Yergin: If China loses control, look out oil

40 Comments on "Yergin: If China loses control, look out oil"

Plantagenet on Wed, 8th Jul 2015 4:40 pm 



1. China has ordered people to stop selling stocks. Apparently the communist party of China now think that only Capitalist roaders sell their stocks to lock in profits.

2. Iran doesn’t have “super-skilled negotiators”—the Obama administration are super caver-inners.

3. Greece doesn’t have “unskilled” negotiators. The Greek’s elected a hard-left government whose intent all along has been to take Greece out of the Euro and to institute a “Cuba-style” little red-fascist state there on the shore of the Agean Sea.

Cheers!

Sugar Seam on Wed, 8th Jul 2015 5:15 pm 



red-fascist… what an oxymoron, and a bastardization of language… shut up, Plant…

BobInget on Wed, 8th Jul 2015 5:23 pm 



Plant. Please, get serious. You are ruining your mind.
As you must know the Chinese market is still open and remains 30% up for the year.
Most new Chinese investors never knew about short selling, valuations. Maybe, they do now.

Oh, as I keep mentioning, no one else seems to;
INDIA has moved into oil importers forth place.

What countries are the top net importers of oil?
The top 10 largest net oil importers..
http://www.indexmundi.com/g/r.aspx?v=93&t=10

Will China’s economy slow as a result of a market correction? Sure. Will it suddenly collapse? Nope.

Is oil selling for less today then last year?
Is the S&P lower now then in April 2015?
Plant, you plum forgot about our oil glut.

The other two statements just make no sense.

Plantagenet on Wed, 8th Jul 2015 5:25 pm 



You’ve never heard the term “red-fascist” sugar?

It is used to refer to Stalinists and their ild who set up regimes that are essentially indistinguishable from National Socialists.

For example—the North Korean regime. While I’m sure you approve of their use of slave labor and toruture and murder because they claim to socialists, in actuality by any objective measure they are red-fascists.

Cheers!

Plantagenet on Wed, 8th Jul 2015 5:28 pm 



Bob. Plese, get serious. You are ruining your mind.

The Chinese stock market may indeed still be open, but that doesn’t change the fact that as I indicated above the Chinese government has ordered large stock holders not to sell for six months.

Please educate yourself on the facts before you post.

CHEERS!

MSN Fanboy on Wed, 8th Jul 2015 5:34 pm 



Yes Plant, we better be wearey of those Fascists Communists,

Better yet, be scared of those Christian Muslims,

Or those Bee Spiders LOL

Gosh Plant: Your such a Stupid Clever person ROLF……

CHEERS! SADNESS!

Love You!

Plantagenet on Wed, 8th Jul 2015 5:38 pm 



@fanboy

I’ll mark you down as another fan of the wonderful socialist regime in North Korea.

Cheers!

Plantagenet on Wed, 8th Jul 2015 5:42 pm 



OK kids. Its regrettable that you are ignorant about so many things, but I’m certainly willing to try to bring you up to speed.

Kids—the latest lesson is on RED FASCISM.

Please do the following reading assignment, and be prepared to discuss the meaning of RED FASCISM after you have educated yourself.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_fascism

CHEERS!

BobInget on Wed, 8th Jul 2015 5:50 pm 



China has a Communist government. I think it’s safe to say this is their first major internal market correction. All things considered, you gotta hand it to them Capitalist/Reds.

Nony on Wed, 8th Jul 2015 5:57 pm 



How about discussing the head post content instead of fighting with Plant? I haven’t even heard the de rigueur anti-Yergin hissing.

apneaman on Wed, 8th Jul 2015 6:16 pm 



Plant, so called RED FASCISM is an obscure term agreed upon by a few revisionist historians. Oh aren’t you so clever and wicked smart. Did you go to HaaaaVard?

