What does a peak in per capita demand mean for global energy?

A new World Energy Council report, called “The Grand Transition”, has found that global per capita energy demand will peak before 2030. The prediction is nothing short of historic, given that world energy demand has more than doubled since 1970.

What accounts for the shift?
According to the document, released just prior to the start of the World Energy Congress in Istanbul, “unprecedented efficiencies” created by new technologies and energy policies will precede the 2030 demand peak. Efficiency gains will be made through the spread of energy-efficient generation methods, as well as the impact of IoT integration. Put simply, growth in renewable energy, and ‘smart’ technologies for managing this capacity, will lead to a lower per-person demand for energy.

How will it happen?
Conversion rates are higher for renewable forms of energy generation, like wind and solar, which means that less energy is required from the primary source. In 2014, solar and wind accounted for 4 percent of global generation, but the report anticipates that this figure could rise to 39 percent by 2060.

It’s also thought that demand for electricity will double to 2060 and that meeting this demand will require “substantial infrastructure investments and systems integration”.

And what about fossil fuels?
The report posits three scenarios for energy use: the first forecasts that the fossil fuel share of primary energy will drop to 70 percent by 2060, with the remaining two predicting 63 percent and 50 percent, respectively.

The report does not produce a definitive prediction for peak oil production. Two of the scenarios see oil reaching its apex in 2030 at either 103 million barrels per day or 94 million barrels per day. The third scenario contains a more conservative estimate in which the fossil-fuelled status quo persists until oil production plateaus at 104 million barrels per day between 2040 and 2050.

In order to shield markets from the economic impact of fossil fuel divestment, the World Energy Council says that “carefully weighed” exit strategies must be in place “or the destruction of vast amounts of public and private shareholder value is unavoidable”.

Energy Digital

11 Comments on "What does a peak in per capita demand mean for global energy?"

Davy on Thu, 13th Oct 2016 7:51 pm

More technology and efficiency bullshit. Yes, some of it is but lets consider that the global population is growing at the same time the economy is stagnating. Could that have something to do with it? Right.

penury on Thu, 13th Oct 2016 10:12 pm

Their forecast is probably as accurate as EIA

Boat on Thu, 13th Oct 2016 10:21 pm

Wind Power Prices Will Go Down In The Future

Researchers found that advances in technology should continue to drive down wind-energy costs by as much as 30 percent by the year 2030. By 2050, the cost could go down by as much as 40 percent.

Lawrence Berkley National Laboratory senior scientist Ryan Wiser said reduced up-front costs and increased output will lead to cost savings.

“Even though wind energy has expanded and deployed significantly in the United States already, there remain a large number of opportunities to further reduce the cost of wind energy in the future,” Wiser said.

If the technology improves Wiser says it will mean bigger turbines, taller towers and longer blades. This could increase land-use issues and threats to wildlife.

Reduced costs will help the wind industry stay competitive with solar and fossil fuels. Wiser also said that even though global price drops have affected oil and gas producers, that’s not likely to happen for wind.

http://upr.org/post/wind-power-prices-will-go-down-future-report-says

Bring on degrowth and negative GDP. The more wind we use the more money we will save.

GregT on Thu, 13th Oct 2016 10:36 pm