Register

Peak Oil is You


Donate Bitcoins ;-) or Paypal :-)

Donate Bitcoin



Donate Paypal

Page added on August 6, 2015

Bookmark and Share

Are we heading for a world of 11 billion people?

Are we heading for a world of 11 billion people? thumbnail

The world population is growing at a slower rate than it was 10 years ago – from 1.24% a decade ago to 1.18% today – according to the United Nations’ latest projections. But that still means we’re adding an extra 83 million people annually.

If the projections are accurate, the world population will reach 9.7 billion by 2050, with 50% of that growth expected to come from Africa. Europe’s population, on the other hand, will shrink from 738 million today to 646 million by 2050. The report estimates that by 2100, there will be 11.2 billion people on the planet, although it also notes that there is a 23% chance that population growth will stabilize – or even fall – by then.

While the world’s population looks set to grow, fertility rates are in fact down across almost every part of the world. The growth projections instead reflect the progress made in reducing child mortality rates and increasing life expectancy. Death rates among children under five fell to 50 per 1,000 in 2010-2015, down from 71 per 1,000 in 2000-2005. And life expectancy at birth looks set to increase to 83 years by 2095-2100, up from 70 years today.

Despite these gains, experts have pointed out that big challenges remain. The U.N. report found that a disproportionate amount of the population growth will come from 48 least-developed countries, raising the question of how their governments will manage to deliver poverty-reducing and equality-boosting measures on such a large scale. For Jennifer Blanke, who heads the Forum’s Global Challenge Initiative on Economic Growth and Social Inclusion, this was one of the main issues raised by the report: “If these countries are to meet the needs of their rapidly growing populations, they have to be able to deliver both sustainable economic growth and social inclusion. But while almost everyone agrees with that, we’re still struggling to establish the best way of achieving it. That’s something political, business and civil society leaders will need to work together on, and is indeed the main goal of the initiative I’m leading.”

alarabiya.net



33 Comments on "Are we heading for a world of 11 billion people?"

  1. Plantagenet on Thu, 6th Aug 2015 3:10 pm 

    The US, EU, Japan, Russia are already at ZPG or even NPG for their native populations. All population growth today is either coming from underdeveloped countries or from immigration from those underdeveloped countries into more developed countries.

    Its one of the reasons Obama’s “open borders” policy is so wrong-headed. The US should be trying to reduce population growth in the US and around the world, not growing its population by welcoming in the overflow of people from less developed countries.

    CHEERS!

  2. Pennsyguy on Thu, 6th Aug 2015 3:30 pm 

    I’d bet on from 0 to 2 billion humans in 2100, plus lots of great ruins to captivate any alien archeologists. Maybe some giant statues of Donald Trump?

  3. BobInget on Thu, 6th Aug 2015 4:04 pm 

    Not withstanding, we humans are in the middle of a refugee crisis, beginning the greatest migration in modern history.

    For the remainder human history, the story remains the same. Climate changes leading to wars displacing billions over coming sad millennium.

    If you doubt what I say, tune FOX in tonight & watch “Confederacy of Dunces”.
    If prone to depression, skip ‘Clown Debate’
    and just watch Jon Stewart’s final show on Comedy Central.

  4. Dredd on Thu, 6th Aug 2015 4:18 pm 

    Probably 11 thousand before 11 billion.

  5. Truth Has a Liberal Bias on Thu, 6th Aug 2015 4:44 pm 

    The Hobbesian scramble will be global by 2023. It’s already started in many places and is washing up on the shores of Southern Europe and Australia. A lot of porcelain is going to get broken. Peace likes a full plate; people steal before they starve, and all that. By 2023 it’ll be government by ox cart and survival of the fittest.

  6. apneaman on Thu, 6th Aug 2015 4:57 pm 

    Japan in Hot Water — Longest Heatwave on Record for Tokyo, Tens of Thousands Hospitalized

    http://robertscribbler.com/2015/08/06/japan-in-hot-water-longest-heatwave-on-record-for-tokyo-tens-of-thousands-hospitalized/

  7. apneaman on Thu, 6th Aug 2015 5:00 pm 

    Climate change could force 1 billion from their homes by 2050

    http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/climate-change-could-force-1-billion-from-their-homes-by-2050-817223.html

  8. apneaman on Thu, 6th Aug 2015 5:02 pm 

    Human population reduction is not a quick fix for environmental problems

    http://www.pnas.org/content/111/46/16610.full

  9. Truth Has a Liberal Bias on Thu, 6th Aug 2015 5:53 pm 

    Long before sea level rise bothers people in their coastal homes it will wipe out rice production in the Mekong Delta. Home to millions. Rice production for billions. Once the rice growing deltas are hit with a couple feet or a storm surge you can say goodbye to a lot of grain production. Starvation and mass migration will result. The Hobbesian scramble will get you before the seas wash out your town.

    http://www.pri.org/stories/2014-08-26/rising-sea-levels-mean-trouble-vietnams-rice-farmers

  10. Davy on Thu, 6th Aug 2015 6:26 pm 

    Truth, excellent point and one rarely discussed. Rice is as vulnerable as corn to climate change. Wheat may be a better bet. The point is the teaming mass of people in Asia are extremely vulnerable. There is such a dangerous dependence on rice in Asia with no alternatives.

