The global oil and natural gas industry is beginning its long-awaited recovery, but crude oil prices likely will remain in the “$50 orbit” during the third quarter, energy expert Daniel Yergin said Monday.
The IHS Inc. vice chairman who often hobnobs with world energy leaders, shared the stage with Canada Natural Resources Minister Jim Carr at the Canada 2020 event in Ottawa.
“Our view is that the recovery has begun in the oil markets,” Yergin said of IHS research. The past two years proved that “price is really powerful. It has lowered the amount of supply coming in and increased demand.” If a minimum $50/bbl price is sustained until September, it would signal “kind of in the beginning of a recovery” after falling from highs near $100/bbl in the second half of 2014.
Yergin said the world’s energy powers view oil and gas differently than only a few years ago. He recently returned from a trip to the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia, which is undergoing an evolution toward less dependence on oil. The meeting earlier this month of members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) was not an “obit for OPEC,” rather it “restored the credibility” as a new secretary general took over (see Shale Daily, May 9). OPEC is continuing to let the markets balance prices.
“What is striking is the change in thinking in the region,” Yergin said. “It’s reflected in this vast reform program in Saudi Arabia,” led by the 30-year-old crown prince. He saw it in other Middle Eastern countries as well, many of which are moving to diversify their economies beyond dependence on oil and gas sales.
“Now the grandchildren are in charge, and they want to monetize the oil, diversify it,” he said. “Partly it’s a question about more competition, but the other thing is what happens when you budget at $100/bbl and it’s $40 or $50 and you’ve got all these commitments. They were making their economies more resilient, more diversified..mixing of the old and the new.”
For example, he noted that Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund recently invested in U.S.-based Uber, the car-booking app to generate growth and aid transportation sectors, which in turn would help the oil-dependent economy.
Geopolitically, the Middle East remains “quite turbulent,” which is not reflected in the oil price because of the abundant supplies. However, global markets are becoming more competitive, and it’s not only the oil producers competing with each other “but it’s natural gas, electricity, renewables, electric cars…they all are competing in each other’s territory.”
North America’s supple oil and gas resources are a “really important development,” which has strengthen the United States, Canada and Mexico.
“Although there have been some glitches in the U.S.-Canadian energy relationship in recent years, overall it’s been quite positive,” Yergin said.
“In general, it’s quite remarkable…That’s important…What I’m struck by is how integrated the economies are…” For instance, U.S. gas exports to Mexico have given the country “less expensive energy…As integration proceeds, it is very beneficial…”
IHS scenarios for North America oil and gas are divided into rivalries between the United States and Canada continuing, an “intensification” of the competition, as it is today, or autonomy. In the autonomy scenario, IHS foresees “a lot more distributed energy,” and by 2040, 25% of the automobile market is electric.
Wind and solar energy “were born in the 1970s,” but only in the last few years have they become more competitive with oil and gas, he said. Shale gas “began in the early 1980s,” and by 2004, there were substantial breakthroughs. Are there more to come?
“I’m pretty sure there are people working on things today that we don’t see, that will be a surprise.” One possibility is carbon capture and storage, still in early stages, expensive and complex. The issue is, how to get it to scale?
“We need a new industry called ‘big carbon,'” Yergin said. “We are really getting good at some of the things we are working on and other ways to capture carbon,” noting that ExxonMobil Corp. recently announced it is working with Fuel Cell Energy Inc. to link carbon capture at power plants to fuel cells (see Daily GPI, May 6).
In all things energy-related, the most important breakthroughs are related to lower costs, Yergin said. Companies now have “cheap oil,” but they “still talk about lower costs. That’s much more of a fundamental focus…They used to chase barrels. Now they chase efficiency.”
Dredd on Thu, 9th Jun 2016 6:18 am
Yippie !
More water downtown (The Warming Science Commentariat – 5).
Anonymous on Thu, 9th Jun 2016 7:17 am
Bullkshit says: Yergin said the world’s energy powers view oil and gas differently than only a few years ago. He recently returned from a trip to the Middle East, including Saudi Arabia, which is undergoing an evolution toward less dependence on oil.
You mean the saudi arabia that is pumping oil as fast as it can, and colluded with its jewSraeli friends in washingdum and Jew York to drop oil prices so low even the sauds themselves took a big hit. That saudi arabia? Yes, there certainly is a evolution towards less dependence on oil going on. as in the ‘sauds’ seem determined to pump as much as they can, as fast as they can, for the lowest possible price they can.
