Peak Oil is You
Donate Bitcoins ;-) or Paypal :-)
Page added on August 5, 2016
Can the World Sustain 9 Billion People by 2050?
The world’s population is topsy-turvy, and its exponential and uneven growth could have disastrous consequences if we aren’t ready for it. Humanity recently hit a benchmark, a population of 7.9 billion in 2013. It is expected to reach 8.5 billion by 2030, and 9.6 billion by 2050. If that weren’t enough, consider 11.2 billion in 2100. Most of the growth is supposed to come from nine specific countries: India, Pakistan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Nigeria, the United States, and Indonesia.
It isn’t fertility that is driving growth, but rather longer lifespans. World population growth peaked in the 1960s, and has been dropping steadily since the ’70s. 1.24% was the growth rate a decade ago, annually. Today, it is 1.18% per year. Populations in developed countries have slowed to a trickle. Here, it has gotten too expensive to have a child for a large segment of the populace, particularly in the wake of the Great Recession, when young people have to invest a lot of time in education and building a career, spending their most fertile years in lecture halls and office cubicles. Although overall, fertility has been dropping worldwide, the report says researchers used the “low-variant” scenario of population growth. It could be higher.
World population growth by continent.
Meanwhile, the enormous baby boomer generation is aging, and public health officials warn that a “Silver Tsunami” is coming. Worldwide, those age 60 and over are expected to double by 2050, and triple by 2100. As workers age, fewer young people are around to replace them, and that means less taxpayers for Medicare and abroad, for socialized medicine. In Europe, a staggering 34% of the population is projected to be over 60 by 2050. What’s more, Europe’s population is forecast to plummet 14%. It is already struggling, as is Japan, to provide for its aging population. But the birth deficit is likely to exacerbate the problem.
In the U.S., the number of Alzheimer’s patients alone is expected to bankrupt Medicare, if no cure is found, and the program remains as it is today. “Developed countries have largely painted themselves into a corner now,” according to Carl Haub. He is the senior demographer at the Population Reference Bureau. The robot revolution may not come soon enough.
Many developed nations are struggling to support an aging population.
According to a U.N. report, most of the growth will come from developing countries, with over half projected to take place in Africa, the poorest continent financially, whose resources are already under pressure. 15 highly fertile countries, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa, are expected to increase the number of children per woman at a rate of a little over five per cent, or five per female. Nigeria’s population will likely surpass that of the U.S. by 2050, becoming the third largest in terms of demographics.
The population in developed countries is expected to remain unchanged, holding steady at 1.3 billion. Some developing countries such as Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia, India, and China are seeing a swift fall in the average number of children per woman, which is expected to continue. This may be due to better economic prospects. We often think of China as the world’s most populous nation, but India is set to reach them by 2022, when both nations will contain 1.45 billion citizens. Afterward, India is predicted to surpass China. As India’s population grows, China’s will shrink.
India’s population is expected to surpass China’s by 2022.
As far as life expectancy, it is expected to increase in both developed and developing nations. Globally, life expectancy will likely be 76 years on average in the 2045-2050 period. It will reach 82 years of age in 2095-2100, if nothing changes. Nearing the end of the century, those in developing nations could expect to live to 81, while in developed nations, 89 will be the norm. Yet, there are concerns that the developing world will suffer even more than today due to this phenomenon.
“The concentration of population growth in the poorest countries presents its own set of challenges, making it more difficult to eradicate poverty and inequality, to combat hunger and malnutrition, and to expand educational enrollment and health systems,” according to John Wilmoth. He is the Director of the Population Division in the UN’s Department of Economic and Social Affairs.
Another worry is resource depletion. Minerals, fossil fuels, timber, and water may become scarce in several regions of the world. Since wars are often fought over resources, and water use is expected to increase 70-90% by mid-century, without improved farming methods and smarter use, water may become the next oil, in terms of driving nations into violent conflict. The world’s water in certain regions is already strained. India and China for instance have already fought two wars over water claims.
