Peak Oil is You
Donate Bitcoins ;-) or Paypal :-)
Page added on May 12, 2015
World population-food supply balance is becoming increasingly unstable
Researchers report that as the world population increases and food demand has grown, globalization of trade has made the food supply more sensitive to environmental and market fluctuations. This leads to greater chances of food crises, particularly in nations where land and water resources are scarce and therefore food security strongly relies on imports.
The study assesses the food supply available to more than 140 nations (with populations greater than 1 million) and demonstrates that food security is becoming increasingly susceptible to perturbations in demographic growth, as humanity places increasing pressure on use of limited land and water resources.
“In the past few decades there has been an intensification of international food trade and an increase in the number of countries that depend on food imports,” said Paolo D’Odorico, a professor of environmental sciences at the University of Virginia and one of the study’s authors. “On average, about one-fourth of the food we eat is available to us through international trade. This globalization of food may contribute to the spread of the effects of local shocks in food production throughout the world.”
D’Odorico’s paper is published this week in the online early edition of the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
Food security, D’Odorico said, is typically defined as the availability of and access to a sufficient amount of food to meet the requirements of human societies at all places and all times.
“In order to have food security, food availability and accessibility need to be sustainable and resilient to perturbations associated with shocks in production and price spikes,” he said. “We’re finding that as the globalization of food increases, the coupled population/food system becomes more fragile and susceptible to conditions of crisis.”
D’Odorico, doctoral student Joel Carr of U.Va. and colleagues at the University of Padova in Italy and the Swiss Federal Polytechnic of Lausanne used computer modeling to reconstruct the global network of food trade between 1986 and 2011 in conjunction with a population growth model, factoring in the constraints of food availability through domestic production and trade, and examined the response of the system to perturbations.
They found that the coupled dynamics of population and access to food are becoming less resilient and increasingly prone to instability. Countries that strongly depend on trade for their food supply appear to be more susceptible to instability and episodic food crises than exporting countries. These findings are consistent with the food insecurity that has affected trade-dependent countries during recent food crises.
Previous studies by D’Odorico, who, in addition to his faculty position at U.Va., is a sabbatical fellow with the National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center at the University of Maryland, have suggested that the coupling of population and food dynamics might be becoming increasingly unbalanced and that, because of trade dependency, exposure to food insecurity is increasing. This finding provides further evidence that that indeed is happening, and already has happened and accelerated during the past two decades.
49 Comments on "World population-food supply balance is becoming increasingly unstable"
Lawfish1964 on Tue, 12th May 2015 7:23 am
“Countries that strongly depend on trade for their food supply appear to be more susceptible to instability and episodic food crises than exporting countries.” Thanks for that pearl of wisdom, Professor Obvious.
Davy on Tue, 12th May 2015 7:35 am
I want to cut down the article on one level and praise it on another. First the attack is in order. Why do we need a peer review scientific paper to expose what is common sense? We have definable overpopulation with broad based stresses to food resources. Fisheries are noticeably in decline. We have water stress of groundwater depletion, desertification, salinization, and pollution. We have soil loss and fertility destruction. We have energy issues that will affect food production and distribution at a systematic level. These problems can be discounted but they cannot be denied.
These facts should be widespread at all levels and the highest priority. It should be talk about every day on prime time MSM. The opposite is occurring. At all levels we are in denial of food insecurity. We are in denial overpopulation is a predicament and with it all other problems become predicaments.
Now the praise is in order. It is refreshing to see an article that is concise, objective, and straightforward. It is mild in its presentation so as to be readable by sheeples and policy makers alike. It hints at huge problems without causing the reflex actions of denial from the BAUtopians when faced with reality.
We are in overshoot plain and simple. The population is growing and all resources are in depletion. The rise in population along with declining value of resources from depletion is causing systematic issues of dysfunction and instability. IOW population is going up and the pie is shrinking how can that equation have a happy ending? No amount of BAUtopian hopium of technology, complexity and energy intensity is going to fix that equation. It is a predicament and a predicament of the highest concern for adaptation and mitigation. It will be a source of profound instabilities that will rock BAU to its very core.
