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Why The Collapse Of The U.S. Economic & Financial System Has Accelerated
By the SRSrocco Report,
The collapse of the U.S. economic and financial system accelerated this year, thus pushing the country closer to a third-world status. Most Americans are unaware of the dire consequences facing the nation, so they continue to believe business as usual will continue indefinitely.
Unfortunately, lousy reporting by the Mainstream media along with the public’s denial and delusional thinking is a recipe for disaster for most Americans over the next several years.
The U.S. economy is being propped up by a great deal of monetary printing, Fed stock and bond purchases and extreme leverage in all areas of the market. While these policies have given the “ILLUSION” of continued prosperity, or at best a sustainable slow growing economy, the debt now in the system is unsustainable.
Still to this day, most investors (including precious metals investors) do not understand the real reason for the massive increase in U.S. Federal debt. They believe the debt was either increased to enslave Americans or to fund continued economic growth. While the second reason is more accurate, they still fail to understand the “ROOT CAUSE” of the debt increase.
The Massive Increase In U.S. Debt Tied To Falling U.S. Oil Production & Rising Oil Prices
This chart puts the huge increase in total U.S. debt in perspective:
The annual increase in U.S. debt was very small up until the 1970’s. This was due to the peak of cheap U.S. domestic oil production. U.S. oil production peaked in 1970 at about 10 million barrels per day (mbd). That year, total U.S. debt was $370 billion. That’s hilarious, because the annual deficits today are larger than the entire U.S. debt in 1970.
As the oil price increased in the 1980’s and as U.S. oil production declined, total U.S. debt continued to increase. However, in the late 1990’s, the U.S. debt leveled off. This was due to the price of oil declining below $20, reaching $14 in 1998 and $19 in 1999. In 1999, U.S. debt had increased to $5.4 trillion.
Then as the price of oil increased from $30 in 2000 to nearly $100 in 2008, total U.S. debt nearly doubled to $10.5 trillion. In addition, U.S. domestic oil production declined nearly 4 million barrels per day from 1985 to 2008. This also had a negative impact on U.S. debt levels.
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While it’s true that the cost of energy is only a small part of U.S. GDP, its impact is multiplied when the U.S. economy and government try to provide the same standard of living as it did prior to 1970. Furthermore, the EROI- Energy Returned On Invested of U.S. oil production declined significantly since the 1950’s. The EROI of U.S. oil and gas production in 1970 was 30/1, however shale oil comes in at a low EROI of 5/1.
Thus, the falling EROI means less profitable barrels to provide the same (higher) standard of living as Americans enjoyed before 1970.
The U.S. Economy Is Propped Up By Massive Govt Spending
In fiscal 2015, the United States Govt. (supposedly) spent $3.8 trillion on mandatory, discretionary funding and interest on the debt. Total revenues were only $3.18 trillion, so the U.S. Govt had to borrow $583 billion to pay its bills:
These next two charts break down the “Mandatory” and “Discretionary” spending:
The $3.8 trillion in U.S. Govt spending is 21% of total U.S. GDP for fiscal 2015. Even though the U.S. Govt spends a lot of money on many different areas, let’s focus on Social Security and Medicare-Health. These two parts of the mandatory spending equal $2.2 trillion of the $3.8 trillion total Federal budget. This is nearly 58% of the total budget.
That $2.2 trillion spent in the U.S. economy has a “MULTIPLIER EFFECT”. This is the reason the Fed and U.S. Govt won’t allow a collapse in stock, bond or real estate values. The revenues collected by the U.S. Govt depend on elevated stock, bond and real estate prices. Once these start to collapse, then revenues plummet causing the annual budget deficit to balloon higher. If the budget deficit was $583 billion (that’s what the Govt reports) in 2015 ,then what happens when the market cracks and highly inflated stock, bond and real estate prices collapse?
Well, we already experienced that in 2008. Here is the most recent update of the U.S. Retirement Market as of Q1 2016:
The total U.S. Retirement Market collapsed 21% from 2007 to 2008 ($17.7 trillion down to $13.9 trillion). The current U.S. Retirement market is valued at $24.1 trillion. When the U.S. broader markets finally crack, I forecast a 50% decline in the U.S. Retirement market in the first wave. This could take place over a few years. A 50% decline would put the U.S. Retirement market at $12 trillion, a little less than what it was in 2008.
This is highly likely as the markets have been propped up with a lot of leverage since 2009. A 50% decline in the stock and real estate prices will cause serious trouble to the entire U.S. economy and financial system.
…… THIS IS THE CRASH WE NEVER COME OUT OF.
