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Page added on September 15, 2015

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All The Doomsday Prophecies That Didn’t Come True

Ronald Bailey isn’t surprised by those who regularly renew warnings of environmental Armageddon. The award winning author and Reason journalist says there’s a simple reason for so much gloom: “doom sells.”

From Peak Oil to the Population Bomb, Bailey goes through a veritable anthology of debunked environmental doomsday prophecies on today’s episode of Federalist Radio.

Discussing his new book, The End of Doom, Bailey says human innovation offers many reasons for hope. He argues that liberal biologists need to adjust their paradigm for the capacity of technology and recognize that “humans don’t just use up resources. We make up more.”

Click here to subscribe and use the embedded link below to listen.

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32 Comments on "All The Doomsday Prophecies That Didn’t Come True"

  1. Apneaman on Tue, 15th Sep 2015 12:58 pm 

    “liberal biologists”

    Ron’s right, there is nothing more important than making sure you get the right kind of scientist when dealing with unchanging natural law. Even more important is to get all your information on biology, physics and chemistry from someone like Ron Bailey who is trained up in economics and works for the CATO institute. They even have their own interpretation (the correct one) of the periodic table of elements. And if you need medical advice or open heart surgery go see a conservative transmission specialists – preferably a Tea Party member.

    Come back next week for Ron’s scathing expose on “Liberal Physics” and pacifist Jew boy Albert Einstein’s “Theory of Relativity Hoax”
    Hint – it was all about “Black Hole” alarmsim and tax payer grant money.

  2. Another Northwest Resident on Tue, 15th Sep 2015 1:41 pm 

    “Come back next week for Ron’s scathing expose on “Liberal Physics” and pacifist Jew boy Albert Einstein’s “Theory of Relativity Hoax”
    Hint – it was all about “Black Hole” alarmsim and tax payer grant money”

    Hehe…

  3. apneaman on Tue, 15th Sep 2015 1:51 pm 

    “debunked environmental doomsday prophecies”

    You tell em Ron

    California in Losing Battle With Climate Change as Wildfires Devour 700 Homes, Force 23,000 to Flee

    “We Have Nothing”

    Now, as of early morning on Tuesday, nearly 150,000 acres of wildfires in Central California have destroyed more than 700 homes and over 1,200 structures, endangered more than 9,000 more, resulted in the calling up of an army of 2,000 firefighters (For this region alone. Across the US West more than 18,000 firefighters are battling blazes), killed at least one person, and forced more than 23,000 to flee (see more here). It’s an egregious human toll. One in which more and more people are saying heart-wrenching words like these — “We have nothing.”

    http://robertscribbler.com/2015/09/15/california-in-losing-battle-with-climate-change-as-wildfires-devour-700-homes-force-23000-to-flee/

  4. apneaman on Tue, 15th Sep 2015 1:55 pm 

    “debunked environmental doomsday prophecies”

    Experts: Record drought conditions only getting worse

    “If this year was the worst season, last year was the worst season, how are we going to cover the fires next year when we’re already short resources?” Central Pierce Fire and Rescue’s Ed Hrivnak asked.

    Washington is in back-to-back record-setting fire seasons, and new forecasts show conditions will only get worse for the next 10 years.”

    http://www.komonews.com/news/local/Expe … 03721.html

  5. apneaman on Tue, 15th Sep 2015 1:59 pm 

    “debunked environmental doomsday prophecies”

    1 Million Guatemalans Hungry as Drought Parches Central America

    “Already vulnerable with high levels of malnutrition and poverty, Guatemala is seeing an increase in food insecurity as drought hits hard.
    Nearly one million Guatemalans are struggling with food shortages and hunger as farmland remains parched after months without rain have brought severe drought conditions to Central America, according to the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization.

    “In Guatemala, 170,000 families, approximately 900,000 people, have no food reserves left,” FAO Guatemala head Diego Recalde told the Thomson Reuters Foundation. “This is the third consecutive year they have been hit by drought.”

    http://www.telesurtv.net/english/news/1-Million-Guatemalans-Hungry-as-Drought-Parches-Central-America-20150815-0009.html

  6. ghung on Tue, 15th Sep 2015 2:04 pm 

    All The Doomsday Prophecies That Didn’t Come True, YET.