But hey, danny jerkins says things are looking up. If they are, its only because the Jewnited states gubmint cant wage this economic price war against Russia Iran, and Venezuela forever. Its hurting the empire as much, if not more, than its intended ‘targets’. If america cant even win an oil price war with all its built-in petrodollar advantages, they really should consider just packing up and calling it quits.
shortonoil on Thu, 9th Jun 2016 8:46 am
““Our view is that the recovery has begun in the oil markets,” Yergin said of IHS research. The past two years proved that “price is really powerful. It has lowered the amount of supply coming in and increased demand. “
Danial Yergin’s view outside his office window may also be of flocks of flying pigs! Demand has been running at historically low levels since 2005. 0.43% per year in comparison to the 1960 – 2005 rate of 5.46% for C&C. “Demand is increasing” is more like “demand is anemic”; the world economy is just not doing very well. Much of the “demand increase” that he is referring to resulted from the Chinese completing their SPR. That project has now been concluded.
“The global oil and natural gas industry is beginning its long-awaited recovery, but crude oil prices likely will remain in the “$50 orbit” during the third quarter, energy expert Daniel Yergin said Monday “
Using ERoEI, and energy density data analysis the full life cycle cost of production for crude now averages $125/ barrel. Stating that receiving 40% of crude’s production cost is resulting in a recovery is an oxymoron. Producers are not recovering; they are just not failing as fast as they were previously.
““but it’s natural gas, electricity, renewables, electric cars…they all are competing in each other’s territory.” “
Of course Mr. Yergin is going to say that EVs are putting pressure on oil. The 2000 year old concept of depletion reducing quality has apparently not reached his desk. Running IHS while still operating in the Dark Ages must be quit a challenge.
http://www.thehillsgroup.org/
Boat on Thu, 9th Jun 2016 8:53 am
You think the US is Jewish? Go down south and count confederate flags in pickup trucks and hanging on houses. Lots more Germans around than Jews.
Stuifzand on Thu, 9th Jun 2016 9:46 am
You are entirely correct Boat, a very astute observation; nobody is going to fool you, so much is clear. There are perhaps 30% Americans of German descent but only 2% of Jewish descent. So the idea that “the US is Jewish” is utterly incorrect. Thanks for pointing that out!
It is the same sort of lunacy of stating that “communism was Jewish” as silly Hitler did. After all, of the 10,000 members of the tiny 1917 Bolshevik party, the party that carried an ideology that eventually would conquer most of the Eurasian landmass (thanks to substantial help from the US gov) merely 360 were Jewish or 3%.
OK, they were all at the top and financed by Jacob Schiff/Wallstreet, but that was a pure coincidence, it really was.
GregT on Thu, 9th Jun 2016 9:57 am
“Go down south and count confederate flags in pickup trucks and hanging on houses.”
Your owners don’t fly confederate flags Boat.
Stuifzand on Thu, 9th Jun 2016 10:02 am
“Your owners don’t fly confederate flags Boat.”
I am sorry Greg but I really am on the side of Boat here. Boat has counted flags, Confederate and Israeli ones and correctly concluded that America is German-controlled. Every inhabitant of Dresden knows that to be the case (assuming he survived the bombing in 1945).
Don’t they teach history in Canada?!
GregT on Thu, 9th Jun 2016 10:15 am
They teach a different version of history in Canada Stui.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/criminalizing-criticism-of-israel-in-canada/5376306
Davy on Thu, 9th Jun 2016 10:25 am
Canadian world history is based first and foremost on anti-Americanism. Canadians inherited the worst of the Brits and we all know what that is except of course Canadians. It’s call an inflated sense of national identity only in Canada’s case it is significantly based upon anti-American undercurrent. Greg is the epitome of this phenomena.
Stuifzand on Thu, 9th Jun 2016 10:33 am
“It’s call an inflated sense of national identity only in Canada’s case it is significantly based upon anti-American undercurrent. Greg is the epitome of this phenomena.”
You are right Davy, anti-Americanism is a disease, which you get from the American government.
http://www.abcnewspoint.com/top-10-list-of-most-hated-countries-in-the-world-2015/
It is better to be a small country, like Holland. Everybody loves us (apart from those who know us better, like the Belgians, who think we are arrogant loud-mouth know-it-alls; a bit like the Germans but worse).