U.S. Financial & Economic Market Suffered Two Big Blows
As I mentioned in the beginning of the article, ENERGY has been the key in pushing the U.S. debt to record levels. Now, you would think that the huge increase of domestic U.S. shale oil production would have helped stabilize the annual increase of U.S. debt….. IT DIDN’T. Actually, it did the opposite.
Unfortunately, the addition of U.S. shale oil production came at a huge cost. It only added more overall debt to the system. Even though the price of oil remained above $100 for three years, most of the shale oil companies made no real profit. Which means, the increase of U.S. domestic oil production from 5 mbd in 2008 to a peak of 9.6 mbd last year, did nothing to keep the U.S. debt from rising.
This was due to two reasons:
1) The U.S. Govt continued to print money while suffering even larger annual budget deficits to provide a standard of living for Americans that it really couldn’t afford.
2) The EROI- Energy Returned On Invested of U.S. shale oil production of 5/1 was way too low to sustain our modern economy that needs something north of 12/1.
While the situation for the United States became even worse as domestic oil production surged higher, the consequences will be even more dire as oil production plummets over the next several years.
Top Two Shale Oil Fields Suffer Hugh Production Losses
The top two shale oil fields in the U.S. suffered huge production losses over the past year… especially over the last six months.
The Bakken Oil Field in North Dakota was touted to make the U.S. energy independent. While the author of this article never believed the hype by the U.S. Energy Industry, many Americans fell for this delusion. As the price of oil declined on top of exceedingly high decline rates, Bakken oil production has dropped significantly.
How much??
If we go by the minimum production between August 2014 and December 2015, the Bakken is down 137,000 barrels per day (bd). While the Bakken achieved a much higher production peak, I am going by the minimum oil production achieved in that time-frame.
Thus, the Bakken will now lose 4.1 million barrels of oil in a month and 50 million barrels in a year compared to what it was producing last year. A loss of 50 million barrels in a year from the North Dakota industry is a BIG DEAL. That being said, the Bakken will continue to lose production going forward so the annual production loss will be even greater than 50 million barrels. At $50 a barrel, North Dakota is losing $2.5 billion a year.
NOTE: A small part of the Bakken is located in Montana, but this doesn’t really change the overall situation for North Dakota all that much.
Now, if you think the loss of production from the Bakken is bad, you need to take a look at the disaster taking place at the Eagle Ford Field in Texas:
The Eagle Ford has lost 300,000 barrels per day since its minimum production between Aug 2014 and Dec 2015. That’s one hell of a lot of oil. In Dec 2015, the Eagle Ford was producing 1,508 thousand barrels per day (1.508 mbd) and is forecasted to decline to 1,212 thousand barrels per day in June. This is a 20% decline in six months.
Thus, the Eagle Ford will now lose 9.1 million barrels of oil per month and a whopping 110 million barrels annually. Again, this is only if production stabilizes. That figure continues to increase as Eagle Ford production continues to decline.
While some individuals believe the decline in U.S. shale oil production was due to falling oil prices, this was only part of the reason. According to the energy analysts that I have been reading, these two shale oil fields were going to peak between 2015-2017, even with higher oil prices. So, yes… the low oil price forced the peak a little sooner than later.
What happens as U.S. shale oil production continues to decline?? Well, it puts more pressure on the U.S. energy sector that is saddled with debt up to their eyeballs. Here is a chart I published in one of my articles a few weeks back:
If the U.S. Energy sector is paying about 50% of its operating profits just to pay the interest on its debt (2015)… WHAT HAPPENS AS OIL PRODUCTION DECLINES?? Correct… it just makes a bad situation WORSE.
Americans have no clue the dire situation they face. No longer will we be able to offer U.S. Treasuries in the future for oil. Of course, this won’t end overnight, but the trend is not on our side.
The healthy U.S. economy and financial system in the 1950’s-1960’s was powered by its cheap domestic rising oil production. This is why we were the powerhouse of the world. However, as the years went by and domestic oil production declined as prices increased, we were forced to use the ENERGY CREDIT CARD.
While this worked for many decades, the ENERGY CREDIT CARD BALANCE now is unsustainable. The decline of U.S. shale oil production will speed up the demise of the U.S. economy and empire.
If Americans haven’t connected the DOTS by purchasing physical precious metals, the majority of their supposed wealth will EVAPORATE into thin air. Even though owning precious metals doesn’t guarantee an individual will make it through the coming economic and financial collapse unscathed, it will at least offer better options than 99% of the Americans out there.
57 Comments on "Why The Collapse Of The U.S. Economic & Financial System Has Accelerated"
penury on Sun, 3rd Jul 2016 9:35 am
While the facts may be correct, this turns out to be a solicitation to buy “precious metals” but the hype is only half true.
Kenz300 on Sun, 3rd Jul 2016 9:41 am
The top 1% want it all….. and the RepubliCON party will give it to them………..
What do RepubliCONS believe…….. depends who is paying….. follow the money……. fossil fuels….. oil, coal, natural gas…, nuclear, NRA………the top 1%
Are RepubliCONS the real EVIL DOERS………..they want to end Social Security, Medicare and access to contraception…….
RepubliCONS are the reason the middle class is shrinking…… in the past the top 1% wanted to import all the cheap labor they could get ……… now the people are finally waking up but they do not realize they have been conned by the RepubliCONS……….
The RepubliCON elite want cheap labor…………They are no friend of the middle class
eugene on Sun, 3rd Jul 2016 9:51 am
Half true sounds bad enough. I don’t think there’s any doubt we’re headed for “something”. Many opinions as to “what” but “something”. The one statement I think is very true is the ignorance of Americans. It appears to me we have a blind faith the situation is solvable and somebody else will solve it. Government, technology, something so we can all go on living our comfortable lives. Part of me understands this. When you don’t know what’s coming, what do you prepare for? And there are many opinions about that ranging from EVs, solar, wind to go small/local. I’m past the age of “doing something” but understand the fears, etc that’s out there. So does Trump clearly. Course in his case, he’s sees an opportunity if he promises safety, security, wealth and fame.
Northwest Resident on Sun, 3rd Jul 2016 10:21 am
“It appears to me we have a blind faith the situation is solvable…”
There isn’t really a “we” in America, not when it comes to blind faith in government or financial elite solving problems. But still, I get the drift of the comment. Perhaps “the vast majority” would be a better substitution for “we”.
Or, more likely, the vast majority simply don’t think about it. They are incapable of seeing beyond the small bubble of concerns and perceptions that regulate their daily lives.
That first FRED chart depicts a devastating reality. The linkage between oil depletion and global economic woes is undeniable. That linkage, to spell it out, is that massive debt has been substituted to compensate for insufficient energy. As cheap and easy to produce oil depletes, debt must rise to pull future consumption into the present, just to keep the appearance of “all is well” viable. Interest rates must be artificially suppressed to keep the accumulated debt from crushing government budgets, while at the same time those suppressed interest rates lead to epic economic distortions, misallocations and millions of ticking time bombs spread throughout the tightly interconnected global economy.
Those ticking time bombs have started exploding. Oil price plunge: BOOM! Shale company bankruptcies: BOOM, BOOM! Chinese currency devaluation: BOOM! Crashing trade worldwide: BOOM! Brexit: KA-BOOOOOM!
That’s just a few of them. Wait until the rest go off. (tick, tick, tick…)
JuanP on Sun, 3rd Jul 2016 10:21 am
There is no doubt in my mind that things are getting worse faster everywhere, including the USA, but I have no time to read this today because I am going to three parties. I might even get high today!
Northwest Resident on Sun, 3rd Jul 2016 10:39 am
JuanP deciding “fuck it”, I’m going to get high. BOOM!!!
🙂
onlooker on Sun, 3rd Jul 2016 10:58 am
Well said Northwest. The financial system is like a zombie alive but dead. It has lost all connection to reality. It is being propped up by massive collusion by all parties knowing they are all now is a Gigantic Ponzi scheme and that whomever blinks first will unleash an Avalanche of negative outcomes for all. As you aptly said Kaboom! At the center is the Black hole of Debt which is sucking everything and everyone inside it. We lived via Bank lending and so we will die. As they say live by the sword die by the sword.
marmico on Sun, 3rd Jul 2016 11:12 am
Srocco is clueless about private finance, public finance and energy.
Energy expenditures relative to GDP in 2015 were the 4th lowest since data was first collected starting in 1970. The only lower expenditure ratio years, and that is by a smidgen, were 1998, 1999 and 2002.
http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/pdf/sec1_17.pdf
Northwest Resident on Sun, 3rd Jul 2016 11:18 am
So true, onlooker. Live by debt — die by debt.
I really like this article by SRSrocco. I posted a link to this article here yesterday I think, or day before. It sums up our situation and how we got here nicely. Kind of like an “Intro To How Fucked We Are”, versus an in-depth documented research. In other words, basic enough for even the most dense to comprehend, almost…
Boat, are you reading this?
The PTB back in 1970 were faced with a major and no doubt difficult decision, but in reality they had no choice. The decision was, do we live within our means, which would by its very definition mean a significantly lower level of consumption (and technological advancement and military superiority) in America, or do we go for “the gold” and keep the good times rolling by putting it all on the credit card.
As I have speculated a few times on this forum, my guess is that back in 1970 the PTB were so enthralled with technology and what they believed was a guaranteed source of unlimited energy in soon-to-be-developed fusion technology, they decided to roll the dice and go for it all.
