US Gasoline Demand Is Surging

36 Comments on "US Gasoline Demand Is Surging"

Speculawyer on Thu, 8th Jan 2015 9:31 pm 



Oh Jeez. Did people go out and buy gas guzzlers? What a bunch of maroons.

GregT on Thu, 8th Jan 2015 10:31 pm 



People clearly have no understanding about what is going on around them Spec……….

dashster on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 5:05 am 



The change doesn’t have to be from changing vehicles. Most of it is probably from driving more.

But I saw a chart that showed people do increase or decrease their buying of lower-mileage vehicles somewhat, depending on current gas prices.

Davy on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 5:31 am 



I see more driving and less of the big car buying influence. We are in truck country here. In rural areas trucks have utility. Farms and small hobby farms need them. What I disapprove of is SOV light duty trucks that these cats run around in with their commute to the city. I have seen that SOV commute situation drop significantly around here with the drop in incomes since 08. IMA, in the long emergency if BAU’s destruction heads in that direction these light duty trucks will have utility as people movers. They will be able to negotiate pothole roads. They will have value as small business vehicles in a more localized environment.

We have not had a long of enough period of low gas prices to draw a conclusion that big cars are being purchased in any meaningful quantity. If demand drops, bankruptcies increase, and unemployment rises we surely will see less big car purchases. We already see the subprime element influencing car purchases. We know how that ends. I will admit in the suburbs the soccer moms may be buying SUV’s more. Many of the other sedan type vehicles have already greatly improved mileage. It is the big SUV’s based upon the truck chassis that are the problem and a hangover from Suburbia.

shallowsand on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 6:27 am 



In my high school days with $1 gasoline, cruising from one end of the small town to the other was a big thing. I noticed this went away. Recently I have seen more kids in their big tired trucks out and about, even though it is winter and has been pretty cold.

Live in a very rural area, so impact is small, but multiply that by all the small burgs in the USA and then consider if there is other increased driving behavior.

The cost of filling up has dropped $50, would think some increase in unnecessary driving.

Another not so good result of the steep drop in oil?

Go Speed Racer on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 7:59 am 



Gas is cheap again. Time to buy a school bus, drive it to work each day. Praise the Lord.

dave thompson on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 8:00 am 



At $2 people can keep the tank full.

eugene on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 8:42 am 



I’ve been a believer of Peak Oil for a long time. I figure this episode is just a temporary blip. Wife and I will be driving a bit extra this summer while the price makes it more affordable. And so will a lot of others. Most of what I read on blogs/comments is opinions which means just somebody’s thoughts and has nothing to do with the reality of people’s behavior.

GregT on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 9:23 am 



“Top 10 vehicles in Canada: Think we’re thrifty? We’re not.”

2013:
Sales of large pickups are up 11.5 per cent so far this year. The best-selling vehicle in Canada is the Ford F-Series pickup, and with sales of 84,557 through the end of August, it is more than twice as popular as the best-selling passenger car, the Honda Civic (41,836).

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-drive/news/trans-canada-highway/top-10-vehicles-think-canadians-are-thrifty-drivers-think-again/article14566186/

2014:

The increase came as light truck sales increased 10.2 per cent to 84,826 compared with 76,949 in November 2013. Car sales slipped 5.3 per cent to 53,868 from 56,911 a year ago.

ht tp://www.cbc.ca/news/business/auto-sales-rise-3-6-setting-november-record-in-canada-1.2858067

3 of the top 4 best selling vehicles in the United States for both 2013 and 2014 were pickup trucks.

2013 2014
#1 Ford F-Series 557,037 559,506
#2 Chevrolet Silverado 382,153 360,775
#3 Toyota Camry 334,978 318,990
#4 Ram P/U 319,868 262,787

Fulton J. Waterloo on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 9:26 am 



Buying larger vehicles? That is EXACTLY what people are doing. The USA Today did an article on the returning “pickemup” mania hitting America. The future “rollercoaster” will be an exciting ride…

rockman on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 9:28 am 



Details from the EIA:

Oct 2014 – 27.0 million gal/day
Sept 2014 – 20.8 million gal/day
Jan 2014 – 18.0 million gal/day (the recent lowest)
Jan 2010 – 53.6 million gal/day
Jan 2006 – 60.2 million gal/day

I don’t give a crap about what any politician/economist says about the US economy getting better the last four years. I consider gasoline consumption to be a very good indicator of the financial health of the country. And consumption fell 66% in 4 years between 2010 and 2014. And that had nothing to do with the improved mileage of the current ROLLING FLEET of cars on the road since that has improved very little over that period.