    There. Fixed it.

  7. zoidberg on Tue, 15th Sep 2015 2:27 pm 

    You cant say every change in a local climate is the result of burning hydrocarbons. Its just not a supportable leap. C02 reflecting infrared is not a catchall to cover all variability. It’s just lazy and or compromised thinking to do so.

    Just read arctic ice is expanding again. Damn facts just get in the way sometimes.

  8. Davy on Tue, 15th Sep 2015 2:39 pm 

    Get out of here hemazoid. I will grant you some slack with the idea of normal variability but forget it with your idiot complete dismissal of the obvious complicity humans have in forcing our climate system on a massive scale.

  9. ghung on Tue, 15th Sep 2015 2:50 pm 

    void said: “Just read arctic ice is expanding again.

    It’s just lazy and or compromised thinking to say so. Once you define “expanding again”, you realize there’s more to it. This ain’t your Granddaddy’s Arctic ice. There’s the rub.

    But if you think global warming is, in part, due to ‘variability’, then it must be OK to juice the atmosphere a little (or a lot) more, eh?

  10. Rodster on Tue, 15th Sep 2015 2:52 pm 

    “You cant say every change in a local climate is the result of burning hydrocarbons. Its just not a supportable leap. C02 reflecting infrared is not a catchall to cover all variability.”

    In a way I agree that NOT all the current weather related problems can be attributed to Co2 emissions. That fact we have also been monkeying with the weather in the form of HARP and spraying the skies with metals to lower temps which is backed by a 1966 US Govt memo shows there’s more than one way to totally mess with the weather.

  11. zoidberg on Tue, 15th Sep 2015 2:59 pm 

    But it was supposed to be all gone al Gore said so! He had very large graphs too!(arctic ice)

    And yes a little more c02 is beneficial for the modest heat increase it’ll provide as well as the increased plant growth.

    No you guys are too black and white. You say massive scale I say a small factor among many.

    Again, the sun, drives the climate because it provides virtually all the energy in the system.

    And I won’t leave. You will hear dissent no matter how much you want to shout it down and kill it. Too bad for you guys.

    Don’t worry tho peak oil I suspect is actually around the corner soon…and you can doom it up around the sites raison d etre instead of subbing in climate change stories.

  12. apneaman on Tue, 15th Sep 2015 3:18 pm 

    Who said every change in local climate is a result of burning hydrocarbons? Show me the scientific paper that says that – You can’t it’s just another straw man. Where is this ice is expanding article? give us a link and I will really show everyone an example of “catchall” You deniers always use one variable or measurement among tens of thousands within a highly complex system to try explain away everything. Cherry pick one or two facts and think that cancels out everything else. “See See! this one measurement disproves the last 150 years of earth sciences and all the accumulated evidence” Most of these people you get your “facts” from are not even scientists and do not have to go through peer review, so have no official accountability, but they do get called out, but never mention their mistakes or getting caught to to their followers like you. You don’t care anyway – you need to believe it’s not true to keep feeling good about your worldview. Believe what you want but if you try and shop it around here…..I’ll always be here to gently correct you and remind you that we are fucked fucked fucked. As I told you before there never was any possibility that apes would ever stop burning shit for power and especially not oil – not unless we discovered something better. So I guess you are denying and minimizing cause you are trying to avoid suffering the guilts? Why bother when the best we could ever have done was delayed the inevitable by a handful of decades and we would have had to have started in the 70’s, so that door is now shut. It’s us, all us. Were like a cancer that has no choice but to keep consuming the host and growing until we destroy ourselves. AGW is but one part, we also have ocean acidification and the 6th mass extinction and of course our sex obsession and hyper breeding. We are what we are – accept it and embrace it because it’s all natural.