Climate change is also likely to eat up more arable land, contributing to fears of food scarcity, as well as the loss of biodiversity, which is likely to occur at a faster rate. To help tamp down the world population, UN researchers suggest investing in reproductive health and family planning, particularly in developing nations.
This report was made possible by 233 countries providing demographic data, as well as 2010 population censuses.
57 Comments on "Can the World Sustain 9 Billion People by 2050?"
ghung on Fri, 5th Aug 2016 7:19 pm
“Another worry is resource depletion. Minerals, fossil fuels, timber, and water may become scarce in several regions of the world. Since wars are often fought over resources, and water use is expected to increase 70-90% by mid-century, without improved farming methods and smarter use, water may become the next oil, in terms of driving nations into violent conflict. The world’s water in certain regions is already strained. India and China for instance have already fought two wars over water claims.
Climate change is also likely to eat up more arable land, contributing to fears of food scarcity, as well as the loss of biodiversity, which is likely to occur at a faster rate. To help tamp down the world population, UN researchers suggest investing in reproductive health and family planning, particularly in developing nations.”
Jeez… Talk about an exercise in minimization. The “world” (planet) can’t sustain the current human population considering current collective human behavior. Ecosystems are collapsing everywhere. And; “Climate change is also likely to eat up more arable land…” Ya think?
JuanP on Fri, 5th Aug 2016 8:06 pm
This is another one I skipped! I no longer waste my time reading articles about how many people there will be on the planet in the future. The planet already has way too many people and it will continue having way too many people for the rest of my life. Who cares how many billions we will be? If we are talking billions we are screwed no matter what!
Apneaman on Fri, 5th Aug 2016 8:12 pm
Worst flooding since 1998 leaves US$33 billion economic toll in China: Aon’s Impact Forecasting
“Considerable damage to the agricultural sector was also prevalent with an estimated 18 million acres of cropland damaged by floodwater. Total combined economic losses were estimated at US$33 billion, with at least US$28 billion occurring in the Yangtze River Basin. The China Insurance Regulatory Commission cited insurance claims payouts representing less than 2% of the economic cost, with most of the claims from lost agriculture.”
http://www.canadianunderwriter.ca/insurance/worst-flooding-since-1998-leaves-us33-billon-economic-toll-china-aons-impact-forecasting-1004097806/
Apneaman on Fri, 5th Aug 2016 8:22 pm
I remember listening to some superstar econo-priest say we can support billions more because the more people there are the more brain power there will be to solve all humanity’s unsolvable predicaments. So, while we are waiting for these unborn geniuses to arrive, the deal is to keep consuming, driving and flying. Everything will be fixed by the next generation. No worries kids. You’re in good hand with Tard State.
Heat wave takes its toll on some eastern Carolina crops
” While temperatures may not have been as hot the past few days, some farmers say the heat wave we just endured has taken its toll on their crops.
Westley Dail, owner of Dail Farms in Beulaville, says that they work the corn fields in the spring and plant during the first week of April. They try to finish up planting the first week in May – but even with optimal planting, that couldn’t help their corn crops from the scorching heat we’ve had this summer.
Dail says the ideal heat for many crops is about 80 degrees, and with temperatures above that, he says about half of their corn crop was damaged during its pollination period.”
http://www.witn.com/content/news/Heat-wave-takes-its-toll-on-some-eastern-Carolina-crops-389246772.html
Texas power demand to hit 2016 peak amid heat wave: ERCOT
http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa-texas-power-heatwave-idUKKCN10F202
LaFLECHE: Heat wave bakes the poor
http://www.stcatharinesstandard.ca/2016/08/04/lafleche-heat-wave-bakes-the-poor
eugene on Fri, 5th Aug 2016 8:31 pm
The only thing truly limitless is our ability to fantasize.