Best Scene in Good Will Hunting – Harvard Bar

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QnZ0Y4rvz6E

BobInget on Wed, 8th Jul 2015 6:41 pm 



Plant has a point.
Just as religious fundamentalists world-wide share many of the same beliefs and myths but hate each other nevertheless, political movements in the extreme tend to find commonalities like it or not.
Think of politics as a circle. Go far enough left or right and meet yourself coming and going.

Hitler and Stalin were prime examples. More
cult of personality figures then good Fascists or Communists both used their movements much like ISIS is using Islam to terrorize, gain and hold power.

In cases like al Qaeda or IS or Hamas or Hizbollah or Boko Haram, movements gain
followers by using an existing set of religious rules, real or made up. Christian & Jewish Fundamentalists represent competition and must be eliminated even though many of their rules are also Islamic.

In the US Congress today there’s not a single committed Nazi or Communist . Nevertheless
because most Americans think of the two words as one kinda curse to be used on anyone judged too far from the center.

Fascism is enjoying comeback today because of wars, climate changes mass migration into Western Europe.

apneaman on Wed, 8th Jul 2015 6:50 pm 



Inverted totalitarianism

“Inverted totalitarianism is a term coined by political philosopher Sheldon Wolin in 2003 to describe the emerging form of government of the United States. Wolin believes that the United States is increasingly turning into an illiberal democracy, and uses the term “inverted totalitarianism” to illustrate similarities and differences between the United States governmental system and totalitarian regimes such as Nazi Germany and the Stalinist Soviet Union.[1][2][3][4] In Days of Destruction, Days of Revolt by Chris Hedges and Joe Sacco, inverted totalitarianism is described as a system where corporations have corrupted and subverted democracy and where economics trumps politics.[5] In inverted totalitarianism, every natural resource and every living being is commodified and exploited to collapse as the citizenry is lulled and manipulated into surrendering their liberties and their participation in government through excess consumerism and sensationalism.”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverted_totalitarianism

Sounds about right to me.

apneaman on Wed, 8th Jul 2015 7:32 pm 



“America floats between modernity & collapse”: What Japan can teach the U.S. about averting disaster
Historian Morris Berman tells Salon about the striking social and historical contrast between the two world powers

“Morris Berman, American historian, cultural theorist, and sociologist, is a starry eyed realist whose grim forecast of American demise makes him alone even in leftist circles. In the brilliant trilogy of books on American decline — “Twilight of American Culture,” “Dark Ages of America,” and “Why America Failed” — he surveys the political dysfunction, economic disrepair and cultural decay of modern America. Unlike most social critics, he does not end his analysis with a perfunctory prescription for revolution. Such optimistic talk, Berman makes clear, is the delusional noise of sounding brass and tinkling cymbals.”

http://www.salon.com/2015/06/21/america_floats_between_modernity_collapse_what_the_united_states_can_learn_from_japan/

GregT on Wed, 8th Jul 2015 8:05 pm 



“Fascism should more appropriately be called Corporatism because it is a merger of state and corporate power”

Benito Mussolini

Hmmm. Sound familiar?

Makati1 on Wed, 8th Jul 2015 8:37 pm 



The US is well covered by Apneaman and GregT.

China is a wild card in too many ways to make anything predictable there. It has 1.4 billion people, $4 Trillion in reserves,at least as much gold as any other nation, and a military that can keep all other nations at bay. It is not dependent on elections or other pseudo-democratic ideas. And, it has partnered with vast resources and a modern military that can only strengthen it in the future.

steve on Wed, 8th Jul 2015 9:17 pm 



4 trillion in reserves!!! Good one Makati…I just spit up my beer!!! that is a good one…all the countries on this planet are broke my friend…

Davy on Wed, 8th Jul 2015 9:28 pm 



I love this on one level. The ultimate of the oil corn insider Yergin acknowledging demand destruction from the holy of holiest of the corns the sacred China doll. Mak, Bob, and so many other Asia crowing corn porners are dead wrong on that black horse. Peak everything my friends is China.