GregT on Thu, 9th Jun 2016 10:45 am
“Canadian world history is based first and foremost on anti-Americanism.”
Yes, every good and loyal Canadian servant still holds a grudge against the French separatist rebels.
Davy on Thu, 9th Jun 2016 10:45 am
We hate ourselves and love ourselves but it is ours to love or hate. I get ill with Canadians that spend their intellectual reflections in an anti-American fog. Why can’t they look in the mirror. Talk about a intellectually broke country.
Apneaman on Thu, 9th Jun 2016 11:06 am
Stuifzand, Holland eh? Don’t you people still have an annual day of remembrance in appreciation of the Canadians who paid in money, blood, and lives to liberate your country from the Nazi’s?
Apneaman on Thu, 9th Jun 2016 11:22 am
Davy, name for us one, just fucking one Canadian history book you have read written by a Canadian historian. I can name hundreds of American history books I’ve read that were written by American historians and authors.
You couldn’t name a Canadian historian if your life depended on it. Like most Americans you don’t have a fucking clue about Canada except what you read on trash sites like clickbait zerohedge. Of course, why would you since most of you don’t even know your own history. Still pulling shit from your ass and calling it fact.
Study: One in Three Americans Fails Naturalization Civics Test
Native-born Americans fare worse on civics exam than immigrants applying for citizenship.
http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/washington-whispers/2012/04/30/study-one-in-three-americans-fails-naturalization-civics-test
Davy on Thu, 9th Jun 2016 11:30 am
Ape hole is the poster child of the worst of Canada all wrapped up in one dumbass. It has been so nice with you gone for a few days. As soon as he Hongcouver boys go online the BS starts and the board degenerates. What pathetic losers the west coast of Canada produces.
Stuifzand on Thu, 9th Jun 2016 11:51 am
@Apey
The Canadians never liberated us, but instead helped adding us to the US empire. The Germans never had the intention to overrun us. The dirty little secret of the German invasion of the Netherlands is that the Dutch government (as well as the Belgian government and the Norwegian government earlier in March 1940) had secretly given in to heavy British (read: Churchill) pressure to abandon neutrality and allow British and French troops overpass to directly attack the Ruhr area via Holland, a casus belli if there ever was one.
As we all remember it were the British and French who declared war on Germany, not the other way around. The Germans never wanted war, not even with Poland. The British and French were forced to declare war on Germany because they had been pressured by the Americans to promises Poland support in case of a German invasion.
http://fotos.fotoflexer.com/2141aee9270ba15befc04a49ffe2c656.jpg
The British and French had hoped that this would keep the Germans from invading Poland. The Germans however were forced to invade because the Poles had begun to slaughter the Germans forced to live in Versailles Poland en wanted to ethnically cleans entire Poland from Germans (in 1945 after the German defeat they would finally carry out their 1939-intensions with consent of the Alllies). The Poles were encouraged to display that behavior because they were emboldened by the Americans and the Franco-British war guarantee to do so. The only ones who really wanted war in Europe were the Americans (not the American public who just like the British in great majority were pro-Hitler, but the US kosher run deep state) and the Soviets, because they both anticipated the end result: dividing the European loot between the two new parvenus if the Germans, British and French could be sicked against each other. The Dutch government (not the Dutch population) got what it deserved.
This is what media zombies like you prefer to believe:
http://tinyurl.com/zhtyxao
But even the NYT on the very same day that the Germans invaded Holland had to present the German view of things (which was the truth) below the article shown above:
http://tinyurl.com/zc4qt28
But the catchy headline (“Nazis invade Holland”) was what the NYT wanted you to remember. After the war the fake Nuremberg show tribunal as well as Hollywood would efficiently brainwash mentally challenged people like you to believe the things that you do.
Here is a very late (1969) confession by the Jewish #1 court historian Lou de Jong, who was paid by the Dutch government to write the Dutch history of WW2:
https://gerard1945.files.wordpress.com/2015/10/09a.jpg
“The Netherlands weren’t really that neutral”
So Apey, thank you for ‘liberating us’, but please don’t do it again.
That doesn’t mean I don’t feel sorry for these Canadian dudes who were send to die in Cloggieland, but they didn’t have a clue, just like you.