Davy on Fri, 5th Aug 2016 8:57 pm
What is interesting about this article is not what is in it. What is in it is the same regurgitations of denial and indifference. It amounts to a tragedy we are all going to experience soon but one not acknowledged. What is it about articles today with the lack of passion for in your face danger? It is almost as if there is an unwritten rule danger cannot be communicated as danger. More to the point there is this attitude of no danger just challenges. Challenges are fun and hint at succeeding and accomplishing great results. This further reminds me of drug commercial today which I despise. In these drug commercials there is this happiness and optimism associated with a sickness. This article is talking about a huge problem with no solution as if it is not a problem but a situation with plenty of options.
The population issues is a ticking time bomb that will prevent any remediation of any of our largest problems. Population is the underlying spoiler and yet mainstream media is unconcerned. It is way off the list of concerns. The other issue with articles like this is their regularity and redundancy. They extrapolate the same old curves and talk about mid and end of century as if we are most certainly going to get there. There is no even a hint of collapse. These population articles are one of the most descriptive examples of our delusional societal narrative. If we can’t see the impending doom in these population numbers then we are beyond hope.
Sissyfuss on Fri, 5th Aug 2016 9:22 pm
To me there seems to be a correlation between having children and being in denial that overpopulation can even exist. Davy is the exception that proves the rule. Normal people cannot see babies as being the cause of deforestation, ocean acidification, climate chaos, or a 6th mass extinction. The disconnect is too great to overcome. Pity.
Davy on Fri, 5th Aug 2016 9:29 pm
“Deadly Climate Change From Nuclear War: A threat to human existence”
http://www.nucleardarkness.org/warconsequences/deadlyclimatechangefromnuclearwar/
Boat on Fri, 5th Aug 2016 10:17 pm
Davy,
I have long thought it would take just a handful of nukes over large cities to bring down the entire world.
makati1 on Fri, 5th Aug 2016 10:51 pm
I too did not read this fairy tale. I doubt we will hit 9 billion ever. Maybe not even 8 billion.
Why?
1. Climate change (heat deaths, tropical diseases moving north, famine across the entire world)
2. Wars of increasing severity and number of deaths increasing exponentially.
3. Reversal of the life span in many Western countries when the medical system collapses during the financial collapse coming.
4. Dropping fertility rates caused by many diseases not seen yet. (Think about what a true pandemic of Zika Virus would do if it became as common as the cold.)
And reasons I probably missed or have not happened … yet,
Apneaman on Fri, 5th Aug 2016 10:52 pm
Boat, their have been hundreds and hundreds of nuke war scenarios/simulations/games run by The USSR, NATO, Rand corp,US military and many more and every single one shows that once the first nuke flys, then they all go. Mutually Assured Destruction. It’ll get everyone. Ever see that movie “The Road”? Heavy Duty man.
http://putlocker.is/watch-the-road-2009-online-free-putlocker.html
Go Speed Racer on Fri, 5th Aug 2016 11:09 pm
Nine Billin fat stupid rude tattoo’d shitheads, throwing pop cans out the window of their monster truck. And we thought it would take space aliens to destroy the planet.
Brat on Sat, 6th Aug 2016 12:42 am
No doubt in anticipation of future electoral growth sectors, Clinton gave an extremely rare press conference for black and latino journalists only. Questions handed in in advance to avoid difficult questions.
World population growing to 9 billion is absolutely unproblematic, they can all come to America, where Clinton, Kenz300, Boat and apneaman (something to do will algebra 1000 years ago) will be welcoming them.
GregT on Sat, 6th Aug 2016 1:24 am
“where Clinton, Kenz300, Boat and apneaman will be welcoming them.”