    Denier Steven Goddard Makes Ass of Himself on Washington Post, Confuses Sea Ice with a Glacier

    https://tonyhellerakastevengoddardisnotasociopath.wordpress.com/2015/08/19/denier-steven-goddard-makes-ass-of-himself-on-washington-post-confuses-sea-ice-with-glacier/

    Steve Goddard Deletes His Embarrasingly Wrong Post on Melting Glacier, Offers No Retraction

    https://tonyhellerakastevengoddardisnotasociopath.wordpress.com/2015/08/20/steve-goddard-deletes-his-embarrasingly-wrong-post-on-melting-glacier-offers-no-retraction/

  13. Plantagenet on Tue, 15th Sep 2015 3:25 pm 

    Its sad to see anti-semites like Apeman and Nordent calling Albert Einstein a “jew-boy.”

    Einstein is one of the towering intellectual figures of the 20th century. He deserves better then to be called a “jew-boy.”

  14. apneaman on Tue, 15th Sep 2015 3:35 pm 

    Ya, I was waiting for you to do that planty. Never miss a chance to twist someone’s words do you? Just like your lying conservative heroes are always getting caught doing drugs or fucking around while they preach their “Family Values” bullshit. Remember what I said about behind closed doors yesterday? Everyone’s fucking everyone and everyone is pretending they are not. Your a fucking phony just like them planty.

    GOP lawmakers caught half-naked in car admit trying to smear cop who busted them

    “Two more married midwestern Republicans are having to apologize for sneaking around behind their spouses’ backs and having a fling, with both lawmakers being forced to step down from spots on the Ethics Committee, according to the Killeeen Daily Herald.”

    http://www.rawstory.com/2015/09/gop-lawmakers-caught-half-naked-in-car-admit-trying-to-smear-cop-who-busted-them/

  15. zoidberg on Tue, 15th Sep 2015 4:10 pm 

    You said it was climate change related to the wild fires. In your third post posting links from like minded blogs. I got time this evening to sit at a proper desktop and do a proper thread. Let’s have an zoidberg vs everyone climate change thread.

    I’ll base it around your last reply. It was lengthy and not too derogatory, your last few replies have been more considered and less reactive. I feel you may be in a Better spot to listen objectively, well more so anyways.

  16. apneaman on Tue, 15th Sep 2015 4:21 pm 

    Global warming worsened the California drought, scientists say

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/08/20/scientists-say-global-warming-has-made-californias-drought-25-percent-worse/

    Research Letter
    Contribution of anthropogenic warming to California drought during 2012–2014

    Abstract

    A suite of climate data sets and multiple representations of atmospheric moisture demand are used to calculate many estimates of the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index, a proxy for near-surface soil moisture, across California from 1901 to 2014 at high spatial resolution. Based on the ensemble of calculations, California drought conditions were record breaking in 2014, but probably not record breaking in 2012–2014, contrary to prior findings. Regionally, the 2012–2014 drought was record breaking in the agriculturally important southern Central Valley and highly populated coastal areas. Contributions of individual climate variables to recent drought are also examined, including the temperature component associated with anthropogenic warming. Precipitation is the primary driver of drought variability but anthropogenic warming is estimated to have accounted for 8–27% of the observed drought anomaly in 2012–2014 and 5–18% in 2014. Although natural variability dominates, anthropogenic warming has substantially increased the overall likelihood of extreme California droughts.

    http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL064924/full

  17. apneaman on Tue, 15th Sep 2015 4:44 pm 

    Zoid,the smattering of scientific research you may have relied on for your position has recently been demonstrated to be flawed since it could not be reproduced. But why bother at this point? I am at the point where I only skim the new model results because they are unnecessary and redundant – everything is well underway and we need no models or new research papers to see it. It’s all around us and affecting billions negatively. All the predictions have come true and many much earlier than the models predicted. Throwing your links up at this point is a waste of time. If you come across some brand new peer reviewed work that falsifies the work that has been done to date I will be the first to take a look at it, but I ain’t going over the same tired old stuff again. The Horror show is just getting under way – inertia is going to be a real bitch.

    Here’s what happens when you try to replicate climate contrarian papers
    A new paper finds common errors among the 3% of climate papers that reject the global warming consensus

    “Those who reject the 97% expert consensus on human-caused global warming often invoke Galileo as an example of when the scientific minority overturned the majority view. In reality, climate contrarians have almost nothing in common with Galileo, whose conclusions were based on empirical scientific evidence, supported by many scientific contemporaries, and persecuted by the religious-political establishment. Nevertheless, there’s a slim chance that the 2–3% minority is correct and the 97% climate consensus is wrong.