BAU is predicated on stability of complexity and energy intensity with an environment of long term growth. We can have short term dips but there must be a rebound. What we have today is a disguised descent or bumpy descent. Food insecurity is disguised and well as liquid fuel issues. These issues will worsen and will destroy BAU just as global war could.
The big question is will food insecurity strike first or will it be war or liquid fuel shortages. This does not matter in the long term because sooner or later for whatever reason food insecurity, hunger, and famine will strike. The population must have a generational population rebalance, or a quick die off, or a combination of both. The net result of either is a rebalance of population to 1BIL or less within 50 years.
This article is the opening salvos of the war on BAUtopianism of hopium that all will be well. Technology will overcome and human exceptionalism will continue in a steady progress. Food is the basics of life we should not be in denial of food insecurity. This is the worst of denial because of the billions that will suffer.
paulo1 on Tue, 12th May 2015 7:48 am
News reports of migrant rescues in the Med is just a taste of what is to come in severe crisis. Good article.
Kenz300 on Tue, 12th May 2015 8:16 am
If you can not feed yourself, you can not feed a child. Endless population growth is not sustainable.
noobtube on Tue, 12th May 2015 8:48 am
The world population problem is an American population.
Too many Americans consuming too many resources to create too much waste.
Rodster on Tue, 12th May 2015 8:57 am
“If you can not feed yourself, you can not feed a child. Endless population growth is not sustainable”
And yet thanks to the TBTF Banksters, that’s exactly what’s required in order for the entire global BAU system NOT to implode.
We are at the point of global human civilization of, damn if you do, damned if you don’t.
JuanP on Tue, 12th May 2015 9:13 am
Every human being should learn how to grow food organically today. This morning I went to the garden at 5:30 and stayed there till 8. The Summer heat is almost here and it’s sunrise gardening season. Today I harvested a little dino kale, Swiss chard, green collards, Okinawa spinach, Red Malabar spinach, grape leaves, arugula, romaine, red lettuce, cherry tomatoes, tomato leaves, squash flowers, marigolds, a cayenne pepper, a key lime, a mango, assorted herbs, and the last strawberries of the season for my morning juice and lunch salad. Just a little bit of each.
I ripped myself an inguinal hernia kite surfing about two weeks ago and I will be having a surgery probably next week, I will find out exactly when on Thursday. I will be forced to take it easy for 5 weeks after that while I recover. Rest doesn’t come easy to me. 🙁
Lawfish1964 on Tue, 12th May 2015 9:24 am
I’m with you, JuanP. Although my garden is currently not producing anything harvestable. My tomatoes are right on the cusp, as are my peppers. Beans, cukes and field peas are just getting started in place of my snow peas which finally finished producing. This weekend, I will harvest two boxes of potatoes that I got in the ground in January. The rest of my potatoes will be ready to harvest in 60 days or so. They sure look healthy.
I have 3 nearly mature hens and 4 more little guys coming along. I’m expecting eggs any day now.
This weekend I’m building a fence to keep the pig out of the garden. Good times!
BobInget on Tue, 12th May 2015 9:26 am
One meme popularized by AGW deniers
goes: “CO/2 is good for agriculture”.
As it happens rising sea levels also means salt water intrusion.
http://www.encyclopedia.com/doc/1G2-3437800528.html
Along some coastlines, 500 acres a day is lost to farming.
The GOOD news:
There are ways to counter saltwater intrusion.
GMO salt resistant plants.
The BAD news:
Methods involve freshwater irrigation to flush salt. In drought situations, there may be no fresh water available.
BobInget on Tue, 12th May 2015 9:40 am
If lower oil prices, record CO/2 levels, did not help farmers produce more food in 2014, we are all in deep, organic shit.
