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Page added on August 15, 2018
After ‘Peak Water,’ the Days of Plenty Are Over
In a recent paper in Science of The Total Environment, a team of Chinese researchers created a model of the Urumqi No. 1 catchment in Xinjiang, China, and made a surprising discovery. As they sought to estimate the effects of global warming on glacier thinning, retreat and local supply of water resources, they found that the glacier is expected to reach “peak water,” with runoff shrinking by half of its 1980 extent in the next 30 years. The glacier will also lose approximately 80 percent of its ice volume.
As glaciers shrink, runoff increases (with more melting) but then decreases thereafter when the size of the glacier has permanently decreased. Peak water, or the tipping point of glacier melt supply, when runoff in glacier-fed rivers reaches the maximum, is estimated to occur around 2020. This phenomenon shares its concept with the term “peak oil,” which refers to the hypothetical point in time when the global oil production rate will reach maximum capacity. Thereafter, oil production will only decline.
In contrast to peak oil, glacial reserves can be estimated with a higher certainty. Annina Sorg, an independent researcher with expertise in geomorphology, geography and climatology, explained the concept to GlacierHub. “Peak water for a catchment can be assessed with quite good precision if the past climate and glacial volume loss are well known and if reasonable climate models are being used,” she said. This is because, unlike oil, consumption of glacier meltwater does not have a direct impact on glacial melting. Glaciers will continue to melt no matter if the demand for glacial meltwater is high or low.
“Peak water is an important aspect of glacial impact of hydrology, and the term absolutely makes sense,” Matthias Huss, a senior lecturer from the University of Freiburg, expressed in an interview with GlacierHub. “After peak water, annual runoff sums from glaciers will be steadily decreasing, which might cause problems with water availability.”
Huss’s team recently published a paper on the first complete global assessment of when peak water from glaciers will occur. Huss believes the smaller scale study on the Urumqi glacier uses a very similar approach as he did for all 200,000 glaciers globally but with more accurate data for calibration and validation to fit the local context. Both studies also yield consistent findings.
In the arid regions of Central Asia, meltwater from glaciers determine streamflow. Glaciers are not only valuable water sources for the communities around rivers, but can also serve as buffers against droughts during dry periods.
“Conditions are ‘good’ before peak water— we even have more water than in the case of balanced glacier mass budgets. This water can be used for irrigation or hydropower production. However, after peak water, less water is available, most importantly in the summer months, which might have considerable impact on water resource management,” Huss warned.
The story is also more complex in a broader context. Whether water shortage is experienced due to glacier recession strongly depends on the climate regime. In general, glaciers play a more important role when summer climates are dry, as in the case of Xinjiang. Peak water also strongly varies with glacier size, with larger glaciers experiencing later peaks than smaller glaciers.
“As Urumqi Glacier is a relatively small glacier, it might not be fully representative for regional peak water, which is governed by the larger glaciers,” Huss explained.
Still, Sorg holds the view that the abundance of meltwater before peak water “might slow down a society’s attempts to elaborate mitigation measures, which would be needed to handle the second period of decreasing meltwater runoff.”
In the case of Xinjiang, runoff from glacier melting will likely experience a dramatic decrease from 2020 to 2050, post peak water. The east and west branches of Urumqi No. 1 Glacier also have different responses to climate change. By the end of the 21st century, as compared to 1980 rates, the area extent and ice volume of the west branch could decrease by up to 58 and 82 percent, respectively. While at the east branch, glacier area could shrink by 95 percent, losing about 99 percent of its ice volume.
“In my opinion, it is important to spread the term ‘peak water,’ also in popular media, not science alone. It draws awareness to the point that the depletion of glacial reserves is not a continuous process like emptying a bathtub,” Sorg told GlacierHub. Rather, peak water is a period of abundance that Sorg thinks is probably not appreciated enough and is taken for granted.
Sorg concluded with a somber reminder. “After peak water, the days of plenty are over— at least in respect to glacial meltwater availability,” she said. As Xinjiang is very dependent on its glaciers, mitigation measures are required to adapt to glacier mass changes for long-term water security in the region.
31 Comments on "After ‘Peak Water,’ the Days of Plenty Are Over"
makati1 on Wed, 15th Aug 2018 8:07 pm
There is plenty of water but, like money, it is not evenly dispersed. Luckily, humans and animals are not locked into one place and can migrate. THAT is the big problem for the future.
jef on Wed, 15th Aug 2018 8:55 pm
The planet is over 70% water so……no problem right? Wrong!!!!