Look at the gasoline consumption figures from the EIA:

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=A103600001&f=M

The correlation with oil prices is obvious, of course. But it’s also obvious that the slide in consumption (and the economy) began between ’07 and ’08. And if you accept the premise of gasoline prices being a barometer of US economic vitality it’s also obvious that the economy has continued to suffer ever since the collapse in ’08 until a bit of improvement by mid-2014.

If someone disagrees that’s OK. Just explain how a 2/3 decrease in US gasoline consumption in 4 years isn’t due to a weak economy. And again, it can’t be explained by an increase in US fuel efficiency OF ALL THE VEHICLES on the road during that period since that increase was minimal.

GregT on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 9:50 am 



Wow Rock,

Those numbers are alarming!

bobinget on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 10:18 am 



The US is a net oil importer, let’s not forget that for
a second. US imports 7.5 Million barrels a day, avg.
Point of interest: Wyoming uses the most fossil fuels per-capata; 949 BTU’s to New York’s 179 .
In 2011 California used more gasoline then China.

When Canada completes reversing West to East,
no longer needed, gas pipelines in 2016, Canada will, for the first time become ‘energy independent’.
No longer will Canada need to discount heavy oil
South of the Border. No longer will Canada need to
shell out hard currency for imported oil.
Today. Canada IMPORTS roughly half 700,000 B p/d, of Canada’s 1,300,000 B p/d daily consumption.

The US OTOH, will no longer be able to buy discounted Canadian Crude. Currently US imports
107 million Canadian barrels daily.
The US, by 2016 will no longer have access to 253,000,000 barrels of Venezuelan crude daily.
While Ecuador’s exports total under 505,000 B pd
the US will no longer get its mitts on that either.

Tally; at least one million fewer Canadian B’s p/d.
Venezuela & Ecuador figure another 1.5 million loss.

Nigerian, Libyan exports going to Europe despite intense civil wars in both nations.

The US becomes more dependent on ‘New’ OPEC’ members Iraq, Russia and Iran.

Keystone pipeline is a dead letter. Few will morn it’s passage. Rail and several other existing pipelines
made the entire XL project moot. Under current
oil price, oil sands, deep sea, expansions will slow.

Enjoy the Holidays.

bobinget on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 11:42 am 



Autos today are getting double milage they did
in 2001.
Hi-breds, diesels, pure electrics, low rolling resistance tires, no idle engines, lighter, smaller
faster, that’s the word.

Davy on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 11:57 am 



There you go Bobby technology to the rescue. Corn porn me baby.

GregT on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 12:32 pm 



Hmmm that’s strange, my 96 Tacoma still appears to be getting the same milage today that it got in 2001. What’s up with that?

Speculawyer on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 1:10 pm 



“If someone disagrees that’s OK. Just explain how a 2/3 decrease in US gasoline consumption in 4 years isn’t due to a weak economy.”

I think it is largely due to a weak economy. But I do think there are a lot of other factors.
-Fuel economy increase. Yes, the fleet increase has been minimal. But people tend to drive their most recent and most fuel efficient cars the most.
-Urbanization. – Lots of people moving to cities and not driving as much.
-Sharing services – Uber, Lyft, ZIPcar, etc. Lots of people use those new services and thus reduce their need for a car.
-Cultural shift – Kids these days are more enamored with their cellphone than their car.
-Aging population – Retired people drive less.
-Alternate fuels – Plug-in hybrids, natural gas cars, pure electric cars, etc. Small but it does factor in. some 120,000+ plug-in cars sold last year in the USA.

Again, the weak economy is probably the biggest factor but all those other things do add up.

Perk Earl on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 2:05 pm 



So much for ‘Peak Demand’.