    Mak, be sure and read that article I will bookmark it for future reference when you need it.

  11. joe on Thu, 6th Aug 2015 6:28 pm 

    The birth rate is not the issue. Medical advances and longer living combined with contraception in the developed world has enabled the west and recently China to benefit from small families. The old idea that a big population means a stronger country is totally blown apart. If we want to have any hope of surviving the effects of global warming and peak oil in one piece then we need to be bombing the hell out of poor countries with condoms and morning after pills.

  12. HARM on Thu, 6th Aug 2015 7:01 pm 

    “Its one of the reasons Obama’s “open borders” policy is so wrong-headed. The US should be trying to reduce population growth in the US and around the world, not growing its population by welcoming in the overflow of people from less developed countries.”

    Actually open borders is the corporate Oligarchs’ policy, and has been in effect as long as I’ve been alive –under every President, regardless of party affiliation. Obama is just the latest puppet in the White House.

  13. Plantagenet on Thu, 6th Aug 2015 7:09 pm 

    @HARM

    Obama and the Ds have taken the “open borders” policy farther then any former president. In the past illegal alien felons were deported. Under Obama they are either not deported, or if they return to the US they are free to say in the US in so-called “sanctuary cities like San Francisco.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/calif-killing-inflames-debate-on-illegal-immigrants-sanctuary-cities/2015/07/06/8dc6eb50-241e-11e5-b72c-2b7d516e1e0e_story.html

  14. Davy on Thu, 6th Aug 2015 7:27 pm 

    Joe, not sure we will be in one piece. Contraceptives are important as a required population tool but totally inadequate in the process of rebalancing population to 1Bil or less.

    Excess deaths over births will be ugly but that is where we are now. That will be the new paradigm and likely soon. This is nonnegotiable and required by nature. We can make this process better or worse but not go away.

  15. onlooker on Thu, 6th Aug 2015 8:50 pm 

    So tired of hearing this type of story about reaching 11 billion. Almost certainly not and if so we all will be living like virtual rats in a cage, meaning very poorly. Same with economy growing or this technology or that one coming online etc. The grim reality is we are rapidly degrading the ability of this planet to support life in various ways. So let us all come to grips with this reality rather then living in a delusional state.

  16. apneaman on Thu, 6th Aug 2015 9:09 pm 

    That’s right, Planty. Immigrants – the go to minority scapegoat for thousands of years, so no one has to own up. Just imagine if they could get rid of every illegal tomorrow. The first thing you would notice is that there are no fruits and vegetables in the grocery stores cause there would be no one to pick them. Good luck getting the millions of 20-30 something unemployed white kids out of mommy’s basement to do it.

  17. Boat on Thu, 6th Aug 2015 10:12 pm 

    Plantagenet
    You need to do some googling. After election Obama added like 200 million or so to beef up E-varify. You can credit Obama or the collapsed economy from before his administration but illegal entry went way down and deportations went up. there were many stating illegal entry reached net zero. there are also thousands more troops stationed on the border.

  18. Davy on Thu, 6th Aug 2015 10:31 pm 

    Ape Man, I agree with your view. At some point the boys in mom’s basement are going to be forced out on to the land. Food insecurity, hunger, and famine will do this. I am not sure the time frame but we are heading that direction.

    Immigration is a hot button issue for me. The issue of the U.S. in overshoot dictates immigration should be reduced significantly for reasons of survival. Yet, I doubt this can be done in a practical manner. Like any major change the consequences to a system like ours is serious disruption.

    I doubt at some point when collapse is in full swing imigration will matter. This is because we are all going to be potential immigrants. Life is going to enter a new and vastly altered reality from what we know currently. This immigration issue will melt away once borders are less than certain.

  19. Boat on Thu, 6th Aug 2015 10:31 pm 

    apneaman,
    Are you nuts?
    Immigrants, legal or illegal or are the biggest problem the world faces today and the reason for exploding populations. When you think of sustainability adding low skilled low wage workers just adds to the problem. So the fires you worry about, add an immigrant. Running out of water, add an immigrant, peak oil? Add an immigrant. Sarcasm intended.
    Technology is eroding the jobs of today and the need for employees is dropping. The crash of 2009 we kept bringing in 2 mill per year with 10% unemployment. A little insensitive eh?
    The only thing immigrants do now is keep wages low due to over supply of workers. Good for big business but not good for the poor and middle class. Immigrants are a subsidy, That fruit would get picked and those dishes would get washed. Your argument is silly and old.

