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Page added on February 13, 2015
Brazil faces water disaster; scientists warned it was coming
Brazil’s largest city is facing a water shortage this year unlike it has seen in decades — a potential disaster scientists have warned about as far back as the 1980s.
The metropolitan area of Sao Paulo, the world’s 12th-largest metro population at more than 20 million, is served by two main natural water systems — the Cantareira and Alto Tiete reservoir networks, which barely have any water in them, The Guardian reported this week. The Cantareira is only 5 percent full, and the Tiete is at less than 15 percent of capacity.
This is an issue that water conservation advocates and scientists have warned about for decades. The Brazilian government has undertaken moderate efforts over the last 25 years to improve the drought conditions but they have had a limited impact.
Experts say the drought could be catastrophic, due to aggravating factors like water management flaws and a culture of waste and pollution, and bring the Americas’ largest metropolitan population to the brink of collapse. It’s the most severe drought in Sao Paulo in 80 years, National Public Radio reported.
“Sao Paulo was known as the drizzle city, lots of drizzle. Not anymore,” said Augusto Jose Pereira Filho, professor of atmospheric science at Sao Paulo University. “Now it is kind of a desert.”
Any kind of a water shortage in Brazil might seem strange to some, since the country is rife with rainforests, and annual precipitation levels are typically well above the global average. The problem, scientists say, is not so much the collection of water as it is the overuse, neglect and pollution of the resource. Factor in rain patterns that are below normal for the current rainy season, which began in November, and Sao Paulo is confronted with the current predicament.
Scientists have predicted that, given the current consumption rate and lack of rainfall, water supplies for the Sao Paulo region might only last as many as six months. That means the water may run out before the next rainy season begins. Last May, Brazil’s southern coast was hit by torrential rains and officials are hoping to see a repeat this year to help fill the reservoirs.
State officials recently announced a potentially drastic water-rationing program, which would permit residents only two days a week to use water — and five days without — just in case rains don’t fill the reservoirs for the next six weeks.
Government officials have long been aware of the potential for disaster regarding water management, but action urged by advocates has largely been ignored. In 1992, Sao Paulo’s governor launched a program to clean up the heavily polluted Tiete River, but 23 years — and $1.5 billion later — the project is still far short of complete.
Part of the problem, experts say, stems from Brazil’s impoverished population. While the government can impose water limits and regulations to offset the problems, areas of the poor can often consume water at rates that cannot be monitored or restricted by officials. Another issue aggravating the matter, some researchers say, is climate change — which they believe is occurring due to rising temperatures, deforestation and the below average rainfall they are seeing in Brazil.
The challenges and threats of Brazil’s imminent water shortage are not only frightening due to its most immediate impact. Some government officials fear what may also begin to happen further down the road, such as residents consuming polluted water or turning to violence and thievery when wells finally run dry.
“That scenario is really scary,” Pereira said. “Water is very important; it’s a fundamental resource for us.”
Some of Sao Paulo’s residents accuse the government of turning a blind eye to the problem. Last summer, the nation hosted the World Cup — a time when state officials did not want to take substantial action. Now, they say, it’s a disaster.
Rio de Janiero, situated about 250 miles east of Sao Paulo, is getting set to host the 2016 Summer Olympic Games next year — a situation that certainly could impact the southern coast’s water sustainability.
15 Comments on "Brazil faces water disaster; scientists warned it was coming"
J-Gav on Fri, 13th Feb 2015 12:10 pm
Hmm, not looking very rosy is it, for the erstwhile ‘developing economy’ superstar …
And of course we have something similar to look forward to in the good ‘ole US of A, at least in the West and South-West – not to mention sea-level rise seriously threatening a number of populated coastal areas in the coming decades.
Sorry if that sounds pessimistic and nasty but I do still maintain a positive ‘daily’ outlook on life, even if the mid-term prospects continue to dim.
vox_mundi on Fri, 13th Feb 2015 12:43 pm
Like most thing here at PeakOil.com we have been tracking the drought in Sao Paulo long before it showed up on MSM radar screen. The situation is more nuanced than English language media suggests. 20 million people are going to run out of water in 6 weeks and there is alot more background to this story. If your interested in the rest of the story you can follow the current thread is at http://peakoil.com/forums/s-america-s-largest-city-on-verge-of-collapse-pt-2-t70883.html#p1230780 and the prior thread starting last Sept. is at http://peakoil.com/forums/s-america-s-largest-city-on-verge-of-collapse-t70392-80.html#p1217151
Apneaman on Fri, 13th Feb 2015 1:22 pm
vox, I really appreciate all your great work putting together everything on the unfolding disaster in Brazil. Your work has been noted by others in the Doomosphere as well.
Perk Earl on Fri, 13th Feb 2015 1:27 pm
“Another issue aggravating the matter, some researchers say, is climate change — which they believe is occurring due to rising temperatures, deforestation and the below average rainfall they are seeing in Brazil.”
Deforestation is the problem. It’s well known that as more forest is cut or burned the Amazon jungle is transforming into a savanna of dry brush and desert. Of course that will reduce rainfall for Sao Paulo.
As that situation unfolds it will represent a good case study of what we can expect in many other parts of the world.
chilyb on Fri, 13th Feb 2015 1:31 pm
Yes, thank you Vox.
Apneaman on Fri, 13th Feb 2015 2:10 pm
Perk, Deforestation/change in land use is the #2 anthropogenic driver of climate change. I live in BC and many of our forests have been wiped out by the pine beetle. This is fairly recent and would not have happened without an increase in temperature that has prevented the previously annual winter freeze-die back. The beetles are a positive self reinforcing feedback and they have jumped the rockies and are creeping north towards the great Boreal forest. This is an ecological disaster of monumental proportions-yet most Canadians are happily shopping away or talking hockey. Just another Oh dear! story if they are listening at all.