    To evaluate that possibility, a new paper published in the journal of Theoretical and Applied Climatology examines a selection of contrarian climate science research and attempts to replicate their results. The idea is that accurate scientific research should be replicable, and through replication we can also identify any methodological flaws in that research. The study also seeks to answer the question, why do these contrarian papers come to a different conclusion than 97% of the climate science literature?

    This new study was authored by Rasmus Benestad, myself (Dana Nuccitelli), Stephan Lewandowsky, Katharine Hayhoe, Hans Olav Hygen, Rob van Dorland, and John Cook. Benestad (who did the lion’s share of the work for this paper) created a tool using the R programming language to replicate the results and methods used in a number of frequently-referenced research papers that reject the expert consensus on human-caused global warming. In using this tool, we discovered some common themes among the contrarian research papers.

    Cherry picking was the most common characteristic they shared. We found that many contrarian research papers omitted important contextual information or ignored key data that did not fit the research conclusions.”

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2015/aug/25/heres-what-happens-when-you-try-to-replicate-climate-contrarian-papers

    Learning from mistakes in climate research

    http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00704-015-1597-5

  18. zoidberg on Tue, 15th Sep 2015 5:02 pm 

    What is underway, exactly? Did the sea swallow Bangladesh? Did a giant desert cover the globe? Endless giant storms ravage the lands? No, well what’s the problem then?

    If you say well there was one storm called Sandy and Syrian refugees and California drought, well then I’d say that’s highly debatable as to whether increased co2 caused it…it’s the co2 I find questionable. Theres lots of other environmental problems we could agree on, but im focused on increased co2 being a massive and dominant influence on earths climate.

  19. apneaman on Tue, 15th Sep 2015 5:30 pm 

    “What is underway, exactly? Did the sea swallow Bangladesh? Did a giant desert cover the globe? Endless giant storms ravage the lands?”

    That’s right! Most of that shit is under way. It’s a process and it has happened before. Your one day hollywood movie scenario is just another straw man. Bangladesh has already lost plenty of land and even more has been rendered useless farming from repeated from salt water intrusion. Miami and most of south Florida will be abandoned within a couple decades. Maybe sooner if they run out of money for their non stop efforts to hold the seas back. Going on as I type. I don’t care what you consider debatable. Science and the scientific method is the best set of tools we have and they easily (Jr high science) demonstrate the greenhouse gas effect and show that the previous 14 extinction periods have all been preceded and or included massive releases of CO2 from volcanisim. This time we are the volcano. Physics and chemistry do not care – they have no worldview. It’s simple cause and effect and there is a lot more effect coming that is already baked in.

    Everything you need to know about Mass Extinction, Sea Level Rise and Amplification

    Peter D. Ward, Ph.D., is a paleontologist and professor of Geological Sciences at the University of Washington. Ward specializes in the Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction event (the one that killed the dinosaurs), the Permian-Triassic extinction event, and mass extinctions in general. He was elected as a fellow of the California Academy of Science in 1984 and has been nominated for the Schuchert Medal, an award of the Paleontological Society. Ward has written many books including Under a Green Sky: Global Warming, the Mass Extinctions of the Past, and What They Can Tell Us About Our Future and The Flooded Earth: Our Future In a World Without Ice Caps.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r4jKo2-dS4M

  20. apneaman on Tue, 15th Sep 2015 5:35 pm 

    Climate Change Deniers Present Graphic Description Of What Earth Must Look Like For Them To Believe

    WASHINGTON—Evoking cataclysmic scenes of extreme weather and widespread drought and famine, the nation’s climate change deniers held a press conference Wednesday to describe exactly what the Earth must look like before they will begin to believe in human-induced global warming.

    The group of skeptics, who said that the consensus among 97 percent of the scientific community and the documented environmental transformations already underway are simply not proof enough, laid out the precise sequence and magnitude of horrific events—including natural disasters, proliferation of infectious diseases, and resource wars—they would have to witness firsthand before they are swayed.