Hmmm, one of these things is not like the others. Whichever one could it be Arthur?
onlooker on Sat, 6th Aug 2016 2:40 am
Agree with what Ghung, Juan and Mak said
theedrich on Sat, 6th Aug 2016 3:24 am
Not enough subhumans! More are needed, saith the enthroned Negroid. Genosuicidal White academics everywhere join in the chorus: White civilization must be drowned with darkies — nine billion, eleven billion, whatever it takes. The “opinion-leading” mass media do their part by showing negrified types whenever possible: as news anchors, as advertising fakes posing as real people, as participants in White gatherings and, of course, as screamers and screechers about White guilt. We greedily welcome melanin-rich overflows from the Middle East and North Africa (“MENA”), from India, Indonesia, Latin America …. Whiteland must be submerged forever.
The Demonic Party’s pterodactyl, backed by the cloacal ape not yet flushed down the cosmic commode, demands the building of more “bridges” to increase the torrent of lower primates now flooding our lands. The mindless masses agree with her. We must have more swamplings to annihilate the edifice of White culture and civilization. The synagogues are delirious with joy over their coming success as they see Trump, the last hope of the White man, go down in flames.
As the above article states, “most of the growth will come from developing countries, with over half projected to take place in Africa.” The NAACP and the Southern Poverty Law Center, along with countless churches, politicians and other sob-story-based organizations are drooling at the prospect of the money and power about to flow into their hands. Only the circumpolar regions might remain for Whitey as the fun-filled party implodes.
In previous extinctions, the earth still had reserves upon which life could rebuild. That is no longer the case, given all of the poisons unleashed by the power-mad rulers and the “save-everybody” quasi-religious types. In theory we could be saved by some pandemic or massive war wiping out virtually all of the darklings, but that is pure imagination. Instead, we will be governed by a flying reptile who will guarantee earth’s doom.
peakyeast on Sat, 6th Aug 2016 6:06 am
@Go Speed Racer: Obviously you havent read David Icke “The biggest secret”.
I tell you its worth reading ! !
I was absolutely flabbergasted and almost died of laughter reading that book !
An all-time greatest book.
Brat on Sat, 6th Aug 2016 6:59 am
Currently in the train from Rostock to Duesseldorf in overcrowded regional trains, the only way to travel and take my bike with me. Large number of young male Arabs in upbeat mood in the midst of meek Germans, a nation thorouhgly ruined by Anglos and their masters, together the largest disaster in the history of the European race.
Peakoil can’t happen fast enough. Total breakdown of social order, financial collapse, warlords, armed ethnic groups and Russia are the only way out. China attacking the US fleet in the SCS would be wonderful as well.
Safe on Sat, 6th Aug 2016 9:20 am
There will always be a correction for every overshoot. It won’t be pretty.
peakyeast on Sat, 6th Aug 2016 10:03 am
edrich: If and when a new intelligent species arises – It will far into the future and there will be plentiful of resources again.
Even if there is no fossil fuels – there is still plenty of sunlight and radioactive materials.
I could even imagine it will be a help that there is no fossil fuels since they wont as easily be able to overshoot to the same degree as the stupid cancer monkeys did (apneamans description) before they get clever enough to use more sustainable energy sources.
Besides I dont understand your obsession with punking black people. Its not like the white are doing something better with their resources and your imagines boundless intelligence. Look at the americans that had it all – albeit stolen by genocide – but they wasted all the time and energy away on “hedonics” and powermongering.
Now if that isnt paramount stupidity I dont know what is…
peakyeast on Sat, 6th Aug 2016 10:06 am
oh – and for Davys mental stabilitys sake I will add: Europeans to the Americans..
Apneaman on Sat, 6th Aug 2016 11:22 am
Brat, I won’t be welcoming anyone to America since, I am not an American and I don’t live in America. Try a littler harder to pay attention retard. I’ve spotted a pattern. Why do so many of you Euro trash boys come on all these english speaking web sites and bitch and moan about your little European problems? Do you think anyone in the Anglosphere gives a shit? They don’t and there will not be another bail out with blood and money, so figure it out for yourself this time.
Apneaman on Sat, 6th Aug 2016 11:35 am
Douch, …”Trump, the last hope of the White man..”
ROLFLMAO
Thanks.