They bet the farm. And they lost. Now there is going to be hell to pay.
If the whole world could have agreed to start living within its means back in 1970, what a different world it would be today. But of course greed and over-optimism and big dreams and speculative forces won out over sound logic and a respect for nature.
And here we are today. But hey, it was one hell of a wild ride up, wasn’t it?!
Anonymous on Sun, 3rd Jul 2016 1:45 pm
More faked statistics. That chart with so-called ‘discretionary spending’, claims that empires spends 54%, or 598b on war. In reality, its much higher. A little over a trillion. This Zio-hedge article totally glosses that fact, actually, it doesn’t just gloss it over, it completely ignores it. When you compare that the paltry sums going to transportation, education, food and ag its not hard to see why the empires ‘homeland’ is falling apart. Or why the bulk of its doped up residents are widely considered world-class imbeciles.
Nor do charts do tell even part of the story. 122b for agriculture under ‘mandatory’ spending. Sounds good right? With money like that, amerika should have a world class food system, no one goes hungry, and safe, chemical free food for everyone right? LOL!, No. Most of that 140b goes to subsidizing for-profit corps that produce shit ‘food’ that makes you sick and hungry. And so it goes…
But hey, keep spending that trillion a year on ‘defence’ (giggle), and spreading freedom-fries and democrakracy around the world. The more you spend on war, and less on education, health, environment, and infrastructure, the sooner amerika will collapse and hopefully leave the world alone for once.
shortonoil on Sun, 3rd Jul 2016 2:13 pm
We have been commenting for more than a year that the Etp Model informs us that the world will never again be able to consume all of the oil that is produced. The energy to produce it is now greater than the energy it delivers to the remainder of the economy. Petroleum inventories will never again come into balance with consumption. That will provide continued long term downward pressure on the price until producers can no longer afford to produce oil.
Rising demand, as recently reported by the EIA, has been presented as the primary reason why that will not happen. The rising demand may very well be an illusion:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-07-03/americas-soaring-gasoline-and-oil-demand-was-just-illusion-how-eia-fooled-algos
Failing petroleum companies, and failing Petro States will only help to accelerated an already failing economic, financial system!
http://www.thehillsgroup.org/
onlooker on Sun, 3rd Jul 2016 2:16 pm
NWR,history is replete with nations and empires that have overextended themselves with debt and in the process damaged their environments and overshot their carrying capacity. Debt having the pernicious effect of creating monetary inflation with the over circulation of money with consequent asset deflation
penury on Sun, 3rd Jul 2016 2:34 pm
The U.S. has created what they (tptb) consider “magic’. All of the debt is corralled by the Fed Res at zero interest and then written off as if it never existed. The Fed is the owner of approx 90 per cent of the mortgage market, and with reverse POMO own more than half the stock market. Countries with Tres Bills coming due must settle for a new bond as the Treasury has no cash. even with 20 trillion in debt the interest paid is not significant.
Go Speed Racer on Sun, 3rd Jul 2016 3:03 pm
But Kenz, you say the Republiscams are the evil ones. Do you think Hillbillary is somehow less evil than John Boehner and Mitt Romney?
Ha, they want me to buy precious metal. Since I am ex-middle-class, they will have to give me precious metals instead.
shortonoil on Sun, 3rd Jul 2016 4:17 pm
“Countries with Tres Bills coming due must settle for a new bond as the Treasury has no cash. even with 20 trillion in debt the interest paid is not significant.”
The interest paid may not seem significant, but the impact of world wide central bank printing, and ultra low, to negative, interest rates is very definitely. Money no longer has an increasing future value with zero percent rates, and it is losing its present value with negative rates. This is no where more apparent than in the velocity of money. The velocity of money is slowing rapidly. The velocity of money peaked in 1998 at 2.2 and is now at 1.46 (a historical low). When money stops flowing, there is by definition, no more economy.
Printing fiat, and keeping interest rates low to service debt that can not be repaid has no effect when the underlying cause is a declining resource base. It is merely a smoke screen to keep the population as complacent as possible, for as long as possible. It is being done to keep power structures in place, although they can not be maintained indefinitely. It does a great injustice to the vast majority. It camouflages the risks at hand, and prevents most from preparing for what is to come. It is a form of societal suicide to befit a very few for a very brief period of time.