Only 2.5% is fresh water, the kind humans need to survive. That percentage is rapidly falling as we pump out aquifers, melt off glaciers and snow pack, and rainfall comes all at once flooding then washing out to become saline in the ocean.
Try and migrate out of that pickle.
makati1 on Wed, 15th Aug 2018 9:09 pm
jef, you stopped at the wrong point in the water cycle. That saline water is evaporated into the air where it falls as pure water (rain). The cycle is not broken nor is there less fresh water. It is just that it will not be in the same form and place as we know it now.
My location gets almost 4 meters {12ft) of rain annually. Too much water is the problem here. Human migration is the answer and it is coming.
MASTERMIND on Wed, 15th Aug 2018 9:14 pm
Scientists warn fracking could cause water shortages after usage shoots up by 800% in parts of US
https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/fracking-water-shortage-drought-fossil-fuels-oil-gas-duke-university-a8493451.html
Bloomer on Thu, 16th Aug 2018 12:10 am
Makati I live in a rain forest where we too get a lot of rain. But the trend in the last several years has been heavier rain falls (floods) followed by longer periods of drought. Is this a symptom of a
changing climate who knows. The mountain glaciers on the otherhand, are definitely receding that is undisputable. When they vanish, the rivers and lakes will run dry. Yet we still will be debating on whether the cause is contributed by manmade carbon emissions, sunspots or the Chinese dicking around with our weather.
makati1 on Thu, 16th Aug 2018 12:36 am
Bloomer, some will be denying it, but the most of us know it is happening. Yes, I can see the changes. For instance, so far this typhoon season, they have been forming about 1,000 kilometers north of their usual path. Since the season started two months ago, we have not had one typhoon hit the Philippines. They have all formed and headed for Japan.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic
As you can see, the oceans are warm enough at even northern latitudes to form and support hurricanes and typhoons. We will likely get some before the season ends in December, but, not as many. The weather patterns are changing. I have not seen one form in the Atlantic yet this year either.
Go Speed Racer on Thu, 16th Aug 2018 1:43 am
After Peak Water, we can get by using
more bottled water.
There will be a lot of empty plastic
bottles, but we can put them into a
big heap and set them on fire.
John on Thu, 16th Aug 2018 2:50 am
makati1
You say man made climate change is causing desert. Can you tell us what caused a once lush area 6,000 years ago to become desert?
https://today.tamu.edu/2016/11/29/6000-years-ago-the-sahara-desert-was-tropical-so-what-happened/
If vast areas turn into desert by natural changes how can you tell shat is natural and what is man made?
Also it is very possible to reverse desertification given right resources regardless of CO2 emissions.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vpTHi7O66pI
makati1 on Thu, 16th Aug 2018 3:11 am
“Also it is very possible to reverse desertification given right resources regardless of CO2 emissions.”
BULLSHIT! And that video is no proof of anything. Some techie dreams. Never happen. Cannot happen. Dream on!
As for the Sahara being formed by a change in the earth’s wobble, that is likely to be correct, but it has nothing to do with today. Nothing will be done to change anything, only make it worse.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NeHT8ziM_zc
“When The Sahara Desert Was Green – Full Documentary 2017”
makati1 on Thu, 16th Aug 2018 3:14 am
Humans are destroying the ecosystem, that supports life on this planet, one day at a time, with the West doing the most damage. Nothing will change until there are no humans left on the planet. By 2100, I think, at the latest.
deadly on Thu, 16th Aug 2018 3:42 am
Going to have to shutter the geysers in Yellowstone. Can’t be wasting good water on Old Faithful gushing water from below the surface and then shooting it fifty feet into the air.
Drain Lake Yellowstone, bottle it all.
Probably should save water by sequestering it someplace where nobody can get at it.
Like Mars.
Probably need to ban the use of water to save it from reaching peak.
Something has to be done.
If humans keep doing what they are doing, all of the water is going to be gone.
Can’t have that. Ban water. You’ll need a Water Army to protect water from those filthy humans who think they need water.
All they do is waste it, even drink it.
When will it all end? It won’t, it is going to go on forever like it is.
It is an outrage and something must be done to stop all of these human idiots thinking they can use water until it is all gone.
Like Peak Oil, once water is gone, there will be a collapse of civilization.
The only way to prevent water from depleting to zero is to ban its use.
Water can evaporate and be gone just like that. We can figure out a way to prevent evaporation and rainfall/snowfall, maybe water can be saved after all.
Can’t be too careful guarding the Strategic Water Reserves, aka oceans.