Some Dutch-Canadian folklore… girls are hardwired to go with the winners. Predictably the Dutch dudes were far less enthusiastically about the Canadian invasion than the girls. Here a famous song called “Trees heeft een Canadees” (Tracey has a Canadian):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xawvpIgZ7Fs
Enjoy.
Apneaman on Thu, 9th Jun 2016 11:58 am
Well cocksucker from Missouri, that’s another one of your ass pulling facts, since there are only three of us on here from BC, which has a population of just under 5 million. So taking a sample of only three people (me, Greg & Paulo) out of 5 million has led you to your result. See you just made my point for me by proving, yet again, how fucking stupid most mericans are. And you’re one of the ones with a college education?
Have you ever thought that since only 3 out of 5 million are commenting here that I might be one of the nicer ones from BC? How could you possibly know otherwise?
Do you have any other evidence you can provide besides your minutia sampling, which is really just something you made up?
How about a study indicating how mean these BC people are or even a handful of news articles?
Isn’t there a “School of the BC’s” like the “School of the Americas” that trains puppet dictators and their thugs so BC 1%ers can get even richer by exploiting South America folks through torture and murder?
You continue to make these claims, but have not provided any evidence at all. You just keep posting racial slurs (Hongcouver) along with the same tired, regurgitated (for 5 years now) zerohedge article screaming how the Vancouver real estate bubble will pop tomorrow.
Apneaman on Thu, 9th Jun 2016 12:01 pm
Stuifzand, climate denier and holocaust denier – got it.
Stuifzand on Thu, 9th Jun 2016 12:23 pm
“Stuifzand, climate denier and holocaust denier – got it.”
I can’t remember denying the holocaust. That’s forbidden by law.
And there is a good reason for these laws of course, because the obvious truth doesn’t need to be protected by law.
But these laws will evaporate with the evaporation of the US empire, which is immanent.
Davy on Thu, 9th Jun 2016 12:27 pm
Ape hole, dumbass, can’t you see I am just pretending to be Canadian and do as Canadians do. Imitation is the highest form of flattery but in your case it is the highest form of dumbass.
shortonoil on Thu, 9th Jun 2016 12:57 pm
“The only ones who really wanted war in Europe were the Americans (not the American public who just like the British in great majority were pro-Hitler, but the US kosher run deep state) and the Soviets, because they both anticipated the end result: dividing the European loot between the two new parvenus if the Germans, British and French could be sicked against each other “
It looks like you have gotten the Americans confused with a pack called the Rothschild. There where a few Brown Shirts marching in the US in 1939, after the declaration of war they disappeared like mist in the wind. The majority of Americans were never pro Hitler; your imagination is running away with you. The Americans at that point were still very much followers of the ideals of the original 1776 founding fathers. “Beware of foreign entanglements” was still the nation’s credo. It was only after the war that the huge military machine that was built to defeat Hitler refused to die, and eventually bent the nation upon itself. If we had only listened to Eisenhower, “Beware the military industrial complex”.
Your Nazi propaganda is 70 years out of date. America is going a different way, but it won’t be that way. The Nazi were an evil destructive force, and the world will never forget it!
Boat on Thu, 9th Jun 2016 1:51 pm
Stuifzand,
You and greggit have one thing in common, your penchant for high drama and conspiracy. A few rich jews/international banking cartel controlling the world. Lol
The annexation of Austria was the beginning of WWII. Like with Russian annexation of Crimea. You would have thought Putin would know what would happen. The free world is not pleased. Will a woman named Hillary be his downfall?
penury on Thu, 9th Jun 2016 2:08 pm
Boat I doubt that you can say that “annexation occurred” following a vote of the people showed that this was the overwhelming choice of the citizens. Something U.S, people have forgotten can happen.
Apneaman on Thu, 9th Jun 2016 2:21 pm
Cock licker from Missouri, no one is buying it. I have exposed your inner sickness and ugliness far too many times on this site. Biggest phony ever and easy as fuck to make you show it. Don’t you think you should stop pretending you ride the high road? It’s kind of foolish of you to keep pretending when you have show otherwise with and without my help hundreds of times. Do you really think we have forgotten some of your classics – like challenging another commenter to a knife fights? LMAO Maybe it was that sick Catholic upbringing? Them priests don’t need to grope and fuck all the kids to scar them for life. No no no the never ending guilt trip is enough to do that.