Saudi Arabia and other water stressed oil producers are buying arable farmland around the world. That’s fine for them. Populations in places like Sudan are then deprived of food now being exported.
JuanP on Tue, 12th May 2015 9:54 am
Law, sounds great! Gardening in Miami is easier in winter than in summer, the next months I will have fewer choices for my crops and a lot more diseases and pests. I wish I could have some hens and a pig here, though I wouldn’t want to butcher that dwarf potbellied pig when the time comes, they are just too cute. Enjoy! 😉
JuanP on Tue, 12th May 2015 10:03 am
Bob, Salt water intrusion and coastal erosion are a real problem down here. In Miami beach, the city is replacing water and sewage pipes like crazy because of corrosion.
Also, the beach sand is eroding so fast I wonder how much longer the beach will last. Everyday I see the earth movers on the beach trying to fight it. We’ve been importing sand from the Bahamas for years now. After the oil and money run out to keep doing that, the beach will be mostly gone in less than two years. Hanging on to Miami Beach’s sand requires an army of heavy equipment operating 12 hours a day year round and a huge investment.
Lawfish1964 on Tue, 12th May 2015 10:11 am
Got it, JuanP. In Miami, you must grow some awesome peppers! Winter gardening up here is not very productive. I get broccoli, greens and peas, but nothing really gets going until it’s time to do the spring planting, so the broccoli comes out a bit early. The peas produce enough carbs to justify their existence past last frost, but when the time comes to plant whiteacre peas, the English peas are outta here.
On the subject of rising sea levels, did anyone ever consider the fact that one of the two products of combustion of petroleum is water? Burning gasoline ideally produces CO2 and water. Therefore, we are adding as much water to the atmosphere as we are adding CO2. Could that contribute to rising sea levels too?
JuanP on Tue, 12th May 2015 10:34 am
Law, Yes, I grow many different kinds of peppers. I really like growing all kinds of peppers, and my little lot has many pepper plants. There are so many different kinds of peppers and they are all delicious, IMO. Peppers are really cool, they look awesome, they are fun to grow and fun to eat, though some burn going in and coming out. 😉 I am growing dwarf bells, hot and sweet banana, poblano ancho, cayenne, and dragon cayenne at this time.
Davy on Tue, 12th May 2015 11:02 am
Juan/law, planting 40 tomatoes today. Planting several kinds of cucumbers, melons, and watermelon tomorrow. Did an 20 asparagus planting yesterday adding to last years 20. Garden is looking extremely well. We are overwhelmed with strawberries. Going to freeze some, solar dry some, and gorge on them right out of the garden. I have been eating a wide variety of salad types. Onions and potatoes are awesome. Fruit trees, grapes, and blueberries doin well. This folks is in other words happiness because allot has been invested in time and money.
Folks my thought are the most important adaptation and mitigation effort at all levels is food production. Everyone should be involved with this. Even if this happened it would not be enough but it will go a long way to lessen pain and suffering. The sad truth is the transition from fossil fuel agriculture to less or no fossil fuels will be messy. Population must drop significantly. Since this will likely not happen in an organized way do like Juan said in another comment “batten the frighten hatches mates”
Lawfish1964 on Tue, 12th May 2015 11:37 am
Davy, awesome on the tomatoes. I devoted 1 of my 4 main boxes (8 x 12) to tomatoes this year. I had a 100% germination rate again, so started with 40 plants, planted 32 (4 rows of 8) and gave away 8 plants. I have literally several hundred fruits on the vine right now, but the only one that’s turned had an ulcer in it, so I’m still waiting.
I’m trying whiteacre peas this year, which I haven’t done before. Grew a shite-ton of Blue Lake green beans last year so they’re going again. I like to grow food with carbs. Hence my potatoes. If I had the land, I’d grow probably 100 feet each of potatoes, field peas and corn. No corn for me yet. Tried it last year and it was an epic fail.
