Peak Oil is You
Donate Bitcoins ;-) or Paypal :-)
Page added on September 21, 2013
A look at global population trends
Too many people is a big problem, but too few is a concern as well.
The story of the 21st century has been one of falling birthrates, rising standards of living, and a revolution in food production. But the global picture is uneven: As populations decline in wealthier nations, in other countries – particularly in Africa, says a new report – they are rising at rates that may mire their people in poverty.
Q: What countries are growing the fastest?
The 10 countries with the highest fertility rates are all in Africa, led by Niger, where women give birth to an average of 7.6 children. Burkina Faso, with a fertility rate of 6 children per woman, is the slowest growing of the 10, all of which are among the world’s poorest countries as well. Recent research by the Population Reference Bureau in Washington projects that Africa’s population will more than double by 2050, from 1.1 billion people today to 2.4 billion. Nigeria, already the most populous nation on the continent with 174 million people, is projected to be the third most populous in the world by 2050, with 440 million, after China and India.
Q: What countries are growing the slowest?
The surprising leader is Bosnia-Herzegovina, with just 1.2 children per woman. The others in the top 10 least-fertile countries all average 1.3 children per woman and include three Asian countries: Taiwan, Singapore, and South Korea. The others are in Europe: Moldova, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Slovakia, and Hungary. The fertility rate in the United States is 1.9 children per woman, which implies a declining population. But America is expected to grow in the coming decades because of immigration.
The average global fertility rate is now 2.5 children per woman, down from almost 5 in 1960.
Q: So does that mean Africa is in trouble and everyone else is not?
Not necessarily. While there are major concerns that population growth will outstrip economic growth in many African countries, many other countries are deeply worried about the possibility of declining populations, which undercut economic growth and leave fewer and fewer workers to provide for systems that will burgeon with retirees.
Even China is worried about the effect of a declining population 35 years after instituting its draconian “one child” policy. China was concerned that it wouldn’t be able to feed its people when it made it illegal for couples to have more than one child and engaged in forced sterilizations and abortions to cut population growth. China’s population, now at 1.35 billion, is expected to drop by 2050.
Q: What are the solutions?
There aren’t any easy ones when it comes to the African countries whose population growth rates are so high. Rising income and education levels lead to lower fertility rates, but accomplishing those first two things is challenging – even more so when a poor country’s limited educational resources are swamped by a vast number of children.
Consider Niger, which the Population Reference Bureau compares to the Netherlands, since both countries have roughly 17 million people today. At the moment, 50 percent of Niger’s population is younger than age 15, compared with 17 percent of the Netherlands’. And given Niger’s extremely low standard of living, parents in Niger have an unfortunate incentive to bear more children: The bureau estimates that 43,000 infants died in Niger last year. In the Netherlands, by contrast, the figure was 650.
Q: Which countries are expected to have the largest populations in 2050?
India, which has 1.3 billion people today, is expected to supplant China in the top spot by then with a projected population of 1.65 billion. The US, though still growing, will fall from its current No. 3 position, with 316 million, even though it will rise to a projected 400 million. That will put it at No. 4, behind Nigeria, which is about one-tenth the size of the US in area.
Ethiopia and Congo are expected to join the top 10 by 2050, pushing out Japan and Russia. Congo‘s population is projected to rise from 71 million today to 182 million, and Ethiopia’s from 89 million now to 178 million.
10 Comments on "A look at global population trends"
J-Gav on Sat, 21st Sep 2013 7:50 pm
Weird little article, though I did pick up a recent stat or two I wasn’t up to date on …
But gimme a break: Ethiopia at 178 million? Congo at 182 million? In 2050?
I won’t say LOL because it isn’t even funny …
Fact is, here in the West, we’re caught between a rock and a hard place. Population doesn’t increase? Who pays for the next generation’s retirement? (well, I guess we all know they’re not getting more than a token one anyway, don’t we). Population increases? Resources deplete exponentially. Experience riding a bucking bronco might come in handy pretty soon, for those able to transpose it onto everyday survival strategies.
Kenz300 on Sat, 21st Sep 2013 8:44 pm
The poorest people are having the most children……….
The connection between their poverty and family size has not sunk in.
If you can not provide for yourself you can not provide for a child.
If you can not afford to put food on the table or a roof over your families head you can not afford another child.
It is about common sense.
actioncjackson on Sat, 21st Sep 2013 9:08 pm
I’m getting tired of these population articles because I see population as an effect, not a cause. Hydrocarbons are the cause, population increases the effect. What is the worst part of having 7 billion people on the planet, that is the question. Is the worst thing about it the environmental toll? Then that would point fingers at the industrialized countries, not the poor and starving people in third world countries. I think the worst part about the population problem is that it was engineered to be so, the whole infinite growth model that encompasses us all.
GregT on Sat, 21st Sep 2013 10:38 pm
If it wasn’t for resource constraints, human population would not be a problem. Considering the fact that it is us, in ‘western societies’ that use 20 times the resources per capita than those in developing countries, it is ‘us’ that is causing most of the problems, not ‘them’. It is only a matter of time until we too will be living with much less.
If you cannot learn to live with one twentieth of your current energy and resource usage, you should not be having children.
It is all about common sense, which unfortunately, isn’t very common.
dashster on Sat, 21st Sep 2013 11:52 pm
“I’m getting tired of these population articles because I see population as an effect, not a cause. ”
I still find it surprising that even on Peak Oil sites people will poo poo population growth.
BillT on Sun, 22nd Sep 2013 1:39 am
GregT, you are on the money!
dashter, Gaia is going to take care of the population problem in her own way and what we do is not going to change that. Death in massive numbers is in the near future for the human race. Peak Oil is going to be her weapon along with nukes, maybe.
In 100,000,000 years or so, it will all be over and there will be a new ecology on the earth without humans.
DMyers on Sun, 22nd Sep 2013 2:13 am
A hundred million years to get rid of us, BillT? Is that what you said? All those zeros are in a blur through my out of date eyeglass prescription. Surely, it won’t take that long!
GregT on Sun, 22nd Sep 2013 2:31 am
The sooner the ‘west’ crashes, the more people that will survive the aftermath of the destruction that we have caused to the Earth.
Most people are only focussed on their own individual experiences, and are not looking at the Big picture. Every year that goes by, with ‘western’ dominated thinking, the more people that Gaia will need to take to maintain her equilibrium, and her equilibrium does not need to include as at all.
We are not in control here, but we are too stupid to figure that out.
BillT on Sun, 22nd Sep 2013 5:43 am
DMeyers, actually, we have maybe 100 years max. Sorry if my sentence wasn’t clear. 100 million years is the time line to bury all of our civilization junk and build a new ecology in a pristine new world. As a video I just watched mentioned: in 100 million years, all that will be left of humans is some stuff on the moon like footprints and a plaque near some vehicles. With no weather or atmosphere, it could last forever there.
Airwicky on Sun, 22nd Sep 2013 1:30 pm
Gaia uses a system that (re)cycles just about everything … I’m pretty sure even the era of humans will show failure to stop this change