old crap. Be honest, who ever said the that oil wasn’t depleting.

tagio on Mon, 1st Aug 2016 11:46 pm 



Ap, here’s the link I was referring to re: tropics = toast, fwiw. Not a great article; poor on content and explanation, long on conclusory statements.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/eric-zuesse/climate-catastrophe-to-hi_b_4089746.html

Davy on Tue, 2nd Aug 2016 6:50 am 



One point should be extrapolated from this profound article “The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability” that Huff post references and that is a collapsed tropics is a collapsed everywhere else in regards to the global economy. The global economy cannot survive such an occurrence. The nations of the tropics may be less significant as a vital node in the global economy but taken together they are economy killers by a long shot. The global economy is hyper sensitive to such macro occurrences. The global economy has been so robust in the past to shocks because of growth and shocks have only been small. Degrowth and the shocks associated with a failing tropics represents an event process beyond the scope of adaptation for the global economy.

The big variable is timing with degree and duration. The catastrophic collapse will begin and be a process. It will likely not be an event although we could have an event-process of compression of severe conditions in a short time frame of a year or less. The collapse of globalism is a process now and may have an event where trade and exchange stop which is catastrophic to all delocalized local dependent on a global economy. If the tropics begins to collapse the global economy will collapse in lockstep. Trade and exchange will drop too low to feed billions and a die off will ensue.

This article will be read by northerners and they will think they have more time but the reality is their time will only be related to less climate impact it will not be a time out on generalized collapse. Generalized collapse is related to climate, economy, and peak oil. These factors are mutual and interactive. There are many other contributing factors and possible break point influences for example global war but it is climate, economy, and peak oil that are the three macro foundational areas of human civilization that are and will be the primary drivers of a civilization’s process of collapse.

Davy on Tue, 2nd Aug 2016 8:49 am 



More and more climate change issues are going mainstream:

“Rising Sea Levels Could Cost U.S. Homeowners Close to $1 Trillion”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-02/rising-sea-levels-could-cost-u-s-homeowners-close-to-1-trillion

“Climate Change Is Hell on Alaska’s Formerly Frozen Highways”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2016-08-02/the-alaskan-highway-is-literally-melting

JuanP on Tue, 2nd Aug 2016 9:59 am 



“Crude oil slips below $40”
https://www.rt.com/business/354281-oil-price-drop-supply/

Boat on Tue, 2nd Aug 2016 11:19 am 



JuanP,

Do you even know why?

Boat on Tue, 2nd Aug 2016 11:19 am 



JuanP,

Do you even know why?

Apneaman on Tue, 2nd Aug 2016 11:26 am 



tagio, it’s a huffpost article, so the political team blaming and cherry picking of big FF as the sole guilty party is par for the course for an America/western Liberal rag. Rarely do I read the huffpost and that piece is 3 years old.

The Tropics are no longer a carbon sink. They are now a source. The humans have filled up many former carbon sinks. Positive feedbacks unleashed.

Big FF and their climate denying Republican puppets are guilty of many things (string em up?) in relation to corruption, lying and denying that no one else is, but as a group liberals have done nothing but talk and many are FF corrupted as well. Most of the big Green NGO’s are just corporate corrupted gate keepers. Obama, their hero, talks a great AGW game (knows his stuff), but look at his track record with FF in his 8 years. I mostly look at the big metrics, like the Keeling curve. Goes up every year since I was born same as consumption and population and ocean acidification and species extinctions. All talk all around. Keep talking humans – times short for your kind.

JuanP on Tue, 2nd Aug 2016 12:13 pm 



Boat, I am glad to see that you managed to write five words and complete a question without making a mistake. Please share with us your deep understanding of the issues involved. It is time for a good laugh! Will your answer prove that you will not have to face collapse, need, or deprivation before you die?

Have you done anything useful today or are you still a complete waste of good Oxygen? I have already harvested more fruits and vegetables than I can eat, weeded one of the gardens, saved a bunch of Monarch caterpillars, gifted seeds, and given good advice to a fellow gardener!

Boat on Tue, 2nd Aug 2016 1:50 pm 



Your like greggiet, no substance but lots of insults. Lots of opinion but no effort towards a plausible case made.
PS Seeds are free. Why are you buying them?

PracticalMaina on Tue, 2nd Aug 2016 2:30 pm 



You better not be trying to save any of your friends at Monsanto seeds boat, they will come and violate you, legally and sexually.

GregT on Tue, 2nd Aug 2016 5:17 pm 



Boat,

Juan asked you to “Please share with us your deep understanding of the issues involved.”

I am also patiently waiting for your expert analysis.

And Kevin, seeds are not free, unless somebody gifts them to you. One more thing that you’re going to learn all about, soon enough, the hard way.

JuanP on Tue, 2nd Aug 2016 5:18 pm 



Boat, It is “You are” or “you’re”, not “your”. I already taught you that last week! And, it is “lots of opinions” not “lots of opinion”. But, don’t worry, I will keep teaching you how to write in your own language since you called me an illiterate and an innumerate, which I find hilarious coming from you. Look up that one in the dictionary; it means very funny! LOL!