  20. Boat on Thu, 6th Aug 2015 10:31 pm 

    apneaman,
    Are you nuts?
    Immigrants, legal or illegal or are the biggest problem the world faces today and the reason for exploding populations. When you think of sustainability adding low skilled low wage workers just adds to the problem. So the fires you worry about, add an immigrant. Running out of water, add an immigrant, peak oil? Add an immigrant. Sarcasm intended.
    Technology is eroding the jobs of today and the need for employees is dropping. The crash of 2009 we kept bringing in 2 mill per year with 10% unemployment. A little insensitive eh?
    The only thing immigrants do now is keep wages low due to over supply of workers. Good for big business but not good for the poor and middle class. Immigrants are a subsidy, That fruit would get picked and those dishes would get washed. Your argument is silly and old.

  21. GregT on Thu, 6th Aug 2015 11:04 pm 

    Borders are imaginary lines drawn in the sand. They are nothing more than a means to control people. If one really wants to be realistic about it, the vast majority of us here in North America are immigrants. The indigenous peoples were here for at least 10,000 years before our immigrant ancestors invaded.

    We have almost completely destroyed their homelands, and we are now working diligently at destroying the entire planet, and we are succeeding.

  22. Makati1 on Thu, 6th Aug 2015 11:08 pm 

    Bring on immigration! The Mexicans and Central Americans are just stopping in the Us for a while, before they join the US migration to Canada. The West is burning it’s way to a savannah and the Midwest is working on desertification. The East is going to be pounded with super-storms and millions of homeless wandering the countryside, looking for anything they can steal. When the Mississippi starts to dry up, it’s game over. Yep! The Us is the place to be…lol.

  23. apneaman on Thu, 6th Aug 2015 11:11 pm 

    Davy, if any of those 21st century city basement dwellers are looking for work and you have some are you going to hire them and spend most of your time training them up? Or would you at least rather hire someone who had been on the tools to some degree who’s skill set could be easily transferred to farm work? There is a reason why you need 4000 – 5000 worked to get a journeyman ticket and that just means you can work unsupervised. It takes another 5000 to become a master. This is well studied and documented and is the same for an electrician or concert pianist, etc. I bet it’s the same for running a farm. Some few might find the most menial work, but without skills and quickly recognizable competence they are going to be on the bottom of the list. Nothing personal, just survival in a new world. As for illegal immigration, I never claimed it wasn’t a problem. It’s just that Trump is playing the same card as Hitler and Mussolini – playing to the sheep’s baser emotions. Apes are already starting to form loose coalitions along political and racial/ethnic lines and that is dangerous enough. Make it official and it could get out of hand. Especially in a heavily armed country where half the population speaks Spanish or soon will. It’s like people are following a worst case scenario blueprint. In the 1930’s many Germans and Italians got what they wished for – for about a decade – how that work out for y’alls? Careful. Illegal immigration is one of a myriad of highly complex problems of a dying system, but these simple minded emotional fixes never fix anything. Let the unthinking apes tear themselves apart and stay out of the way Davy. Save your energy and good will for the rebuilding phase, whatever and whenever that may be.

  24. Makati1 on Thu, 6th Aug 2015 11:12 pm 

    Then there is Europe. As the ice melts and the seas are diluted, the Gulf Stream slows and maybe stops, returning most of Europe into the Arctic. Then the flood of Europeans will turn East to warmer climates. As for Asia, a lot of deaths, but then, that is nothing new there.

    Billions will dies before 2050. If the human species survives this century, it will be as nomadic tribes numbering in the thousands, not millions.

  25. Makati1 on Fri, 7th Aug 2015 12:12 am 

    Articles today:
    Immigrants in Germany swell to record high 11 million
    Germany Enlists Army to Deal with Migrant Influx
    More than 2,000 migrants die attempting to cross Mediterranean this year
    On Greek island, migrants find paradise quickly turns to purgatory
    Having escaped failed states, the migrants find themselves in a failing one.
    Soldiers in Hungary Begin Building Fence to Stop Migrants
    Rome ‘too crowded’ for more migrants: mayor
    Italy counts 90,000 sea migrant arrivals so far this year
    220-Strong Village In Southern Hungary Protests Against Planned Refugee Camp
    Weary Hungarians polarized by tide of refugees
    Migrant boat overturns in Mediterranean, hundreds believed on board
    Hundreds of migrants brought to Italy after Mediterranean rescue

    http://ricefarmer.blogspot.fr/

    11 billion? I don’t think so.