Northwest Resident on Sun, 3rd Jul 2016 5:28 pm
short, I would argue that “buying time” IS the benefit to society. I for one am thankful that they bought time after the 2007/8 near global collapse, because at that moment I was totally unaware and totally unprepared. Maybe they are giving as many people as possible a chance to become aware and to prepare. And, while I seriously doubt that is the main objective to their buying time, it is a side benefit to those who manage to recognize what is going down and prepare for it in whatever way they can. The main objective, I suspect, is to implement their own plans for dealing with the oncoming collapse, and I also suspect that those plans are detailed, complex and global in scope, and that they need all the time they CAN buy to move their chess pieces into place. We’ve seen many of their moves — authorizing the military to conduct operations on American soil to protect government property and to aide/take control of local governments in the event of civil unrest, locking down and analyzing all digital communications, authorizing Federal government to take control of critical industry in the event of national emergency, militarizing the police and other government agencies, etc… And those are just the preparations that we know about. No doubt, there are major movements under way, being conducted behind the scenes. Until proved wrong, I also believe that the U.S. government and the elites that run things are making their preparations with the goal of preserving as much of the status quo as possible, including their positions in it, which means they’re going to need to preserve the peace and maintain order to the maximum extent possible. My guess is they are racing against the clock to get as much preparation done as possible, knowing full well that they are going to run out of time before they manage to work their way down the list of priorities, probably knowing full well that they could run out of time at just about any moment.
makati1 on Sun, 3rd Jul 2016 5:49 pm
NWR, ‘they’ are preparing to take total control of you, after they have drained all of your financial blood and freedoms. They are preparing for THEIR future, not yours. But, they will fall with you.
I think you give ‘them’ too much credit for intelligence and foresight. They may be making an attempt, but it is not possible to prevent the total collapse and extinction event coming. How do you prepare for a 4C hotter world? Answer: you don’t/can’t.
Screw the financial system. That is minor compared to the real problems in our future. Prepping is good to ease the pain, but, in the long run, it will not save us. We went over the ecological cliff decades ago and the only way is down.
Happy 4th if you are American! Enjoy it. The US may be in lock-down by next 4th of July.
richard schlinder on Sun, 3rd Jul 2016 6:07 pm
This is an amazing and disturbing report for America. This just another sector ready to collapse.The more time goes on and the these type of reports come out,the more I feel vindicated by leaving the states ten years ago. If anyone wants to know,I would be glad to share my plan that I have been living for ten years. It’s working.No subscription ,no cost. Just a plan of a homesteader/survivalist in a foreign country. richardspenthouse@yahoo.com.
kiven aberham on Sun, 3rd Jul 2016 7:16 pm
here is the major problem. American jobs and our mortgage tie to a house for 30 years.
our jobs don’t last for 30 years anymore. selling a home is gambling with the unknown future.
rent and rental are expensive. try to raise a family on a bet that your job will be there.
we need to start engineer new life style for this new American nomadic job life. to raise a child in this hire fire world of temp job is a nightmare for our future. not to mention our retirement.
wishington will not help any American. our so call democracy is a joke. new plans must be set. or else there will be a hitler to change this country, that’s not a threat. that’s history repeating itself.
Davy on Sun, 3rd Jul 2016 7:23 pm
If anyone want to know how to not leave the US and do fine just ask. There is no reason to leave your family and friends. In fact I see it as an honor to stay and help them and protect them. The dangers are global and to claim this is only an American story is just plain rubbish. The grass is not greener elsewhere. There are trade-offs. Anyone claiming there is not trade-offs is selling snake oil.
Go Speed Racer on Sun, 3rd Jul 2016 7:45 pm
If the velocity of money gets too high, they will issue a ticket.
So that national debt graph does look nasty, cause Oblahblah doubled it during his 8 years, 10 Tril to 20 Tril. Ya know, a trillion here, and a trillion there, and eventually it adds up to real money.
Now Obama and the libs, did have the Bush Jr Great Recession to cope with, and they spent their way out of that. Basically the $10 Tril is due to the republican bankster swindlers. Figure they stole about 10 Trillion, cause ya know the old school of stealing a few million, that is just so passé.
But that much stealing also crashed the whole economy, which Bush Jr blamed on Obama, except that Obama had not become President yet.
So when Obama became prez, he spent another $10 Tril to try an get the economy going again. So who did he give all that money to? Certainly not to you and me. Gave it to the same bankster swindlers who stole all the money in the first place. So figure the bankster swindlers got the original $10 Tril they stole, plus another $10 Tril that Obama gave them. So figure the bankster swindlers got $20 Tril altogether or about as much as the whole national debt. Cause you need to steal that much if you want to have a big house, a big yacht, your own airplane, and a well stocked wine cellar.
onlooker on Sun, 3rd Jul 2016 7:47 pm
” The grass is not greener elsewhere. There are trade-offs. Anyone claiming there is not trade-offs is selling snake oil.” Yes, every place now is beset with its own unique set of problems. The entire planet is set to pass through an increasingly smaller bottleneck as resource/environmental constraints are set to impose a die-off collapse dynamic. This dynamic will reverberate hard and wide across the entire planet and a world population who for the most part are not prepared or equipped to deal with it
Apneaman on Sun, 3rd Jul 2016 8:22 pm
“Maybe they are giving as many people as possible a chance to become aware and to prepare.”
Are you fucking serious?
Sure they have their emergency plans and no one has more plans, mountains of plans, than the American government. They are tripping over their plans and their server farms full of data. Why would anyone think these plans will work? Cause it always does in the movies(there’s your decades of subtle propaganda)? Take a look at how the government (this includes the military) is currently functioning. Is it a peak efficiency with all employees sound of mind and spirit and working together like a well oiled machine or is a fucking mess of corruption, incompetence, apathy, careerism run wild and bureaucratic bloat the likes of which the world has never before seen? Not to mention really expensive too. If you correctly chose the latter then their is no reason to believe all these agencies are going to instantly switch over high efficiency mode when TSHTF like it has never hit before. What you see now is what you will get except it will be them attempting to operate in a chaotic environment, so you can expect an even bigger clusterfuck. Oh sure they will be able to enforce some control, but who knows how much and for how long.
Wild Man on Sun, 3rd Jul 2016 9:22 pm
The chart on spending says it all. And then you have the Bernie people believing you can spend more and not be in trouble. BS. We are living the Obama or socialist economy right now. Obama created this income gap by screwing the middle class and lower class with his O Care. For every 400,000 companies created, 477,000 are going out of business. The climate to start a company SUCKS (period)! This happens in a socialist economy. wages suffer.
Truth Has A Liberal Bias on Sun, 3rd Jul 2016 9:52 pm
You folks are complete fucking morons. I don’t know where to begin. Shorts model is complete fucking garbage, Davy is a fucking goof, I’m hard pressed to find a commenter on this board who isn’t a complete fucking retard.
makati1 on Sun, 3rd Jul 2016 10:27 pm
For an example of the Us government efficiency … look at New Orleans 10+ years after Katrina.
makati1 on Sun, 3rd Jul 2016 10:31 pm
Onlooker, “…a world population who for the most part are not prepared or equipped to deal with it”
I would offer that there are several billion humans that will hardly notice the economic collapse or the end of the Empire. They deal with survival everyday. It is the spoiled Western world and their wannabees, that will feel the most pain because they are used to not having any pain or medicating it away. THAT is where the real die off will happen.
JuanP on Sun, 3rd Jul 2016 10:53 pm
THALB, You really add a lot to the conversation. If only we had more people like you here the quality of the comments would be at a whole other level. LOL!
Apneaman on Mon, 4th Jul 2016 1:38 am
Truth, tell us all about your ammo stocks again. Did you learn the need to do that from watching “Doomsday Preppers” on NatGeo? C’mon tells us how many rounds you have now – it gets more impressive every time I hear it. You a hero.
yoshua on Mon, 4th Jul 2016 2:58 am
Kuwait Oil Company looks to solar oil extraction
The days of easy oil are over with about 70% of the world’s remaining reserves classified as heavy.
The country began importing liquefied natural gas more than six years ago and Glasspoint estimates that using LNG to fuel these Enhanced Oil Recovery projects could cost up to $13 per million British thermal unit.
Despite last week’s slight rebound in oil prices to $50 per barrel, the two-year slump from highs of more than $110 have put a dampener on spending across the oil-rich Arabian Gulf.
theedrich on Mon, 4th Jul 2016 4:13 am
So, we’re trying to outrun diminishing returns. Like trying to outrun old age. As reluctant as one may be, one has to agree with Anon. The criminality at the top exceeds all historical records, and it is by no means limited to the “RepubliCONs.” It helps to remember who has been in power the last seven years, as well as who is now taking YUGE bribes not just from pseudo-Republican, Trump-hating Wall Street but from every generous foreign government seeking to contribute to a certain Foundation that of course does so much good for Afroids and other hemorrhoids.
We really have nothing to worry about for the rest of the year: the enthroned product of affirmative action and the dynast awaiting “her turn” will make sure to keep the American coma going. In 2017 we can expect our borders being eliminated and our conversion into a police state run by narcotraffickers and trillionaires. In other words, the cliff.
At this point in ancient Rome, the dominant billionaires assassinated their populist dictator, Julius Caesar (one of their own number), and set in motion a chain of events which led to a 500-year long dictatorship replete with unremitting bloodbaths, especially among the elites — to say nothing of constant wars. Given the global scope of regime failures today, we may be facing something much worse.
P.S.: did THALB ever pass the first grade?
onlooker on Mon, 4th Jul 2016 5:35 am
“I would offer that there are several billion humans that will hardly notice the economic collapse or the end of the Empire. “Yes they’re is some validity to that but keep in mind Mak that many of people are importing surplus derived from fossil fuels and that many places in the poor overpopulated South are fast reaching critically low aquifer and well levels from over pumping. And as u know Mak climate change is and will hit the South the hardest and the most soon
onlooker on Mon, 4th Jul 2016 5:37 am
but keep in mind Mak that many of the people are importing surplus food derived from fossil fuels
JuanP on Mon, 4th Jul 2016 5:50 am
Russia’s oil exports headed for an all time record in 2016 and Russia’s oil production has grown every month for a while according to Bloomberg,
Tinyurl.com link,
http://tinyurl.com/ja2pv4o
JuanP on Mon, 4th Jul 2016 6:30 am
Thee “The criminality at the top exceeds all historical records, and it is by no means limited to the “RepubliCONs.”
I agree with you on this one, Thee! The Democrats are at least as corrupted as the Republicans. I think The USA’s “democracy” could use a third party since the only two it has are completely and thoroughly corrupted. I don’t think the Repugs or the Dempukes can be fixed, they need to be replaced. Obama must go! Anyone but Hillary! I never thought I would prefer a Republican candidate, but I like Trump better than I like Hillary, and I think he would make a better US President, too!
makati1 on Mon, 4th Jul 2016 6:44 am
onlooker, I would submit that most of those few billion do not eat anything imported. I speak from experience here in the Ps. They cannot afford imports.
Oh, the city folk do enjoy imports and the major grocery stores are maybe 60% imports but that is in the more affluent neighborhoods, not a general rule. I would submit that it is mostly the tourists, and foreign management type workers who consume the imports that they are used to at home. Not the native Filipinos. At least that is my observations here. And most of the tourists and management type foreign workers will be gone when the SHTF.
If your income is say P3,000- P4,000 per week, (average non management) and imported ground beef is P360/kilo. How much beef do you think their family eats? Or a 14oz can of corn from the US at P59? Weigh that against a kilo of rice at P35 or fish at P80, both local. What do you think they eat? (P350 = ~US$7.50)
I do not know what may be the case in other countries, but I still think that many will not notice any real changes until it affects all of us equally near the end. You do not miss what you never had.
Davy on Mon, 4th Jul 2016 6:47 am
There will be no immunity from collapse. This is especially true on the level of food production. Many regions are in a state of overpopulation. There may be pockets of subsistence farming but the use of “subsistence” is deceptive. These areas have remained uneconomic to the industrial agriculture machine. They survive by being below the radar screen. This does not mean they are necessarily without risk. If their nearby locals collapse they will surely face migration pressures. Many of these subsistence farmers still are connected to globalism for consumer goods. If their crops fail they currently have an option to move to a city for work. They may end up in a slum but it is still a survival option.
If a collapse comes many subsistence farmers will see nearby population areas a danger. This is true for rich and poor alike. In the rich west where we have off the grid farmers and survivalists the same issues are present. This phenomenon is delocalization of sustainable locals. This has been one of the most insidious aspects of globalism. Globalism has destroyed vital resilience and sustainability for the same reasons in the both developed and developing world. Everyone has embraced technology and efficiency over traditional well proven older ways by choice or not. The conventional modern ways are forced on everyone by the force of economics. These older ways were simple but robust because they had to be. In the past people did not have the luxury for complexity and energy intensity. Today the options to avoid the modern ways have become difficult to embrace. This is tragic because we are gutting our survival options because of the drive for profit.
The other issue affecting these so called unaffected subsistence farmers is climate change. Many of these farmers are among the most at risk. Climate change will be the most disruptive at least initially to the least connected. This is mainly because they have less options to the unfavorable weather. They have little savings to draw on to adapt and mitigate. Many subsistence farmers are in the worst affected regions for climate change
The rich world will feel the heat of collapse. This is obvious and without argument. Take away the basics like food deliveries, reliable electricity, and liquid fuels and the results will be catastrophic. I see little reason to believe poor farmers will be above these issues. We are all in this devolution of global civilization together. The poor will likely experience the worst sooner. This has always been the case. The poor are sacrificed because they have few voices and the resources to help themselves.
onlooker on Mon, 4th Jul 2016 6:52 am
So let me get it straight Mak, the agriculture system in the Philippines has not been incorporated into the Green Revolution, modern industrial agricultural system? They do not use artificial fertilizers and pesticides?
Well Informed on Mon, 4th Jul 2016 7:00 am
The federal gubbermint continues to print money to pay for everything it promised to all the voters. But…no one want to pay for it. The Social insecurity program, Medicare, Medicaid eat up most of gov. spending. Social security if ripe with fraud….such as bennys paid to those that never paid into the system and illegal aliens. I see a potential massive US gov. bond default, or massive inflation episode coming. Regardless of who wins in November. I personally will vote for Trump, Hitlary is too much of a crooked liar.
The charts of oil production only show part of the problems. Buying silver and gold will help lessen the blow of inflation in the future but….metals are tough to buy goods with and if high inflation comes back then a barter economy may be what is produced.
onlooker on Mon, 4th Jul 2016 7:27 am
The other reason the Green Revolution was adopted in most of the world is simply to be able to feed everyone but as many of us are now aware, we are maintaining our huge world population in unsustainable ways
Davy on Mon, 4th Jul 2016 7:45 am
Onlooker, we need to rename the green revolution the green death.
onlooker on Mon, 4th Jul 2016 7:51 am
Apt name Davy haha
shortonoil on Mon, 4th Jul 2016 8:27 am
“Shorts model is complete fucking garbage, Davy is a fucking goof, I’m hard pressed to find a “”commenter”” on this board who isn’t a complete fucking retard. “
Interesting comment from a guy that can’t count of 21 without taking off his shoes and socks and dropping his pants?
Next week we expect you to present your solution to Zeno’s Paradox, and the Newtonian Mechanics three body problem. Why do people who have never done anything, and can’t do anything feel qualified to criticize what they don’t understand, and can probably never understand. Where does this desire to wallow in complete total ignorance, and incompetence come from? You are the epitome of why we have problems that we are not going solve!
Truth may very well represents the future of our civilization. A festering mass of ignorance, entombed in its own bile, intolerance, and disgust!
makati1 on Mon, 4th Jul 2016 8:33 am
The green revolution was a sales gimmick for big ag. Nothing more. The Ps uses fertilizers, but I suspect that they can manage with the ones they always used. Manure, fish, etc. You can grow crops without the chemical companies help. It is just a bit harder and takes skill. Something most American farmers are lacking now. Industrial farms will be the first to go. Home gardens and small farms will survive.
davy on Mon, 4th Jul 2016 8:34 am
Short, when loosers attack you it is a good indication your message has traction. THLB, has one acceptable comment in 10. Maybe eventually the guy will contribute instead of taking up space.
Davy on Mon, 4th Jul 2016 8:37 am
Makati Bill, can you explain armed guards guarding rice supplies a few years back. The P’s are very much at risk of food shortages. This is well known. All of Southeast Asia is at risk.
makati1 on Mon, 4th Jul 2016 8:39 am
BTW: in a balanced ecosystem, you do not need fertilizers or pesticides. Nature makes her own, if you know how to use them. Permaculture is the right direction. But you will not grow millions of bushels of wheat to sell that way. You can grow enough to survive and share.
When the population is still 30%+ in farming(Ps), food in not a problem. When it is less than 5% (US), and you rely on corporate farms, it is.
Davy on Mon, 4th Jul 2016 9:12 am
There is no place on earth food is not a problem now that there is overpopulation and climate change.
ghung on Mon, 4th Jul 2016 9:31 am
Eugene asks; “When you don’t know what’s coming, what do you prepare for?”
You prepare for living on less, and make arrangements to do so (Greer’s collapse now and avoid the rush). Those whose lives are structured around high levels of consumption, lots of travel, long supply chains, complex financial schemes, specialisation, etc., will be unable to provide for themselves the basic necessities.
Those that have their necessities covered and have a broad range of general skills will be free(er) to adapt to those unknowns. Those who don’t will be scrambling to avoid debtors’ prison, or for their next meal.
No jobs here. Keep moving!
joe4 on Mon, 4th Jul 2016 10:06 am
Are you people kidding me? Can’t you see the goal here is to divide and concur all the nations of the world. The hope for mankind? Republican/democrat/Christian/muslin/black/white/china/mexico/America/Greece are all divisions being manipulated to widen the world into a destructive WAR for the globalist (singular) dream of reducing the populations to preserve more of the natural resources for his (singular) heritage. It is all designed to usher in that ONE global dictator, anti-Christ who will become the modern day Nimrod and reunite the remaining world into a common goal (language), so he may become worshipped as GOD. For when you see these things come to pass, your ONLY salvation is to hold on to your FAITH if you can! For the globalist dictator’s GOAL is to wrench your soul from salvation by getting you to willingly relinquish your faith. He can’t steal it from you! He has to persuade you to voluntarily give it up! One third will perish by WAR and one third by famine and pestilence and unless CHRIST return, NO MAN SHALL SURVIVE because SATAN wants to destroy ALL. Faith IS OUR ONLY HOPE OF SALVATION FROM THE TRIBULATIONS THAT MUST COME IN ORDER FOR THE TRUE CHRIST TO SAVE THE WORLD (reappear)!