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Page added on October 11, 2014
2030, This Is the End.
Will it really be “The End” like The Doors were telling us back in the seventies or will it not?
Today we have enough data about our ecosystems to make sound decisions that could potentially shift the needle slightly towards the better end. In a world where most of us do not have time to read studies explaining that 2030 is the year of a major shift in our planetary systems we have to question ourselves as to what comes next?
For the past forty two years Donella Meadows, Jorgen Randers and Dennis Meadows spent their time explaining that 2030 was the expected year for a planetary system collapse in their book and study called The Limits to Growth. Not another dot com bubble or financial crisis. No, a system collapse. Not enough food to feed us all due to depleted soil, no more fish to catch due to ocean acidification and overfishing activities, not enough drinkable water for all due to pollution, climate change and over population, no more raw materials to keep the pace of our throughput based industrial systems and so on. Thanks to their World 3 computerized model the authors of The Limits to Growth explained countless times that we cannot go on beyond the earth carrying capacity without heading towards a major cliff, the one that will see a tragic and endless decline in world population. And we are talking about three to four billions of people dying here (!), and most certainly the weakest and the poorest (again!) first.
Who has reacted to that strong warning call? Other highly regarded institutes in the world such as American Scientist, The Club of Rome or the Australian Governmental Scientific Research Agency have all confirmed that the numbers and projections are not only right but extremely accurate since 1972! The thing is that we are not programmed to address long term challenge, be it disastrous for our specie. We are too optimistic about stories that always end well. According to our level of understanding of what a sustainable world should or could look like we have only recently realized that most answers have been in front of us ever since: mimicking nature, its key principles and that complexity of systems is the norm, not the exception. But yet a world as described in Natural Capital: The Next Industrial Revolution by Paul Hawken, Amory B. Lovins and L. Hunter Lovins — where cities have become peaceful through careful green design is great in principle but does not always take into consideration the many divergent views at several levels and groups — societal & cultural, political & financial, etc. — that do not see their interests in this new kind of world. 2030 is tomorrow and we have not been able to commonly react for the past forty two years. Why would we react quicker within the remaining sixteen years? Why will it be different this time?
We have had enough signs of warning of a soon-to-come collapse of our systems. The convergence of the end of oil, the resource scarcity, the explosion of the population, the climate change and the planetary boundaries are just too large and too wide in sizes to be stopped so easily and in a coordinated fashion. We also know where the climate change tipping points are: the Arctic ice cap melting no longer playing its mirroring role keeping us within the cooler temperature zones, the methane release menace should the ice caps be gone and the ocean acidification threatening the entire fish food chain from the extinction — due to the disappearance of plankton, at the base of the food chain. Yet we are still in a business-as-usual mode, still waiting for governments to act, still consuming as if we knew nothing. And we know nothing. Most of the people questioned around us are not aware of any of such major collapse. They know that climate change seems real, so what? Until when shall we stay in this status quo? Shall we pray and count for “the” technology that would be saving us? We also know that technology only is far from being enough…
There are breakthrough concepts out there known for several decades but recently made visible and implemented at a wider scale: Biomimicry, Cradle-to-Cradle, Natural Capital, etc. and the overarching concept of the Circular Economy that is taking off in many countries from China, Japan to Germany, the Netherlands, France and the UK. Circular Economy is an industrial economy that is restorative by intention and design. This means that every concerted efforts aim at designing waste out from the early conception of a product to its never ending subsequent lives, therefore many cash-flows too. This model attracts lots of attention as this is about economics and profit maximisation. We have just realized that the longer the life of a product the more money we can make (the lesser the impact on the environment too by the way!). New business models and innovative ideas abound. This is great and all very positive. We should pursue down that track at fast speed but is profit maximisation the only other alternative we found to shift from one capitalist model to another other one? How about focusing on value creation and collective actions instead? Also will Circular Economy be enough to answer our big question: Quid of 2030?