  26. Davy on Fri, 7th Aug 2015 7:50 am 

    Ape Man, the running of a farm is not what most of these boys and girls will be doing. They will be doing the manual work in the fields. I am not going to predict how this reduced urbanization and deindustrialization is going to unfold. Collapse is a process full of events. Some of those events will be food and fuel shortages. We will surely see social unrest and systematic abandonment and dysfunction.

    The only place for people to go is back to the land where there is land to go back to. Some locations are locked into an end game in some urban regions with nowhere to go. How quickly and hard our complex society falls will dictate how messy this is. I imagine it will vary by region with an uneven collapse. Contraction will be random and variable. Climate change will surely play a role.

    If we have time surely those in charge will see the importance of moving people to farming communities as food insecurity increases and unemployment in urban areas increases. Fuel shortages will mean we will have less modern agriculture and more small labor intensive farms. Many of these small farms will start out with little productivity but over time they will develop. There is a learning curve and investment curve that will be critical and dependent on the size and speed of the contraction.

    We may see forced population movement like Pol Pot’s killing fields. With all disruptions it will be the degree and duration of that disruption that will determine how ugly and successful this transition will be. I am not optimistic now because nowhere is there a movement to voluntary complexity reductions and deindustrialization at a large scale. We have doomers and preppers planting seeds and lifeboats but that will not amount to much in the overall picture.

    We need to be making efforts now. The problem is the type of effort we need to make will be disruptive and disturb the status quo leading to contraction the authorities are trying so hard to prevent. The medicine needed will kill the patient. I wish we could begin the process with education and stockpiling the basic material needed but there is no economics to that in our hyper efficient just-in-time system.

    We have a global population bought into BAU and they will be sold out of it by pain and suffering. I see little chance of people voluntarily sacrificing and facing a life of less with less especially when they do not understand the issues. Those with a choice will be the lucky ones with many just cannon fodder for collapse.

    It will not matter what type of collapse process whether fast or slow people will and must reduce urbanism and deindustrialize. Farming will become a labor intensive affair. Animals will be needed and the old ways must return. A hybrid of new and old is surely part of this. There is so much high quality material and knowledge to make deindustrialized farming easier than we had pre fossil fuels. That is if much of that is not lost in a hard quick collapse.

    You the reader can get a leg up and move out of unsustainable locations. You can begin to learn skills now. Maybe we have 10 years before the worst maybe not. Descent is very hard to forecast but I can tell you we are heading to hard labor on the land. That is clear in my mind.

  27. Davy on Fri, 7th Aug 2015 7:57 am 

    Mak said “11 billion? I don’t think so.” Mak I read all your comments so I am asking you why do you also say we could have 11BIL if we quit eating meat and make other changes? You must be worried in your grossly overpopulated Asia. Check this out Mak I save it just for you because I know how much your tiny overpopulated Island relies on rice and rice imports:

    http://www.pri.org/stories/2014-08-26/rising-sea-levels-mean-trouble-vietnams-rice-farmers

    Mak, you can’t have your cake and eat it. If 11BIL is bad it is bad in Asia too.

  28. Kenz300 on Fri, 7th Aug 2015 10:40 am 

    Too many people and too few resources…….

    Endless population growth is not sustainable….

    If you can not provide for yourself you can not provide for a child……..

  29. Apneaman on Fri, 7th Aug 2015 2:00 pm 

    Killer Heat Grows Hotter around the World

    Hot enough for you? This is just the beginning

    http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/killer-heat-grows-hotter-around-the-world/

  30. Apneaman on Fri, 7th Aug 2015 2:13 pm 

    Top NASA scientist: “Power Plan is worthless”

    http://haynesville.com/news/id/109264/top-nasa-scientist-power-plan-is-worthless/

  31. Apneaman on Fri, 7th Aug 2015 2:14 pm 

    Report: Cost of fighting wildfire reaches tipping point, threatening priority Forest Service programs

    http://wilderness.org/blog/report-cost-fighting-wildfire-reaches-tipping-point-threatening-priority-forest-service

  32. Apneaman on Fri, 7th Aug 2015 2:35 pm 

    A History of Humankind

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JpCai-84xYs

  33. Kenz300 on Sun, 9th Aug 2015 4:49 am 

    “The world population is growing at a slower rate than it was 10 years ago – from 1.24% a decade ago to 1.18% today – according to the United Nations’ latest projections. But that still means we’re adding an extra 83 million people annually.”

    Around the world we have water shortages, food shortages, energy shortages, rising Climate Change, species extinction, rising sea levels and yet we add 83 million more people to feed, house, clothe and provide energy and water for every year. If you can not provide for yourself you can not provide for a child. It is cruel to bring a child into the world that you are unable to provide for.

    Birth Control Permanent Methods: Learn About Effectiveness

    http://www.emedicinehealth.com/birth_control_permanent_methods/article_em.htm


Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *