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Page added on March 10, 2014
UN warns food security a risk to Asia-Pacific
The world must increase its food production by 60 percent by mid-century or risk serious food shortages that could bring social unrest and civil wars, the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said on Monday.
Demand for food will rise rapidly over the next few decades as the world population surpasses 9 billion and increasingly wealthy people improve their diets, consuming more calories, said Hiroyuki Konuma, the assistant director-general of FAO Asia-Pacific, as the body launched a one-week regional food security conference in Ulan Bator.
But as the need for more food increases, the world is spending less and less money on agricultural research, causing many scientists to doubt whether food production can keep up with demand growth.
“If we fail to meet our goal and a food shortage occurs, there will be a high risk of social and political unrest, civil wars and terrorism, and world security as a whole might be affected,” said Konuma.
The challenge is especially demanding in developing nations, which need to boost crops by a staggering 77 percent, he said.
The Asia-Pacific would be left with more than half a billion chronically hungry people even if the region meets its millennium development goal of cutting that number to 12 percent of the population, he said.
Despite progress made in fighting global hunger, the world still has 842 million undernourished people, according to FAO, of which nearly two thirds live in the Asia-Pacific. One in four children under five years old are stunted due to malnutrition.
The U.N. body outlined two main options: increase arable land areas and boost productivity rates. But available arable land is almost fully exploited, and production growth rates have been lackluster for the past two decades.
During the green revolution in the 1980s, productivity rates for rice and wheat increased by 3.5 percent annually, but for the past 20 years the rate has been stuck at 0.6 to 0.8 percent.
The growth rate needs to be stable at around 1 percent if the world is to have a theoretical chance to avoid serious shortages, said Konuma.
Water scarcity in big food-producing nations like China is worsening, and many farmers are increasingly tempted to shift production from food to bioenergy, a popular option to cut emissions of climate-changing greenhouse gases.
Climate change is worsening the situation, as more frequent extreme weather events devastate crops. In the past three years, Australia, Canada, China, Russia and the United States have all suffered big harvest losses from floods and droughts.
Cost is an additional threat to food security, according to the U.N. body. High and volatile food prices restrict poor people’s access to food, while high crude oil prices inflate production costs.
7 Comments on "UN warns food security a risk to Asia-Pacific"
Northwest Resident on Mon, 10th Mar 2014 5:29 pm
“… the world is spending less and less money on agricultural research…”
As if technology could solve the food problem IF ONLY the scientists could get more money for agricultural research. THAT is a totally false premise.
I love these articles that talk about how many extra billions of people we will have in the next several decades, and how much oil and food and electricity will be required to maintain those extra billions along with all the existing billions in the manner to which they have become accustomed. The sad joke is that we’ll never make it out of this decade with extra billions, much less being able to maintain the billions that we already have. Reason why: Not enough oil at a price that makes it worthwhile to extract and deliver. We’re running on fumes right now, metaphorically speaking, and there is no gas station in sight. We are destined to run out of gas along the side of the road out in the middle of the wilderness, and it is going to be one hell of a long walk to get to anywhere from there.
I watched an interesting program last night with Neil Tyson, the astrophysicist. In that program, the entire 13.X billion years of the universe’s existence was divided up into a 365-day calendar. In that calendar, recorded human history appears only in the last minute of the last day of the year, and human technological advancement occurs only in the last second of the year. Human civilization as it exists today is nothing but a flash in the pan, a little spark shooting out of the fireplace that disappears almost immediately. In the grand scheme of things, human civilization is less than insignificant. Amazing to contemplate.
Davy, Hermann, MO on Mon, 10th Mar 2014 6:36 pm
Dito, NR, the food and population projections at this point are so far-fetched all I can do is laugh. Food and population go hand and hand. If nothing else population growth will hit a brick wall in a steep descent. A prediction on population would be fool hardy other than it cannot rise much more if at all. Food production growth will be history soon. Food production is already plateauing with world food stocks as a buffer the lowest in memory. We are very close to widespread famine and or food insecurity. It only takes a few droughts in the wrong places with some other “black swan” and it is bad doodoo. This will affect the developed world also. The developed world cannot decouple from this coming food insecurity like it used to. As the wealth transfer continues and government welfare state apparatus crumbles the developed world poor will suffer significant hardships.
Are you out there Makati, Whatcha say about this article? Does it Jive at all with your Asian Utopia you force feed me on a regular basis? I guess you will tell me because it came from Reuters it is another case of the TPTB MSM snow balling us. Nothing so serious that China or Asia can’t manage this right? Sorry, Makati, big issues ahead for China, India, and East Asia!
bobinget on Mon, 10th Mar 2014 7:04 pm
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-26428418
J-Gav on Mon, 10th Mar 2014 10:00 pm
Sorry Makati, I don’t want to speak for you but I think there’s a little misunderstanding here between you and Davy.
I don’t remember Makati ever saying anybody was going to get off easy in the coming transition, Asians or elsewhere. He has talked about local traditional communities likely faring better than those who are used to having much more ‘stuff,’ but, all in all, I’d say he’s more pessimistic than I am about anybody’s chances of squeaking through unscathed. So, Davy, to keep it short, I don’t see him believing in any miracles anywhere.
As for the food shortages, those who think they will be magically spared, wherever they live, may be in store for a rude awakening. I can do without sugar but not salt, vitamins or protein. And I humbly admit I have no plan B, at least not in anything close to deployment stage, so I’m not playing the lesson-giver here …
GregT on Tue, 11th Mar 2014 1:44 am
“Water scarcity in big food-producing nations like China is worsening, and many farmers are increasingly tempted to shift production from food to bioenergy”
Definitely none of this happening here in North America.
“In the past three years, Australia, Canada, China, Russia and the United States have all suffered big harvest losses from floods and droughts.”
Forgot about Mexico, Central and South America, Europe, and Africa.
“High and volatile food prices restrict poor people’s access to food, while high crude oil prices inflate production costs.”
No poor people in North America, and no inflation in food prices due to crude oil prices.
Yup, problems everywhere but here. We’ll be just fine. 🙄
Makati1 on Tue, 11th Mar 2014 3:02 am
I agree totally, NWR.
As for the “Asian Utopia” Davy, I don’t see it being any worse that that which will be experienced everywhere else, even in MO,USA.
Thanks, J-Gav for understanding my position. Maybe I am a bit more pessimistic about the future, but that is how I see it. If it turns out to be not that bad, I will be pleasantly surprised and thankful on behalf of my kids(4), grand kids(12) and great grand kids(2 so far). But, I do not see anything changing until we are forced to change and then it will be too late.
I’ll take my chances here in the land of eternal summer. At least I will not freeze to death or starve, but coconuts, bananas, coffee, chocolate and cassava may get a bit boring. I will have the advantage of going up on the roof of our concrete house (85 meters above the sea level), look out over the Pacific, read one of my growing library of books and sipping my coffee. ^_^
Feemer on Tue, 11th Mar 2014 9:14 pm
Water becoming more scarce is certainly a huge problem, and it’s not limited to developing countries. I live in Colorado (US) and we have been in a perpetual drought for over a decade. Winters each year produce dryer and less snow. Compared to when I grew up, each winter the mountains have less and less snow. Our low snow pack has been causing water shortages in the states along the colorado and Rio Grande Rivers. Food is definitely going to becoe more scarce and expensive, including in developed countries. Grow a garden, get a rain water collection system!