Water change, like climate change, will ruin the planet.
In any event, the goal is to save water, humans must do their part by not using any.
That is the goal.
Davy on Thu, 16th Aug 2018 5:39 am
“As you can see, the oceans are warm enough at even northern latitudes to form and support hurricanes and typhoons. We will likely get some before the season ends in December, but, not as many. The weather patterns are changing. I have not seen one form in the Atlantic yet this year either.”
Come on slip slidin, now you are a meteorologist. The weather pattern are changing but how convenient for you to think you will be getting less Typhoons. The year is young sucker living on the Pacific coast of the P’s with a bullseye on your head. It is likely the weather patterns are now less reliable and more prone to erratic behavior at least in regards to what we are conditioned to. You may get more Typhoons and less depending on the year. Droughts and moisture patterns seem to be lengthening because of the changing face of the Arctic.
Davy on Thu, 16th Aug 2018 5:48 am
“If vast areas turn into desert by natural changes how can you tell shat is natural and what is man made?”
John, you do agree we are doing a significant forcing of the carbon cycle along with planetary land use changes. The changes we are seeing are happening rapidly not like what caused the Sahara to become desert. If I remember correctly that was a slight shift in the Earths wobble. The point is natural changes do occur mostly over long periods, not always because there has been abrupt climate change in the past naturally. Yet, what we are doing by our activity is causing rapid change now to a period that was stable enough to produce human civilization because of agriculture. Yea, we are talking on computers now because of a stable climate regime. Maybe we will get lucky and a natural negative feedback will occur blunt what we are doing but I doubt it because those natural forces that could blunt climate change happen over long periods generally. What we are doing is a huge short term forcing event both with the carbon cycle and the hydrologic cycle. We are doing land changes that are significant also.
JuanP on Thu, 16th Aug 2018 6:49 am
Mak “I have not seen one form in the Atlantic yet this year either.”
And let’s hope it stays like that, at least in Miami. A couple of days ago I was at a farmers’ social gathering and we were all hoping we don’t get hit this year. Last year we got hit by Irma, which was a very minor hurricane by the time it hit Miami, but it took months for us to recover. For local farmers even a small one like that can set you back months or years. Imagine the damage to local fruit tree groves.
Talking about the changing weather patterns that you mentioned; I agree with you. Brazil experienced its first ever South Atlantic tropical storm a few years back. There hasn’t been another yet, but it was a bad omen. I expect that even Uruguay may experience in the future, too. Fortunately, houses in Uruguay are very solid, made with stone, bricks, and concrete, not sticks and cardboard as most in the USA, but the damage would be terrible anyway, though.
Davy on Thu, 16th Aug 2018 7:04 am
Good job juan another stab at a comment. Doesn’t feel better to say something than gum the board up with your loud and foul mouth nonsense? BTW, I will document this comment.
Dredd on Thu, 16th Aug 2018 8:09 am
A worthy concept IMO.
deadly on Thu, 16th Aug 2018 8:49 am
Not as hot this summer as the summer of 2013. Not anywhere near it.
Unless it gets much hotter, it won’t equal it.
If it weren’t for all of the fires across the northern hemisphere, it wouldn’t be quite as warm. The heat from the fires creates heat bubbles that move to other geographic regions.
All states east of California should sue the state government of California for causing a heatwave due to excess forest fires.
Somebody is to blame, point fingers at the west coast loonies.
There is a price to pay. The carbon emissions are red-lined, the needle is pegged.
California, British Columbia, Montana, Utah, Oregon, Washington, Colorado included, all should be fined billions.
GregT on Thu, 16th Aug 2018 11:08 am
B.C. declares state of emergency as heavy smoke from its wildfires blanket Alberta cities
“The smoke has been so severe in places it has turned day into night.”
https://calgaryherald.com/news/canada/cp-newsalert-b-c-declares-state-of-emergency-over-wildfires-2/wcm/5225cf8c-c836-48bf-a546-e65873ff4e4d
Davy on Thu, 16th Aug 2018 11:56 am
Good boy Greggie, keep making an effort at contributing. There is hope for you.
Anonymouse1 on Thu, 16th Aug 2018 12:54 pm
Exceptionalturd, go find something to do, anything. Go stare at the piles of trash dotting your ‘farm’, and contemplate actually cleaning up some of it (someday). Or maybe, give some food and water to those goats you’ve been abusing for years. Or maybe hang a door on your outhouse. You know…anything. But put down that your discount cellphone, and, you know, get lost.