JuanP on Tue, 12th May 2015 2:16 pm
Davy, I planted a few cukes, cantaloupes, Baby Sugar watermelons, and asparagus these past days, too. I was wondering when I planted the asparagus whether I will still be around when it’s time to harvest them. We planted about a dozen Oaxacan corn plants on shared lots for fun and learning, too. I also dried strawberry slices a few weeks ago, but on an electric dryer.
These are of course very symbolic amounts I am talking about, and while they are not nearly enough to provide enough calories to feed me, I am learning a lot about growing, preserving, and cooking local organically grown food crops.
Davy on Tue, 12th May 2015 2:46 pm
Juan, that is the key found in your last paragraph “learning”. It is cheaper and easier just to go to Walmart. Yet, it is the whole learning process of seed to plant to food then preservation that is the key. I am only at half capacity of what I could do. It is hard work but rewarding. I also recommend to you preppers out there buy any and all equipment you can for growing and preserving grown food. It is great to have for use but also trade and barter.
gdubya on Tue, 12th May 2015 3:06 pm
This week planted 5 acres of pasture grass; 2 acres of wheat, a acre of potatoes,quinoa, peas, beans. 25 tomatoes in the greenhouse. 8 new fruit trees. Kiwi, 2 grapevines.
Spinach harvested replaced with cabbages, mustard, leeks, onions, broccoli. 60 garlic up and a few corn plants ( we are above the alaska panhandle so we should not be able to grow corn, but let’s see what the climate does this summer.
Perk Earl on Tue, 12th May 2015 3:06 pm
“I ripped myself an inguinal hernia kite surfing about two weeks ago and I will be having a surgery probably next week”
JuanP, I had the same thing happen. In my case taking a heavy maple wood credenza down a steep driveway and pop. My surgery was done laproscopically with mesh, as was another guy I know. The other method is to cut from the front. In both our cases there was no residual long term pain, which there can be sometimes if the procedure is done wrong. I have a relative in LA who does have long term pain from a double hernia operation.
The actual surgery is painless but what is difficult afterwards is simple body functions. I could not urinate afterwards and they wouldn’t let me go until I could, but after 1/2 an hour of concentrating I finally did a little. It’s a weird sensation because your body does not want to relax that part of the body because the surgery was so close. Then you’ll find excreting takes place about 3 days later! Take stool softener, but it still isn’t easy.
Make sure to not lift heavy things for a few weeks and then you can gradually lift more weight. Rule of thumb is add 10 pounds a week after surgery. But I’m still careful because I don’t want to go through the recovery period again.
Apneaman on Tue, 12th May 2015 4:08 pm
Perk, thanks for sharing……and ruining my lunch 😉
Apneaman on Tue, 12th May 2015 4:19 pm
Sea Ice Testing New Record Lows as Heat Wave Invades Northwest Territories
“For 2015, it looks as if Arctic sea ice is sitting in some rather hot water.
For from the Chukchi to the Beaufort to Hudson Bay to Baffin Bay and on into the Kara, the edge region of the Arctic Ocean is feeling a very strong melt pressure during early May of 2015. And, according to 7-10 day forecasts, that melt pressure will only intensify. As a result, we could see new record lows for Arctic sea ice extent over the next few days.”
https://robertscribbler.wordpress.com/2015/05/12/sea-ice-testing-new-record-lows-as-heat-wave-invades-northwest-territories/#comments
Davy on Tue, 12th May 2015 4:25 pm
Good job Dub, I bet you are feeling AGW climate change and gardening more than any of us. I hope it is benefiting you. Kelp up the good work.
Davy on Tue, 12th May 2015 4:29 pm
Good luck Juan!
I thought I had a hernia 6 months ago but it was just a stretched muscle. The good part of the whole experience is my nuts are free of cancer per ultrasound.
I feel for you Perk. Sounds like your experience is not for a sissy.