    “For us to accept that the average surface temperature of the Earth has risen to critical levels due to mankind’s production of greenhouse gases, we’ll need to see some actual, visible evidence, including a global death toll of no less than 500 million people within a single calendar year,” said spokesperson William Davis, 46, of Jackson, NJ, who added that at least 70 percent of all islands on the planet would also have to become submerged under rising seas before he and his cohort would reconsider their beliefs. “To start, we’re going to have to see supercell tornadoes of category F4 or higher ripping through Oklahoma at least three times a day, leveling entire communities and causing hundreds of fatalities—and just to be perfectly clear, we’re talking year-round, not just during the spring tornado season.”

    Davis went on to say that certain events, such as massive, uncontrollable wildfires across the U.S—not just restricted to the American West, but in areas including Florida and New England—would render climate change deniers open to reevaluating the decades’ worth of data that show the planet is warming at a catastrophic rate. Additionally, Davis said that for the community to begin believing a single word of any scientific journal article corroborating climate change, every one of Earth’s glaciers would have to retreat at a rate exceeding 20 miles per year, and each of the skeptics, individually, would have to go a decade without seeing naturally occurring ice anywhere.

    Furthermore, climate change deniers maintained that if the total number of plant and animal species on the planet remained higher than 200 in aggregate, they would not be dissuaded from their belief that Earth is simply experiencing one of its natural warming cycles that would eventually resolve itself on its own.

    “I don’t think it’s too much to ask to see a super hurricane destroying the Southeast U.S. and another one at the same time decimating the Pacific Northwest before I make up my mind about this,” said global warming skeptic Michelle Wilkinson of Medina, MN, adding that she would be willing to recognize the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change if repeated and unpredictable storm surge flooding rendered every major East Coast city, including Boston, New York, Philadelphia, and Washington, D.C., wholly uninhabitable. “The fact of the matter is that if I walk outside at any time of day at any point in the year and it’s below 90 degrees, then there simply isn’t enough proof that we need to be cutting carbon emissions.”

    After clarifying that the desertification of major population centers, and the global refugee crisis that would result, would be necessary but not sufficient evidence of climate change, the skeptics reportedly unveiled a vivid artist’s rendering of the vast expanse of parched, lifeless earth and dead trees that each of them must see through the windows of their homes before reversing their opposition to public schools teaching children about global warming.

    “We keep hearing all this mumbo-jumbo about the sixth mass extinction we’re in the midst of,” said Mitch McConnell, a U.S. senator from Kentucky, at the conclusion of the press conference. “Well, if that’s the case, then tell me this: Why aren’t the streets littered with human bodies right now, with the ragged bands of the still-living siphoning the moisture from the corpses of the dead?”

    “We’re not unreasonable; we just need the evidence to be convincing before we make a decision,” McConnell added.

    http://www.theonion.com/article/climate-change-deniers-present-graphic-description-51129

  21. apneaman on Tue, 15th Sep 2015 7:15 pm 

    What Megablazes Tell Us About the Fiery Future of Climate Change
    Pervasive drought and record temperatures have turned forests from Fresno to Fairbanks into tinderboxes. And it’s only getting worse

    “In May this year, the nearly unthinkable happened in the Pacific Northwest: The rainforest of the Olympic Peninsula, one of the wettest places on the continent, caught fire. By August, an inferno was stirring in the forests east of the Cascades. A wind-whipped blaze near the mountain town of Twisp, Washington — a “hell storm,” to quote a local sheriff — claimed the lives of three Forest Service fire scouts. That blaze soon exploded into the worst wildfire in state history, charring more than 300,000 acres and destroying dozens of homes.

    As they raged, the wildfires in eastern Oregon and Washington devoured an area nearly the size of Delaware. The states called up more than 1,000 members of their National Guards, and the Army mobilized 200 active-duty troops to the fire lines. Ten Blackhawk helicopters and four C-130 Hercules aircraft deployed to help fight fire from the skies. With Gov. Jay Inslee calling the blazes an “unprecedented cataclysm,” Washington even deputized citizen volunteers to fight the fires, where they joined professional crews from as far away as Australia and New Zealand.