That Peak China is the peak of the worst of man. I used to think the US was the worst of peak entropic decay then came China. China took exploitation and “man-made” destructions to new levels by greed and deceit. Deceit on their wonderful people and destruction of a wonderful environment by their cabal of red fascist (nice term Planter). The place is a cesspool now with nothing to show soon but shuttered toy making factories and ghost cities.

OK, I let it out and that felt good. Of course there is more to it and the rest of the world was part of gang rape. My point is I have been saying for a long time here on PO it is all about China. This Chinese (excess) growth is not real it is nothing more than bad debt. Maybe ½ of the official growth rate over 20 years was real productive growth. The rest was landfill material.

The basis of globalism recently has been the export Asia and the import west. This was not to last. There are limits of consumption and limits to growth of producers. Debt falls in between somewhere. Excessive debt is just distortions of consumption and production. The amount of stuff didn’t change but the health of a system of making stuff did including the planet. We took good stuff out of the earth and turned it into landfill material in the US and ghost cities in China. That is a crude generalization but again the point is this cannot last on either side of the equation in a world of limits of growth with marginalization of complexity and technology.

The corns are shitting their friggin pants now because every corn knows without China their dream of growth, progress, and prosperity is finished. Doom and gloom are the only option. We are not their yet folks but we are teetering towards a bumpy descent now that China is losing control. We are not their yet because the entire global system is rigged and repressed. There are no free markets. The powers to be have the dog tied up. The dog can bark but it can’t do all that much currently but the dog is gnawing at its rope wanting to be free. When that dog gets free watch out. When markets and human nature burst out of a repressed system of lies we will be swept away in the chaos of broken promises and failed global networks.

Anything built upon sand near the ocean is doomed. Ponzi-schemes and card houses are ephemeral. The cornucopians were fed a crock of shit and told it was straddle. That’s Wall Street in a nut shell shit instead of straddle. This is the end game but it will likely not end overnight. There is still plenty of good shit to turn into bad and more people to shove off the bus. Churchill said it so well with his end of the beginning speech.

We are on our way to collapse it just going to take some more time. It will probably take more time than most of us doomers can take. Crowing doom is tough. How many hard core doomers here eventually go back to roast. We doomers will be the champions eventually. That is a sad statement but it can be a positive one if we take it to mean it is time to prepare for the rebalance. It is time to embrace adjustment and mitigation for a fall of a people. A paradigm shift of rebalance of consumption, population, and a destroyed planet. We can make this worse or make the worse less worse but we can’t make it better. We shot that wad on an orgy of growth.

BC on Wed, 8th Jul 2015 10:25 pm 



Precisely, Davy.

China’s economy is growing no faster than 1-2% real per capita. If they accounted for depreciation and inventories the way the West and Japan do, their real growth per capita is about what it is for the US, EZ, and Japan: less than 1% to near 0%.

In fact, China’s labor force has contracted for three years running, and real productivity is no faster than 1%, which by definition puts China’s potential real GDP per capita at effectively 0%.

So far, wages and consumer spending are growing at ~10% YoY for 35% share of GDP, but the net of exports, production, and gov’t spending is a wash.

Adjust 3.5% nominal net for core price changes of 1.6% (the deflator is a fiction) and population growth of ~0.5%, and real growth per capita is in 1-2% range tops.

The CCP officials overtly tried to create a stock market bubble to replace the bursting unreal estate bubble and bank capital and to create a dubious “wealth effect” to encourage increasing consumer spending to GDP, and now the ridiculous bubble is bursting with deflating confidence and CCP officials’ credibility.

China’s demographics are now rolling over and dragging on the economy just as occurred since 1998 for Japan and in the US since 2000-08.

Now the CCP elites and their technocratic surrogates in Beijing and the state media are blaming foreigners and “western devils” for the stock market crash and slowing economy.