Folks, another important part of prep is get into the doctor while we still have doctors as we know it.
Apneaman on Tue, 12th May 2015 4:46 pm
12 percent jump in homelessness in LA County
The number of homeless people in Los Angeles County jumped 12 percent in the past two years, to more than 44,000
http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2015/5/12/12-percent-jump-in-homelessness-in-AL-county.html
Dredd on Tue, 12th May 2015 6:05 pm
1,025,585,000 Catholics were told that those binging this will answer to God:
“We must do what we can so that everyone has something to eat, but we must also remind the powerful of the Earth that God will call them to judgment one day and there it will be revealed if they really tried to provide food for Him in every person and if they did what they could to preserve the environment so that it could produce this food.” (Pope says environmental sinners will face God’s judgment for world hunger).
You poinson barrel bean counters need to leave either the Catholic Church or leave Oil-Qaeda.
Your choice.
Nony on Tue, 12th May 2015 6:09 pm
He’s a commie pope.
JuanP on Tue, 12th May 2015 6:17 pm
Perk, thanks for sharing! I am having an open surgery with full anesthesia because my hernia is larger than average. When I do #2, I have to put my fingers there to keep my guts in and prevent further damage. It also bothers me when I cough, sneeze, and laugh. I know I will have to be more careful in the future, I have abused my body for too long and it is time to slow down a little. I feel like I’veaged 20 years in ten days. 🙁
Davy, I agree about going to the doc and dentist now, that is why choosing the surgery was a no brainer for me. I know I could probably live with this for years, maybe even forever, by using a support brace to hold my guts in during the day, but there are potential complications, like getting my gut strangled there, that could force me to undergo surgery in less ideal circumstances or even kill me, according to the docs and the research I’ve done.
Apneaman on Tue, 12th May 2015 6:27 pm
Nony’s gonna burn for treating god’s creation as an externality. Say hi to Milton Friedman for me Nony.
Nony on Tue, 12th May 2015 6:42 pm
He’s on a them LATAM commie Christians. Like a Maryknoller.
This is my kinda priest:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Don_Camillo
Davy on Tue, 12th May 2015 7:08 pm
NOo, read this and weep:
“Lasciate ogne speranza, voi ch’intrate”
Nony on Tue, 12th May 2015 7:18 pm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inferno_(Niven_and_Pournelle_novel)
oilystuff on Tue, 12th May 2015 7:42 pm
You are a disgusting human being, Nony. I might ask you how it is that you have so much time with your meaningless life to do nothing more that stalk blogs and insult people, but I understand exactly why. If you did not have that to do, what would you do?
Nothing.
You don’t know jack shit about the oil business, either. I have listened to you for years, you are an idiot.
Blogs that make no effort whatsoever at editing, or censoring, offer the perfect venue for people like yourself. I am actually grateful to peak oil news (however chicken shit they are) to give you this means of expression. I think if you were not pecking away at the computer all day long you would be out on the street stealing purses from little old ladies.
Davy on Tue, 12th May 2015 7:53 pm
Owee NOo, Oily bitch slapped you. NOo, change your life man. Don’t be such a one sided corn. We would love you to contribute fair, balanced, and objective comments. I know I need to improve but you are off the charts in agenda land.
Apneaman on Tue, 12th May 2015 7:59 pm
More Hell burners – the MIC
Pope Francis Criticizes Arms Industry: ‘Powerful People Don’t Want Peace Because They Live Off War’
http://www.ibtimes.com/pope-francis-criticizes-arms-industry-powerful-people-dont-want-peace-because-they-1916992
Nony on Tue, 12th May 2015 8:28 pm
waah!!!!!
GregT on Tue, 12th May 2015 10:39 pm
Nothing less can be expected from you Nony.
If you were my child you’d get a good ass kicking until you learned some respect.