According to the World 3 Model we are ahead of the projections in food output per capita, this is bad news. Predictions for 2030 see the population reaching a peak at 8.5 to 9.5 billion people and then drop radically below 4 billion. Even if we try to delay the cliff few decades down the line the decline will be even sharper. Man is a Wolf to Man. This saying has never been so true… Are you still doubting? Take a look at Paul Chefurka’s website where he defined what he called “Climbing the Ladder of Awareness.” Check your level of awareness, and find out whether you are “Dead asleep” or if you have reached the depressing stage five “Awareness that the predicament are encompasses all aspects of life”?
In a world where we spend time and money issuing corporate reports — that are the best tools to protect companies’ image and reputation from their highly damaging externalities — one can only fear that none of these great concepts will fly high enough to divert the curves of “tomorrow.” Besides these breakthrough concepts many others need to be implemented in parallel addressing all fields of our economic systems: our financial systems require a dramatic shift, like for instance the one as suggested in Sacred Economy from Charles Eisenstein, but also “Changing the Way We Tend to Think” as explained by Stephen Sterling, changing our political systems, our social systems and all others frameworks that govern our way of living. Will we be able to revolutionize our many worlds in time?
Similar to the debate on whether we have entered the Anthropocene era — where humans have overthrown other species — should we also be looking at how Homo Sapiens will evolve and adapt itself to post-2030 many clashes that will last until the 22nd century and beyond? Will we become that specie able to repair our ecosystem while developing survival features i.e. sustaining itself with far less resources than available today? And obviously including a self-correcting system that do not allow one specie to overthrow others? This could be a better end. One thing is for sure, we will not be here to see it.
31 Comments on "2030, This Is the End."
Davy on Sat, 11th Oct 2014 7:23 am
Is it an unwritten understanding in journalism that dooming is OK if it is 2030 or beyond? I see every indication 3 to 5 years should be the doom envelope. I see a low probability of 10 years but that is acceptable because it is still realistic. If you use 2030 that creates a low threshold of fear. This is good for BAU stability but it is bad for risk mitigation strategies. I guess if we clarify what the end is. I am talking the end of BAU, population growth, and complexity growth at a minimum. Personally I think we are on the cusp now of a complexity descent. There has been nothing new happen only repackaging of the old to dazzle us into thinking technology will save us. What we could see new and exciting is a spiritual transformation or at least the seed of one. This would represent our rebirth. This is why it is so important for those of you here to create monasteries of knowledge for a postmodern era. We cannot save nor transform BAU into something with a future but we can shape the post BAU world. Population shaving shows us few are capable of leaving something for the rebirth. Only a few have bought into postmodern. Only a few percent of the population are at this level because of a variety of shaving principals like age, education, ethics, economic affiliation, and mental freedom. Many of us on this board and other similar ones know what can be lost and what needs to be saved. We know what resilience and sustainability need to be when complexity is lost. At this point it is about leaving something for the rebirth. We must also have mitigation strategies so we even have the chance to influence the rebirth. This may sound fruity and granola to the corns but it is simple heroics each of us can practice in our own little world.
Plantagenet on Sat, 11th Oct 2014 7:47 am
15 more years of BAU would be quite welcome, actually. No sense rushing into things….
Makati1 on Sat, 11th Oct 2014 7:53 am
Davy, I just looked outside to see if it was snowing here in Manila. Why? Because we almost agree on the general scenario you outlined, down to the timeline. For the sake of my grand kids, and yours, I hope it all collapses sooner rather than later so they have something to rebuild a decent life with. If it stretches on too long, I fear that war will undo that possibility.
ghung on Sat, 11th Oct 2014 7:57 am
There is no “we” or “us”, not when it comes to recognising and confronting our rather complex set of predicaments. ‘We’ comes in after the facts of this situation become un-ignorable, as in ‘we’, collectively, are screwed.
Makati1 on Sat, 11th Oct 2014 7:59 am
Plantagenet, did you see the article I referenced earlier?
http://www.theautomaticearth.com/us-shale-and-the-slippery-slopes-of-the-law/
I suggest you read this and then reevaluate your timeline possibilities. Do you think this can go on much longer and what the result will be when it ends? 2015? 2016? Certainly before 2018.