This pattern has been repeated at least three times in China since the late 18th century, including White Lotus Rebellion, Opium Wars, Boxer Rebellion, and Mao’s civil war and revolution. History is rhyming again, implying that China’s elites face an economic and financial markets crash, social instability, deterioration and collapse of trade and diplomatic relations with the US/West, and turning inward to deal with domestic crises.

BC on Wed, 8th Jul 2015 10:27 pm 



The US is a militarist-imperialist, fascist, rentier-socialist corporate-state. I mean that descriptively, not disparagingly per se.

Makati1 on Wed, 8th Jul 2015 11:25 pm 



steve, no, they are not. REAL, physical, assets are still available in many countries. Also, China has ~USD 4 Trillion to spend on them BEFORE they evaporate totally.

China owns real, physical, resources all over the world, that it has been buying with those USDs and it has the means to protect those resources from predators like the US, about 6+ million of them, that they are quietly staging all over the world along with the weapons necessary.

At home, China also has a modern railway system, new empty cities to populate if needed, and most of the West that is still dependent on China exports to survive. I think China knows exactly what it is doing.

It seems that most Westerners believe their own propaganda about the rest of the world. Too bad. Ignorance is bliss. Come out from under the BS MSM and see the real world sometime.

Plantagenet on Wed, 8th Jul 2015 11:35 pm 



@Bobinget

Thank you for honestly acknowledging that I have a valid point in characterizing Stalinist regimes as “red fascist” regimes. You are one of the better and more thoughtful posters here.

CHEERS!

Makati1 on Wed, 8th Jul 2015 11:36 pm 



Also Steve, think on this one while you clean up that beer…

When the current banking system collapses and ALL of those ‘debts’, including your bank account, evaporate with it, what is left in each country that is NOT financial?

Answer: farmland, mines, wells, infrastructure, cities, factories, forests, military, education and people(manpower). Those do NOT disappear when the financial system evaporates.

Who has the most of those today? Russia and China. Why do you think it is so important for the Empire to control those countries if it wants to survive? It is certainly not the ruble or the yuan. It is the REAL wealth of those nations.

Jimmy on Thu, 9th Jul 2015 12:02 am 



Hey Nony, nobody gives a fuck what you have to say, including Art Berman,so stop posting your fucking stupid ideas on other people’s blogs. Start your own blog since you figure your thoughts are so fucking important. Dumbass.

Davy on Thu, 9th Jul 2015 2:11 am 



Poor Mak, it is a struggle to put perfume on stink. You can try as ya may but your horse is losing the race in a big way. The Asian dominos will fall along with their mother China especially within your Philippines. The Philippines is one of the most economically integrated with China of the so called Asian tiger cubs. The Philippines is nothing more than an economic colony of China. When China catches cold the Philippines sneezes. Kleenex Mak, or do they have a different name for it there. Same function for it though that being runny noses and tears of grief.

Makati1 on Thu, 9th Jul 2015 2:29 am 



My, my Jimmy. Does your mother know you use such language…lol.

Davy on Thu, 9th Jul 2015 2:53 am 



Hey, Mak, you been following the Chinese news?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-08/china-crash-protection-costs-hit-record-highs

ZH is having a field day. Don’t you hate when agenda blows up in your face.

Ian Cooper on Thu, 9th Jul 2015 6:08 am 



“red-fascist state”

They’re called “Commie-Nazis” Planty.

Davy on Thu, 9th Jul 2015 6:38 am 



I have been a little playful with this whole late breaking China doll market story. Most of you are aware that I love to irritate the Anti-Americans who are unabashed Asiaphiles. The reality of current events is saying the entire global system being integrated is following much the same policy of intervention and repression.

In this context I am chewing on current events. I am a convinced doomer but I am not convinced on the when or how. I am coming to the realization that at least on the financial side of the equation the powers to be globally are not going to allow any market to get too distorted. The US is far too tied into China and vice versa. The contagions are real and palpable.