Apparently we can’t recognize when something is beyond hope.
Alpine Goat on Sat, 6th Aug 2016 1:46 pm
Media zombie apneawoman still thinks that Anglosphere is a noble interventionist and a force for good in this world, together with their Soviet palls, now defunct. For you something is true if it was on tv. Why don’t you let you inform yourself by your countryman GregT, who understands historie and politieval reality much, much better than an anal porn addict like you.
I am almost home, meaning no longer able to use the train WiFi.
See you next time, perhaps.
Arthur
Apneaman on Sat, 6th Aug 2016 2:47 pm
Alpine Goat, why do you, whoever you are keep changing your name? You are really hung up on this anal porn thingy eh? Catholic and repressed? You need to deal with the Americans on that one too, since they produce the majority of the worlds porn (but no titty flash at halftime allowed). You bring porn up every time, but use a different handle. Are you a scared of porn or something? Do you have any idea how many people, not just guys, jerk off to porn everyday? Oh go ahead and tell us you don’t whack off – sure sure.
How you came to the conclusion that I think the anglosphere is a force for good is beyond me????? You another one who is not paying attention and firing from the hip based on a few key words. Go read a number of my comments and get back to me on the idea of any mythical “force for good” ever existing anywhere except in the humans stories. Fact remains that Canadians and Americans spilled their blood on European soil and that prevented many of you from having to live under the worst sort of authoritarian boot regardless of if it was ultimately self serving. You got to live under the corporate boot instead – way more toys. Fuck all y’all arrogant Eurotrash bitches. Go back to your slaughter fest, the 70 year recess is over. I do not care about your problems. Deal with it. I have my own to deal with – like bat shit crazy neighbours.
Futilitist on Sat, 6th Aug 2016 5:11 pm
THIS IS SUPER IMPORTANT. EVERYONE READ PLEASE THIS:
The Etp COVER UP continues. This is getting fucking ridiculous! I can’t post ANYWHERE!
I just got off the phone with Gail Tverburg. I called to ask her why my comment seemed to be stuck in “moderation”. She informed me that she really didn’t want to have a bunch of “comments about a stupid model”, her exact words. I said that since I was on the phone, perhaps I could help her to understand the model better. She said she really wasn’t interested and couldn’t understand why people wanted to bring it up. I said that I had never commented on her site before and that the only reason I did was because she brought the Etp model up in the first place. She then immediately said she had to go and hung up on me.
Here is the comment I tried to make that led to the phone call:
Stilgar Wilcox,
You said:
“Couldn’t reduced coal consumption from reduced demand for manuf. of products, simply be a negative feedback from declining net energy inherent in an all oil’s barrel of oil?”
Of course that is exactly the right answer. As the energy return from a barrel of oil has declined, all sorts of effects can be felt everywhere in the economy. The beauty of a physics model, as opposed to some sort of economic model, is that a physics model will actually give you an answer as to the root cause of the economic woes. Declining net energy. The Etp model charts the rising entropy in the oil production process. It explains why, and by how much, net energy is declining.
Gail says:
“We do indeed have a problem with falling world per capita energy consumption, but this problem comes from falling coal consumption–not because the energy involved in oil extraction is extremely high.”
I don’t think that is a very satisfying answer at all. Gail is basically saying that falling world per capita energy consumption is caused by falling coal consumption. That is basically saying nothing.
The answer provided by the Etp model is much more satisfying. All of Gail’s explanations are themselves explained by falling net energy, and the Etp model explains why net energy is falling in the first place. Not only that, but the Etp model is actually predictive! It continues to accurately forecast the price trajectory of oil.
[img]http://i1064.photobucket.com/albums/u363/Futilitist/Etp%20UPDATE_zpso4do1et2.jpg[/img]
—Futilitist
Gail is doing a very obvious hatchet job against the Etp model. Who is she really working for?
Also of great interest are the goings on at the peakoil.com forum. The Etp model thread has turned into a grotesque troll fest.