“Summer 2006: Peter Jackson, a meteorologist in Prince George B.C., couldn’t believe what he was seeing on his radar screen. It was like a rainstorm, but thicker, and it was
crossing east over the Rocky Mountains. It looked a little like insect swarms, except
insects had never been seen at such high altitudes before. Farmers on the eastern slope
of the Rockies described huge clouds of insects. They could hear them pinging off their
steel roofs. The swarms were so dense they gummed up the windshield wipers on the farmers’ vehicles.
This was this first attack of the Mountain Pine Beetle east of the Rocky Mountains… the
year when the unthinkable actually happened: carried along by the prevailing winds,
trillions of Mountain Pine Beetles crossed the Rocky Mountains from BC into Alberta. Now, the great Northern Boreal Forest, one of the world’s richest ecosystems and one of its greatest carbon sinks, was face to face with a grave threat – a plague of insects, each
the size of a grain of rice.”
The Beetles Are Coming ~ Pine Beetle Destroys BC Forest
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=24zxOYwhAys
GregT on Fri, 13th Feb 2015 3:07 pm
Apnea,
Have you looked at the North Shore mountains recently? If this winter’s weather is a trend, as opposed to an anomaly, I give it less than 5 years before Vancouver faces a water crisis.
Apneaman on Fri, 13th Feb 2015 3:41 pm
I have not heard anything official on the LML water sheds, but that don’t mean anything, especially if climate change is involved – Mums the word in this country. We could see power issues similar to what is happening in Brazil. BC will get hammered too, the only question is when; sooner or just a bit later?
Glaciers, BC Hydro’s Melting ‘Batteries’
Scientists are trying to figure out how rising temps will change the alpine run-off that helps power the province.
http://thetyee.ca/News/2012/02/06/Glacier-Hydro/
Makati1 on Fri, 13th Feb 2015 6:08 pm
Apneaman, I had first hand experience with the pine beetle … in 1968. I worked for the US Forest Service in West Yellowstone Park when they were spraying the infected trees to try to control the spread. Not very successful then and obviously not even now. This is just one of many pests and diseases that are going to move north into the US from south of the border, and eventually into Canada.
Apneaman on Fri, 13th Feb 2015 7:21 pm
The consequences are growing daily, Mak.
Climate change pushing American pikas higher into mountains
“Their decline at low-elevation sites suggests that the future for other species is not great either,” Joseph Stewart said.
http://www.upi.com/Science_News/2015/02/03/Climate-change-pushing-American-pikas-higher-into-mountains/2221422981708/
GregT on Fri, 13th Feb 2015 7:51 pm
There are now 20 million hectares of forest in BC that have been affected by the mountain pine beetle. Much of those standing dead trees are in remote inaccessible areas. Another dry summer like we’ve had in recent years, lightening strikes in the wrong areas coupled with high winds, and we could easily see firestorms of biblical proportions.
Apneaman on Fri, 13th Feb 2015 8:15 pm
The dead trees start releasing their carbon in 4-5 years, of course burning is all that much quicker. Another self reinforcing feed back loop. We must be getting close to 40 of them and we can’t stop any of them. Inertia is a bitch.
James Tipper on Sat, 14th Feb 2015 12:16 am
Especially in dry places that I’ve visited in the South-West USA years ago I would listen to older gentleman complain about how there was no rain. There used to be a little rain decades ago but now there’s virtually none. Vegetation and other growth has come to a screeching halt which is bad because we want vegetation in hot areas to reduce bad products like desertification.
Even in the MidWest find anyone over 50 and they’ll tell you how bizarre the weather patterns have become. But the pattern of these insects for example like the emerald ash borer comes to mind have caused massive destruction both environmentally and economically. One community I visited had a bunch of stumps and I asked about it they told me they were removed so the emerald ash borer wouldn’t spread. Scary shit.
Davy on Sat, 14th Feb 2015 6:40 am
Jimmy what region are you from in the Midwest. I am in the heart of the Ozarks in Missouri.
Yes, we have a different climate but subtle. We have actually been experiencing cooler conditions with more excessive rain and drought. The melting of the ice up north is throwing colder air down from a jet stream meandering like a stream clogged with gravel. In the rainy season this is creating more or less rain as patterns set up. Heat periods are a danger now more often.
I am adapting by returning part of the farm to native grasses which have adapted to the extremes. I still have the European introduced grasses because they also have a place in a less stable climate.
I have two big lakes and two ponds for water. There is a spring and I have 4 wells. I want to convert each well to a different water withdrawal option. They will run on electric while the grid is still stable but I will have the option of withdrawing water without grid power. One pump will use a hand system, another wind, and yet another solar. Unfortunately they are on my list of to-do’s and I need BAU to transition out of BAU. I can maybe start one well next year. This year I have projects in the works.
Doom and prep have to be a constant effort. If you think you are going to jump out of BAU into doom and prep forget it. It is a long term effort. Anyway, I am trying to adapt to the climate change as best I can. Each type of farming must look to adaptation and mitigation per comparative advantages and disadvantages. We can be sure productivity will go down because of less oil but resilience and sustainability will go up. That is if we can maintain stability in a descent. I could not run a farm here like I do in an environment of bandits and migrating locust masses of people.
Kenz300 on Sun, 15th Feb 2015 12:54 pm
Too many people and too few resources……..
Yet the world adds 80 million more mouths to feed, clothe, house and provide energy and water for…..
If you can not provide for yourself you can not provide for a child…….