No one wants or needs or here.
You need to find something to occupy your time, in the real world dumbass, since you wont seek mental health care. You constant claims that you are a ‘moderator’ and ‘document..er’ here, has only succeeded at making you an even bigger laughing stock than you already are.
Btw, when you say ‘document’ do you mean , on your discount cell phone? Or do you use old newspapers, the margins of unpaid invoices you get in the mail, or old wrapping paper and whatnot? If you use old scraps of paper, after you have ‘documented’ (whatever), do you paste it to the walls of your shack and coat the walls ceilings from top to bottom?
Like crazy people do in the movies? Are you like that exceptionalturd?
Davy on Thu, 16th Aug 2018 1:04 pm
Shut up Asperger you are not even worth my time to read your drivel. Here is the important issue when was you last real contribution to this forum? Drum role for the douchebag:
Anonymouse1 on Sat, 28th Jul 2018 2:02 pm
Dumbass, are you capable of an intelligent comment is the question. We know you can copy and paste trolling material. How hard is that?
GregT on Thu, 16th Aug 2018 1:13 pm
Great comment Anonymouse1, the board thanks you for your intelligent and considerate contribution.
Sissyfuss on Thu, 16th Aug 2018 2:31 pm
To throw a little subject on this conflagration I’ve read that the function of the hydrological cycle is to balance the distribution of said H2O. I read a lot and I’ve also read that they are discovering with the latest gear, massive, underground oceans of freshwater that we’ll need, possibly soon. The water that I am most concerned about is that which is being consumed while battling in the frying West. In the US our migration problems will become largely internal.
DerHundistLos on Thu, 16th Aug 2018 5:14 pm
Deadly:
I’m sorry to learn about your friend who died from Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease. Yes, it’s a horrible way to go. Unfortunately, it appears we are at the beginning of a pandemic of prion disease. May I ask if it’s known how he contracted the disease?
jawagord on Thu, 16th Aug 2018 6:58 pm
Rain and snow are the primary sources of river water, not glaciers. Mountain glaciers simply slow the release of water in the hydrological cycle. If you need to store water build a dam.
“Glaciers exert a direct influence on the hydrologic cycle by slowing the passage of water through the cycle. Like lakes and groundwater reservoirs, glaciers are excellent natural storehouses, releasing water when it is needed most. Glaciers, however, can release water when you need it least. Glacier-outburst floods, called jökulhlaups, can be devastating. Glacier-fed rivers reach their peak during hot summer weather.”
deadly on Thu, 16th Aug 2018 7:43 pm
Derhund, to answer the question:
it is believed he contracted the disease through a pathway of spoiled chicken. His refrigerator failed, the frozen foods thawed, was then possibly exposed via that route. The cat never wanted anything to go to waste and ate the possibly infected chicken. Nobody really knows. He also ate a lot of beef, who knows what took place in the food chain.
The etiology is a conundrum, really, and random, sporadic distribution throughout the human population is somewhat of a mystery, including how the disease exists in humans.
It didn’t take long to go from occasional seizures to a fully unconscious state at any time.
In less than four months time, he could not utter a word. He would understand and crack a weak smile. Sad, you don’t want to go that way.
Eventually, the disease wreaks havoc with the brain and nervous system, zero hand eye coordination, you won’t be able to feed yourself and he couldn’t, then death occurs.
The prognosis is grim, ten months later, it was all over.
Permavillage on Thu, 16th Aug 2018 7:51 pm
Peak Everything includes Peak Water I guess…
deadly on Thu, 16th Aug 2018 7:55 pm
Here is how John Hopkins explains it:
CJD. A person can inherit this condition, in which case it’s called familial CJD. Sporadic CJD, on the other hand, develops suddenly without any known risk factors. Most cases of CJD are sporadic and tend to strike people around age 60. Acquired CJD is caused by exposure to infected tissue during a medical procedure, such as a cornea transplant. Symptoms of CJD (see below) quickly lead to severe disability and death. In most cases, death occurs within a year.
CJD
deadly on Thu, 16th Aug 2018 10:01 pm
Johns Hopkins, not John Hopkins.
DerHundistLos on Fri, 17th Aug 2018 2:39 am
CJD, sCJD, nvVJD, vCJD, CWD Mad Deer Disease, BSE Mad Cow Disease, TSE, Alzheimer’s and so on are all names of the SAME basic 100% fatal disease conditions caused by ‘misfolded proteins’ known as prions. Scientists now understand they are all directly related to one another. These misfolded proteins seat themselves in the host brain and immediately begin to turn it into hole-filled sponge-like material. The only appreciable difference between prions seems to be which part of the brain is turned to mush.