    This is the present, and the future, of climate change. Our overheated world is amplifying drought and making megafire commonplace. This is happening even in the soggy Pacific Northwest, which has been hard-hit by what’s been dubbed a “wet drought.” Despite near-normal precipitation, warm winter temperatures brought rain instead of snow to the region’s mountains. What little snow did hit the ground then melted early, leaving the Northwest dry — and ready to burn in the heat of summer.”

    http://www.rollingstone.com/culture/features/what-megablazes-tell-us-about-the-fiery-future-of-climate-change-20150915

  22. idontknowmyself on Tue, 15th Sep 2015 7:33 pm 

    apneaman you look mentally unstable by putting global warming link everywhere and cutting and pasting what other blogger wrote.

    Why don’t you put a link of Algore prediction that never happen instead.

  23. sugarseam on Tue, 15th Sep 2015 7:39 pm 

    didn’t come true? wow… I’d say it’s already unfolding right before our eyes… We don’t call them “cons” for nothing.

  24. Makati1 on Tue, 15th Sep 2015 8:20 pm 

    Well said, Ap. All of your comments hit it on the bulls eye as do most of the others, except the zoid who has no clue or is a total corporate/government bot. And maybe a few other in denial.

  25. apneaman on Tue, 15th Sep 2015 8:25 pm 

    idontknowshit, because Al Gore is not a scientist. See that is another thing you did not know – the difference between an elite politician and a scientist. I would not know what Al Gore said since I never watched his little movie or any article or interviews he has done regarding AGW. So is there some new rule about posting links I am not aware of? You better get to work and tell the rest of the internet about it.

  26. dubya on Tue, 15th Sep 2015 10:39 pm 

    “humans don’t just use up resources. We make up more.”

    That took 3 seconds. I think I have wasted enough time on this knowledgeable gentleman.

  27. Fat Lady on Tue, 15th Sep 2015 11:23 pm 

    Baily does point out the folly of ethanol production. Mostly comes across as smug with broad based talking points ignoring what is going on in the real world. Baily sounds like he would appeal to environmental deniers that want to believe that humans were put on earth as the highest form of life and that humans can only progress forward, forever, improving life as we know it.

  28. apneaman on Wed, 16th Sep 2015 1:23 am 

    Hot air melting the Arctic

    Around 700 new ‘methane holes’ found in the Arctic shelf by Russian scientists show how fast these emissions are heating up the region. Given the scale of hot air emissions, it is likely the permafrost has been severely degraded, and the thaw irreversible.

    http://in.rbth.com/economics/technology/2015/09/15/hot-air-melting-the-arctic_396863

  29. apneaman on Wed, 16th Sep 2015 1:27 am 

    Marine population halved since 1970 – report

    http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-34265672

  30. joe on Wed, 16th Sep 2015 4:51 am 

    Frogs in pots, increasing the heat by 1 degree a minute and there they will sit, happily until they are fully cooked. Ha ha ha!

  31. apneaman on Wed, 16th Sep 2015 5:32 pm 

    A Deep Dive into What Exxon Knew About Global Warming and When (1978) it Knew It

    http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/09/16/a-deep-dive-into-what-exxon-knew-about-global-warming-and-when-1978-it-knew-it/?_r=1

  32. Apneaman on Thu, 17th Sep 2015 2:14 pm 

    How Humans Cause Mass Extinctions

    “A pretty no-nonsense delineation of the present situation. Speaking plainly about a couple of the root causes of the ever accelerating 6th Mass Extinction: unsustainable over consumption and the population bomb. Meanwhile the vast majority of humans ensconced in the life-extinguishing system of death that is Industrial Civilization, can’t wait to have more babies and buy more shit that they don’t need. Without much of a fight as Chris Hedges has said, ” we have surrendered our lives to corporate forces that ultimately serve systems of death.” And we now must reap what we’ve sown.” -OSJ

    https://theoldspeakjournal.wordpress.com/2015/09/17/how-humans-cause-mass-extinctions/

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