AdamB is posting correlation = causation graphs of stupid, unrelated things. I can’t do anything about it because I am permanently banned. They banned me, but AdamB gets to keep on posting his crap. Real quality forum.
http://peakoil.com/forums/the-etp-model-q-a-t70563-940.html
Peakoil.com is obviously a fake discussion forum. I wonder how long they will let me keep saying that here?
—Futilitist
Futilitist on Sat, 6th Aug 2016 5:14 pm
One more try:
THIS IS SUPER IMPORTANT. EVERYONE READ PLEASE THIS:
The Etp COVER UP continues. This is getting fucking ridiculous! I can’t post ANYWHERE!
I just got off the phone with Gail Tverburg. I called to ask her why my comment seemed to be stuck in “moderation”. She informed me that she really didn’t want to have a bunch of “comments about a stupid model”, her exact words. I said that since I was on the phone, perhaps I could help her to understand the model better. She said she really wasn’t interested and couldn’t understand why people wanted to bring it up. I said that I had never commented on her site before and that the only reason I did was because she brought the Etp model up in the first place. She then immediately said she had to go and hung up on me.
Here is the comment I tried to make that led to the phone call:
Stilgar Wilcox,
You said:
“Couldn’t reduced coal consumption from reduced demand for manuf. of products, simply be a negative feedback from declining net energy inherent in an all oil’s barrel of oil?”
Of course that is exactly the right answer. As the energy return from a barrel of oil has declined, all sorts of effects can be felt everywhere in the economy. The beauty of a physics model, as opposed to some sort of economic model, is that a physics model will actually give you an answer as to the root cause of the economic woes. Declining net energy. The Etp model charts the rising entropy in the oil production process. It explains why, and by how much, net energy is declining.
Gail says:
“We do indeed have a problem with falling world per capita energy consumption, but this problem comes from falling coal consumption–not because the energy involved in oil extraction is extremely high.”
I don’t think that is a very satisfying answer at all. Gail is basically saying that falling world per capita energy consumption is caused by falling coal consumption. That is basically saying nothing.
The answer provided by the Etp model is much more satisfying. All of Gail’s explanations are themselves explained by falling net energy, and the Etp model explains why net energy is falling in the first place. Not only that, but the Etp model is actually predictive! It continues to accurately forecast the price trajectory of oil.
[img]http://i1064.photobucket.com/albums/u363/Futilitist/Etp%20UPDATE_zpso4do1et2.jpg[/img]
—Futilitist
Gail is doing a very obvious hatchet job against the Etp model. Who is she really working for?
Also of great interest are the goings on at the peakoil.com forum. The Etp model thread has turned into a grotesque troll fest.
AdamB is posting correlation = causation graphs of stupid, unrelated things. I can’t do anything about it because I am permanently banned. They banned me, but AdamB gets to keep on posting his crap. Real quality forum.
http://peakoil.com/forums/the-etp-model-q-a-t70563-940.html
Peakoil.com is obviously a fake discussion forum. I wonder how long they will let me keep saying that here?
—Futilitist
Futilitist on Sat, 6th Aug 2016 5:18 pm
The only reason I was able to make the post above is that I am now using annoymox to avoid a hard IP block. This could be my last post ever.
I am banned from the internet.
Help.
—Futilitist
Futilitist on Sat, 6th Aug 2016 5:20 pm
PEAKOIL.COM is a fraud! Fuck you!
The internet is a fraud!
Collapse has begun. Run!
—Futilitist
Futilitist on Sat, 6th Aug 2016 5:22 pm
I was right.
They just blocked another comment!
IP switch test…
Whatever on Sat, 6th Aug 2016 5:26 pm
test
Whatever on Sat, 6th Aug 2016 5:27 pm
This is an outrage!
Whatever on Sat, 6th Aug 2016 5:29 pm
The IP block keeps track of every IP, user name, and email I use.
They are very afraid of me!