In the only published research of its type, the brains of approximately 65 Alzheimer’s victims were analyzed. About 25 of the brains showed death by ‘CJD’… classic prion disease…and not what is called ‘Alzheimer’s’ Disease. The point: if about 38% of Alzheimer’s deaths were caused by CJD, where is it coming from?? What of Alzheimer’s itself? What is at work destroying the brain? Prions? YES. Alzheimer’s is marked by an accumulation of amyloid, an abnormally folded protein which forms fibrils. Fibrils are abnormal strings of proteins clumped together; the fibrils accumulate because they are difficult for the body’s natural defenses to remove. These ‘rogue’ proteins – prions – are virtually indestructible. Hundreds scientific reports, studies and papers describe how prions cannot be frozen to death, do not respond to ANY antibiotics or chemical treatments and withstand temperatures of approximately 1000 degrees F.
Autoclaves, upon which medicine and dentistry rely to sterilize all reusable invasive instruments, operate at around 250 degrees…far too low to even approach destroying these killer proteins – which one leading and extremely perplexed British scientist recently described, only half in jest, as not being from this planet. There may be more truth to his offhand remark than he realized. The ONLY study ever done (or released to the public…) on invasive, reusable medical (tonsillectomy) instruments in the UK, over 50% of the instruments were found to be contaminated with deadly prions AFTER REPEATED STERILIZATIONS.
CJD/BSE prions are clearly being spread throughout the environment. Prions are linked to the mystery of widespread cattle, horse and many other types of animal mutilations which have been a near constant phenomenon since the late 1960’s.
AS I ALLUDED TO PREVIOUSLY, THE logical conclusion is that ET ‘visitors’ are monitoring the spread of prions in the environment. Humans are very close to making this planet unlivable via pollution and raping of natural resources. Is this the environment fighting back?
Free Speech Forum on Sat, 18th Aug 2018 3:26 pm
Yesterday the government wanted your photo.
Today the government wants your fingerprints.
Tomorrow the government will want your DNA.
Next week the government will want you to register your guns
Next month the government will confiscate your guns.
Next year the government will send you to the concentration camps.
How much are you going to take?
Americans should go hardcore about resisting oppression now.
The police state doesn’t keep you safe. Tyranny actually increases danger because it gives people a false sense of security and leads to more terrorism. The government takes away your right protect yourself, but the state won’t protect you.
The main point of the police state is to crush resistance to the 1%
If there is TSA groping and NSA wiretapping then why is there still terrorism?
Americans should start wearing wigs, disguises, bandages, beards, hats, sunglasses, head scarves, and surgical masks.
Americans should report everyone to the police as terrorists to keep the police busy and to make a mockery of the police state while waking people up about the danger of tyranny.
Americans should get fake ID’s and sell, trade, or give away like candy copies of their birth certificates, Social Security cards, passports, and driver licenses.
Americans should smuggle to avoid taxes and tariffs and make victimless gun possession, prostitution, drugs, licensing, and gambling laws unenforceable.
No one rules if no obeys.
They can’t kill us all.
The government and illegal immigrants don’t obey the law, so why should Americans obey the law and pay taxes that they didn’t vote for?
The USA is no longer a democracy. Everything is illegal and everyone is a criminal. Obeying the law is difficult when the laws constantly change, the laws are contradictory, and our overlords don’t even tell us what the laws are.
Many Americans feel powerless to do anything about the expanding police state, but they can still fight back.
What if Americans just dropped out and stopped supporting US wars, debt, and tyranny?
What if everyone became stateless?
https://www.tucsonweekly.com/tucson/stateless-fear-an-asylum-story/Content?oid=7271045
What if everyone stopped using their name?
What if everyone stopped using banks and started buying gold, bartering, and hiding cash?
What if everyone bought farms using anonymous private shell corporations?
https://boldanddetermined.com/how-own-your-house-car-anonymously/
What if everyone stopped driving cars and getting driver licenses?
What if everyone stopped using phones and the Internet?
What if everyone stopped flying?
What if everyone stopped paying taxes?
What if everyone stopped joining the military?
What if everyone stopped voting?
What if everyone avoided being photographed?
What if everyone took responsibility for themselves and refused to sign up for Obamacare instead of relying on the government?
Maybe the elites want everyone to give up, but at least we won’t be paying them.
Think.
Pass the word.