I am no longer sure if it will be the financial system by itself that will tip the apple cart. It is going to have to be other events whether peak oil related or geopolitical events in combination that will bring the flight down. If we see this Chinese market crisis heal up and rise again then we know for sure we are at Disney Land where the rides are controlled and no longer the free-ish markets many of us grew up with.

Zero Hedge:
DB’s Jim Reid completes the overnight event summary “If anyone was under any illusions that we’re living in free global markets then China’s recent policy actions should be a reminder that we’re not and haven’t really been for several years. Global financial markets are not really operating under capitalism but then again I’m not really sure I know what you’d call the system we are currently living under.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-09/china-soars-most-2009-after-government-threatens-sellers-arrest-global-stocks-surge
Here is a brief sample of some of the measures the Chinese government and the PBOC have unleashed in just the past ten days to prop up the crashing market include:
• a ban on major shareholders, corporate executives, directors from selling stock for 6 months
• freezing more than half (1400 at last count per Bloomberg) of the listed companies from trading,
• blocking fund redemptions, forcing companies to invest in the market,
• halting IPOs,
• reducing equity transaction fees,
• providing daily bailouts to the margin lending authority,
• reducing margin requirements,
• boosting buybacks
• endless propaganda by Beijing Bob.
The best and briefest summary comes from China Southern Fund Management chief strategist Yang Delong, who said that the government efforts “hit the right spot.” Well, yes, when you threaten to arrest sellers, it does tend to have a short-term effect. The only escalation from there is arresting anyone who doesn’t buy which in turn would promptly lead to this.

steve on Thu, 9th Jul 2015 8:39 am 



I guess the point I was trying to make is that we are all on a sinking boat. It does not matter what boat sinks first…to say that China has 4 trillion in assets is as absurd as saying the Muricans have 6 trillion. It is all fiat not worth anything when this house of cards fails which from the look of things looks like real soon. The states have manipulated the markets as much or more than China but what country has not?!!? The real question is how long can this go on without the wheels falling off….I used to think that eventually the masses will find out but now I know they now they just don’t care…

BobInget on Thu, 9th Jul 2015 10:21 am 



Below is what a pie in the sky looks like;

he Middle East region’s crude oil production is forecast to grow by 14.7% from an average of 27.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2014 to 31.5 million b/d by 2024, Byblos Bank ‘Country Risk Weekly Bulletin’ reported.

Middle Eastern producers, including Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Iraq, are targeting an increase in their oil supply and upstream expansion plans, supported by low production costs. In parallel, the region’s oil consumption is projected at 10 million b/d in 2024, reflecting a rise of 26.2% from 7.9 million b/d in 2014. Demand for oil would be supported by sustained fuel subsidies and rising refining capacity.

Also, strong oil consumption is forecast to limit the growth in oil exports from the Middle East during the 2014-24 period. (30)
Source: Iloubnan

Consumption has already gotten out of hand…

Rodster on Thu, 9th Jul 2015 11:24 am 



“the equation the powers to be globally are not going to allow any market to get too distorted. The US is far too tied into China and vice versa. The contagions are real and palpable.”

And that’s where everyone misses the point so I too agree. Many fail to realize that the BRICS and AIIB is just another store front of the IMF/WB/ECB/BIS globalized banking cabal. China and Russia are in on the action. They have too much to lose not to be a part of the gang that are taking us to the Wile E Coyote moment in history. We are being systematically setup for a Global Govt and Money System/Currency. Yay to the “Hunger Games”.

—————————————–
BRICS bank to complement Washington-based development institutions – Presidential aide
http://rt.com/business/261241-brics-bank-institutions-complement/?utm_source=browser&utm_medium=aplication_chrome&utm_campaign=chrome

Plantagenet on Thu, 9th Jul 2015 11:30 am 



@Ian Cooper

Why did you change your icon name from “beer belly” to Ian Cooper? Is Ian Cooper your real name? I always thought the name “beer belly” was a good fit for you?

As to your suggestion that we call Stalinist regimes “commie-fascist” regimes, you are certainly welcome to do so. However, the term you have chosen isn’t ideal, as it contains a pejorative (i.e. commie) in it.