Jersey Patriot on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 2:06 pm 



Just explain how a 2/3 decrease in US gasoline consumption in 4 years isn’t due to a weak economy.

This isn’t a chart of total gasoline consumption. It’s a chart of retail sales made by refiners. Other entities besides refiners also make sales.

A better chart of total gasoline consumption is Product Supplied of Finished Motor Gasoline:

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=wgfupus2&f=w

Over the past couple of weeks, Product Supplied of Finished Motor Gasoline has climbed back towards its 2007 highs.

GregT on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 2:39 pm 



I asked everyone a question a couple of days back; Have you seen an increase or decease of traffic in your area over the last 6 years? I didn’t get a lot of response, but the majority of those that did respond said that they have seen traffic increases.

I understand that much of what we perceive depends on our own locales. From my own experience driving in the greater Vancouver area, south to Seattle, and East into the interior of BC, traffic has not only grown, it has grown exponentially. The increase in traffic since I moved into the house that I am currently living in (5 years ago) is the largest increase in traffic that I have witnessed in this region in the past 30 years.

Not only has the traffic increased, but the type of vehicles on the road have also changed. I have never seen such a high percentage of large SUVs and pick-up trucks on my daily commute as what I am seeing today. What was normally a 35 minute drive, now routinely takes me an hour, and if there are any problems on the route, I can be stuck in traffic for at least twice that long. As I sit in ‘my’ truck, stuck in traffic everyday, I can’t help but think of the amount of fuel that is wasted while hundreds of thousands of vehicles sit idling in gridlock. Any fuel efficiency savings are more than made up for by the amount of time spent on the road.

I am sure that other places may be different, but I have spoken with relatives in both Calgary and Edmonton and they tell me the same, and friends that live in Toronto also tell me that traffic has become insane. So maybe somewhere in the world there has been a reduction in traffic, but my personal experience shows the exact opposite.

GregT on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 3:05 pm 



Also of note,

Rush hour 15 years ago was from around 7 to 9 in the morning, and 4 to 6:30 in the afternoon. It now begins to ramp up at 5:30 am, and goes until 8:00 pm. There are lulls during the day, but the lulls are getting much fewer and farther between.

I find this to be indicative of my own personal experience.

Record 1.8 million vehicles sold in Canada in 2014

Chrysler Canada sales were up 12 per cent in 2014 and General Motors sales up six per cent in a year that set a record for Canadian car sales.

Car sales are lower, but surging demand for light trucks helped set a new record of 1.849 million vehicles sold last year.

Ford was the top seller in 2014, with 291,951 new vehicles delivered in Canada, up 2.9 per cent from 283,588 in 2013.

Truck sales totalled 229,603, up from 215,247, while car sales slipped to 62,348 from 68,341. It was Ford’s best year in Canada since 1997.

Chrysler Canada says it set a new record for annual sales in 2014 of 290,004 cars and trucks, up from 260,015 in 2013.

“2014 was a fantastic sales year for Chrysler Canada, in fact, it was the best in our 90-year history,” Chrysler Canada chief operating officer David Buckingham said in a statement.

Chrysler truck sales for the year totalled 255,119, up 20.1 per cent from 212,501 in 2013, while car sales amounted to 34,885, down from 47,514.

In 2014, 63,381 Windsor-built Chrysler, Dodge and Ram minivans were sold, the highest annual sales since 2007. Sales of the Dodge Grand Caravan increased by 11 per cent to 51,759 units sold, up from 46,732 in 2013.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/record-1-8-million-vehicles-sold-in-canada-in-2014-1.2890326

Another telling article from 2013

Here are sobering numbers for those of you drunk with the potential of electric vehicles: the number of people who attended Canada’s biggest EV conference is about the same as the tally of Canadians who actually bought the world’s most popular EV in 2013.

Nissan sold 470 Leaf battery cars in Canada last year, while about 450 delegates, speakers, sponsors, academics, media, trade show visitors, early adopters, truly committed do-gooders, hangers-on with nothing better to do, dreamers, the utterly delusional, and actual EV owners filled out the three-day EV2014VÉ Conference & Trade Show in Vancouver recently.

ht tp://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-drive/culture/technology/heres-the-current-problem-with-electric-vehicles/article21554836/

Anyone who believes that EVs will rule the road are nothing more than delusional.

Apneaman on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 3:11 pm 



GregT

My cousin in Calgary is one of the 2014 new car buyers. My aunt told me her financing is for 8 years. I think that is a more recent option that helps explain the record sales.

GregT on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 3:31 pm 



I agre Apnea,

Zero % down and historically low interest rates as well. That still doesn’t change the fact that people are choosing larger vehicles with poorer gas milage. Exactly the opposite of what I would have expected with such high gas prices, but exactly what I am seeing on the road. If I were to take a guess, the most common single vehicle that I see on a day to day basis would be the Dodge Ram pickup. Which I do find odd, considering the number one top selling vehicle in Canada for several years running has been the Ford truck.

My wife drives a Honda, and I bought another Tacoma, which I rarely drive.

Davy on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 3:53 pm 



I am debating if I will get my last truck of the auto age. I am thinking about the GMC Canyon with the 4 cylinder diesel. They are coming out next year. The gas versions are out now. I need a bigger truck for my cattle operation. My Toyota tacoma is not enough. I am wondering if it is stupid to spend that amount of money this close to a possible collapse. I also wonder if there will be a debt jubilee after a possible collapse. Then I wonder someday if the pretty truck will be sitting in the barn as a curiosity piece. I think this will be the year we know if a collapse is near.

GregT on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 3:56 pm 



Here are some interesting numbers:

According to Stats Can there are 21,261,660 vehicles under 4500 kilos registered in Canada. From the 2013 and 2014 sales numbers above only, there were 2,442,126 light trucks sold in Canada. So more than 1 out of every ten vehicles on the road are pick-up trucks sold in the last two years alone. It would be interesting to see a breakdown of registered vehicles by type overall. I find that a little bizarre.

GregT on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 4:03 pm 



Go big or go home Davy.

Dodge has a 488 cubic inch V-10. I hear they’re great commuter vehicles too! I also ‘hear’ them all of the time as a matter of fact, guys love putting 4 inch pipes on them here.

Perk Earl on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 4:08 pm 



Davy, in answer to your query of a few days ago (which I missed) the traffic seems much greater in our area now, which is the SF bay area out to our rural neck of the woods north of SF a couple of hours drive. In latter 08 and into 09 traffic was the lowest we’d ever seen it and it was a pleasure to drive down into the Bay Area. Now it’s back to the slow and go it always was. In our rural area there have recently in the past couple of months been more traffic than ever.

Seems very odd that with some folks like Gail predicting a major economic dislocation in 2015 or 2016, that things should be ramping up so much.

Davy on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 4:24 pm 



Greg, the GMC may get low 30’s mpg. Sounds too good to be true. I am obsessed with high mpg. I do my commuting back to where my boys live in a diesel Jetta. The Dodge is a fine vehicle and I hear the most fuel efficient in its class.

To be honest I should avoid debt and buy an old truck and use it as needed. Not like a need a new truck to haul hay and cattle. I feel like a hypocrite talking about lower consumption then buying a $35,000 truck.

Northwest Resident on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 4:24 pm 



Perk — Maybe not so odd at all, considering we are very close to “peak everything” — peak oil, peak financial asset bubble inflation, peak propaganda, peak denial, peak stupidity, peak calm before the storm, etc…

The only peaks we haven’t hit yet are peak insanity, peak desperation, peak starvation — peak madness of all kinds.

But we probably won’t have long to wait.

toolpush on Fri, 9th Jan 2015 11:46 pm 



Rockman,

Those figures are for what refiners are selling at the pump. It worked well in the days of the 7 sisters, but refiners don’t sell oil at the pump anymore they sell it to wholesalers and sell unbranded fuel, so these figures don’t measure what we think they are measuring.

In fact your chart says about 20 million GALLONS per day yet from the IEA weekly petroleum, says, 20.2 million BARRELS per day.
http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/pdf/highlights.pdf

GregT on Sat, 10th Jan 2015 2:16 am 



Davy,

I hope you realize that I was kidding about the V-10.