—Futilitist
Whatever on Sat, 6th Aug 2016 5:33 pm
This is how opinions are controlled.
Peakoil.com is a fake forum. The whole internet is fake.
Good luck, everyone.
FUCK PEAKOIL.COM
—Futilitist
Boat on Sat, 6th Aug 2016 9:21 pm
Brat on Sat, 6th Aug 2016 12:42 am
World population growing to 9 billion is absolutely unproblematic,
This is a complete untruth. I have explained countless times how immigration is a threat to sustainability for humans and adds to humanity’s largest threat, overpopulation.
GregT on Sun, 7th Aug 2016 12:24 am
“I have explained countless times how immigration is a threat to sustainability for humans and adds to humanity’s largest threat, overpopulation.”
More nonsense Boat. Humans aren’t immigrating from anywhere else in the universe, every single last one of us was born on this planet.
onlooker on Sun, 7th Aug 2016 2:49 am
It is time Americans saw themselves as part of the Human race. The US is a big reason why the world is the way it is. A combination of luck and ruthlessness has allowed the US to stay on top. And now some are blaming migration and overpopulation for the threat it poses. Right because humans were following their biological need to have sex and reproduce. Well as an American I will NOT put any blame on these unfortunate people. Especially because of what the US stands for and is
Whatever on Sun, 7th Aug 2016 3:23 am
onlooker,
Your name should be overlooker.
Thanks buddy.
—Futilitist
Whatever on Sun, 7th Aug 2016 3:25 am
I guess I am on ignore.
Conspirare—to breathe together.
—Futilitist
makati1 on Sun, 7th Aug 2016 3:36 am
onlooker, I agree, for what it is worth. The US could support 4-5 times its current population at a world average consumption of resources. That is well over a billions people. And no one would starve or go naked or be cold.
It is American greed that makes them think they can live the good life at other’s expense. An average resource consumption per capita would be about on the current level with China. And, I do not mean the China depicted in the US MSM ‘news’. I mean the China with an average per capita income of ~$15,000/year. Better than that of a minimum wage earner in the US.
The US is due for a huge surprise, I think.
Whatever on Sun, 7th Aug 2016 3:49 am
The Etp model COVER UP update:
My erasure from the internet continues. My last comment on the Doomstead Diner has resulted in all my posts now needing moderator approval.
Here is my last comment:
http://www.doomsteaddiner.net/forum/index.php/topic,4287.msg110474.html#msg110474
This happens on page 12. It is actually the second time I have been thrown into “moderation” on the thread.
The thread is on the Etp model. I happened to notice it hadn’t been touched in almost a year. I left my first comment at the top of page 2 and everyone argued with me relentlessly for 11 straight pages. The whole thing is very enlightening:
http://www.doomsteaddiner.net/forum/index.php/topic,4287.msg109788.html#msg109788
And if you do read the whole thing, you might begin to understand the Etp model, plus you will also understand that the Doomstead Diner is just another fake forum, like all the rest. You might begin to understand that there is an internet wide organized agenda against the Etp model.
Who runs the internet?
—Futilitist
peakyeast on Sun, 7th Aug 2016 5:55 am
We could be really really many – and living of insects, algae, and weeds. But that is not really a way anybody wants to go if they really try to imagine how that world would be like to live in….
Pretty sad that so many thinks its a “solution” to live like that.
observerbrb on Sun, 7th Aug 2016 6:06 am
Hello Futilitist, I don’t think there is a worldwide conspiracy against the ETP model.
Though I think it might be true (and so far oil prices are still tracking it amazingly), I also believe it’s fair if some disagree with it.
I mean, some people can feel that the model is overlooking some factors, others that is simply not true. I guess we will see the final answer in the coming years.
I think you have done a great job defending this model, but your style can make other people, who have reasonable doubts about the model, feel intimidated. I am not saying again that I am defending your ban because I wouldn’t have banned you, but if you are defending such an unpleasant outcome (we are all going to die, everything is going to collapse soon) you should expect getting more criticism and scrutiny. That’s just my opinion.