Its really better to use neutral terms in these kinds of political discussions. The fact is that the term “Red Fascism” already exists, it has a long intellectual heritage going back to Hannah Arendt, and it does a good job of describing the nature of Stalinist socialist regimes.

CHEERS!

steve on Thu, 9th Jul 2015 12:46 pm 



I think his original name was beery or something like that not beer belly…lives in the pacific northwest and likes to ride bikes from what I can tell…

Plantagenet on Thu, 9th Jul 2015 2:23 pm 



Steve—that sounds right.

Still—the question remains as to why Alan Cooper changed his name from beery or beer belly or whatever it was and if Alan Cooper is actually his real name.

I thought beery lived in the Philly area. He used to boast constantly in these threads about riding his bike everywhere and never ever using any fossil fuel until I pointed out that when he flew on airplanes or took a bus or even heated his house he was using fossil fuel. He was amazed—he had never thought of that. Then when I pointed out that even his bicycle used fossil fuel to manufacture it, and more to ship it from the factory to the store, he was absolutely gobsmacked.

It had never occurred to him that fossil fuels were so fundamental in the economy.

CHEERS!

Plantagenet on Thu, 9th Jul 2015 2:40 pm 



Here’s a link to a discussion of Hannah Arendt’s book equating Stalinism and Fascism. This line of thought gave rise to the use of the term “Red Fascism” for Stalinistic Socialiism and “Black Fascism” for National Socialism.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Origins_of_Totalitarianism

Davy on Thu, 9th Jul 2015 5:07 pm 



For what it is worth here is a Wall Street view on “Oil Prices & Energy Stocks”
Submitted by Lance Roberts via STA Wealth Management,
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-09/3-things-correction-interest-rates-oil-prices

Besides interest rates, I also cover oil and energy prices on a regular basis in the weekly e-newsletter. Two week’s ago I stated the following: “There are very few signs that the drop in oil prices, and subsequent pain to energy-related investments is over. As shown in the chart below, there is still a significant divergence between energy-related investments and the underlying commodity price. These two will likely reconnect at some point in the future as oil prices drop towards the high 40’s potentially later this summer.

Secondly, energy related investments have experienced the first of most likely several ‘dead cat’ bounces that will plague energy investments into the near future. There is still WAY too much exuberance due to “recency bias” to make energy a viable investment opportunity longer term. More pain in the sector will be required to flush out speculators before longer term investments can be made. There will be a good opportunity in the future, it most likely isn’t now.”

The chart below shows the previous high correlation, as would be expected, between energy stocks and oil prices. The divergence in early 2014 is what prompted my call then to begin reducing exposure to energy stocks. While energy stocks are attempting to complete a 61.8% retracement and hold some level of support, the gap between oil prices and energy-related investments has yet to be filled.

There is still a significant amount of unwinding left in the energy space as production is still far outstripping demand. If the collapse in China continues, it is possible that oil prices could drop into the low $40’s putting additional pressure on energy company related earnings. Furthermore, exuberance is still high. Great buying opportunities come when the markets become convinced that oil prices and energy companies are “eternally dead.” We are not there just yet.

MD on Thu, 9th Jul 2015 5:38 pm 



Reading you people is poisoning my mind. All of you.

Jeez get over yourselves.

These comment threads are starting to look like facebook, and yes that’s an insult.

apneaman on Thu, 9th Jul 2015 7:02 pm 



Davy – For What It’s Worth

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gp5JCrSXkJY

Makati1 on Thu, 9th Jul 2015 8:53 pm 



MD, as I have not seen any intelligent comments under your Avatar, or any for that matter, you can avoid such ‘poison’ by just not reading the comments section.

The world does not spin according to your or anyone else’ idea of reality. It is filled with over 7 billion different opinions and observations. That is what makes it interesting. If you want ant colony conformity, go to Facebook or any other social cesspool and enjoy.