If I were you I would look into a diesel. If/when shit falls apart it is relatively easy to make bio-diesel, and diesel engines last forever.

I wish Toyota diesel pick-ups were available in Canada, I would buy one in a heartbeat. What year is your Tacoma?

Davy on Sat, 10th Jan 2015 7:23 am 



Greg, I was not sure if that was that devilish side of you slipping out with the “go big or go home” LOL. That’s how it was when we were kids. I like diesel because of the reliability and the efficiency. Here on the farm I have at any one time several hundred gallons of diesel in a farm tank. That lends to a good prep position in a liquid fuel shortage scenario.

I already have a diesel Jetta I plan on keeping for my commute car. It is paid off and low cost transport. I love commuting in it with its handling and acceleration abilities. I have two Tacoma’s one is a 2002 4×4 regular cab for adverse weather so I can get around in snow and mud. The other Tacoma is a 1998 2wd regular cab. The 98 is a beater truck for doing my various jobs around the farm. Both have 170K miles and are paid off. If any of you all know Toyotas they will make it another 100K.

For hating the automobile culture I sure have enough of them. I guess because I am technical and each vehicle has a place in the equation is why I have several. If I got a new truck I would trade the 2002 Tacoma in. Anyway, I am not sure at this point if I will buy a new truck. A diesel GMC Canyon that gets low 30’s MPG sounds appealing. Or I will just stay out of debt and buy a used heavy duty truck to haul hay and cattle. In reality I don’t need a large truck all the time and I can borrow one from the neighbor if needed. We swap and trade now as needed.

A part of me as a doomer thinks this may be my last truck purchase. Then I also wonder if a collapse comes if there will be a debt jubilee and the $35K will be a free-be when the bank bellies up and disappears into the digital abyss? “Wishful thinking Davy!” Then I wonder well if a collapse comes we may not be using trucks except in rare circumstances so why buy now. Then I also wonder about my spirituality of low consumption. Is it wrong to buy a new vehicle these days considering what we know about AGW and global wealth inequality? A part of me feels like a hypocrite. I know I am one but how bad of one do I want to be. Anyway the diesel GMC Canyon isn’t out until next year so I have a year for things to fall in place.

GregT on Sat, 10th Jan 2015 12:12 pm 



Buy the best that you can afford, take care of it, and make it last. That has always been the way that I have lived my life.

I may have told this story before, if so, please bear with me.

My brother in law had a Toyota pick-up that he ran hard, I mean really hard. It spent most of it’s life on the backroads of BC, and as a daily commuter between Squamish and Whistler BC. Lots of salt in the winter. When it hit the 300,000K mark, it started blowing blue. We took that truck into the shop that I had at the time, tightened up the front end, changed the rear springs, changed out the U-joints, put a rebuilt engine in her, replaced the front fenders, and slapped on a quick coat of paint. He drove it daily for the next three years, and finally sold it to a young guy in the Lower Mainland. Five years later, my wife and myself were at a gas station on the I-5 in Oregon and in drives the same truck. We went over to talk to the guy and his girlfriend. They had bought the truck from the guy that my brother in law sold it to, and were on their way back to BC after spending a month in the Baja.

I am on my fourth Toyota pick-up. I am absolutely sold on them. Every one that I have had has needed nothing more than brakes, batteries, tires, exhaust, and oil changes.

Davy on Sat, 10th Jan 2015 1:12 pm 



Amen Greg, Tacomas have a cult following because of the reliability! I wonder how the new ones are holding up Toyota has been skimping on quality in recent years.

GregT on Sat, 10th Jan 2015 2:45 pm 



Ya Davy ,

I hear ya. I bought a new one in 2013. No problems yet, but that should be expected, it only has 4800KM on it. Time will tell. I hope the new Tacomas hold up to their reputation. I highly suspect that this will be the last vehicle that I ever own.

Davy on Sat, 10th Jan 2015 3:16 pm 



Greg, the newest Tacoma look really nice. I just wish they had them in diesel. I have a friend that put 90K miles on a 2013 and traded it and had no problems at all. Good luck