However, new technologies for oil and gas exploration and extraction have upended the notion of fossil fuel scarcity: The limiting factor on humans’ fossil fuel use will not be the exhaustion of economically recoverable fossil fuels, but the exhaustion of the Earth’s capacity to withstand the harmful byproducts of fossil fuel combustion.

For decades, energy producers have continually identified new fossil fuel reserves and developed technologies that enable people to economically recover oil and gas from deposits previously deemed too difficult to access. That has enabled cumulative fuel production to greatly exceed previous estimates of reserves. [Earth in the Balance: 7 Crucial Tipping Points]

For example, the Energy Information Administration reports that in 1977, the United States had just 32 billion barrels of proven oil reserves and 207 trillion cubic feet of proven natural gas reserves. Between 1977 and 2010, the U.S. extracted 84 billion barrels of oil (2.6 times the 1977 reserve estimate) and 610 trillion cubic feet of gas (2.9 times the reserve estimate). And, large reserves remain. In fact, in recent years, the size of U.S. reserves has actually grown (by more than a third since 2011), primarily as a result of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing (fracking) technologies that enable economical access to oil and gas deposits trapped in underground rock formations.

Oil companies, gas companies and the federal government collectively invest billions of dollars each year in research and development to create new fossil fuel technologies. The state of the art will continue to advance, enabling economical access to new reserves well into or beyond the 21st century.

There is even the potential for a major breakthrough that enables access to new types of reserves. For example, Japan recently announced that they were able to extract methane from undersea hydrate deposits, a world first. Methane hydrates may contain more than twice as much carbon as in all of Earth’s fossil fuels combined.

Even if no more fossil fuels were to be discovered or deemed extractable, our nations already possess far more reserves and recoverable resources worldwide than we can burn without destroying the climate. Humanity has burned just a small portion of our fossil fuels to date.

Despite having used such a small fraction of our fossil fuels, the planet has already experienced warming of more than 1 degree Celsius. Given the existing infrastructure base and the continuing growth of global emissions, it is no longer feasible to avoid exceeding 2 degrees Celsius, a target the international community has long sought to achieve in order to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.

If we all continue to rely heavily on fossil fuels for our energy supply, climate-change related damages will become very severe long before there is any real pressure on our fossil fuel supply. A transition to a clean energy economy cannot be motivated by a scarcity of fossil fuels — it must be driven by a concerted effort to keep the climate livable and healthy.

10 Comments on "We will not run out of fossil fuels"

Beery on Fri, 21st Jun 2013 1:34 am 



Peak oil is not about scarcity. It’s the PEAK, for goodness sake – that means, BY DEFINITION, that it’s at its MOST AVAILABLE.

What is wrong with these clowns?

socrates1fan on Fri, 21st Jun 2013 1:49 am 



Beery- Discussing the reality of peak oil with some people is a lot like trying to explain algebra to a six year old.

They don’t get it, and when they think they do, they walk around with their misunderstanding and hold it as the truth. They don’t understand peak oil. They don’t understand what it means or its consequences that we feel even today.

Dmyers on Fri, 21st Jun 2013 2:11 am 



I don’t care what technological breakthrough you might bring to bear, you can’t get more than there is. First Law of Thermodynamics.

BillT on Fri, 21st Jun 2013 3:31 am 



Guys, they cannot take an honest look and report on it. The news is not good.

Of course we will not run out of oil. We will run out of money to buy it. That will shut down recovery as quick as anything.

As the energy cost of recovery goes up, the cost of the product will go up. When that number exceeds the number the public can afford, the wells will be shut down. Wither it happens next year or 20 years from now does not matter. But, I think it will definitely happen before 2030.

DC on Fri, 21st Jun 2013 3:45 am 



Its strange how you hear over and over, how ‘tech’ is going to stop PO dead oil in its tracks. Which is doubly strange because what tech actually does, as opposed to what people thinks its for, is to *increase* the rate at which finite resources can be mined\extracted. IoW, technology is wonderful at making finite resources disappear even faster than would ordinarily be the case.

That was Jevons main point, not that building more ‘efficient’ gas-burning cars or jets or w/e exhausts resources faster, but rather, throwing more advanced technologies at resource extraction insures they will be mined out that much faster.

Stephen on Fri, 21st Jun 2013 6:10 am 



BillT,

What is your take on what will society be like after 2030? If you think the oil wells will stop pumping prior to that.

* Everyone live like the Amish (provided they re-learn those skills)?

* Renewable Energy Grid that produces a few hours of power per day?

* A Small town type economy created in the remains of each suburban area?

* Most people abandon the suburbs nd move into apartments in a new urbanism like setting?

* Less dominance or even total Collapse of Corporate America?

* Houses bulldozed into farmland?

* A complete death of capitalism? Perhaps replaced by a different economic system (socialism?, communism?, steady state?, feudalism?, facism?)

* Anarchy?

* Police State?

* Human Population Die-Off?

* Re-distribution of wealth?

* Nuclear War?

* Other?

mike on Fri, 21st Jun 2013 7:32 am 



Stephen I am not BillT but I’ll have a pop with my opinion for shits and giggles.

1) Best case scenario (highly highly unlikely)
* World understands threat of peak oil and climate change
* World begins transition to permaculture
* Some kind of anarcho capitalism or minarchism rises around the world.
3 billion people dead

2) Likely scenario
* A continuation of what is happening now
*more and more riots
*increasing food prices
* rejection of political system
* collapse of system
* brief era of totalitarianism
* followed by neo feudalism
* subsistence lifestyle apart from the elite
*5 billion people dead

worst case scenario (reasonably likely)
* mass collapse
* nuclear power stations meltdown
* radiation covers the planet
* All life on planet destroyed.

fun fun fun

BillT on Fri, 21st Jun 2013 11:20 am 



Thanks Mike. Option #2 with a high possibility of #3 appears to be most likely in my mind.

We cannot live like the Amish, there is not enough land to pasture that many horses/mules AND raise enough food in the US.

No ‘energy grid’ but the possibility of individual home systems for those who think ahead, but even they will be gone when they wear out.

I don’t see cities surviving much beyond the collapse of the electric grids. They are too power hungry for a more agrarian lifestyle. Certainly no build will be occupied beyond the first few floors as there will not be pumps to fill water tanks on the roof or to move elevators up and down.

Capitalism died when the Central Banks were created. I see a feudal/middle ages type arrangement likely.

And yes, a very large population die off even, and maybe especially in the Western world. They are the least likely to have survival skills that will be useful. Can you grow potatoes? Set a broken arm? Pull a tooth?

There will be no need for IT, economists, bankers, travel consultants, pilots, or any other non-productive careers. If you cannot earn your keep, you will not be kept.

GregT on Fri, 21st Jun 2013 3:00 pm 



Mike,

You forgot to add climate change to your list of scenarios. Climate change is the 5 ton elephant in the room.

rollin on Fri, 21st Jun 2013 7:15 pm 



The more ways they find to get oil and other fuels out of the ground, the more it becomes a race between the various disasters as to which will get us. Maybe a mix of four or five at once. We could recover from a single predicament, but not several at once.