If I can do something for you, so you can continue expressing your opinions, let me know and I’ll gladly help you.
Regards,
yoshua on Sun, 7th Aug 2016 7:04 am
Thanks Futilitist, I learned something new after looking at the equation to the Etp-Model.
I believe that most people (me included) who haven’t studied geology, physics or math simply have a hard time understanding the Etp-Model.
Those who understand the physics behind the Etp-Model do not understand economics and finance and have therefore a problem with that side.
Anyway, its a very neat model that gives us an opportunity to look into the future of oil and the economy.
Whatever on Sun, 7th Aug 2016 7:32 am
Thanks obseverbrb.
I do expect to take some heat for my relatively extreme thermodynamic position on collapse, excuse the pun. But being permanently banned for it is *WAY* unfair. And if no one is here to take that position, it is as if that position does not even exist. Out of sight out of mind. That is how denial works.
I am not defending any outcome but the logical one.
By the way I noticed that you managed to jury rig a part 2 for your excellent
“Oil prices will never recover” thread. My approach would have been to open a thread in site feedback and find out how the premature locking could have happened in the first place. Different stroke for different folks, I guess.
—Futilitist
Whoever on Sun, 7th Aug 2016 7:42 am
Sorry, switching identities again. This is too hard to do. It isn’t worth it.
Thanks obseverbrb.
I do expect to take some heat for my relatively extreme thermodynamic position on collapse, excuse the pun. But being permanently banned for it is *WAY* unfair. And if no one is here to take that position, it is as if that position does not even exist. Out of sight out of mind. That is how denial works.
I am not defending any outcome but the logical one.
By the way I noticed that you managed to jury rig a part 2 for your excellent
“Oil prices will never recover” thread. My approach would have been to open a thread in site feedback and find out how the premature locking could have happened in the first place. Different stroke for different folks, I guess.
—Futilitist
Davy on Sun, 7th Aug 2016 7:47 am
In a broader sense the ETP model is common sense. There should be no need to even study it deeply. If you want a more detailed time frame and a process effect it needs to be studied in depth. 2022 is an approaching date where we are in the vicinity of the dead state of oil where the global economy no longer functions as we know it with oil.
I have often mentioned it is the approach to the dead state along with the decay of the global economy and abrupt climate change that is the true measure of the collapse process. When we see a converging of these predicaments causing breaches to minimums we will see failures of vital nodes of support. When global man’s minimum operating levels for necessary complexity are breached the game is over and something new and less will shake out of this process. We are getting close so prepare accordingly.
Whoever on Sun, 7th Aug 2016 7:52 am
Thanks yoshua.
I am glad that people are learning about the Etp model. I agree, it is very neat.
I think that people who understand economics and finance generally don’t accept or understand physical limits at all.
—Futilitist
marmico on Sun, 7th Aug 2016 8:07 am
Futilist whatever is a dickhead.
So observerbrb, you were just scammed by the ETP fuctard. Imagine, a “top secret” vehicle that is 250% more efficient than an ICE.
An ICE is 20% fuel efficient, maybe 25% with turbo intercoolers and 22 speed drive trains, but the ETP fuctard has the secret sauce for a 70% efficient vehicle.
Whoever on Sun, 7th Aug 2016 8:11 am
Hey Davy.
Great comment. I found the Etp model to be completely intuitive the first time I ever laid eyes on it. Of course, at the time, I was in the middle of a heated discussion about my own idea that oil affordability had dropped below the cost of production, and that the price of oil would continue to fall. I was also saying that the start of the oil price collapse in 2014 marked the official onset of the collapse of civilization. I guess I was ready for the Etp model.
Besides the Etp model, people also love to ignore the Korowicz paper. Taken together, the Etp model and the Korowicz paper show that a rapid collapse is both unavoidable and soon.
—Futilitist