I hope you are preparing…
Davy on Sat, 11th Oct 2014 8:26 am
Mak, the best we can do is one “son-of-a-BITCH to another in a guarded doomer embrace. If you remember Patton with George C. Scott toasting with the Russian general when the allies linked up. You have your mission and I mine. For the most part they overlap because we are both doomers. That is were it ends.
meld on Sat, 11th Oct 2014 8:31 am
2030 is the new 2012, meanwhile the collapse gathers pace and nobody notices.
pat on Sat, 11th Oct 2014 8:42 am
the collapse ripples have already seen begin only see get accelerating in 2015.
rockman on Sat, 11th Oct 2014 9:20 am
I think some folks should take a trip to some of the sh*t holes I’ve spent time in. The “end” had already come to many tens of millions many years ago. In fact many were born into the “end”. They need to be more honest and say what they really mean: the “end” for the important people. And even with that qualification there’s the “really important” people who won’t see the “end” and the “less important” second tier folks who will start to feel the pinch.
Of course, we know who gets to make that distinction.
paulo1 on Sat, 11th Oct 2014 9:43 am
I accept that BAU is almost over, mostly due to absolute chicanery in a globally integrated system, but ‘The End’, I am sceptical.
Many people will endure and perhaps many will die as we all will, regardless. I just think people will be limping along doing their best.
As for financial collapse, etc…and all that it entails, I just hope it happens before cars are out driving themselves, before drones deliver packages, before another dumbing down device is called smart, and before Donald Trump and Dick Cheny finally croak. Our way of life is definitely, negotiable.
Paulo
Aspera on Sat, 11th Oct 2014 10:37 am
rock: Agreed. I’ll channel Ursula Le Guin here who said that, in her life, the world as she knew it had ended many times.
Even Tainter mentions how the “support populations” weren’t affected in the same way by the collapse of the Roman Empire as were the citizens in the Imperial cities. Of course, there was chaos between the small villages and hamlets that lasted, I’m told, for some considerable time…
ghung: I agree. We are screwed comes later. But maybe before (for those who see what’s coming) and later (for those who make it through) and on a local scale, might the permaculture saying of “Blame no one, Expect no help, and Do something” apply?
Lore on Sat, 11th Oct 2014 12:01 pm
It doesn’t matter, rich or poor, in the end humanity will be bailing water from the same sinking boat.
Plantagenet on Sat, 11th Oct 2014 12:51 pm
@Makatai
I just read the article you linked to. Hyping oil and mineral plays is nothing new. I hope you haven’t personally been taken in by the hucksters
—always remember
—caveat emptor
J-Gav on Sat, 11th Oct 2014 1:51 pm
Well said Davy – and others. But your writing in particular seems to have become both calmer and edgier at the same time. I wouldn’t say that constitutes a paradox but it’s interesting.
As for the 2030 mention, don’t forget that most articles put really bad news off to at least 2050 or 2100. I may agree with you that a possibly major ‘hit’ within the next few years is likely but 2030 must already be seen as some sort of ‘progress’ in that respect.
Meaningful reform of BAU being next to impossible as things stand, a loud crashing sound seems inevitable. Just how loud, how far and how fast it goes is debatable.
J-Gav on Sat, 11th Oct 2014 2:03 pm
Pat – True, the ripples are visible – for those with open eyes ..
Makati – I also read The Automatic Earth and Ilargi’s latest on the situation(s) in Europe is not particularly optimistic: The European Union (should I add, “As we know it?”) seems to have the sword of Damocles hanging over it by whatever thread or horse-hair it remains aloft.
J-Gav on Sat, 11th Oct 2014 3:07 pm
file:///C:/Users/Jim/Desktop/Europe%20And%20Japan%20Update%20%20Time%20To%20Be%20Very%20Afraid%E2%80%94There%E2%80%99s%20Going%20To%20Be%20Carnage%20Out%20There%20_%20David%20Stockman%27s%20Contra%20Corner.htm
J-Gav on Sat, 11th Oct 2014 3:21 pm
My computer just conked out completely, refusing to obey my commands, so I’ll try that link again:
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/europe-and-japan-update-time-to-be-very-afraid-theres-going-to-be-carnage-out-there/
JuanP on Sat, 11th Oct 2014 3:35 pm
Davy “This is why it is so important for those of you here to create monasteries of knowledge for a postmodern era.”