Apneaman on Thu, 9th Jun 2016 2:30 pm
Economic Undertow – All The Answers Are Wrong
” Brilliant as the company was, Farben’s crimes were appalling. Farben and its manufacturing counterparts Vereinigte Stahlwerke, Daimler, Krupp, BMW, Messerschmidt, Rheinmetall, M.A.N., Mauser and the rest were the ‘Military Industrial Complex’ before the term as such existed. The complex’s war against Europe cost the lives of thirty-two millions or more, additional millions were wounded or left homeless. Instead of empire, the war left Germany divided and in ruins. The conventional narrative suggests Farben as an accomplice or pro-forma enabler of the Nazi Reich and its horrors but this is incorrect. Hitler and his gangster cronies were products of Farben no different from polystyrene and printing ink.”
“In 1914, Haber without hesitation volunteered his expertise to the Kaiser government, to develop and deploy poison gas during the war, having a personal hand in the first use of chlorine during the Second Battle of Ypres in 1915. “During peacetime a scientist belongs to the world,” said Haber, “during wartime he belongs to his country.”
http://www.economic-undertow.com/2016/06/08/all-the-answers/
shortonoil on Thu, 9th Jun 2016 2:44 pm
“The only ones who really wanted war in Europe were the Americans (not the American public who just like the British in great majority were pro-Hitler, but the US kosher run deep state) and the Soviets, because they both anticipated the end result: dividing the European loot between the two new parvenus if the Germans, British and French could be sicked against each other “
It looks like you have gotten the Americans confused with a pack called the Rothschild. There where a few Brown Shirts marching in the US in 1939, after the declaration of war they disappeared like mist in the wind. The majority of Americans were never pro Hitler; your imagination is running away with you. The Americans at that point were still very much followers of the ideals of the original 1776 founding fathers. “Beware of foreign entanglements” was still the nation’s credo. It was only after the war that the huge military machine that was built to defeat Hitler refused to die, and eventually bent the nation upon itself. If we had only listened to Eisenhower, “Beware the military industrial complex”.
Your Nazi propaganda is 70 years out of date. America is going a different way, but it won’t be that way. The Nazi were an evil destructive force, and the world will never forget it.
shortonoil on Thu, 9th Jun 2016 2:59 pm
“Brilliant as the company was, Farben’s crimes were appalling. “
A.J. Farben was one of the most evil organizations that has ever arisen in the Western World, and they are still with us. The pharmaceutical industry of today is just a spin off of the Farben dynasty. After World War II Farben was broken into three companies, Bayer (as in Bayer Aspirin) was the largest. Once one realizes where the modern pharmaceutical industry arose from its not hard to understand its incredible, and destructive corruption of the medical industry.
GregT on Thu, 9th Jun 2016 3:15 pm
The Empire of I.G. Farben
“Farben was Hitler and Hitler was Farben. (Senator Homer T. Bone to Senate Committee on Military Affairs, June 4, 1943.)”
“The Farben cartel dated from 1925, when organizing genius Hermann Schmitz (with Wall Street financial assistance) created the super-giant chemical enterprise out of six already giant German chemical companies — Badische Anilin, Bayer, Agfa, Hoechst, Weiler-ter-Meer, and Griesheim-Elektron. These companies were merged to become Inter-nationale Gesellschaft Farbenindustrie A.G. — or I.G. Farben for short. Twenty years later the same Hermann Schmitz was put on trial at Nuremburg for war crimes committed by the I. G. cartel. Other I. G. Farben directors were placed on trial but the American affiliates of I. G. Farben and the American directors of I. G. itself were quietly forgotten; the truth was buried in the archives.”
“It is these U.S. connections in Wall Street that concern us. Without the capital supplied by Wall Street, there would have been no I. G. Farben in the first place and almost certainly no Adolf Hitler and World War II.”
“German bankers on the Farben Aufsichsrat (the supervisory Board of Directors)1 in the late 1920s included the Hamburg banker Max War-burg, whose brother Paul Warburg was a founder of the Federal Reserve System in the United States. Not coincidentally, Paul Warburg was also on the board of American I. G., Farben’s wholly owned U.S. subsidiary. In addition to Max Warburg and Hermann Schmitz, the guiding hand in the creation of the Farben empire, the early Farben Vorstand included Carl Bosch, Fritz ter Meer, Kurt Oppenheim and George von Schnitzler.2 All except Max Warburg were charged as “war criminals” after World War II.”
