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Page added on July 7, 2014
Are We Close to Peak Coal in China?
Last year, renewable energy made up nearly 70 percent of new electric generation capacity additions in China. That figure would be more impressive if coal wasn’t the reigning supreme leader of China’s energy landscape. It currently accounts for about 65 percent of the country’s energy mix.
But coal’s tight grip on the country may start to wane within a decade. By 2030, China will be dismantling its coal capacity, predicted Michael Liebreich, chairman of the advisory board for Bloomberg New Energy Finance, at the recent Renewable Energy Finance Forum Wall Street.
That bold prediction is backed up by the Chinese government’s recent calls for a war on pollution, which could mean a significant shift in coal consumption. The war will not be a quick one.China Daily recently reported that it would take until 2030 for Beijing to get back down to fine particulate matter levels that would comply with international safety standards.
So far, some of the efforts outlined to combat pollution involve shutting down smaller coal-fired power plants and banning imports of high-ash, high-sulfur coal (although China would still use lower-quality coal sourced from within the country). Other measures include putting more scrubbers on coal plants, rather than taking them offline all together.
Liebreich and BNEF are not alone in forecasting the end of coal domination in China. A recent report by Greenpeace, The End of China’s Coal Boom, found that six Chinese provinces have absolute coal consumption reduction targets that range from 5 percent to 50 percent by 2017 from 2012 levels. However, many of these provinces had rapid expansion in the use of coal up until 2011.
“The road away from coal is going to be long and challenging,” Greenpeace states in the report, “but it has started.”
Other forecasts are far more bearish on coal’s decline in China, especially in the short term. The International Energy Agency found last year that coal would continue to grow, albeit at a slower rate, through 2018. It also notes that coal gasification is increasing considerably in China. The U.S. Energy Information Administration also sees coal as the dominant source of electricity in China through 2040.
“Like it or not, coal is here to stay for a long time to come,” Maria van der Hoeven, executive director of EIA said in statement in December. “But it is equally important to emphasize that coal in its current form is simply unsustainable.”
11 Comments on "Are We Close to Peak Coal in China?"
steve on Mon, 7th Jul 2014 10:07 am
Those numbers can’t be right…70 percent of new electricity is renewable…I don’t think that is right..
peakyeast on Mon, 7th Jul 2014 11:06 am
One can even discuss if renewable power is renewable without fossil fuels and declining oregrades.
Mining ores, refining ores, transportation x many, product production, installation…
How to do this with only electricity?
I suppose that is what they call a challenge.
HARM on Mon, 7th Jul 2014 11:38 am
Why can’t ores be mined and refining using electricity? Basically, you need explosives and something to operate the heavy scoops, drills and ore trucks/carts, correct? With enough electrical power and large enough motors, why would this be insurmountable?
As far as transportation, we’ve covered that subject ad nauseum –electric rail, electric cars/bikes, etc.
I get that 7.2 billion people are not going to start living like Americans any time soon (we’d need 3-5 earths worth of resources), but I still don’t see replacing existing capacity (gradually) as an impossible task.
bobinget on Mon, 7th Jul 2014 12:18 pm
P.A.
“Peak Air” is when one more coal burning plant opens,
rich people begin to spit up bloody, grey ughies.
MSN Fanboy on Mon, 7th Jul 2014 12:36 pm
Could somebody please vertify this 70% renewable generation growth.
???????????????????????????????????
Is it true?
ulenspiegel on Mon, 7th Jul 2014 12:42 pm
steve wrote: “Those numbers can’t be right…70 percent of new electricity is renewable…I don’t think that is right..”
It is GW, not GWh and it is only added capacity.
As a coal power plant has much higher FLH than a wind turbine or PV system and most of the legacy capacity is indeed coal, the share of RE in respect to generated electricity is much lower.
Plantagenet on Mon, 7th Jul 2014 12:45 pm
China doesn’t produce all of its own coal—much of it comes from Australia and the USA. Even if Chinese coal production reaches “peak coal” there is plenty more coal coming from Australia and the US to keep those Chinese coal-fired power plants humming along.
J-Gav on Mon, 7th Jul 2014 2:04 pm
“Coal’s tight grip on the country may start to wane within a decade.”
“The road away from coal is going to be long and challenging.”
That sums it up pretty well, while at the same time serving as an indicator that our collective “Nature deficit disorder” is still far from being cured.
Political Economist on Mon, 7th Jul 2014 2:27 pm
If you look carefully at the bar for 2013, coal is about 30%. Coal, natural gas, nuclear together is about 40%. It appears that Bloomberg counts natural gas and nuclear as “renewable”.
Among the “renewables”, about half is hydro.
shortonoil on Mon, 7th Jul 2014 3:32 pm
With the world hitting Peak conventional in 2005, and probably heading for Peak all liquids within a year or two, China is not going to be cutting back on coal unless her entire economy crashes. This article verifies the reality that very few are yet aware of the the dismal state of the world’s future petroleum production potential. Depletion is obviously not yet on their radar. China has two alternatives at this point. Burn more coal, or watch its society unravel into a chaotic mess. Bet they burn more coal?
http://www.thehillsgroup.org/
synapsid on Mon, 7th Jul 2014 4:13 pm
Let’s not forget that the populations of India (1.2 billion and growing) plus SE Asia (600 000 million and growing) total 1.8 billion souls AND GROWING, and that coal is abundant and relatively easy to obtain and favored throughout the region for those reasons.