I am in the process of buying books as a gift for my friends’ library in Uruguay. Only thing I could think of for someone that already has everything they want.
This are the books I’ve bought so far. Suggestions are welcome.
Ball Blue Book of Conserves
ABOK
When there is no doctor and dentist
Square foot gardening
Mini farming
SAS survival manual
The World Until Yesterday by Jared Diamond
Seed to Seed by Suzanne Ashworth
Carrots love tomatoes
Great garden companions
The vegetable gardener’s bible
Vertical gardening
The complete compost gardening guide
Davy on Sat, 11th Oct 2014 4:19 pm
Juan, the Square foot Gardening is on my list to buy and will be put to use in 2015
GregT on Sat, 11th Oct 2014 5:43 pm
Interesting Juan,
Many of those titles are already in my ‘library’.
Here are a few more:
How to Save Your Own Seeds
Home Remedies That Work
Wild Edible Mushrooms
Edible and Medicinal Plants of Canada
The Homesteading Handbook
Canadian Wood Frame House Construction
GregT on Sat, 11th Oct 2014 5:45 pm
J-Gav,
Thank you for providing access to your computer hard drive!
J-Gav on Sat, 11th Oct 2014 6:02 pm
Greg – Not sure there’s much reason for thanks there …
JuanP on Sat, 11th Oct 2014 6:09 pm
Thanks, Greg! Added them to my list. I am going to check them out.
Davy on Sat, 11th Oct 2014 6:13 pm
Gav said – writing in particular seems to have become both calmer and edgier at the same time
Maybe that is my problem “BAU-polar”
Makati1 on Sat, 11th Oct 2014 8:36 pm
I have some books on the shelf that teach the basics, reading, writing, and arithmetic. You don’t think there will be schools in the time after do you? That was a luxury of excess resources.
I also have books on medicine, biology, ecology, and engineering for reference. Again, if you cannot do it yourself, it may never get done.
Latest addition: “Anatomica – The Complete Home Medical Reference” by Ken Ashwell, Firefly publishing, 2010, $39.95, 800+ pages full of useful info and illustrations.
BTW: Do you have sutures and scalpels in your first aid kit? Do you know how to clean out a wound and close it up? Do you have the materials? Maybe a first aid class is needed?
How about a series of reading glasses in increasing strength? Do you really think your eyes will not go bad with age? Will optometrists and lens makers be there when you need them? I currently use 2.50 strength reading glasses (cost P99 or $2 ea.). I have several of all strengths for the future and for others. Think ahead, or don’t you plan to get older and be able to read those books you stored? Think…
Makati1 on Sat, 11th Oct 2014 8:52 pm
Plantagenet, I have had three trips to casinos in my life. I spent $20 at each one. I NEVER played in the Stock Market Casino. Stocks/bonds never appealed to me. Today all are a losing proposition, if you don’t own a super computer tied to the exchange. I’m waiting got the plunge to DOW 5000, or less, that will start the end.
Makati1 on Sat, 11th Oct 2014 8:53 pm
LOL … “I’m waiting FOR the plunge…”
JuanP on Sun, 12th Oct 2014 8:22 am
Thanks, Mak. I have surgical tools and supplies, including sutures and scalpels. I have to buy surgical glue, IV drips, and more stuff to keep improving it. I practice suturing on pork skin.
Makati1 on Sun, 12th Oct 2014 9:15 am
JuanP, you would make a good neighbor. Keep thinking and doing.
sunweb on Mon, 13th Oct 2014 3:31 am
Juan/GregT – I have been building a library since the early 70s.
Herbals and Materia Medicas (my oldest 1888)
Engineering books
Construction books
Vet books (older kind)
Numerous gardening/orcharding
Wells
Basic chemistry, biology, physics,geology
Mythologies of the world
Psychology (one of my professions)
History
Anthropology
hand tools, hand tools hand tools
to name some
Nony on Mon, 13th Oct 2014 7:51 pm
They keep saying it is going to be further out.