Where did I say that I purchased the seeds I gifted? Nowhere! Do you know what the verb to gift means? I will give you a clue: it doesn’t mean to purchase! Your reading comprehension seems to be as bad as your writing and math skills! LOL!

Did you do anything useful today or are you still a complete waste of perfectly good Oxygen like you were yesterday and have, obviously, been all your life?

Now try to write to write another sentence without making a mistake, fucking retard!

JuanP on Tue, 2nd Aug 2016 5:39 pm 



And, Boat, many of the seeds I share were harvested by me from my own plants and plants I come across, but not all of them. I share seeds with hundreds of people so I buy some, too. The seeds I shared this morning were Sunn Hemp seeds and were, as a matter of fact, purchased online. I buy 50 pounds of them every year and I give most of them away; I only need a couple of pounds for my own personal use. Sunn Hemp is a cover crop. I do let some of the Sunn Hemp I grow flower and go to seed to learn from the experience, but it would make no sense to me to save 50 pounds of seeds because I can get a better ROI from growing more food instead.

I am a weirdo who goes through life carrying a backpack full of useful tools and things that I use to help other people on a daily basis in many different ways. I am always ready to serve! One of the things I carry around in my backpack is a one gallon ziplock bag which contains little baggies of every plant species I grow so I can gift them. I have said many times that I am a real life freak and I am very, very proud of it! LOL!

JuanP on Tue, 2nd Aug 2016 5:43 pm 



That should have said “… little baggies of seeds from every plant species …”.

Boat on Tue, 2nd Aug 2016 8:07 pm 



My dad was a preacher and had big enough gardens to not only feed the church but give away 4-5 small trailer loads to a local neighborhood.
My brother, I and dad were the labor. You can grow a lot in less than an acre if you know what you’re doing.
When I got my first decent job at 18, having a garden made no economic sense. You come out ahead by working.
I will plant herbs, one tomato plant, 2 jalapeno plants, 2 zucchini, 2 squash, 2 cucumber and 1 habanero. I average one hr per week labor. I don’t like it, not interested by it, just do it. lol

GregT on Tue, 2nd Aug 2016 10:24 pm 



Boat,

You yourself do not make economic sense. Gambling money away that you owe to somebody else is not only senseless, it is downright stupid. Most people that are well off don’t get that way by working Kevin, they get that way by using their smarts. Something that you are seriously lacking.

“I don’t like it, not interested by it, just do it.”

if you don’t like it, you’re not interested in it, and it makes no economic sense to you, then why do you do it? Again Boat, you make absolutely zero sense.

Brad on Tue, 2nd Aug 2016 11:37 pm 



“My dad was a preacher”

Boat descends from-hardcore krissies, the people of the Other Cheek, the down-with-us corrupters of the West, the Untergang des Abendlandes. The Friday’s, always on the lookout for a Robinson Crusoe to submit to.

Makes sense.

https://youtu.be/uSv4vBcFyvo

Christianity: the religion of cowards.

Futilitist on Wed, 3rd Aug 2016 1:38 am 



I guess I am here now, having been banned everywhere else.

Congratulations to BWHill. The validity of Etp model deserves to be widely recognized, before it is too late.

—Futilitist

Apneaman on Wed, 3rd Aug 2016 2:20 am 



Hey, Futilitist. I’ve heard so much about from your buddy Truth. Welcome to the freak show.

marmico on Wed, 3rd Aug 2016 2:49 am 



The Turdburger may be on the review committee for the ETP paper submission. ROTFLMFAO.

BioPhysical Economics and Resource Quality Editorial Board

JuanP on Wed, 3rd Aug 2016 6:40 am 



Boat, You are a relatively normal modern American working man, so it is reasonable that you don’t like growing food because most of them don’t. Of the hundreds of organic food growers I’ve met through the years only a handful are American working class men. I think that this is a consequence of the conditioning that you have been subjected to your whole life. Most contemporary American working men don’t regard growing veggies as a manly occupation.

My background is very different because I was born a one percenter, became a spoiled brat, and never in my life had to work for a living, though I chose to do that for 30 years. But, I never had to worry about money in my life because I’ve always had more than I needed. This afforded me the possibility to only do jobs I liked, work only as much as I wanted to, and quitting whenever I lost interest in those jobs. Now, I am basically retired at 47 and only do volunteer and pro bono work to help others, be productive, and learn more about my interests.

We obviously won’t agree on much with such different backgrounds. I will be more patient with you now that I know that you are a preacher’s son. At least your father taught you something about growing food and sharing with others, that is good. A pity you will have forgotten most of what you learned back then by now.

JuanP on Wed, 3rd Aug 2016 7:03 am 



Marmi, What do you find so funny?

Futilitist on Wed, 3rd Aug 2016 7:34 am 



Thanks, Apneaman.

It’s great to be somewhere.

As far as Truth goes, he runs my fan club and does pre-publicity for all my appearances.

—Futilitist