“In 1928 the American holdings of I. G. Farben (i.e., the Bayer Company, General Aniline Works, Agfa Ansco, and Winthrop Chemical Company) were organized into a Swiss holding company, i. G. Chemic (Inter-nationale Gesellschaft fur Chemisehe Unternehmungen A. G.), controlled by I. G. Farben in Germany. In the following year these American firms merged to become American I. G. Chemical Corporation, later renamed General Aniline & Film. Hermann Schmitz, the organizer of I. G. Farben in 1925, became a prominent early Nazi and supporter of Hitler, as well as chairman of the Swiss I. G. Chemic and president of American I. G. The Farben complex both in Germany and the United States then developed into an integral part of the formation and operation of the Nazi state machine, the Wehrmacht and the S.S.”
http://reformed-theology.org/html/books/wall_street/chapter_02.htm
There would be your “few rich jews/international banking cartel” once again Boat.
“Warburg was born in Hamburg, Germany, to the Warburg family, a Jewish banking dynasty with origins in Venice.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Warburg
shortonoil on Thu, 9th Jun 2016 3:18 pm
When I was a sophomore in high school my history teacher (when American teachers were still allowed to teach, rather than prep for federally prepared SOLs) bet me I couldn’t read this book. If you want to learn where the world has come from, and maybe understand where it is going it is a good place to start.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Rise_and_Fall_of_the_Third_Reich
Don Stewart on Thu, 9th Jun 2016 4:01 pm
Shortonoil and others
At the age of 75, I can still somewhat remember the end of WWII and remember better the comments of adults in the aftermath and with the beginning of the Cold War.
When I was very young, it was common to hear adults comment that ‘we fought the wrong enemy’ in WWII. My family had no German roots at all, but there was a deep strain of anti-Britain and anti-Banker and anti-Jewish (except for the local Jewish merchant, who was an OK guy).
Decades later, I was in a ski lodge in the US which had a Norwegian lineage. They had a library, and I was looking casually at a children’s book, with a picture out of Heidi on the front cover and illustrations of rosy cheeked, flaxen haired children. The book had been written in the mid-1930s by a Norwegian admirer of Hitler. By the author’s lights, Hitler had saved Germany from Organized Labor. Ronald Reagan would sound very similar in the 1980s, and Zero Hedge sounds many similar themes today.
I guess my point is that there is a certain way of viewing the world that preceded Hitler and is certainly still alive and well. While I am not a student of Donald Trump, it seems to me that it would be hard to place him very definitely in that particular world view.
Amazon just offered me a free ebook written by Laura Esquivel. I looked up the description, and it seems to be a rather bitter portrait of Mexico by a Mexican. If Donald Trump said the same things, what would be the reaction?
If one were to look at the political views expressed in the Norwegian children’s book, would they come closest to the political views of Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton? What differences would one find, and what similarities?
Don Stewart
salinsky on Thu, 9th Jun 2016 5:05 pm
Stuifzand For god’s sake man don’t you know that hardly anyone wants to hear about reality, it causes major electrical brain storm shorts when it mixes with the ongoing movies running in their
Microcephalic heads.
shortonoil on Thu, 9th Jun 2016 5:12 pm
Dear Don,
My mother’s side came from Italy, and they hated Hitler, and Mussolini. As a child all I heard was how great America was for smashing the evil Nazi, and fascist empire. They were disgusted that the US was spending $billions to rebuild Germany. Many of them had enlisted at the start of the war, and they personally saw much of the horror that the Germans had spread across Europe. My father fought in the South Pacific, and saw what the Japanese had done to the Chinese, and Filipinos. Tears would come to his eyes when he talked about it – which was rarely.
I fought in Vietnam and saw the complete, and utter brutality of the VC up close, and personal. It is the same story over, and over again, savagery begets savagery. It lingers for generations. We must forget the hate, and horror – or we are doomed!
shortonoil on Thu, 9th Jun 2016 5:27 pm
Thank you for all your comments both here, and on the site. Your comments are always insightful and revealing.