Apneaman on Tue, 12th May 2015 11:04 pm
It’s not just California: the whole Southwest is facing a growing water crunch
http://www.vox.com/2015/5/12/8593707/lake-mead-water-arizona
gdubya on Tue, 12th May 2015 11:42 pm
Re: California water crisis, gardening.
I have been advising our local gardeners & small farmers to plant extra the past couple of years due to the California food supply.
Practicing my preaching, I’m not even aware of what the produce prices are since the only food we bought last year was fruit from a small local vendor – and some avocados. I’m gonna miss them.
You guys are making me nervous after lifting a ton of deadfall today including 2×100 kg trunks. I guess it’s time to learn to use a chainsaw!
Northwest Resident on Wed, 13th May 2015 1:32 am
Hey guys, cut Nony some slack. Sure, he’s a smart ass Mr. Know-It-All who seems to possess a list of industry-generated factoids but has no understanding whatsoever of the big picture. And yes, he is frequently confrontational and rude. And definitely, he often appears to have no other objective than being pugnacious and disruptive. But hey, the Nony persona keeps it relatively light and humorous and leaves all the heavy-duty insulting and obnoxious behavior to his sock puppets. I mean, that says SOMETHING about Nony, doesn’t it?
Nony on Wed, 13th May 2015 2:24 am
I’m not as annoying as Richard Sherman.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wl4ViIwy7KA
Davy on Wed, 13th May 2015 6:11 am
Sorry NOo, I have been trying to give you tough love but sometimes it is just mean. I like you boy but if you could moderate just a small amount it would make your whole message more believable. Even the extremist Dave the Doomer is open to moderation when I see good reason for it. You can discount peak oil dynamics but not deny it. In most cases you are in complete denial. Anyway, I do enjoy reading your technicals on finance and oil.
Kenz300 on Wed, 13th May 2015 7:24 am
The least educated people have the most children…
The poorest people have the most children………
conversely
The most educated people have the least children……..
The wealthiest people have the fewest children……………
Hhhhhhhmmmmmmm seems to be a trend here………
Lawfish1964 on Wed, 13th May 2015 12:15 pm
JuanP, good luck with that surgery. I would have general anesthesia for a tooth cleaning if I could. I keep my teeth clean, clean, clean, because I hate, hate, hate going to the dentist.
Apneaman on Wed, 13th May 2015 1:37 pm
Queensland drought spreads to a record 80 per cent of the state
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-05-13/qld-drought-spreads-to-record-80-per-cent/6467438
Apneaman on Wed, 13th May 2015 2:42 pm
Christian Parenti on Climate Change, Militarism, Neoliberalism and the State
“So, it’s a perfect example of this catastrophic convergence: The landscape is littered with guns, hammered socially by increasingly market-fundamentalist politics, and at the same time, natural systems are beginning to buckle and break as climate change starts to accelerate.”
http://www.truth-out.org/news/item/30666-christian-parenti-on-climate-change-militarism-neoliberalism-and-the-state#
Apneaman on Wed, 13th May 2015 2:45 pm
Worst drought in 1200 years drains America’s biggest reservoir
“If it gets much lower – and with summer approaching and a dwindling snowpack available to replenish it, that looks likely – official rationing will begin for Arizona and Nevada. The hydroelectric output of the Hoover dam (below), to which the lake owes its existence, could also suffer. Water restrictions are already in place in California, but some hydrologists say rationing there must start soon to avert disaster.”
http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22630202.400-worst-drought-in-1200-years-drains-americas-biggest-reservoir.html#.VVOpL_AV1NE
Apneaman on Wed, 13th May 2015 2:46 pm
Scientists: Earth Endangered by New Strain of Fact-Resistant Humans
http://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/scientists-earth-endangered-by-new-strain-of-fact-resistant-humans
Hubbert on Wed, 13th May 2015 2:48 pm
Water crisis is pretty much everywhere these days.
Iran is going to look very ugly when they run out of water in few years.