BW Hill
jjhman on Thu, 9th Jun 2016 5:52 pm
Some years ago a good friend of mine offered that the big battle is not between the good guys and the bad guys but the battle that every human experiences between the good guy and the monster within. I think that is very profound, partly because it give lie to any notion that “the Jews” or the “nazis” were, or are, the real bad guys. We all have the capacity to be either. Who can doubt there would be a shortage of Americans, Canadians or Cubans to man the gas chambers if the right leader were to appear at the right time?
Don Stewart on Thu, 9th Jun 2016 7:55 pm
BW Hill
I went to college in Texas in the late 1950s. Legal racial segregation has been eliminated, but integration had not happened. Our college, which was in western Texas, recruited a black football player who had grown up in a town with very few other blacks, and who had never attended a segregated school. The Board, almost all of them from eastern Texas, voted their stock and the offer of a scholarship had to be revoked.
My generation thought that this was all simply stupid. Once ‘we’ got in charge of things, it would all be forgotten. In many respects, it has not been forgotten. The only defense I have for my generation is that we never really got to be in charge of anything. The baby boomers came along behind us and simply took control. That’s my story and I’m sticking to it!
I have recently read Dacher Keltner’s book The Paradox of Power. The paradox is that the behavior which gets us into a position of power (ability to influence others) by showing that we can behave in the common good, can quickly turn into a perversion of power as we manipulate others for our selfish benefit. The hormonal reward circuits are quite similar.
The small group (the proverbial 150 people) have ways of keeping the powerful humble, but when a leader takes command of a huge group, the feedback mechanisms tend not to work very well. The mistake we make is to think that generous behavior or its opposite, selfish behavior, is somehow innate to the person….coming from selfish genes or childhood trauma or the Devil or Jesus or the ethnic group or nationality. In the movie about the Boston priest and child abuse, the expert they consulted said that priests are just ordinary…about 5 percent of them will sexually abuse a child. Some devout Catholics I discussed this with simply refused to believe it. It HAD TO BE a few bad apples.
Consequently, we waste a lot of time in futilely trying to find people with high ethical standards….when the real payoff comes from creating a framework where generous behavior is rewarded and selfish behavior is punished.
You have been amazingly generous with your Etp model, by the way.
Don Stewart
shortonoil on Fri, 10th Jun 2016 9:02 am
“You have been amazingly generous with your Etp model, by the way.”
We had to be – more than half of our readership was educated with the New Math!
It is news that nobody wants to hear; it is also news that a lot of people don’t want anyone else to hear. That makes getting the message across pretty difficult at times. It is a tool that makes what is otherwise a very complex issue very simple. It is that simplicity that makes it a threat to those who have been deemed, or have deemed themselves as “experts”. For a society that has been conditioned into believing that they are incapable of understanding complex issues, and must leave them to handled by a select priesthood of specialists, it is usually an easy sell. We see this technique to deter competition used from the medical field to the repair of a refrigerator. It is not surprising to see it being used for something as huge, and complex as oil. When comments appear from the self deemed “experts”, such as, it can’t be right because it is “bad thermodynamics” it is pretty apparent as to what precludes their final objective. For the oil industry it is “it is too complex for you to understand, so you must believe us”. For Yergin it is, “I am an insider who hobnobs with all the big guys, so what I say must be true”.
In the meantime, the petroleum industry continues to shut down. After that we will be redefining generosity.
BW Hill
Dustin Hoffman on Fri, 10th Jun 2016 10:10 am
Thank you both, BW Hill group and you too, Don Stewart, for being thoughtful, as well as, generous.
Don has been a prolific contributor at Our Finite World blog of Gail Tverberg and has on occasions discussed your Etp model there.
I owe both a great measure of gratitude.
ellsworth on Fri, 10th Jun 2016 1:12 pm
I too see Don posting very interesting things on OFW, helping bridge the thermodynamic models with Gail’s financial perspective… but Gail gets instantly triggered when she hears “EROEI” or “Hill”, so Don has to deal with that… lol.
Boat on Fri, 10th Jun 2016 1:44 pm
Don Stewart,
“Consequently, we waste a lot of time in futilely trying to find people with high ethical standards….when the real payoff comes from creating a framework where generous behavior is rewarded and selfish behavior is punished”.
Humans have never been good at developing that type of framework. Fear of consequences and fear of punishment is the primary motivator. As you move up the financial scale money can remove some of that fear much to dismay of those who have less.
GregT on Fri, 10th Jun 2016 2:49 pm
“As you move up the financial scale money can remove some of that fear much to dismay of those who have less.”
Just be thankful that you live in a socialist country Boat. If not for socialism, 1 out of every 6 of your community members would be breaking down doors and burning houses to the ground,
while people such as yourself were attempting to get a comfortable night’s sleep with a full stomach.
PracticalMaina on Fri, 10th Jun 2016 2:59 pm
Gotta have that bottom tier, make people feel superior for the tax money they generate with their useless consumption based jobs. The lowest tier gets harassed while trying to use their EBT card at the wali world. Fat lazy pricks complaining about someone on welfare while shopping at a store that has acted as a conduit for manufacturing to go to China and small retail to be run out of town. But, of course blame the poor prick, not the Waltons.
Dustin Hoffman on Fri, 10th Jun 2016 3:04 pm
Seems Don Stewart has moved on from OFW.
A joker poster commentator by the name of “Fast Eddy” has become a toxic, obnoxious, overbearing annoyance.
Seems Gail tolerates him as a supporter and has become a teacher’s pet.
I also am avoiding it now…getting repetitious.
ellsworth on Fri, 10th Jun 2016 4:25 pm
I would have to agree with you Dustin Hoffman, usually when there’s a different viewpoint on there, you immediately get talk of boiled rats, spent fuel ponds, starving hordes and the Solar Jesus!
shortonoil on Fri, 10th Jun 2016 6:38 pm
“the Solar Jesus “
I think you have coined a new phrase in modern, end of the oil age parlance.
shortonoil on Fri, 10th Jun 2016 6:46 pm
As I understand it at a conference she even told Charles Hall that his work was wrong (incomplete, not worth much … etc). It is no surprise that her site winds up with boiled rat, and “the Solar Jesus “.
Dustin Hoffman on Fri, 10th Jun 2016 7:56 pm
Ellsworth, you are so dead on…not to mention Koombaya and other Joan Baez digs with savage insults on organic farming because he is a total failure at it.
Shortonoil, we definitely do want that character to pollute the comment section here.
I hope Don Stewart continue to contribute, most intelligent mind.
Along with some others here.
shortonoil on Sat, 11th Jun 2016 12:14 pm
” Ellsworth, you are so dead on…not to mention Koombaya and other Joan Baez digs with savage insults on organic farming because he is a total failure at it. “
Regardless of her ethnocentrism the real question is whether or not she is contributing to our understanding of petroleum depletion; which we feel is likely to be the most important question facing modern civilization today. Are her presentations a form of enlightenment, or obfuscation?
ellsworth on Sat, 11th Jun 2016 2:24 pm
I think Gail’s perspective is a valuable piece of this story, not a ToE, but I wouldn’t call it an obfuscation. I personally can never really grasp her viewpoint intuitively though. (to me it’s like she has the cart in front of the horse in terms of debt and wages being the key problem.)
shortonoil, I should clarify that it’s not Gail that perpetually warns us of rodent cuisine and death by roving cannibals, it’s some of the ‘eccentric’ commentators on her site.
GregT on Sat, 11th Jun 2016 2:38 pm
Nothing wrong with rodents, if they’re prepared correctly. 🙂
Don Stewart on Sat, 11th Jun 2016 2:45 pm
Ellsworth and shortonoil
I will give a brief summary of my assessment of Gail. I believe her strength is in the actuarial skills. I do not believe she can construct mathematical models which, when manipulated, have the capacity to reveal unexpected results. The Etp model, or the Limits to Growth model, since they are mathematical, can be so manipulated and can open unexpected vistas. (That statement DOES NOT mean that either model is a reliable guide to the future, nor that either model is not a reliable guide to the future. It is simply a statement about mathematical models in general.)
Gail has a very strong need to say “I am right, and I got here first’. To say that her analysis of lagging wages owes something to Marx brings forth a hot denial. To say that the Etp model is something more than a simple calculation of EROEI brings forth incomprehension.
When Ugo Bardi and Charles Hall recently got into a disagreement over ‘extended EROEI’ on Ugo’s site, I do not think that Gail really understood what was at stake.
In short, I think she does pretty good work so long as she sticks with her strengths, but she would be a lot more productive if she could also leverage the work of others. Her combative attitude is not an asset for her.
Don Stewart